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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    The most famous recent case is prolly someone like Andrew Miller… Miller SP: 325 IP | 5.70 ERA Miller RP: 504 IP | 2.95 ERA Some Brewers that come to mind for me are guys like Adrian Houser, Jimmy Nelson or Jorge López… Houser SP: 371 IP | 4.31 ERA Houser RP: 56 IP | 1.76 ERA Nelson SP: 618 IP | 4.23 ERA Nelson RP: 43 IP | 2.47 ERA Lopez SP: 273 IP | 6.36 ERA Lopez RP: 148 IP | 3.77 ERA Or someone like Pomeranz who converted to RP for good with us in 2019… Pomeranz SP: 698 IP | 4.25 ERA Pomeranz RP: 160 IP | 2.42 ERA It’s still early yet, but Ashby is straddling that line somewhat so far in his young career… Ashby SP: 99 IP | 4.79 ERA Ashby RP: 39 IP | 3.66 ERA
  2. sveumrules
    Always liked Thornburg as one of the rare Melvin era pitching prospects to make it through. Was kind of a bummer how things shook out for him after the deal, believe he hurt his arm doing the Red Sox offseason throwing program? Guess it was kind of a bummer how things ended up for Travis too, losing it (getting figured out?) after a couple years as a Top 10 third baseman. Also flipped Dubon for Pomeranz so the Thronburg trade ended up having pretty sizable impact on one surprising almost made it out of nowhere year in 2017, the DC/NLCS in 2018 and then the crazy September Wild Card run in 2019.
  3. sveumrules
    BRef has the splits available, pretty even for Sal last year… Frelick 22 vs RHP: 396 PA | 890 OPS Frelick 22 vs LHP: 166 PA | 865 OPS
  4. sveumrules
    On the one hand comparing Frelick and Taylor is tricky. They’re two completely opposite hitters. One is (hopefully) high AVG/OBP with low ISO, the other is known low AVG/OBP with high ISO. But on the other hand, it really isn’t that tricky after all. We might have our aesthetic preferences, but ultimately production is production. The shape of that production is largely irrelevant to run scoring. Taylor has a 106 wRC+ for his career, if Frelick can beat that he’ll provide more value in the box. Last year there were 205 players with at least 400 PA. Among that sample there were 79 players with an ISO+ of 95 or below. Of those 79 players, only 20 had a wRC+ higher than Taylor’s 106 mark. Being an above average hitter with below average power is hard, Sal will have his work cut out for him. I’m excited to see if he’ll be one of the few that can pull it off.
  5. sveumrules
    Yeah, it’s pretty close. Splits so far with the Brewers… LF: 1489 PA | 123 wRC+ | 8.2 WAR RF: 854 PA | 173 wRC+ | 10.6 WAR DH: 207 PA | 78 wRC+ | -0.3 WAR GET THIS MAN BACK IN RF WOAH SOLVDD
  6. sveumrules
    Jenkins has the edge in raw OPS, but he also played in a more hitter friendly era and stadium. Once that is accounted for, Oglivie (124 OPS+) comes out a decent bit ahead of Jenkins (116 OPS+). I’d agree with @JimH5 on flipping Briggs/ Vaughn too. Their WAR totals with the Brewers are similar, but Briggs did it in like 300 fewer games / 1,500 less plate appearances on account of being all wheat & no chaff during his time in Milwaukee.
  7. sveumrules
    The Brewers won the 6th most games in MLB over the last five years. That’s quite a bit of actual winning regardless of payroll. Relative to the franchise’s history, yes, that is objectively the best they’ve done in 40 years. Sure, they didn’t win the World Series during Stearns tenure, only six teams did. That’s a pretty high bar to clear. If one’s threshold for an enjoyable Brewers season is “World Series”, they are setting themselves up for misery on purpose.
  8. sveumrules
    Obviously last year was ugly, but with sitting out 2020 Cain essentially chipped in somewhere between 11.7 bWAR and 8.5 fWAR for $64M. Kind of an interesting case to see where the two systems differ. Lorenzo had 1706 PA with the Brewers. BRef = 55, FG = 52.4 for replacement. He posted a 94 OPS+/96 wRC+. BRef = -3, FG = -7.8 for hitting, Positional Adjustment (+10 BRef, +5.2 FG) and Base Running (+10 BRef, +10.6 FG) are pretty close too. Big difference is on fielding where BRef has him at +49 versus only +20.7 on FanGraphs.
  9. sveumrules
    Which MLB owner made their fortune on the up and up? Hoarding enough wealth to be a billionaire in the first place is pretty shady in and of itself. I never let my portfolio get over 999 million, personally.
  10. sveumrules
    All these guys have their warts. Chafin has the longest track record of success (58 ERA- over his last 126 IP) but apparently teams aren’t buying it (89 xFIP- over those same 126 IP) or he’d be signed by now. Moore had a nice “breakout” season as a reliever, whoa a 50 ERA-. But that 74 FIP- makes it look like there was some luck involved and the 98 xFIP- makes it look like there was a lot of luck involved. Britton has the highest ceiling if he gets that sinker back, but with his age/injury history it’s gotta be pretty long odds at this point. Will Smith is & always will be the Fresh Prince of the Bullpen, but I’m not sure he’s a high leverage arm anymore at 89 ERA- | 104 FIP- | 98 xFIP- over his last 127 IP. If the front office decides to roll the dice on any of these guys I’ll trust they have their reasons, but I’m not sure they clear the Brewers threshold for out-of-options relievers.
