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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Made singled, stole second and scored on an Adamczewski single to get the TRats on the board bottom one.
  2. sveumrules
    Haase has been DFA’d twice as a Brewer and none of the other 29 organizations claimed him either time. Don’t need a magnifying glass to read between those lines. The only team that thought Haase was worth a 40 man spot the last two years thinks that Jansen is better. Given their history with player evaluation I’m inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt.
  3. sveumrules
    Cam Devanney getting called up by the Pirates. MLBTR article notes that he was called up for a brief spell with the Royals earlier this year but did not get into a game.
  4. sveumrules
    Still dominating AAA, among 194 pitchers in the International League with at least 40 IP his 1.04 ERA is the lowest and his 2.64 FIP is 4th lowest. He’s also the only pitcher in the International League with at least 40 IP not to allow an HR all year. Hasn’t shown enough command to stick in his MLB looks though. Maybe he gets another shot in September.
  5. sveumrules
    Yeah, in a macro sense I tend to think of defensive metrics along the same line as reliever stats in terms of volatility. The first issue seems to be just how much defense is worth to begin with. Looking at 2023 to present DRS and FRV both agree that the Brewers have been the second best defensive team in baseball, but have they saved 156 runs (DRS) or 87 runs (FRV)? That is a pretty big difference. DRS thinks from 2023 to present the range of defensive value on a team level goes from +208 (TOR) down to -176 (CHW), but FRV has a much narrower scope at +88 down to -109 (also TOR and CHW). Anecdotally it feels like the two systems tend to align more on outfielders and corner infielders, but have more divergent opinions on middle infielders. Brewers with at least 1,000 innings since 2023... 2B Turang (+44 DRS | -5 FRV) SS Adames (-8 DRS | +12 FRV) 1B Hoskins (-1 DRS | -2 FRV) 3B Ortiz (+8 DRS | +8 FRV) SS Ortiz (-2 DRS | +8 FRV) OF Frelick (+25 DRS | +17 FRV) OF Chourio (+10 DRS | +10 FRV) OF Yelich (-6 DRS | -9 FRV) OF Perkins (+19 DRS | +18 FRV) OF Wiemer (+7 DRS | +9 FRV)
  6. sveumrules
    Probably because he's a bat only prospect with no real defensive home. Was also old for his class. Braylon Payne was born 8/14/06, Fielder was born 8/17/04.
  7. sveumrules
    Here are White's approximate values from PFR for 1986-92 with PHI then 1993-98 with GB... PHI: 19, 15, 19, 18, 17, 19, 15 GB: 15, 15, 15, 18, 15, 16 He was diminished from his peak as a younger man, sure, but hardly a shell. He's the oldest DPOY winner ever at age 37 in 1998 and was 1st or 2nd team All Pro each of his six years with the Packers so he was playing at a top level right up until the end. Would love it if Parsons topped Reggie's 68.5 sacks and 94 AV over six years with the Packers, but that is a pretty tall ask. Anchor a defense that wins one SB and he'd put himself right there with Woodson (DPOY, 4 of 7 years 1st or 2nd team AP, 74 AV) for me, but I give Reggie extra credit for the intangibles & culture change he helped kick off so Parsons would pretty much need to anchor two SB winning defenses for me to put him over Reggie in terms of impact.
  8. sveumrules
    Yeah, Reggie got us to two Super Bowls, anchored defenses that ranked 4th, 4th, 1st, and 5th in points allowed over a four year stretch, and capped it off with a DPOY (plus all the intangibles). Gonna be hard for anyone to match that impact but if Parsons can help get the Pack back to the SB that’d be a good start.
