sveumrules

Trend around MLB the last couple years has been to put the best hitters at the top of the order to get the most PAs. Last year out of the leadoff spot there were guys like Schwarber (691 PA | 38 HR), Henderson (544 PA | 31 HR), Lindor (500 PA | 26 HR) and Ohtani (419 PA | 35 HR). In total there were seven players with at least 20 HR batting in the #1 spot versus zero with 20 HR batting in the #5 spot (Stanton and Ozuna just missed at 19 each) in 2024. Last two years now the league average leadoff hitter (111 and 108 wRC+) has been better than the average clean up hitter (108 and 106 wRC+).

Trail Blazers wouldn't have accepted Khris in the Lillard trade because he was coming off injury and had only played 33 games the previous season. Jrue had way higher value leaguewide at that point for POR to flip for something more useful to their rebuild. Like most Championship Windows the Bucks closed when the clock hit zero and they hoisted the trophy. 2019 Kawhi 2020 Lebron 2021 Giannis 2022 Curry 2023 Jokic 2024 Celts If either of the #1 seeds (CLE or OKC) goes all the way this year that will be seven straight years now with different Champs since LBJ/GSW/SAS monopolized six straight Finals from 2013-18.

Ten different teams getting votes for Win AL Pennant versus only five for the NL is a pretty good illustration how top heavy the NL is versus how wide open the AL is.

Home Opener pre-game scoreboard montage will probably be an All Timer. Gonna have the whole stadium bawling into their $13 beers.

FanGraphs published their staff predictions today. Votes shook out like this… Cubs WinDiv (15) Brewers WinDiv (7) WildCard (3) Reds WinDiv (3) Cards WinDiv (1) Pirates WinDiv (0) Looks like Jay Jaffe and Ben Clemens were among the main writers who picked MIL to win the NLC. Contreras (2 votes) and Chourio (1 vote) got some NL MVP love too while Logan Henderson also picked up a vote for NL ROY. Nobody picked the Brewers to make the World Series. Dodgers vs Red Sox (6 votes) was the most predicted pairing.

Not sure how reliable it is (maybe he heard it from former FG scribe, current Brewers Director of Player Information August Fagerstrom??) but Longenhagen said Pena would be joining Jesus at Carolina in his latest chat.

Yeah, I'd have no issue at all going the Adames route with William, taking three years of (hopefully) top end production and then the pick when he leaves in FA. Guessing they'd prefer to give Quero most of this year in the minors, before breaking him in as a backup in MLB next year. If he looks up to the task that would give them a little more wiggle room to maybe trade William in his final Arby year.

My back of the napkin math here was since Contreras is a year younger than Raleigh that means a seven year contract takes him through the same age. But William has been better than Cal on top of that, so I'd think that means eight years at a higher AAV. I believe only four catchers have ever cracked $20M AAV - Yadi (3/60), Salvy (4/82), Mauer (8/184) and JTR (5/115.5). Maybe William would go for something like 8/175 on the low end? That would get him the 2nd largest total value, 3rd highest AAV and exactly double what his brother signed for,

One of Misiorowski or Yoho ends the season with the highest Win Probability Added in the bullpen.

