Henderson Game 1….and Miz Game 2?

[rickh150]

I know we all are assuming Miz Game 1 and Henderson Game 2. But how about the other way around?
Why?
Well, I am not crazy about our starting options on the road, whether it’s Gasser, Ray, and/or bullpen. Pitching Miz Game 1, he isn’t going again until Game 5. He’d have his typical 5 days rest this way. Henderson goes Game 2 and would likely only be available out of the pen maybe for Game 5, if needed.

If it’s Henderson Game 1, could he go short rest and pitch Game 4? Then Miz could still go Game 2 and 5 on “normal” 4 day rest. This way our top two pitchers pitch 4/5 of the series. And if we win in 3 or 4, we still could go Miz/Henderson Games 1/2 of the NLCS on regular rest for Henderson and extra rest for Miz. 

Is this a possibility yet?

 

 

[wiguy94]

Henderson this year has made 1 start on 4 days rest, 9 starts on 5 days rest, and 7 starts on 6+ days rest. Misiorowski this year has made 4 starts on 4 days rest, 16 starts on 5 days rest, and 9 starts on 6+ days rest.

So here lies the issue with your plan, 4 days rest is not normal rest for these guys. 5 days rest is normal rest. 

[rickh150]

Yep.. that’s why the “normal” is in quotes. Agreed.

But perhaps we say extra rest was given so they can pitch now with less rest between starts. How about suck it up….we need you.

We have question marks with Games 3 and 4.  Throwing Henderson light (twice thru lineup) in Game 1 could save him a bit for Game 4. And that frees Game 3 up to be more for Gasser/Ray and bullpen.

It’s pulling me more lately to flip flop the rotation, especially to get Henderson a possible two games seeing how well he is throwing.  

Risky, yes. But so is the other way.

[BruisedCrew]

IMHO not starting Miz in Game 1 would be foolish unless you think Henderson has a better chance of winning that game  

No matter which way you go Games 3 and 4 would be covered by some form of piggyback or bullpen games and the Game 1 starter could pitch game 5 if needed.

You  can’t count on Miz or Henderson to go more than 6 innings and there’s no guarantee they’ll make it that far. For the Brewers to win a playoff series they’re going to need positive contributions from almost every one of the pitchers and/or the offense putting up 4 or 5 runs or more in at least a couple of games. 

 

[MrTPlush]

Nearly 75% of the time the Game 1 winning team wins the divisional series. I love the logic, but there is zero chance of Miz not pitching Game 1.

[CheezWizHed]

You have to consider how that lines up the rotation for the second series too.  The goal is to maximize Miz's outings in the whole postseason. 

[Playing Catch]

I want the freshest bullpen available for the Misiorowski start. Go pitch a shutout. Win or lose game 1, I think Henderson's ability to sneak out of tough spots with pitch-to-contact (yesterday being a perfect example) gives the him and the Brewers the option to manage a bullpen in a losing, or a winning performance. If the Brewers are winning, Henderson can keep the bulk guys available in game 3 by attacking the zone and getting weak contact, and if they are losing, he can pitch around power, and nibble, and still be effective a couple of times through the order. If Miz is pitching game 2 with a pen that features Uribe/Megill having thrown a bunch of pitches game 1, I feel like a few baserunners in the 4th, and things could get out of hand for Miz, and for the rest of the game.

Edit to add: I'm probably overthinking it.

[Brewcrew82]

No way they're moving Miz out of Game 1. He's already lined up and Game 1 is big in a 5 game series so you want your best pitcher going. Especially when your opponent won't be able to start their #1 on regular rest. Why cede that advantage? Then, he'd be on identical rest for a potential Game 5.

Better idea would be to bullpen game 2 (DL Hall open?) ahead of the off-day and move Henderson to Game 3. I actually prefer this approach to Henderson in game 2. Same thing they did last year with Priester.

 

[HarryDoyle]

Five days rest just doesn't work in October. You need your best pitchers to pitch as often as possible.

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, HarryDoyle said:

Five days rest just doesn't work in October. You need your best pitchers to pitch as often as possible.

Still bothered Burnes couldnt go Game 4 in 2021 on short rest only to not pitch the not necessary Game 5.  Wasn’t hurt, though.  

[igor67]

I don't know what the in between starts throwing looks like anymore, but I always liked the idea of letting your starters toss a real inning instead of just practice in the post season. Both Miz and Henderson seem like they have the make-up to just roll with that.

[hoosier]

Henderson's splits this year also favor throwing him in one of the home games. Not a huge difference but he's definitely been more dominant at home. 

 

Split	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	WHIP	SO9	SO/W
Home	6	0	1.000	1.84	8	8	0	0	0	0	44.0	26	10	9	7	8	0	50	0	0	0	162	0.773	10.2	6.25
Away	5	3	.625	2.98	10	10	0	0	0	0	54.1	38	18	18	7	11	0	60	1	0	1	209	0.902	9.9	5.45

[Frisbee Slider]

In a real sense, all Milwaukee pitching performs better at home:

Away: 3.88 ERA

Home: 3.16 ERA

https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/18kho

[Frisbee Slider]

Uribe and Megill were better on the road this season, by ERA.

https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/AoJqU

[Playing Catch]

15 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Still bothered Burnes couldnt go Game 4 in 2021 on short rest only to not pitch the not necessary Game 5.  Wasn’t hurt, though.  