  9. sveumrules
    DRS was definitely lower on Ortiz at SS earlier in the year. Believe he was down around -5 or -7 at one point but it has been creeping up as the season has gone on. Wonder if part of that is a function of how high DRS is on Turang? Turang 2024 +22 DRS | +4 FRV Adames 2024 -16 DRS | 0 FRV Turang 2025 +9 DRS | -1 FRV Ortiz 2025 -2 DRS | +8 FRV In 2024 DRS thought the Brewers were +6 aggregate at SS/2B compared to +4 aggregate by FRV, pretty close on the back end just way different accounting to get there. So far this year both systems are +7 aggregate, but again with different accounting. Agree that Ortiz is a clearly better fielder than Mona. FanGraphs uses FRV in their WAR calcs and with positional adjustment included they have Ortiz as the 14th most valuable defender in MLB over the last two years at +22.8 DEF. Kinda interesting that the two guys on either side of him - Andres Gimenez (+23.4 DEF) and Ke’Bryan Hayes (+22.4 DEF) - signed $106.5M and $70M extensions respectively. By no means suggesting the Brewers do the same with Joey, but does a pretty good job illustrating how valuable his defense is.
  10. sveumrules
    Last year he had a 23 ERA- | 33 FIP- over 57 IP with most of that dominance coming in Wisco and Biloxi where he ran K rates north of 40%. This year he’s at a 19 ERA- | 56 FIP- all at Nashville. Out of 190 International League pitchers with at least 40 IP he has the lowest ERA and 3rd lowest FIP entering tonight. Thats still pretty elite stuff. With the ER surrendered tonight he has 34 zeroes and five 1 ER games in his 39 AAA outings.
  11. sveumrules
    Yeah, went back and checked the game thread from 08/01 and no one mentioned him coming off the field holding his elbow or anything ominous like we’ve seen too many times before, so that’s good. Also listed as active on his MiLB player page (versus being placed on the IL), so I’ll take that as a good sign too. Hopefully just a planned shutdown like you alluded to or a minor tweak of some kind.
  12. sveumrules
    Welcome to the site. Looks like he last pitched August 1st, so yeah, almost a month now. Can’t recall hearing anything specific, and the org is usually not very forthcoming with minor league injury news / updates, but maybe one of the more looped in posters here has some info?
  13. sveumrules
    Ortiz 3B (1115 innings) +9 DRS | +8 FRV Mona 3B (662 innings) +5 DRS | -1 FRV Ortiz SS (1102 innings) -1 DRS | +8 FRV Mona SS (165 innings) -2 DRS | 0 FRV Outside of DRS at 3B they haven't really graded out too similarly. DRS at SS is close too, but Ortiz has over six times the innings that Mona does and DRS at SS also appears to be the outlier on Ortiz's advanced metrics.
  14. sveumrules
    Maybe not quite Parsons level, but Jacobs and McKinney were pretty impactful signings just last year.
  15. sveumrules
    My initial instinct was yes because they had been promoted together to Carolina and then Wisconsin. Made's performance has been on a whole other level than Pena since getting to Wisco though so I could see Made starting in Biloxi straightaway while Pena repeats Wisco to open the year with a potential midseason promotion to Biloxi if his performance merits it. Believe the Shuckers have one extra week of play after the T-Rats wrap things up, so could get a little bit of a clue if one or both get bumped up for that last week (& playoffs) similar to Chourio in 2022.
  16. sveumrules
    Adamczewsski has Luke Adams beat on wRC+ over the last two years (& alphabetically for whatever that is or isn't worth in tie breaker scenarios), but Luke has been raking for an extra year with his 148 wRC+ since 2023 tied with Xavier Isaac for the best mark in all of MiLB (min. 1000 PA) over the last three years. Not bad having two of the better hitters statistically in MiLB over the last couple two tree years and the system is so deep that they are both in the fringe Top Ten-ish sort of range.
