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umphrey

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Everything posted by umphrey

  1. umphrey
    I think Adames said at the end there was no negotiation whatsoever. I think it will be the same with Freddy. No need to insult him by offering 3 years $30m or whatever if that is where they are at.
  2. umphrey
    I would love to pay Freddy but I don’t see how they can do it. I think the Musgrave contract is a good comp. 5 years $100m. But that was 2023 and inflation probably brings it up a bit.
  3. umphrey
    Wait why did we go with Avans over Rosario?
  4. umphrey
    I wouldn’t hate it as a reclamation project and I didn’t have high hopes for a Civale trade either, I just don’t know how this is supposed to work? Pay Vaughn a decent salary but keep him in the minors all year and then non tender him? Is he just purely injury insurance for 2025?
  5. umphrey
    Well that trade is just ridiculous
  6. umphrey
    It's a bum move, he could have just collected his paycheck and requested it privately instead of knifing the team
  7. umphrey
    I am thinking they probably keep him in a long relief role so he could start again if needed, or get traded as a starter. If he can't make the cut as a top 5 starter for us, I don't think he will have any trade value, just a salary dump. Small chance they are going for a Drew Pomeranz style transformation (below average starter to good reliever) but I doubt it if he has already said he's mad about it.
  8. umphrey
    My gripe with Priester is just that he's a back end no strike out pitcher and those have been a dime a dozen for us. Is he really that much better than Tobias Myers or Quintana for example?
  9. umphrey
    Priester kind of blows. I get the appeal, ground ball pitcher, lots of control, top prospect, big innings eater. But at the end of the day I think he’s just a failed high draft pick.
  10. umphrey
    I feel like sometimes there is a gap in expectations vs reality of selling. It's not so easy to just gut the team and build a super team for 2027 to 2030. They probably just get role players and salary relief for everyone besides Contreras and Peralta. The Contreras + Peralta trade would probably be like 3x the Burnes return. Which would be a nice setup but it would gut the team and waste a few seasons from some other players like Turang, Frelick, Hoskins, etc. Anyway I'm still selling Peralta at the deadline but only if the deal is great and we are very low on playoff odds. I think it takes advantage of our competitive advantage of good defense and pitcher development and it's a sell high. I also wouldn't mind an extension for him though.
  11. umphrey
    Top 100 is kind of vague. I could see #95 and #98 coming back or #35 and a throw in. But it’s a little irrelevant anyway because the pundit top 100 is going to be a lot different than the industry top 100. anyway I think 1.5 years of Peralta gets a solid haul.
  12. umphrey
    Also with Hoskins, he's playing well enough that we can consider some other scenarios besides salary dump or walk in FA. If his numbers really pop and he's looking at 3+ years $20m AAV, that could be a QO and a win/win whether he takes it or leaves it. If less like 1-2 years and $10m-$15m AAV then maybe we should just re sign him because who else is going to play 1B next year.
  13. umphrey
    It really comes down to playoff odds at the deadline and I don't think they sell unless they are down at 1% or 2%. If the pitchers are healthy then they have to sell some guys no matter what, or maybe they just never get healthy. I think we are on track for a light sell like re tool for next year with Hoskins and a pitcher or 2.
  14. umphrey
    I feel like Koenig is always getting lit up but his numbers are decent, not sure how that’s possible
  15. umphrey
    Can't believe we are going to bury the Orioles in May. They are at 1.6% playoff odds.
  16. umphrey
    I'm happy it's CRod and surprised it took this long. I'd like to see him get an extended look and either sink or float.
  17. umphrey
    Shane Smith and Reese Olsen have more WAR than any Brewers pitcher right now. That kind of negligence does get people fired IMO.
  18. umphrey
    Not really getting into whether we should have signed Adames, but I think if he was playing here he would have put up 3.5 to 4 WAR in 2025 with us. I think he will even out his numbers in SF by end of year and I also think he just plays a bit better here for some reason.
  19. umphrey
    Ortiz was never a serious option for 2025 3B and depending on Wilken the 2025 3B would be something worth criticism.
  20. umphrey
    I don’t think it’s right to look at the 3Bs from the offseason and say “well the couple guys who signed for less than $5m mostly aren’t doing well so Arnold did a good job there”. He has been GM for many years and team building doesn’t happen 1 offseason at a time. Several of the top 20 3Bs would have been available in previous years through draft, trade, develop, etc.
  21. umphrey
    I don't think I've ever disagreed with a fangraphs list so much. They leaned too far into future upside and away from probability to help the MLB team. Guys like Durbin, Patrick, Boeve, Black, Wilken too far below guys like Jorge Quintana and his 2030 ETA. Someone needs to remind them that first round picks are not done developing at age 23 most of the time, and this miss rate on 18 year olds is insanely high.
  22. umphrey
    The most likely scenario right now is they are running a 15% or so playoff odds at the deadline and just shuffle a few cards to re tool for a "let's see what happens" run. Trade away a pitcher or 2 and prospect #15 for a depth bat for example.
  23. umphrey
    Personally I don't think batting order matters that much so long as you don't do ridiculous things like put the best hitters 7,8,9. More than anything you don't want to lose an AB in the 9th inning for a good hitter because you didn't get around to him again.
  24. umphrey
    I feel like trading Freddy is the only path to fixing the infield, and this team is going to be broken as long as the infield is broken, but we can get by without Freddy.
  25. umphrey
    50/50 chance it's a made up thing to buy time?
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