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Think that’s a pretty safe assumption at this point. Have to imagine the already started only going to get worse RSN situation would be a mitigating factor to any potential sale discussions since it introduces quite a bit of uncertainty with regards to projecting future revenues.

This FanGraphs link does a really good job breaking down the unconventional means by which Ramirez has gone about racking up the singles. Lots of cool stuff in there, but one interesting note is he has been among the best pinch hitters in MLB for his career. Since 2019 there are 88 players with at least 50 PH PAs with Harold coming in at .393 BA (2nd) and 157 wRC+ (7th). Another interesting name at the top of the leaderboard was Tyrone Taylor at .357 BA (4th) and 205 wRC+ (2nd). But the 2019-23 min 50 PAs Pinch Hit King has been currently unsigned old friend Ji Man Choi at .421 BA and 224 wRC+.

Harold Ramirez’s own career is a pretty good example of how certain attributes are stickier year to year, while others are prone to much more variance. From 2019-21, he had a 4.0 BB%, 18.2 K% and .134 ISO over 818 PAs. From 2022-23 he had a 4.7 BB%, 17.6 K% and .126 ISO over 869 PAs. Pretty close across the board. Big difference came in his BABIP. 2019-21 was only .315, which shook out to a .271 batting average and 92 wRC+. 2022-23 was up at .354, which shook out to a .306 batting average and 123 wRC+. Even over his two recent “good” years you can see the diminishing returns of his skill set. Among 201 players with at least 750 PAs from 2022-23… His .354 BABIP and .306 BA are both 5th, but with a 4.4 BB% (198th) and .126 ISO (167th), his 123 wRC+ only ranks 46th. Throw in -22.0 DEF (176th) and his 3.0 WAR ranks 125th of the 201 player sample.

His average is good, no doubt, but he doesn’t walk and doesn’t hit for power either. His .130 isolated slugging is 23% below league average and lines up with guys like Andrew Benintendi (.128) and Whit Merrifield (.132). His value is pretty much entirely dependent on hitting singles. He also has pretty wide platoon splits at 275/314/404 (99 wRC+) in 1,103 PAs vs RHP compared to 323/363/453 (129 wRC+) in 470 PAs vs LHP. So given no defensive value and middling performance vs RHP, his ideal usage would probably be as a DH only vs LHP.

No thanks. Can't field (-13 DRS | -11 OAA in the OF and -6 DRS | -4 OAA in only 278 innings at 1B) and never walks (4.4 BB% ranks 199th of 202 batters with at least 1,500 PA from 2019-22). His profile is entirely dependent on his batted ball results.

Mets signing Sean Manaea for 2/28. Joins Severino (1/13), Bader (1/10,5), Jorge Lopez (1/2), Joey Wendle (1/2), Michael Tonkin (1/1) and Austin Adams (1/800K) among Stearns MLB free agent acquisitions so far. Also looks like former Brewers farmhands Victor Castaneda, Cam Robinson and Cooper Hummel have landed minor league deals from the Mets.

Pretty nuts deal. FG had 3/45 and MLBTR was at 4/80 for their predictions. Teoscar has some pop (99 HR since 2020 ranks 17th), but pretty crazy L/R splits at 161 wRC+ vs LHP compared to a 112 wRC+ vs RHP. Only a 105 wRC+ overall last year, but still was making loud contact with barrel and hard hit rates in the top 10-12% of MLB. Have to imagine under the Dodgers tutelage he gets back up around the 133 wRC+ he posted from 2020-22.

Of course it wouldn’t cripple the franchise, but $14M is almost 12% of a $120M payroll. If Hoskins wasn’t able to recapture his past level of performance, that would be a waste of finite resources which would limit the ability to make other moves, yes. The most recent multi year big money drains for the Brewers were Braun (4.8 WAR for $75M from 2017-20), Yelich (4.2 WAR for $48M from 2020-22) and Cain (1.0 WAR for $35M from 2021-22). That combined $158M represented about 28.7% of the Brewers $550M in OD Payroll from 2017-22. The combined 10.0 WAR they got for that investment represented about 4.44% of the Brewers 225 combined position player and pitcher WAR from 2017-22.

