Last 58 / Last 200 / Last 246 / Last 297

[sveumrules]

The Brewers low point of the season so far was on April 25th. After losing to the Pirates in extra innings their record dropped to 13 W - 13 L. Since then, their 40 W - 18 L record is the best in MLB.

The Brewers low point of last season was on May 17th. After getting shutout by the Twins they were all the way down at 21 W - 25 L. Since then, over their last 200 games, their 129 W - 71 L record is the best in MLB.

But we don't even need all that. Even with their worst somewhat recent-ish stretch of play included, going all the way back to the start of the 2025 season (246 total games), their 150 W - 96 L record is the best in MLB.

Heck, if we want to stretch it out even further, and roll the clock all the way back to August 6th of 2024 the Brewers 181 W - 116 L record is the best in MLB (by 1/2 game over the Dodgers) over their last 297 games.

Below are how some of their category results and rankings have changed over each of those stretches. I'm by no means saying the Brewers results over their last 58 games are indicative of their elusive True Talent Level as a team (few teams in MLB history have been .690 W% good for a full season) but I think it's pretty clear from these numbers in varying degrees of micro, plus the year over year improvement going all the way back to 2022 in the macro, (not to mention one of thee most highly regarded minor league systems in MLB), that even with all the recent success the arrow is somehow still pointing upward.

RS/G
297 (5.03 | 4th)
246 (5.04 | 3rd)
200 (5.24 | 1st)
58 (5.29 | 1st)

wRC+
297 (106 | 7th)
246 (106 | 6th)
200 (111 | 2nd)
58 (112 | 3rd)

Batting Average
297 (.254 | 3rd)
246 (.257 | 2nd)
200 (.263 | 1st)
58 (.265 | 1st)

On Base Percentage
297 (.331 | 2nd)
246 (.335 | 1st)
200 (.341 | 1st)
58 (.343 | 1st)

Isolated Slugging
297 (.149 | 20th)
246 (.144 | 26th)
200 (.150 | 24th)
58 (.153 | 20th)

BB%
297 (9.7 | 3rd)
246 (9.7 | 4th)
200 (9.8 | 2nd)
58 (10.2 | 3rd)

K%
297 (21.4 | 10th)
246 (20.6 | 5th)
200 (20.3 | 3rd)
58 (20.8 | 9th)

GroundBall%
297 (45.4 | 1st)
246 (45.8 | 1st)
200 (45.6 | 1st)
58 (47.0 | 1st)

xwOBA
297 (.315 | 17th)
246 (.316 | 14th)
200 (.321 | 8th)
58 (.325 | 6th)

Actual wOBA
297 (.322 | 6th)
246 (.323 | 5th)
200 (.331 | t-1st)
58 (.335 | 3rd)

RA/G
297 (3.82 | 1st)
246 (3.82 | 1st)
200 (3.68 | 1st)
58 (3.31 | 1st)

ERA
297 (3.49 | 1st)
246 (3.51 | 1st)
200 (3.36 | 1st)
58 (3.10 | 1st)

xERA
297 (3.66 | 1st)
246 (3.67 | 2nd)
200 (3.51 | 1st)
58 (3.07 | 1st)

FIP
297 (3.78 | 1st)
246 (3.78 | 2nd)
200 (3.64 | 1st)
58 (3.38 | 1st)

K%
297 (24.8 | 1st)
246 (24.7 | t-1st)
200 (25.6 | 1st)
58 (28.2 | 1st)

K/BB Ratio
297 (2.84 | 7th)
246 (2.78 | 8th)
200 (2.96 | 5th)
58 (3.23 | 4th)

HR/9
297 (1.04 | 5th)
246 (1.02 | 4th)
200 (0.99 | 2nd)
58 (0.96 | 3rd)

Batting Average
297 (.224 | 1st)
246 (.224 | 1st)
200 (.220 | 1st)
58 (.206 | 1st)

WHIP
297 (1.20 | t-2nd)
246 (1.21 | 5th)
200 (1.18 | t-1st)
58 (1.11 | 1st)

LOB%
297 (75.5 | 1st)
246 (75.4 | 1st)
200 (76.1 | 1st)
58 (78.2 | 1st)

HardHit%
297 (38.2 | 2nd)
246 (37.9 | 1st)
200 (37.4 | 1st)
58 (34.3 | 1st)

Barrel%
297 (7.4 | 3rd)
246 (7.3 | t-1st)
200 (7.2 | 1st)
58 (5.9 | 1st)

Run Differential Per Game
297 (+1.21 | 1st)
246 (+1.22 | 1st)
200 (+1.56 | 1st)
58 (+1.98 | 1st)

[brewerfan82]

Not good enough.