Not me. We've seen short rest starters blow up every single season. There are just enough elite pitchers that have performed well on short rest to give us the sense that it is worth it. But I would prefer nearly every single one of the Brewers pitching staff on regular rest over a Brewers pitcher on short rest for their role.

 

[Frisbee Slider]

20 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

Not me. We've seen short rest starters blow up every single season. There are just enough elite pitchers that have performed well on short rest to give us the sense that it is worth it. But I would prefer nearly every single one of the Brewers pitching staff on regular rest over a Brewers pitcher on short rest for their role.

 

Dustin May on full rest versus Henderson/Miz on short rest? Gasser?

[hoosier]

I have no doubt Murphy would not hesitate to bring in one of his starters on short rest in a do-or-die scenario, but would expect him to stick with the standard (no fewer than four days off between outings) for designating a starting pitcher. Only exception I can envision is if someone has a really short outing, maybe bringing them back on fewer than four off. But if a guy has a truncated outing it's probably because he stunk it up, so that doesn't seem especially likely either. 

[Team Canada]

29 minutes ago, hoosier said:

I have no doubt Murphy would not hesitate to bring in one of his starters on short rest in a do-or-die scenario

Yeah, he's done it with Freddy before (was it just the Mets in 2024 and not at all last year?).

That's what's so fun about postseason baseball. You're not planning for a whole season, it's literally Win Tonight and all options are on the table. Especially if you make it to the WS, can you imagine an elimination game where you have Miz, Henderson, and all the bullpen A guys just throwing max effort for an inning? It'd be amazing.

[Brewcrew82]

FWIW, Padres slightly edge the Cubs right now in terms of most probable NLDS opponent. If we do end up facing them, I would very much trend towards opening with DL Hall in game 2 and saving Hendo for a game 3 at Petco. Why? As hot as they currently are, the Padres only have a 98 wRC+ vs. LHP on the season....You can apply this to the Phillies even moreso, but they are far less likely to be our NLDS opponent at this point. 

Ashby's dominance on extended rest last night makes me quite comfortable with him as our primary left handed late inning option. With Romero and Drohan also available as depth. 

[Playing Catch]

5 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Dustin May on full rest versus Henderson/Miz on short rest? Gasser?

I mean, yeah, kinda. I can't say I'd feel good about either option, but I'll choose the option that has worked so well in the regular season. Win the series.

It's all circumstantial, though. I reserve the right to change my mind. But I think winning it all is going to take cool heads making cool decisions.

[pitchleague]

I know the Brewers have been "babying" (for lack of a better word) their starters for the last week or two; just giving them some work and limiting their arms.  But the post-season is when you put your big boy pants on.  I would expect whomever starts games 1 and 2 to go 6+ innings and only taking them out if we're up big in each game.

They kinda need to get ramped back up again.  I just don't see them being able to piggyback or Johnny Wholestaff a game 3 or 4 (in a seven game series) and be all that successful, especially when our opponent will likely be pitching their better arms in those games (after likely being used in the wild card series.)

And maybe I'm wrong.  I'm okay with being wrong.

You always see World Series teams using their horses to get there once they get to the post-season.  Maybe the Brewers will play the "long game" and try to continue conserving pitches for the NLCS and WS?  I don't think that's a bad strategy; it's just not what I would do.

Hence, why I am typing on a message board instead of working for a big league club LOL.

 

[Austin Tatious]

I have got to go Gasser in game three.  Maybe a short leash with the pen.  Unless there are specific analytics for the circumstance.  Like he doesn’t match up well with enough of their lineup or has problems in a stadium. 

[Samurai Bucky]

1 hour ago, Austin Tatious said:

I have got to go Gasser in game three.  Maybe a short leash with the pen.  Unless there are specific analytics for the circumstance.  Like he doesn’t match up well with enough of their lineup or has problems in a stadium. 

When I saw Gasser pitching last night, it reminded me of Bob McClure during the 1982 postseason.  I’m not sure too many people outside of Milwaukee knew about McClure and when he came in, his mix of pitches along with his plus curveball made him extremely effective. Hopefully Gasser will have the same success.  

[Frisbee Slider]

Miz could really only pitch games 1 and 5 in NLDS. 
 

Could either throw Gasser in game 3 or 4. Could bullpen game 3 or 4, too.

Hall for 2

Patrick for 2

Ashby for 2.

Senz then Uribe then Megill

[Trail]

I'm fine with Gasser in 3 and bullpen in 4.  Probably Harrison for 3 innings.  He looked very good on Saturday...for those 2 innings at least he looked dominant.  If he's anywhere close to his old self that's a game changer.