There's been plenty of talk over the last couple years about how much it might cost to maybe extend William Contreras, if he's even interested in doing so before free agency, and/or if Mark A & the rest of the ownership group would even sign off on such an expenditure. I figured with Cal "Big Dumper" Raleigh signing a six year, $105M extension on the same free agency timeline as Contreras it's as good a time as any to put a bunch of information in one place and try to figure out what that number might be for William (& if it's even a good idea). Let's start with a comparison over the last two years... Contreras 1,290 PA | 128 wRC+ | 11.2 WAR 115 AVG+ | 129 BB+ | 91 K+ | 110 ISO+ +11 DRS | +17.7 FRM | 19.9 CS% Raleigh 1,197 PA | 115 wRC+ | 9.7 WAR 93 AVG+ | 126 BB+ | 122 K+ | 138 ISO+ +19 DRS | +21.2 FRM | 27.1 CS% Contreras comes out ahead mostly on account of being a better all around hitter versus Raleigh being more of an all or nothing 3TO guy. Raleigh has been a more consistent defender, especially with regards to controlling the run game. The other big factor is that Contreras is a year younger than Raleigh. FanGraphs had a nice article today on the Raleigh extension and the larger landscape of historical catcher compensation. In it they note that Cal is only the 5th catcher to ever sign a $100M+ deal, so I thought I'd see how past top end catcher contracts turned out, or are turning out for the active guys. Joe Mauer (8/184) Before (Age 21-27) 3,578 PA | 135 wRC+ | 34.3 WAR After (Age 28-35) 4,382 PA | 113 wRC+ | 19.2 WAR [Mauer got the concussion in the first year of his extension, had two more prime level seasons as a part time catcher in 2012-13, then settled in as a fine (but massively overpaid) first baseman for the last five years of the deal.] Buster Posey (9/167) Before (Age 23-25) 1,238 PA | 146 wRC+ | 15.4 WAR After (Age 26-34) 4,352 PA | 125 wRC+ | 42.7 WAR [Delivered big for the first five years of the deal, dipped down to above average level in 2018-19, came back for one last big year after skipping 2020.] Will Smith (10/140) Before (Age 24-28) 1,966 PA | 128 wRC+ | 15.7 WAR So Far (Age 29) 544 PA | 111 wRC+ | 2.7 WAR [Smith's wRC+ has been arrow down pretty much from the jump with a combined 143 wRC+ over his small samples in 2019-20 then a 130 in 2021, 127 in 2022, 118 in 2023, 111 last year. It's the Dodgers so $14M a year for the next nine years is couch cushion change, but this isn't looking like a deal many of the other 29 teams would jump to take on even though he remains one of the Top 10 backstops in the game.] JT Realmuto (5/115.5) Before (Age 24-29) 2,910 PA | 110 wRC+ | 19.4 WAR So Far (Age 30-33) 2,052 PA | 112 wRC+ | 15.4 WAR [JTR had two prime level seasons to start his record AAV deal, and has followed it up with two closer to average ones heading into his walk year.] *Yasmani Grandal (5/91.25)* Before (Age 25-29) 2,326 PAs | 115 wRC+ | 23.4 WAR After (Age 30-34) 1,982 PA | 109 wRC+ | 10.4 WAR [This one's kinda cheating since the 5/91.25 is combining two separate contracts and was actually closer to $80M after accounting for the pro-rated 2020, but Yasmani essentially kept rolling for the first three years of big money before falling off the cliff for ages 33-34. He had a nice bounce back last year in a part time role with PIT but remains unsigned.] So, taking all that into account, it looks like counting on even the very best catchers to be productive much past their 30th birthday is a dicey proposition. As far as how much Contreras would want to sign on the dotted line? I think he wants the total money and AAV records which at this point would essentially be 8/200. An MVP calibre season (followed by some postseason heroics, but lets not get too far ahead of ourselves) would go a long way in adding to that pursuit.

During the 39 games after the 2 W - 8 L start, but before acquiring Kuzma the Bucks went 25 W - 14 L (.641 W%) with a 114.7 oRTG (9th) | 111.4 dRTG (8th) | +3.3 netRTG (8th). During the 22 games since Kuzma's first game the Bucks are 13 W - 9 L (.591 W%) with a 114.5 oRTG (17th) | 110.9 dRTG (4th) | +3.6 netRTG (9th). I think the biggest factor for the trade was it got us below the 2nd apron or whatever, under the older less restrictive CBA I think there is a better chance they just keep Khris and roll the dice with what was "working". Next biggest factor was just availability. Kuzma has played all 22 games totaling 729 minutes since the deal. Obviously there has been some load management going on, but Middleton's only played 13 games and 295 minutes for the Wiz. Playoffs are about defense and they've been better defensively since Kuzma (& Porter Jr.) arrived. I still think 2nd round is the realistic ceiling for this squad, but I do think they improved their odds of making an improbable run (while improving future flexibility at the same time) ever so slightly. I'm not contending that the Bucks are any kind of high-functioning organization, they clearly aren't. But I do believe their deadline was purposeful and they mostly accomplished what they set out to given the corner they backed themselves into (out of necessity at the behest of Giannis).

