Brewers (Sproat) vs Pirates (Ashcraft): 7/10/26, 5:40pm

[Brandon Glick]

Final series before the All-Star Break!

	SUN	MON	TUE	WED	THU	TOT
Trevor Megill	16	15	0	0	0	31
Jared Koenig	0	0	0	16	0	16
Grant Anderson	16	0	0	26	0	42
Drew Rom	7	0	0	0	0	7
Craig Yoho	0	0	10	0	0	10
Chad Patrick	0	20	0	0	23	43
Abner Uribe	23	0	19	0	21	63
Aaron Ashby	16	0	18	0	22	56

[wibadgers23]

I haven't watched the Pirates much this year but they are certainly better than what their record indicates.  +33 run differential and their offense is much improved.  Gonna be a tough series.

[willie key]

So which game will get rained out or have a three hour delay this weekend 

[MilwaukeeBeers]

The one tonight will most likely have a delay or be postponed. Forecast looks bleak around gametime currently.

[sveumrules]

Every season has its share of ups and downs, so thought it might be interesting to track the roller coaster ride that got the Brewers here to today...

First Ten Games
8 W - 2 L (.800 W%)
6.80 RS/G | 3.80 RA/G
128 wRC+ | 87 ERA- | 100 FIP-

Next Sixteen Games
5 W - 11 L (.313 W%)
3.69 RS/G | 4.69 RA/G
65 wRC+ | 99 ERA- | 84 FIP-

Next Thirty Eight Games
28 W - 10 L (.737 W%)
5.71 RS/G | 3.29 RA/G
111 wRC+ | 72 ERA- | 74 FIP-

Next Ten Games
4 W - 6 L (.400 W%)
4.40 RS/G | 3.60 RA/G
109 wRC+ | 89 ERA- | 101 FIP-

Last Nineteen Games
14 W - 5 L (.737 W%)
4.63 RS/G | 3.42 RA/G
105 wRC+ | 69 ERA- | 84 FIP-

A less granular approach might be just to split the dang thing in uneven halves from when they bottomed out at 13 W - 13 L after their first 26 games compared to what they've done in the 67 games since...

First Twenty Six
13 W - 13 L (.500 W%)
4.88 RS/G | 4.35 RA/G
90 wRC+ | 94 ERA- | 90 FIP-

Last Sixty Seven
46 W - 21 L (.687 W%)
5.21 RS/G | 3.37 RA/G
109 wRC+ | 73 ERA- | 81 FIP-

& just for fun here is how the Brewers most recent 67 games of this year stack up with their final 116 games of last season after starting out 21 W - 25 L...

Last 116 of 2025
76 W - 40 L (.655 W%)
5.28 RS/G | 3.72 RA/G
115 wRC+ | 80 ERA- | 90 FIP-

If the Brewers maintain the .687 W% of their last 67 games over their remaining 69 games they would end up with around 106 Wins.

If the Brewers maintain their seasonal .634 W% over their remaining 69 games they would end up with around 102 Wins.

To have their first 100 Win season if franchise history they would need to go 41 W - 28 L (.594 W%).

To set a new franchise record with 98 Wins they would need to go 39 W - 30 L (.565 W%).

Since Arnold took over the front office in 2023 the Brewers have a .589 W% over 579 games, since Murphy took over the manager's seat in 2024 the Brewers have a .597 W% over 417 games.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, wibadgers23 said:

I haven't watched the Pirates much this year but they are certainly better than what their record indicates.  +33 run differential and their offense is much improved.  Gonna be a tough series.

2025 to 2026 Pirates are a pretty fascinating example of the interplay between hitting, fielding and pitching.

2025 Pirates Position Players
82 wRC+ (29th) | 3.60 RS/G (30th)
+32 DRS (10th) | +9 FRV (12th)
2025 Pirates Pitchers
88 ERA- (5th) | 93 FIP- (4th)
102 LOB+ (11th) | 3.98 RA/G (5th)
[so a Top Five pitching staff, with an above average defense helping them strand runners, but just an abysmal group of hitters]

2026 Pirates Position Players
109 wRC+ (2nd) | 5.23 RS/G (3rd)
+7 DRS (17th) | -18 FRV (27th)
2026 Pirates Pitchers
100 ERA- (14th) | 95 FIP- (10th)
95 LOB+ (29th) | 4.88 RA/G (22nd)
[about as big an offensive turnaround as you can get, but the corresponding drop in defense has had a pretty big impact in their run prevention]

Of course, hard to argue it hasn't been worth it in the aggregate to trade off +1.63 RS/G at the expense of -0.90 RA/G, but their defense might limit their ascent for this year to around .500 instead of true Wild Card Contender (currently 5.0 games out behind WAS, STL, MIA, PHI, CHI with ARI and SDP a half game back at 5.5 out of the last WC spot).
 

