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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Thought I'd start a thread for offseason miscellany from around the league and what better way to kick things off than with the Rockies hiring Paul DePodesta to run their baseball operations. You may remember DePodesta as being portrayed by Jonah Hill in Moneyball, or more recently for trading a bunch of draft picks then handing out a huge extension to noted massage enthusiast DeShaun Watson.
  2. sveumrules
    Woody put up 1.5 rWAR | 1.8 fWAR last year with the team going 10 W - 2 L in his 12 games started. What kind of production would he have needed to put up to break even on that $17M (spread out over multiple years and payments to reduce the actual value) in your eyes?
  3. sveumrules
    Looks like Kiley's 4/90 at ESPN is the high bid on Grisham with MLBTR at 4/66 and FanGraphs at 3/54. First guy that came to mind for me was Profar as someone with a track record of mostly blah before putting up a big walk year and he got 3/42 going into his age 32 season as a poor defensive LF. 18-23 Profar (2,905 PA) 97 wRC+ | -46.4 DEF | 4.8 WAR 2024 Profar (668 PA) 139 wRC+ | -10.6 DEF | 4.3 WAR 19-24 Girsham (2,250 PA) 95 wRC+ | +23.4 DEF | 9.6 WAR 2025 Grisham (581 PA) 129 wRC+ | -6.0 DEF | 3.2 WAR Trent is three years, eight months younger and has played almost exclusively CF his whole career (even if his metrics did take a hit this past season), so I'd guess that gets him at least an extra year and a higher AAV than Jurickson. But yeah, feels like Grisham will end up closer to the MLBTR and FG predictions than to Kiley's number. Also, didn't see it mentioned elsewhere upthread but looks like MLBTR has the high bid on Woodruff at 3/66.
  4. sveumrules
    Out of 156 batters with at least 100 PA in the Arizona Complex League this year Fielder's 137 wRC+ ranked 17th so he at least put up some numbers to go along with the last name. Things working against him are that he was old for the league and already primarily a left fielder so he's going to have to keep hitting all the way up to have any kind of shot. Also worth noting in a "read between the lines" kind of sense is that despite being the oldest player on the team, Jadyn spent the whole season on the Complex while a number of younger position players got the bump up to Carolina throughout the summer.
  5. sveumrules
    Woody is six months older and obviously is coming off injury, but their ability as pitchers is pretty far apart. 2019-23 Woody (595 IP) 69 ERA- | 72 FIP- | 86 AVG+ 130 K+ | 72 BB+ | 81 HR+ 2024 Imanaga (173 IP) 72 ERA- | 93 FIP- | 92 AVG+ 112 K+ | 49 BB+ | 125 HR+ At their best both pitchers run prevention ended up in the same neighborhood, but Shota's peripherals (especially that elevated HR rate) portended likely regression. 2025 Woody (64 IP) 77 ERA- | 77 FIP- | 77 AVG+ 147 K+ | 65 BB+ | 108 HR+ 2025 Imanaga (144 IP) 90 ERA- | 119 FIP- | 89 AVG+ 94 K+ | 55 BB+ | 167 HR+ Even coming off injury with diminished stuff 2025 Woodruff was on a whole other level than 2025 Imanaga. Small sample, but Brandon somehow managed to improve his K and BB rates coming back form the shoulder with only an elevated HR rate causing his FIP to backtrack slightly from his 2019-23 mark. Meanwhile Shota's HR rate exploded while his K rate cratered in his second MLB season. I'd rather roll the dice on Woodruff staying healthy over Imanaga figuring out how to keep the ball in the yard, but I guess we'll see how MLB front offices view the two of them soon enough.
  6. sveumrules
    Ben Clemens at FanGraphs predicts 2/34 for Woodruff, while the crowd was split between two and three years for Brandon (2.59 average) with a $22M AAV.
  7. sveumrules
    Players with +5 OAA at 2B in 2025... Tommy Edman, Ernie Clement, Max Schuemann, Daniel Schneemann (are those last two even real dudes?) Players with 22 SB in 2025... Cedric Mullins, Lawrence Butler, David Hamilton, Wyatt Langford Looks like the stats cited in the article do not belong to any 2025 player.
  8. sveumrules
    Quero’s been in AAA for two years, but with only 59 G | 251 PA on account of injury. I’d guess the Brewers bring in a vet backup backstop for depth so Jeferson can get primary catcher reps in AAA.
  9. sveumrules
    Brewers still would get the comp pick since there was no QO attached on Woody's first foray into FA. If he signs for over $50M the pick would be between the first round and Comp Round A. If he sign for less than $50M it would be after Comp Round B.
