World Series Game 4: Brewers (TBD) vs Rays (Jax): 10/27/26, 7:00pm

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

2 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Not that it matters at this stage but eventually the invoice is going to become due for how much some of our key arms have thrown this season. 

I don't have time to dig up the numbers, but outside of LA's in-season sabbaticals that could be said for pretty much any team that makes it this far. 

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

One thing I noticed last night that has been eating at me... The infield was shifted right with Hicks up but Contreras set up away. Ball should have been a 6-4-3 if Coop wasn't shaded towards second. 

[adambr2]

13 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Agreed completely. I don't know if it is just the "Wisconsin Sports Fan" PTSD in me, but I was NEVER confident during last night's game. It was basically the same negative thoughts I had during the whole NLCS last year. Even when Pratt hit that dinger, I wasn't confident, knowing what was left in the pen. 

That said, the Brewers have put themselves in an incredible spot, and are still very much in the driver's seat. As much fun as it would be to see them win the series at home, I truly hope it is over tonight.

I am trying to look at this from a logic based standpoint that the odds are still very much in our favor, and not from the standpoint of a jaded Wisconsin sports fan. 

But, I did that when we were up 21-3 on the Bears, too. 

We should still feel very good about where we are at. But no one in that locker room should feel comfortable until that 4th win, and every game should be played to win. 

There is no “it’s okay if we lose tonight because then we can close it back in Milwaukee”.  No, finish this whenever the opportunity prevents itself. Every time you don’t is breathing life back into the Rays. 

There is no reason for us to panic, but there is also no reason for us to pretend this series is already won. 3-1 is not insurmountable. Ask the Cubs. 

[RWeeksFan23]

13 hours ago, edfunderburk said:

I’m not bored anymore. That was beautiful. I respect Pratt’s values as much as his athletic abilities. What a moment for a 21-year old kid. The Packers sweatshirt I’m wearing as I watch this game is 10 years older than Pratt. 😂

how can a Brewers world series game, especially one where they were tied or within a run the entire game, be boring?!

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The question of "Why do you have Harrison and Woodruff on the roster only to throw meaningless innings?" is a FAR more valid critique than "How could you not let Miz close Game 4 with a 3-0 lead?"

[RWeeksFan23]

12 hours ago, Bernies Sponsor said:

 

I'm not sure about Miz tomorrow, the mound looks like a nightmare and he hasn't looked great. That Woodruff roster spot is looking like a rough choice rn

how is the woodruff roster spot looking rough?

He looked okay the other night. Who else should it have gone to? Chad Patrick, who can't throw the ball over the plate?

[RWeeksFan23]

12 hours ago, BCF said:

Why wouldn’t you want your cy young and ace to close out the World Series? 
 

It was all set up perfectly. If he gave up a run pull him and go with Drohan etc 

sure it could have worked out great, but if it didn't we could have not only lost last night, but also not have Miz available today. Imagine that scenario.

[RWeeksFan23]

12 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

Tonight‘s game is an example of why I wasn’t thrilled to see Woodruff on the roster. 

Why? He looked fine the other night. Who would you have preferred? Chad Patrick? The guy who can't find the strike zone any more?

[RWeeksFan23]

12 hours ago, Bernies Sponsor said:

desperately need Bauers and Mitchell to do SOMETHING tomorrow. No justifiable reason for Jake to still be in the 2 hole

Sure he's having a quiet series, but that doesn't mean he's not still one of our best bats against RHP.

[TURBO]

9 minutes ago, RWeeksFan23 said:

He looked okay the other night. 

Did he though?

Any other pitcher comes in and gives up a run in one inning, and we aren't saying he looked ok at all...

Woodruff is a feel good story, all he's been through, and he gets to pitch in a world series game, in about as far from a leverage situation as you can get.  He comes in, doesn't blow it with a 10 run lead, and he can now say he pitched in a world series game.

That's it.  Nothing more.  It's a feel good story, but that's it.

He should never be relied on for anything meaningful in this world series.  End of story.

In that regard, neither should Drohan, but that's for another post.

[RWeeksFan23]

12 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Feel like Murphy's short sighted pitching management earlier in the game came back to bite us in the 12th. Only using JoJo for 3 outs and only using Megill for 1 out both in tie game scenarios. 

True, but at least those two should be relatively fresh for tonight.

[bucks2281]

12 minutes ago, RWeeksFan23 said:

Why? He looked fine the other night. Who would you have preferred? Chad Patrick? The guy who can't find the strike zone any more?

Woodruff seemingly cannot pitch on consecutive nights or in a remotely leverage situation. Somebody who can do one or both of those should be on the roster in his place. 

[RWeeksFan23]

12 hours ago, jason21nl said:

The feel good story of Woody being on the team won’t feel so good if they blow this thing.   Patrick should have been on over him.   

woodruff has nothing to do with the loss last night.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

4 minutes ago, bucks2281 said:

Woodruff seemingly cannot pitch on consecutive nights or in a remotely leverage situation. Somebody who can do one or both of those should be on the roster in his place. 

I think the argument is that person doesn't exist. Patrick got the yips at the end of the season, and Anderson and Stallings are Anderson and Stallings ... both guys you don't want to see in any sort of meaningful role.