  17. sveumrules
    Luis Pena outproduced Jesus Made in the DSL (173 to 167 wRC+) and with Carolina (139 to 122 wRC+), but Made's blazing 81 PA of 175 wRC+ with Wisco (compared to only a 71 wRC+ over 74 PA for Pena) has inched Jesus just ahead in their respective career lines... 297/406/462 (143 wRC+) 14.8 BB% | 18.1 K% 70 SB / 15 CS 318/386/491 (141 wRC+) 8.6 BB% | 13.2 K% 82 SB / 11 CS Just for fun, here is Chourio over his first two years, with the caveat that his overall numbers are dragged down a bit by his six games at AA to end 2022 where he put up a -30 wRC+ and 42.3 K% over those 26 PA... 290/355/512 (131 wRC+) 8.8 BB% | 23.2 K% 24 SB / 7 CS
  18. sveumrules
    An interesting tool set is great and all, but there are 87 Brewers with at least 100 PA on the island since 2021. Maybe big bonus guys like Pena (173 wRC+), Made (167 wRC+), and Chourio (130 wRC+) have skewed expectations somewhat, but even non-nuclear big bonus prospects like Yophery (124 wRC+), Di Turi (117 wRC+), and Quintana (110 wRC+) still managed above average batting lines in the DSL. Not to mention all the low bonus guys like Ortuno (157 wRC+), Anderson (147 wRC+). Ibarguen (139 wRC+), Nadal (131 wRC+), Rangel (130 wRC+), Polanco (129 wRC+), Juan Martinez (125 wRC+), et cetera that came out of nowhere to put up big lines. Fenelon's 95 wRC+ ranked 45th on that list, below even little Luis Lara with a 98 wRC+ in his DSL year. Antunez (79 wRC+ | 71st) and Acosta (77 wRC+ | 72nd) are waaay down there, especially for seven figure guys. Hard to classify their professional debuts as anything but disappointing in the context of the talent the DSL Academy has turned out of late. Doesn't mean they are doomed forever to irrelevance, just that their initial performance was below established standards compared to recent performances by similarly heralded (or even much less heralded prospects).
  19. sveumrules
    Win Probability Added agrees… Shelby +.254 Contreras +.247 Yelich +.162 Vaughn +.126 Misio +.113 Collins +.105 then on the other end of the spectrum… Koenig -.416
  20. sveumrules
    Would imagine voters are more likely to go off his 5.1 runs allowed WAR (tied for 3rd in NL with Wheeler) or his 4.4 WAR on BRef which is tied for 6th in the NL than his FIP based WAR. Old school voters could also be swayed by his impressive W/L record, especially if he manages to hit the elusive 20 wins. But yeah, Skenes and Sanchez should be an easy #1/#2 for NL CY and Freddy really only has a shot at #3 because Wheeler got hurt.
  21. sveumrules
    Can use a few different chronological dividing lines for the offense depending how one wants to do things to show their power growth as the season has gone on, using ISO which accounts for all extra base hits not just HR... First 46 Games 229/306/346 .117 ISO (28th) Last 86 Games 272/345/434 .162 ISO (16th) or... First 69 Games 234/313/361 .127 ISO (27th) Sal to Lead Off 282/352/450 .169 ISO (15th) or... First 90 Games 247/322/381 .135 ISO (26th) Vaughn gets Here 279/353/452 .173 ISO (12th) or... First 107 Games 252/325/387 .136 ISO (27th) Bill & Brice HR Surge 281/359/475 .194 ISO (8th)
  22. sveumrules
    Going through the game logs looks like Priester (x3), Peralta (x2), Quintana (x2), and Woodruff (x1) have combined for eight outings greater than 6.0 IP so it’s not completely out of the question!!
  23. sveumrules
    Sorry, don’t have any. Priester (5.4), Woody (5.5), Peralta (5.5) and Quintana (5.6) all average five to six innings per start. Misio (4.4) is four to five. Even with the shorter outings the Brewers are still 58 W - 26 L (.690 W%) when one of those five start the game.
  24. sveumrules
    The Brewers are still an MLB best 18 W - 6 L since the trade deadline, 2.5 games ahead of PHI. That includes a 3 W - 1 L record in the four games started by Misio and his fill ins. How much better do you think they could have realistically been? 19 W - 5 L instead?
  25. sveumrules
    I mean drawing a walk with no ISO is kinda the Brewers whole thing. Going back to Arnold’s first year in 2023 they are 3rd in walk rate and 25th in ISO (while scoring the 7th most runs and winning the 2nd most games in MLB). Seigler was hitting 263/370/263 (91 wRC+) in his 47 PA as a third baseman entering tonight, so Murph isn’t wrong in saying he has a knack for getting on base even if it has just been a neat trick with no ISO yet. His seasonal line is dragged down considerably by going 1 for 15 (2 BB) over 17 PA as a PH/DH/1B. They’ve also gone 11 W - 3 L in Seigler’s 14 much ballyhooed starts at 3B so his lack of ISO hasn’t really cost them too much so far.
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