[Brewcrew82]

Brewers getting pretty fortunate here with Cruz, Horwitz, and now Griffin out for Pittsburgh. We'll take it. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Brewers getting pretty fortunate here with Cruz, Horwitz, and now Griffin out for Pittsburgh. We'll take it. 

Maybe gives them an opportunity to be a little more careful with Reynolds, who would probably come off his death bed to play if he saw Milwaukee on the schedule. Still have to deal with Lowe & O'Hearn though----the seasons they're turning in, who saw that coming? 

Ashby has had a rubber arm so it may not be a big deal, but it would've been nice if he wasn't needed yesterday. Could be a busy weekend for the LH bullpen guys.

[willie key]

Got to feel some excitement for what Pratt has been doing lately 

[JoeyWiemerTruther]

Yeah this is for sure getting rained out. Wonder if they play 2 tomorrow or push it back to a double header in the September series

[folly412]

A flash flood warning in Pittsburgh until 25 minutes before game time.  Scattered storms likely for a bit after that. 

[willie key]

Pittsburgh is the ******* worst.   Put a damn roof on that stadium.    My god

[BruisedCrew]

If tonight’s game is rained out, I would vote for a DH  in September. 

Both teams have an off day on the Monday before the Tuesday-Thursday series so the DH could be for Tuesday.

There are also thunderstorms possible tomorrow afternoon so getting 2 games in might be dicey. I assume nobody would be happy about having to play a doubleheader on the day before the All-Star break.

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

If tonight’s game is rained out, I would vote for a DH  in September. 

Both teams have an off day on the Monday before the Tuesday-Thursday series so the DH could be for Tuesday.

There are also thunderstorms possible tomorrow afternoon so getting 2 games in might be dicey. I assume nobody would be happy about having to play a doubleheader on the day before the All-Star break.

I'm sure Pittsburgh would love to have the doubleheader in September as well with Cruz, Griffin, and Horwitz on the IL and all should be back by that series in September.

[JoeyWiemerTruther]

32 minutes ago, JoeyWiemerTruther said:

Yeah this is for sure getting rained out. Wonder if they play 2 tomorrow or push it back to a double header in the September series

Forecast for later in the night cleared up since I last checked. Still looking like scattered rain up til about 8 PM but it’s very scattered and precipitation amounts are low. So might be able to squeeze this game in tonight later. Apparently the players are warming up on the field rn even with the tarp on the infield on so it seems the game hasn’t been cancelled yet

[wibadgers23]

23 minutes ago, willie key said:

Pittsburgh is the ******* worst.   Put a damn roof on that stadium.    My god

Why in the world do they get so much rain? We go through this every year in Pittsburgh.

[willie key]

I saw the lineup.   Go ahead and cancel the game

[BruisedCrew]

6 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Every season has its share of ups and downs, so thought it might be interesting to track the roller coaster ride that got the Brewers here to today...

First Ten Games
8 W - 2 L (.800 W%)
6.80 RS/G | 3.80 RA/G
128 wRC+ | 87 ERA- | 100 FIP-

Next Sixteen Games
5 W - 11 L (.313 W%)
3.69 RS/G | 4.69 RA/G
65 wRC+ | 99 ERA- | 84 FIP-

Next Thirty Eight Games
28 W - 10 L (.737 W%)
5.71 RS/G | 3.29 RA/G
111 wRC+ | 72 ERA- | 74 FIP-

Next Ten Games
4 W - 6 L (.400 W%)
4.40 RS/G | 3.60 RA/G
109 wRC+ | 89 ERA- | 101 FIP-

Last Nineteen Games
14 W - 5 L (.737 W%)
4.63 RS/G | 3.42 RA/G
105 wRC+ | 69 ERA- | 84 FIP-

A less granular approach might be just to split the dang thing in uneven halves from when they bottomed out at 13 W - 13 L after their first 26 games compared to what they've done in the 67 games since...