[Jopal78]

24 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

The Brewers low point of the season so far was on April 25th. After losing to the Pirates in extra innings their record dropped to 13 W - 13 L. Since then, their 40 W - 18 L record is the best in MLB.

The Brewers low point of last season was on May 17th. After getting shutout by the Twins they were all the way down at 21 W - 25 L. Since then, over their last 200 games, their 129 W - 71 L record is the best in MLB.

But we don't even need all that. Even with their worst somewhat recent-ish stretch of play included, going all the way back to the start of the 2025 season (246 total games), their 150 W - 96 L record is the best in MLB.

Heck, if we want to stretch it out even further, and roll the clock all the way back to August 6th of 2024 the Brewers 181 W - 116 L record is the best in MLB (by 1/2 game over the Dodgers) over their last 297 games.

Below are how some of their category results and rankings have changed over each of those stretches. I'm by no means saying the Brewers results over their last 58 games are indicative of their elusive True Talent Level as a team (few teams in MLB history have been .690 W% good for a full season) but I think it's pretty clear from these numbers in varying degrees of micro, plus the year over year improvement going all the way back to 2022 in the macro, (not to mention one of thee most highly regarded minor league systems in MLB), that even with all the recent success the arrow is somehow still pointing upward.

RS/G
297 (5.03 | 4th)
246 (5.04 | 3rd)
200 (5.24 | 1st)
58 (5.29 | 1st)

wRC+
297 (106 | 7th)
246 (106 | 6th)
200 (111 | 2nd)
58 (112 | 3rd)

Batting Average
297 (.254 | 3rd)
246 (.257 | 2nd)
200 (.263 | 1st)
58 (.265 | 1st)

On Base Percentage
297 (.331 | 2nd)
246 (.335 | 1st)
200 (.341 | 1st)
58 (.343 | 1st)

Isolated Slugging
297 (.149 | 20th)
246 (.144 | 26th)
200 (.150 | 24th)
58 (.153 | 20th)

BB%
297 (9.7 | 3rd)
246 (9.7 | 4th)
200 (9.8 | 2nd)
58 (10.2 | 3rd)

K%
297 (21.4 | 10th)
246 (20.6 | 5th)
200 (20.3 | 3rd)
58 (20.8 | 9th)

GroundBall%
297 (45.4 | 1st)
246 (45.8 | 1st)
200 (45.6 | 1st)
58 (47.0 | 1st)

xwOBA
297 (.315 | 17th)
246 (.316 | 14th)
200 (.321 | 8th)
58 (.325 | 6th)

Actual wOBA
297 (.322 | 6th)
246 (.323 | 5th)
200 (.331 | t-1st)
58 (.335 | 3rd)

RA/G
297 (3.82 | 1st)
246 (3.82 | 1st)
200 (3.68 | 1st)
58 (3.31 | 1st)

ERA
297 (3.49 | 1st)
246 (3.51 | 1st)
200 (3.36 | 1st)
58 (3.10 | 1st)

xERA
297 (3.66 | 1st)
246 (3.67 | 2nd)
200 (3.51 | 1st)
58 (3.07 | 1st)

FIP
297 (3.78 | 1st)
246 (3.78 | 2nd)
200 (3.64 | 1st)
58 (3.38 | 1st)

K%
297 (24.8 | 1st)
246 (24.7 | t-1st)
200 (25.6 | 1st)
58 (28.2 | 1st)

K/BB Ratio
297 (2.84 | 7th)
246 (2.78 | 8th)
200 (2.96 | 5th)
58 (3.23 | 4th)