  10. sveumrules
    He's hardly played at all in 3 of his 4 seasons, sure, but he's accomplished plenty during the time he has actually been on the field. With 23 SB against only 5 CS, plus all the extra bases on the basepaths, he has been worth plus +4.8 BsR. In his 968 innings as an outfielder he has posted +10 DRS and +8 FRV. His career 254/333/433 batting line has been 14% better than league average by wRC+. Of course, that is likely unsustainable with a 33.9 K% and .376 BABIP under the hood, but the results are the results and Mitchell has been a plus runner, fielder and hitter in MLB. Add it all up, and in Garrett has notched 3.3 WAR in only 443 plate appearances, what kind of minor league free agent can you sign with that kind of upside? For comparison Perkins has 3.1 WAR in 773 PA and Collins has 2.4 WAR in 460 PA. Can he be counted on for anything with his injury history? Very likely not. But that doesn't mean he hasn't accomplished anything.
  11. sveumrules
    Only four games, but... When Turner's been ON the floor the other team has averaged 108.2 points per 100 possessions, which would be the 5th best dRTG on the team leaderboard in the early going. When Turner's been OFF the floor the other team has averaged 125.2 points per 100 possessions, which would be the 3rd worst dRTG on the team leaderboard in the early going.
  12. sveumrules
    Yeah, I'm sure there are some advance metrics out there attempting to quantify offensive line play that I am unaware of, but I would guess in a macro sense most Packers fans would agree that the offensive line has been worse this year than last. Love's Sack% has increased from 3.19% last year to 4.48% so far this year, as one measure. Another hurdle that has made Jordan's improved play (and the offense in general) that much more impressive in the early going.
  13. sveumrules
    If I had to take a crack at the odds (strictly for entertainment purposes of course) I'd probably go something like this... 20% Woody accepts QO (would give him one more year back in Milwaukee with an opportunity to put up a "fully healthy" say like 26 GS and 150 IP kind of platform season before entering FA next year with no QO attached) 35% Woody signs here two years 35% Woody signs elsewhere two years (as good as he was last year post-surgery I think between his age, injury to end the season, and teams' general risk aversion that two years will end up being the sweet spot, likely with some kind of option tacked on) 10% Woody gets three plus guaranteed years (think Brandon would have needed to come back sooner and end the season healthy for teams to feel comfortable with three years, but he is a legit playoff calibre starter if he can make it to October and all it takes is one team so you never know)
  14. sveumrules
    Lose your top receiver from last year Jayden Reed in the second game of the season. Jacobs drops from 4.4 yards per rush last year down to 3.6 yards per rush through the first seven games. Yet the offense has improved slightly from 27.1 PPG (8th) last year to 27.6 PPG (5th) through the first seven this year. Testament to Love maybe making the next step... 2024 Jordan 63.1 COMP% | 225.9 Y/G | 8.0 Y/A 2.27 TD/INT ratio | 96.7 rating | 66.3 QBR 2025 Jordan 70.9 COMP% | 256.9 Y/G | 8.4 Y/A 6.50 TD/INT ratio | 112.8 rating | 73.5 QBR ...guess we'll see if he can keep it up over the back nine. After his career best game last night Kraft is at 15.6 yards per catch with a TD every five receptions (6 TD in 30 catches) so far this year versus 14.1 yards per catch with a TD every 7.14 receptions (7 TD | 50 catches) last year.
  15. sveumrules
    MLBTR previewed the FA SP class today and had this to say about Woody... The two-time All-Star will decline his end of a $20MM mutual option with Milwaukee. The Brewers should make him a qualifying offer, which he’s expected to reject. His camp could take aim at the three-year, $75MM contract which Nathan Eovaldi received last winter. Teams might have enough pause about the shoulder to keep him at two years, but he should pull at least $20MM per season.
  16. sveumrules
    The Pirates having the third fewest wins in the National League made them the best last place team in the NL. Both the NL West and NL East had a worse last place team for the other four teams in the division to stack wins against. Reds won the the 2nd most games of any 3rd place team MLB. Cardinals won the 2nd most games of any 4th place team in MLB. Pirates won the 3rd most game on any 5th place team in MLB. If you think the NL Central was weak with the second most wins of any division in baseball I guess that's your prerogative, but the AL West, NL East, NL West, and AL Central were all objectively weaker.