  11. sveumrules
    They've spent TWO BILLION on payroll since 2010 to make the playoffs once and go 998-1006 overall. That is some expensive mediocrity.
  12. sveumrules
    Hall (95 OPS+ | 9.3 WAR) is an easy number five. Hernandez (96 OPS+ | 6.3 WAR), Counsell (75 OPS+ | 6.8 WAR) and Segura (81 OPS+ | 5.8 WAR) are in a tier of their own after that. Even Villar (96 OPS+ | 4.6 WAR) and Listach (71 OPS+ | 5.5 WAR) have a solid gap over Spiers (78 OPS+ | 2.7 WAR) who was essentially Arcia (75 OPS+ | 2.4 WAR), but on some bad teams.
  13. sveumrules
    Since 2020 Tyrone is one of 116 OF with at least 600 PA, essentially four per team. His 3.6 WAR ranks 61st ahead of Conforto (3.5), Haniger (3.3), Profar (3.1), Castellanos (3.0), Avisail (2.8), Joc (2.2), Bellinger (2.1), etc. Considering all those guys (minus Jurickson) are making $13M+ and they all (minus Conforto) needed hundreds more PAs to accrue their WAR, I’d say TT is a perfectly cromulent starting option at less than $1M.
  14. sveumrules
    Going through the schedule & where the days off fall it looks like there would be about 20 games that would require a sixth starter. If all goes well (it won’t) could line it up something like Burnes/Woody (33 GS), Freddy/Lauer/Miley (25 GS), which leaves 21 games for some combo of Houser/Ashby. Opening the season with Adrian & Aaron in the pen stretched out for multi inning work would make me feel a lot better about the relief corps.
  15. sveumrules
    Davis was on the roster from June 18 to August 26 posting 0.5 WAR and +0.21 WPA in his 91 PAs. Getting positive contributions in a small sample from their 6th OF didn’t cost them anything. Lorenzo Cain (-0.5 WAR | -1.73 WPA) has a much more substantial case for costing them a couple wins. Mitchell was hurt and did not play from May 14th through July 6th. He didn’t even get promoted to Nashville until August 2nd receiving only 85 PAs in AAA before getting called up. Given almost two months missed to injury & less than one month at AAA (plus the 41.2 K% in MLB), I think there is a better case that Mitchell was rushed than there is that he was held down for any kind of service time reasons.
  16. sveumrules
    Not sure I follow, from 2017-22 the Brewers were at +55.7 UZR (5th), +56.4 FRM (3rd), +58 OAA (6th) and +189 DRS (4th). Stearns and company have always placed an emphasis on defense.
  17. sveumrules
    Turang would give them the legit defensive SS they’re currently lacking for sure. Between the Marlins dire SS situation and Red Sox losing Story, Boras might just get a bidding war going for Elvis Andrus.
  18. sveumrules
    Had the same thought & it looks like Byron was born one day after Jaison in a different VZ city. That would be a pretty crazy twins story.
  19. sveumrules
    Apparently after this deal Marlins are planning to play… Arraez (best position 1B) at 2B Wendle (best position 2B) at SS Segura (best position 2B) at 3B Chisolm (best position 2B) at CF
  20. sveumrules
    Show us on the Bernie Brewer plush doll where Mark A hurt you
  21. sveumrules
    Molitor is the best 2B and 3B just like Yount is the best SS and CF in franchise history. Sure, that might be tricky filling out a lineup card (give me Cirillo at 3B & Gomez in CF), but for the purpose of lists like these I don’t think there’s anything wrong with the players who were objectively the best at each position to be in the #1 spot for that position.
  22. sveumrules
    Chapman’s offense resulted in a 30 day suspension. Bauer was originally slated for 324 days before the arbitrator knocked it down to 194. MLB appears to believe Bauer’s actions were considerably worse.
  23. sveumrules
    01 Molitor (116 OPS+ and 12.1 WAR as primary 2B from 78-80) 02 Gantner (Longevity King, 22.4 WAR with +36 FLD) 03 Weeks (12.4 WAR with the -115 FLD killing most of the value his bat provided) 04 Wong (114 OPS+ and 6.4 WAR) 05 Randolph (126 OPS+ and 4.3 WAR) HM: Loretta (92 OPS+ | 5.9 WAR), Vina (90 OPS+ | 6.0 WAR), Belliard (90 OPS+ | 5.8 WAR)
  24. sveumrules
    What kind of late inning reliever is signing for that kind of money on a one year deal? Looking at the FA tracker for this offseason the only RPs to sign in that range are Mychal Givens, Pierce Johnson and Miguel Castro.
  25. sveumrules
    I was trying to thread the needle between being enough money that it would be tempting/fair value and also being able to hit FA at the end of the extension potentially having a shot at one last multi year deal to close out their careers.
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