HR/9
297 (1.04 | 5th)
246 (1.02 | 4th)
200 (0.99 | 2nd)
58 (0.96 | 3rd)

Batting Average
297 (.224 | 1st)
246 (.224 | 1st)
200 (.220 | 1st)
58 (.206 | 1st)

WHIP
297 (1.20 | t-2nd)
246 (1.21 | 5th)
200 (1.18 | t-1st)
58 (1.11 | 1st)

LOB%
297 (75.5 | 1st)
246 (75.4 | 1st)
200 (76.1 | 1st)
58 (78.2 | 1st)

HardHit%
297 (38.2 | 2nd)
246 (37.9 | 1st)
200 (37.4 | 1st)
58 (34.3 | 1st)

Barrel%
297 (7.4 | 3rd)
246 (7.3 | t-1st)
200 (7.2 | 1st)
58 (5.9 | 1st)

Run Differential Per Game
297 (+1.21 | 1st)
246 (+1.22 | 1st)
200 (+1.56 | 1st)
58 (+1.98 | 1st)

I don’t think the issue is whether the Brewers are good or not. Of course they are.
 

The real question is  whether their formula of pitching/defense and grinding out at bats with below average power is capable of surviving in October when margins are thinner, bullpens are shortened and they face fewer pitchers who they can simply outlast.  So far history hasn’t been kind to the Brewers in that regard. 
 

 

 

[owbc]

9 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I don’t think the issue is whether the Brewers are good or not. Of course they are.
 

The real question is  whether their formula of pitching/defense and grinding out at bats with below average power is capable of surviving in October when margins are thinner, bullpens are shortened and they face fewer pitchers who they can simply outlast.  So far history hasn’t been kind to the Brewers in that regard. 

I'd argue that the current postseason format gives a huge reward to the 1-2 seed, so those regular season wins are worth more than they were prior to 2022 in terms of increasing our chances of having postseason success. 

I'd argue that our past postseason failures have mostly been a combination of bad starting pitching and bullpen meltdowns. 

Even looking at last year's pitching matchups vs. LA makes one want to poke their eyes out:

Ashby/Priester vs. Snell
Peralta vs Yamamoto
Ashby/Miz vs. Glasnow
Quintana vs. Ohtani

[sveumrules]

12 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I don’t think the issue is whether the Brewers are good or not. Of course they are.

The real question is  whether their formula of pitching/defense and grinding out at bats with below average power is capable of surviving in October when margins are thinner, bullpens are shortened and they face fewer pitchers who they can simply outlast.  So far history hasn’t been kind to the Brewers in that regard. 

The Brewers power numbers have been trending up since Chourio and Vaughn returned to the lineup...

2023 (.146 ISO | 28th)
2024 (.155 ISO | 18th)
2025 (.145 ISO | 25th)
thru May 3rd (.115 ISO | 29th)
since May 4th (.160 ISO | 15th)

Last year's Blue Jays had a .162 ISO that ranked 12th in MLB.

History so far is of increasingly less relevance as the Brewers demonstrably improve season over season.

This is the 8th full season of the Brewers postseason run going back to 2018.

The Dodgers won 33 more games than the second best team in MLB from 2013 to 2019, they won zero World Series over those seven years. They broke through in the 2020 weirdened season, then needed four more full seasons to finally win a World Series in their 11th try after a 162 game season.

The OG Daddy Warbucks Yankees have been to (& lost) one World Series in the last 15 full seasons since their 2009 WS win.

When it takes the two franchises with more built in advantages than anyone else a decade plus to win (or lose in the Yankees case) a World Series after a full season, the Brewers being in the 8th year of their current window is another sign to me that despite all their recent success they are still just getting started.

[Jopal78]

25 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

The Brewers power numbers have been trending up since Chourio and Vaughn returned to the lineup...

2023 (.146 ISO | 28th)
2024 (.155 ISO | 18th)
2025 (.145 ISO | 25th)
thru May 3rd (.115 ISO | 29th)
since May 4th (.160 ISO | 15th)

Last year's Blue Jays had a .162 ISO that ranked 12th in MLB.

History so far is of increasingly less relevance as the Brewers demonstrably improve season over season.