As the smallest market in Capitalist MLB, the Brewers ability to eat financial mistakes is considerably smaller than other teams. One bad long term FA contract could hinder the Brewers ability to compete for multiple seasons. I’d imagine both the 2021 and 2022 Brewers could have been better off if they didn’t have LoCain making $35M for 1.0 WAR. Free Agency is the least efficient use of funds in MLB, the Brewers need to maximize efficiency given their geographic and economic realities.

Wiemer, maybe. Bauers, unlikely. The better answers to that question would be Jackson Chourio and Tyler Black, who are both pretty exciting and difficult to overlook. Last year Adrian and Tyrone combined for 2.2 WAR, this year they project for 1.5 WAR. That kind of production shouldn’t be difficult to replace. Just last year we got 2.5 combined WAR from unheralded/maligned pick ups Rea and Perkins at the same positions.

Haase was also at 105 wRC+ over 732 PA from 2021-22. Obviously they both stunk last year, but if one of them can bounce back near their past performance at the plate, plus get the patented Brewers defensive boost behind it, they should have no problem replacing Caratini’s 1.1 WAR from last year.

TJ is pretty routine at this point, but TJ after a failed PRP and then two whole missed seasons adds some more uncertainty into the mix. Hitting that rehab timeline with no further setbacks would be a best case scenario, sure, but that’s rarely how pitching development timelines play out. That said, I agree the Phillies are unlikely to deal Painter because the ceiling is so high. They are also better positioned to gamble on it than the Brewers are. If he goes Sixto Sanchez on them, oh well, they can buy another FA pitcher. If he did the same for us, we just traded away our two best reload assets for nothing and set back the rebuild by howsoever many years. That’s why I think if the Brewers were to move both Burnes/Williams in one trade they would target a headliner with less risk in their profile and on a faster timeline than Painter. Casuals will be peeved no matter what if we deal Corbin/Devin, but if we deal them for a pitcher who is hurt and won’t even pitch this year…oh man, Brewers internet might explode and 69% of the ticket reps would probably quit.

I wouldn’t want any part of Castellanos, even if the Phils were kicking in cash. If you’re dealing Burnes/Devin, just go for maximum future value and don’t clog up the books with three years of dead money on a player who’s posted a 102 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR over his last 1,229 PA since turning 30. Painter has tremendous upside, but he missed all of 2023 after his PRP injection from the spring didn’t take which necessitated TJ in July, which will pretty much wipe out his whole 2024. Missing two straight years is a pretty big hit to his value for me. Abel is their only other prospect of note even close to MLB, and I’d actually value him above Painter just because at least he threw 112 IP last year. Control isn’t good (65 BB in those 112 IP) and FG scouting report notes his fastball has suboptimal shape. Apparently he has good spin on his breakers, but inconsistent mechanics limit his ability to do so consistently. Maybe the Brewers would view him as a guy their dev staff could help to reach his ceiling, but if we’re dealing both of Corbin/Williams, I would hope for a little more certainty from the headliners in the deal. Miller is pretty much their next best guy and he was just drafted last year, which speaks to the dearth of depth in their system. This blurb from his FG report should probably give Brewers fans pause as well… ”The power potential here is exciting and gives Miller an everyday player’s ceiling, but after Kieboom, Keston Hiura, and the rocky history of other hitters whose hand paths work like this, readers should know there’s hit tool risk here.“

Has it though? In each of the last two seasons and three of the last four full seasons the Brewers have set new payroll records. Despite ranking 30th in market size, their spending is typically around ten spots higher with OD payroll ranks of 17th, 19th, 19th and 20th the last four full seasons. The last seven years (2017-23) they have a .555 W% compared to a .469 W% from 2012-16 and a .526 W% during the Braun/Fielder years from 2007-11. Mark A's Brewers peaked in OD payroll rank at 13th in 2012 at $89M, a season they finished 83-79. If the Brewers wanted to open 2023 at 13th in payroll they would have had needed to spend $182M, or about $63M than they did.

FanGraphs depth charts currently has the Phillies bullpen first in MLB. Jose Alvarado (74 IP | 3.03 ERA | 3.34 FIP | 1.7 WAR) has essentially the same projection as Devin Williams (66 IP | 3.09 ERA | 3.26 FIP | 1.4 WAR).