  17. sveumrules
    There were 108 players in AA this year to get at least 400 PA. Williams hit 281/390/477 for a 156 wRC+ that was nine points higher than the next best AA hitter this year. 32 SB with only 7 CS gave him the 15th highest stolen base value of those same 108 players. He did that while being over five years younger than the average player in the Eastern League and playing mostly SS with some CF and 2B mixed in. That kind of performance is perfectly in line with his draft position and prospect rankings. The Brewers have twelve position players on the 40 Man under six feet tall, so Jett being 5'7" likely wouldn't constitute any kind of negative in their eyes.
  18. sveumrules
    NL Central was hardly mediocre this year. Pirates also had the 5th fewest wins in all baseball, not the 3rd. Wins by Division in 2025... AL East (429) NL Central (421) AL West (406) NL East (400) NL West (387) AL Central (387) First Place Teams MIL (97) PHI (96) TOR (94) LAD (93) SEA (90) CLE (88) Second Place Teams NYY (94) CHC (92) SDP (90) DET (87) HOU (87) NYM (83) Third Place Teams BOS (89) CIN (83) KCR (82) TEX (81) SFG (81) MIA (79) Fourth Place Teams ARI (80) STL (78) TBR (77) ATH (76) ATL (76) MIN (70) Fifth Place Teams BAL (75) LAA (72) PIT (71) WAS (66) CHW (60) COL (43)
  19. sveumrules
    The last time Yelich played OF regularly was from 2021 to 2023 when he appeared in 107, 115 and 122 games on the grass. Over those three years he was one of 91 outfielders with at least 1,500 innings and he came in at -6 DRS (76th) and -12 FRV (80th)...as a 29 to 31 year old pre-back surgery. The last two years, in only 555 innings, he has put up -4 DRS and -4 FRV.
  20. sveumrules
    The absolute perfect signing is a second DH ??
  21. sveumrules
    I would guess less. The difference in salary is little over $8.5M if favor of Peralta, but Burnes had a much better track record leading up to their respective trades... Burnes 2021-23: 562 IP (4th) (ranks among 104 pitchers min. 300 IP) 70 ERA- (7th) | 69 FIP- (4th) | 82 AVG+ (3rd) 133 K+ (8th) | 79 BB+ (38th) | 71 HR9+ (14th) 16.2 rWAR (2nd) | 15.5 fWAR (3rd) | +8.09 WPA (4th) Peralta 2023-25: 516 IP (15th) (ranks among 106 pitchers min. 300 IP) 81 ERA- (18th) | 93 FIP- (39th) | 85 AVG+ (7th) 130 K+ (11th) | 106 BB+ (89th) | 109 HR9+ (70th) 12.4 rWAR (8th) | 8.9 fWAR (23rd) | +5.98 WPA (10th) Corbin was viewed as a legit ace and ended up getting 6/210 in free agency. Plenty scoff at Freddy even being considered a #2 and I can't imagine anyone thinks he is realistically approaching $210M or a $35M AAV in free agency. At the time of the Burnes trade the 2024 rankings on BRef for Ortiz were #63 by MLB & unranked by BA/BPro. DL Hall had already graduated, but in 2023 he was #75 by BA, #97 by MLB, and #95 by BPro. So essentially two back end Top 100 kind of guys. I don't see the Brewers dealing Peralta for less than that when both the minor league system and major league team are in much better positions than they were when Burnes was traded.
  22. sveumrules
    Adrian was a tale of two seasons with a 2.10 ERA | 3.34 FIP in his first 11 starts with CHW, but those numbers tanked to a 4.79 ERA | 4.38 FIP in ten starts to end the year after getting traded to TBR. Seems like a one year, five or so million kind of guy to me.
  23. sveumrules
    Because they thought they could be improved upon? Pettine’s two years were 9th and 13th, Barry took a step back going 13th, 17th, and 10th in his three seasons. Hafley has been the best of the three so far. Is he good? I’d say 6th in PPG last year was pretty good. This year is still pending, lotta season left.
  24. sveumrules
    Packers allowed the 6th fewest points per game last year, they were at the 10th fewest entering today. From 2019 thru 2023 they ranked 9th, 13th, 13th, 17th, and 10th. Maybe not “good”, but consistently better than average and if this year holds that’s four Top Ten defenses in seven seasons.
  25. sveumrules
    Lawlar is lined up to be the starting 3B for the DBacks after they dealt Suarez at the deadline. Maybe if ARI brings back Eugenio in FA or splurges on Bregman it could free Lawlar up for trade, but even then a guy with his pedigree (peaked at #7, ten other Top 30 overall rankings) is probably too rich for one year of Peralta anyway since we couldn’t pull anyone that good for Burnes.
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