This is the 8th full season of the Brewers postseason run going back to 2018.

The Dodgers won 33 more games than the second best team in MLB from 2013 to 2019, they won zero World Series over those seven years. They broke through in the 2020 weirdened season, then needed four more full seasons to finally win a World Series in their 11th try after a 162 game season.

The OG Daddy Warbucks Yankees have been to (& lost) one World Series in the last 15 full seasons since their 2009 WS win.

When it takes the two franchises with more built in advantages than anyone else a decade plus to win (or lose in the Yankees case) a World Series after a full season, the Brewers being in the 8th year of their current window is another sign to me that despite all their recent success they are still just getting started.

It’s kind of my point. When they run up against a team in the playoffs whose starting pitchers pound the zone, limit mistakes while pitching 28 2/3 innings out of a possible 36, it’s kind of the kryptonite to grinding out at bats, applying pressure with speed and creating runs on the base paths, etc. 

Meanwhile, outside the Miz, the Brewers have a cadre of SPs who average 5 innings a start and they rely heavily on bullpen arms so they have to use them all in high stakes playoff series even the low leverage ones.

It’s an unfair system.  it doesn’t get much better following the Milwaukee Brewers in the regular season, but in the playoffs, this version of David is not  likely to slay Goliath no matter how good the slingshot technique is. 

 

[Thurston Fluff]

36 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

It’s kind of my point. When they run up against a team in the playoffs whose starting pitchers pound the zone, limit mistakes while pitching 28 2/3 innings out of a possible 36, it’s kind of the kryptonite to grinding out at bats, applying pressure with speed and creating runs on the base paths, etc. 

Meanwhile, outside the Miz, the Brewers have a cadre of SPs who average 5 innings a start and they rely heavily on bullpen arms so they have to use them all in high stakes playoff series even the low leverage ones 

If it was just about facing better pitching in the playoffs being kryptonite to our style of offense wouldn't it show up when facing them in the regular season? Anecdotally, Paul Skenes probably doesn't think so but it would take a comprehensive analysis to know for sure. Is there any study someone can point to showing we perform worse against great pitching than other types of offense? Personally, I think a team that scores runs all year is as likely to score runs in the playoffs regardless of the way they scored said run.

 

 

[Thurston Fluff]

1 minute ago, Thurston Fluff said:

 

 

 

 

[igor67]

I believe to summarize sveum's point, there is not enough data to statistically test your theory of playoff success. While there have definitely been some teams that have gone on mini dynasty type runs in MLB. There have been 15 different World Series Champions in the 2000s. Only 5 teams have more than 1 championship in those 25 years. So there is a lot of evidence that there is a lot of randomness in playoff success.

[Playing Catch]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

It’s an unfair system.  it doesn’t get much better following the Milwaukee Brewers in the regular season, but in the playoffs, this version of David is not  likely to slay Goliath no matter how good the slingshot technique is. 

So what you are saying is, is that Sveum's stat-slinging will never find a sample stone big enough to convince a giant to change their mind?

[Underachiever]

56 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

If it was just about facing better pitching in the playoffs being kryptonite to our style of offense wouldn't it show up when facing them in the regular season? Anecdotally, Paul Skenes probably doesn't think so but it would take a comprehensive analysis to know for sure. Is there any study someone can point to showing we perform worse against great pitching than other types of offense? Personally, I think a team that scores runs all year is as likely to score runs in the playoffs regardless of the way they scored said run.

 

 

The Brewers faced a different pitching staff in the postseason. Regular season featured one start by Yamamoto, one by Sheehan, 2 by Kershaw, and 2 by Glasnow. Zero by Ohtani. Glasnow's back-to-back starts against MKE in July were his first two after a three-month shoulder injury, so he wasn't as sharp or stretched out as he was in the playoffs. The relief corps the Dodgers used against Milwaukee during the regular season was Vesia, Trivino, Klein, Yates, Banda, Dreyer, Casparius, and Scott. 

These were the postseason starters: Yamamoto, Ohtani, Snell, and Glasnow. Add in Sasaki out of the BP for three games. That's 31.1 of the 36 innings in the playoffs.