MLBTR reporting that Michael Brantley has joined fellow 2008 Huntsville Stars Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel, Angel Salome, Matt LaPorta and Lorenzo Cain in retirement. Among 57 players with at least 5,000 PAs from 2011-22, Brantley came in at... 5646 PA (22nd) | 10.6 K% (1st) | .300 AVG (5th) | 121 wRC+ (24th) | 29.7 WAR (29th) | 90.6 Contact% (1st) | 3.9% SwStr% (57th) The word elite gets thrown around a lot, but Brantley was a truly elite contact hitter for over a decade.

Rhys Hoskins fun fact, his 1.194 OPS at Miller Family Stadium is his 3rd best OPS in any ballpark, and first best among parks where he has at least 15 PA. Considering he is likely to have a number of suitors, and will also probably want an opt out after year one, maybe something little like that could help him choose Milwaukee among a sea of what are likely to be similar contract offers. Then again, maybe not. Mitch Garver signed with Seattle and he is 0-31 career at Safeco.

Most of the potential needle moving is going to be dependent on the development of Chourio, Black, Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer, Turang, Gasser, Rodriguez, Misio, etc plus whatever decision they end up making on Burnes. When was the last time the Brewers made a “needle moving” FA signing?

They really don’t seem interested in anyone under the age of 37. Offseason 40 Man/Trade Acquisitions (2024 Age) Wade Miley (37) Colin Rea (33) Taylor Clarke (31) Eric Haase (31) Joe Ross (29) Jake Bauers (28) Bryan Hudson (27) Vinny Capra (27) Oliver Dunn (26) Blake Holub (25) Chad Patrick (25) Coleman Crow (23)

I guess I’m just not seeing what’s so confusing about the Brewers offseason. The bellwether move to determine the direction of the offseason was always going to be if Burnes was traded and/or what the return was. Since that hasn’t happened yet, they’ve done what they always do, turn over a bunch of rocks around the margins of the 40 Man hoping to find a few low key MLB contributors. The majority of FA at the 1B/DH spot that is the biggest need for the Brewers are still on the market. If one requires a coherent narrative it is that they are playing the middle so they have the flexibility to pursue multiple possibilities in either direction.

These two statements seem at odds with one another. Considering how quiet things have been on the Bauer front, how sure can we really be that someone is going to sign the guy? I wouldn’t be surprised if someone signs him, but I think that someone is more likely to be the Doosan Bears or Sugar Land Space Cowboys than it is an MLB club.

Since the Yankees went back to back in 1999-2000, 16 teams have won 23 different World Series. The only teams with multiple WS wins over the last 23 years are Boston (one tainted), San Fran, St. Louis and Houston (one tainted). The Dodgers have absolutely been the most dominant organization in MLB over the last eleven years with their 1031 - 650 record almost 100 wins better than the Yankees at 940 - 740. They've only one WS win (and two WS losses) despite that dominance because the MLB postseason is largely random. Being a World Series fetishist for any team, especially one as disadvantaged by geography and economics as the Brewers, is intentionally setting oneself up for misery on purpose.

Chourio was on fire in July at 388/447/718 For August and September he hit 277/326/434 in AA/AAA. Likely those Aug/Sep numbers would have been considerably worse in MLB.

Which sports franchises (or businesses in general) operate in this now only worry about the future later manner that you would like to see the Brewers emulate?

From May 1st through the end of the season, Matt Chapman hit 205/298/361 (84 wRC+) with a 29.8% K rate. That kind of offense wouldn't have helped the Brewers very much. His defensive metrics are also in decline over the last couple years compared to earlier in his career...+78 DRS and +48 OAA over his first 4,955 innings at 3B compared to +14 DRS and +5 OAA over his last 2,558 innings at 3B. If he could be had for say something like 4/80, sure sign me up. If he comes in closer to the 5/120 predicted by FanGraphs or the 6/150 predicted by MLBTR, I think that would be a drastic overpay which would have the potential to limit the Brewers ability to spend during what will hopefully be Chourio's prime years.