[RWeeksFan23]

12 hours ago, FidoMcCokefiend said:

If Miz is going tomorrow you absolutely need at least 7 from him. Just the most disastrous way to lose this game. But Murphy saved the staff for the next road trip.  

Need 7 from Misiorowski? That's a bit extreme. No chance it happens either.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

16 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Did he though?

Any other pitcher comes in and gives up a run in one inning, and we aren't saying he looked ok at all...

Woodruff is a feel good story, all he's been through, and he gets to pitch in a world series game, in about as far from a leverage situation as you can get.  He comes in, doesn't blow it with a 10 run lead, and he can now say he pitched in a world series game.

That's it.  Nothing more.  It's a feel good story, but that's it.

He should never be relied on for anything meaningful in this world series.  End of story.

In that regard, neither should Drohan, but that's for another post.

Yeah...it's hard to argue any of this. I thought they knew something we didn't. Like they worked him out and thought wow, we could use this. Then he enters a 10-0 game it sure feels like a lifetime achievement award. You can't have both he and Woodruff on this roster if that's the case. Yes, even Patrick, the human BB is a better choice.

[TURBO]

5 from Miz and we are in good shape, expecting more than he has given to this point is a stretch.

5 innings, one run is what I'm hoping for.  Anything other than that is gravy, and I sincerely mean that.  If he gives us 5.1!  Yippeeeeee!  5.2, and high fives all around. 6 and I'm going to run the neighborhood naked!  (ok, not really, I wouldn't do that to my neighbors, unless they care to join me...)

[Schill26]

It seems I’m in the minority here but I feel the Miz decision was very bad (this is assuming he was in fact able and willing to get warm after the Pratt homer, which knowing Miz I would assume he would want to close the game out if given the chance). Murph is a great manager but the math is the math. 
 

Somebody smarter than me can tell me if any of this is wrong but here is my back of the envelope math:

Miz’s odds to throw a scoreless inning: ~88%
Drohan’s odds: ~65% (I don’t have these exact figures but these are estimates based on this years stats for both players)
 

Brewers odds to win game 5 with Miz based on current Vegas lines is ~58%
 

Brewers odds to win if they hypothetically had to start Harrison instead are likely around 40% (this is the only number I had to come up with myself, but it feels close to accurate).

Based on these assumptions, the brewers odds to win *at least one* of the two games are as follows:

With Miz pitching in game 4: ~92%
With Miz starting in game 5: ~85%

 

This importantly ignores the fact that you probably still start Miz in game 6 or 7 if it got to that point, which makes throwing Miz in game 4 look even better. Based on my math, this was a pretty egregious error. I’m open to being wrong but all of this data seems reasonable based on everything I’ve seen. Managers normally don’t end up being able to swing win probability by 7% based on just one decision, so this is very bad in my opinion.  They are still at 90% to win the series, so hopefully this is all moot, but I think it was a very significant choice.

[jason21nl]

12 minutes ago, RWeeksFan23 said:

woodruff has nothing to do with the loss last night.

He’s a reliever that doesn’t have the ability to pitch multiple days and choose to pitch in a 10 run game bs a stressful situation.  He absolutely has something to do with it. 

[homer]

I think the loss had more to do with the inability to get on base and score a run when we got into their pen than with any bullpen decision. 

The error in the 12th was huge too. You can say they would have hit Drohan anyway but without a guy on base the infield is positioned differently, they maybe pitch differently, etc. etc. Getting the lead off guy on base was massive.

[RWeeksFan23]

12 hours ago, bucks2281 said:

Would have rolled with Senzatela after the error. Drohan is just completely cooked.

I also really question the rostering of Woodruff. I don’t know how you can justify rostering a guy that is completely off limits today after pitching only one inning yesterday. 

with how long it's been since patrick has pitched, it's not like he'd be pitching back to back days either. Not like i'd want him to anyway since he can't find the strike zone anymore.

[Bulldogboy]

5 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

I’m perplexed how Woodruff had the option to pitch the most uselsss inning in the World Series or start the potential title clinching game. Polar opposite situations. At least that is how I understood the story when I read about it afterwards.

If Woodruff isn’t able to pitch back to back games, letting him get that throwaway inning was a pretty shortsighted move.

I said the same thing. He said he wanted the 9th in a 10-0 game? This makes zero sense unless he was just an ornament. 

[RWeeksFan23]

12 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

I just don't think Joey can handle the pressure of the playoffs. He's been so bad every postseason for us. He's back to swinging at anything within a foot of the zone. He had two plays at 3B tonight both routine and both times he threw the ball in the dirt at 1B.

Ortiz has been swinging at anything within a foot of the zone for a while now. Hell even when he was hitting the ball well there for that stretch, the dude was still swinging at everything. Just a matter of time before pitchers exploited that.

[MrTPlush]

5 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

I said the same thing. He said he wanted the 9th in a 10-0 game? This makes zero sense unless he was just an ornament. 

Should have asked him hypothetically before adding him to the roster. I don’t want anyone on the roster that would prefer the 9th inning in a blowout over starting the next game. If Woodruff doesn’t have confidence in himself then I don’t want him on the roster.

[Bulldogboy]

Was Murphy even asked what's up with Harrison? He pitched Senzatela two innings in a 10-0 game and Harrison didn't pitch at all. Then he asks Senzatela to come back for two more? If Harrison can't soak up innings 10-0 why is he here? What's his spot? Tonight game on the line?