First Twenty Six
13 W - 13 L (.500 W%)
4.88 RS/G | 4.35 RA/G
90 wRC+ | 94 ERA- | 90 FIP-

Last Sixty Seven
46 W - 21 L (.687 W%)
5.21 RS/G | 3.37 RA/G
109 wRC+ | 73 ERA- | 81 FIP-

& just for fun here is how the Brewers most recent 67 games of this year stack up with their final 116 games of last season after starting out 21 W - 25 L...

Last 116 of 2025
76 W - 40 L (.655 W%)
5.28 RS/G | 3.72 RA/G
115 wRC+ | 80 ERA- | 90 FIP-

If the Brewers maintain the .687 W% of their last 67 games over their remaining 69 games they would end up with around 106 Wins.

If the Brewers maintain their seasonal .634 W% over their remaining 69 games they would end up with around 102 Wins.

To have their first 100 Win season if franchise history they would need to go 41 W - 28 L (.594 W%).

To set a new franchise record with 98 Wins they would need to go 39 W - 30 L (.565 W%).

Since Arnold took over the front office in 2023 the Brewers have a .589 W% over 579 games, since Murphy took over the manager's seat in 2024 the Brewers have a .597 W% over 417 games.

If you want to go down this path I could use something similar to highlight my questions about the Brewers offense.

For one thing, I don’t think this season has been that much of a roller coaster so far. It’s nothing compared to the Cubs or the Braves (which has been more of a steep climb followed by a steep descent).

The Brewers had a good first  week followed by a bad streak that brought them back to .500. Since then it’s been a mostly uphill climb without the dramatic winning streaks from the second half of last year.

But I think the way you divided up the games presents a misleading picture of what the Brewers offense was like in that middle block of 38 games. I’d have to spend some time getting the precise numbers, but that block seems to include the two 13 run games against at the end of April and the high scoring games in early June against the Giants, Rockies and A’s. Those games whitewash the whole month of May in which the Brewers offense was middle of the pack (something like 4.3 RPG)  

The next two groups covering 29 games show the Brewers scoring around 4.5 RPG.

If we just looked at the games from May 1 on, there would be about 10 weeks of the Brewers averaging about 4.5 RPG with one block of exceptionally high scoring games in the middle. 

These are all facts that we can each interpret how we want for purposes of evaluating the Brewers offense and what we can expect from it going forward. I think we would all agree that the games in Colorado and Vegas are aberrations and are not very relevant for projecting future performance, especially because the Brewers won’t be visiting either place again. 

My conclusion from this is, at least for now, the Brewers offense is more of a middle of the pack 4.5 RPG offense than an elite 5 RPG offense. But that run prevention has been undeniably elite and that’s why the Brewers have been winning at the rate they have been. 

[BruisedCrew]

The game is listed as Delayed on the MLB site. 

[folly412]

More rain coming.  Pirates fans in comments thinking it's absurd they're trying to get it in.

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

Ashcraft for an inning, rain delay for oh, about an hour. Ashcraft done. Works for me.

Maybe that's why we added Wilson😁.

[Brian]

2 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Ashcraft for an inning, rain delay for oh, about an hour. Ashcraft done. Works for me.

Maybe that's why we added Wilson😁.

Bryce Wilson is our new ace taking Peralta's spot.

[Malik Willis]

If they start at 6:50 it's likely that it'll be delayed again in the first third of the game or so. However it's also likely that rain will dissipate after 8-9 pm EDT, so if they want to get it in they should be able to.

[markedman5]

“I’d haveto spend some time getting the precise numbers, but that block seems toinclude the two 13 run games against at the end of April and the high scoringgames in early June against the Giants, Rockies and A’s. Those games whitewash the whole month of May in which the Brewers offense was middle of the pack (something like 4.3 RPG)  “

My guess is if you took the highest 3 scoring games out for any team during a similar stretch you would get a similar adjustment for those teams.

Every team has peaks and valleys ……..overall the brewers offense has been very good at generating runs even without many homers…..or high slugging pct.

[HarryDoyle]

Death, taxes and rain in Pittsburgh.