Hey @MudcatsfaninBrunsCO, I was looking to maybe hit up some games this summer for the last season at Five County, but Google Maps is telling me the closest hotel is like a 15 minute drive away in Knightdale or Wilson. You know of any place closer or within walking distance of the stadium?

Peralta ERA by month 2024 Apr: 3.21 May: 4.08 Jun: 4.26 Jul: 4.10 Aug: 2.89 Sep: 3.55 Cortes ERA by month 2024 Apr: 3.86 May: 2.48 Jun: 3.97 Jul: 6.93 Aug: 2.49 Sep: 2.79 Looks like Nestor's performance was even more volatile than Freddy's last year.

There are only a handful of true aces at any given time, so most teams' aces are by default. We know Freddy isn't an ace, but what is he then? I think most would agree we've had five true aces in franchise history - Higuera (71 ERA- | 76 FIP- from 1986-88), Sheets (75 ERA- | 71 FIP- from 2004-08), Sabathia (39 ERA- | 56 FIP-), Burnes (68 ERA- | 67 FIP- from 2020-23) and Woodruff (69 ERA- | 72 FIP- from 2019-23). He didn't keep it up for his whole career with the Brewers (109 ERA- | 116 FIP- from 1980-84), but Mike Caldwell also had a two year mini-ace run with a 70 ERA- | 82 FIP- from 1978-79. When it comes to rounding out the Top Ten, Freddy (83 ERA- | 86 FIP- from 2021-24) fits in pretty nicely next to a couple other guys who were aces by default in Gallardo (89 ERA- | 88 FIP- from 2007-12) and Bosio (86 ERA- | 89 FIP- from 1988-92). But what does that mean today? Looking at Steamer projections they have Freddy down for 3.1 WAR making him a Top 25 pitcher in MLB. Some other guys in his neighborhood are $182M Blake Snell (3.4), $218M Max Fried (3.3), $56M Sandy Alcantara (3.3), $172M Aaron Nola (3.2), $75M Spencer Strider (3.2), $325M Yoshi Yamamoto (3.1), $53M Shota Imanga (2.9), $53M Hunter Greene (2.8), $162M Carlos Rodon (2.7). Last year his 3.5 rWAR was good for Top 30 status. Other guys in his neighborhood included Dylan Cease (3.8), Michael King (3.7), Tanner Bibbee (3.5), Tobias Myers (3.5), Ranger Suarez (3.4), Nestor Cortes (3.3), Nick Martinez (3.3), Zac Gallen (3.2), Luis Gil (3.2), Tyler Glasnow (3.2), Garrett Crochet (3.1), Justin Steele (3.1), Jose Quintana (3.0). So not an ace, just a Top 10 starter in franchise history and around the 25 to 30's or so currently in the same general range as a bunch of guys making a lot more money.

It could be viewed as a disappointment, but we always knew there would be some element of competition for the 3B/backup IF spot and Dunn/Capra flat out won. Nestor was the guy in the trade we got for 2025. Might be mis-remembering, but I feel like there was quite a bit of uncertainty as to Caleb’s MLB readiness at the time he was acquired. I’d say he qualifies as both a future prospect and someone who could still contribute this year. Ultimately my view is that having the organizational depth to start Durbin (& Black & Misio & etc) in AAA is a good thing. It wasn’t too long ago guys of their ilk would have been rushed up early for lack of better options.

Oh man, that is a lot to try and internalize. 1/2 a point for every out definitely favors starters who would get 7.5 points for an "average" outing of 5 IP versus relievers only getting 1.5 points for an "average" outing of 1 IP. The -4 points for a loss is kind of interesting too. On a leaguewide level last year starting pitchers went 1,424 W - 1,584 L, whereas relievers came in at 1,005 W - 845 L, so wins/losses were awarded more favorably to relievers on a ratio basis anyway.

Relievers will (theoretically) help your ERA/WHIP a lot more than starters though, so there is a tradeoff there too. Not sure how your league is structured but I believe last time I played fantasy there were a certain amount of slots that had to be filled by SP/RP each week and also a minimum number of IP you needed on the season to prevent teams from stacking relievers too much.

666 wins since 2017 is 6th in MLB. Doesn't get much more devilish than that. If we've got Uecker pulling strings from the heavens above and dark magick rising up from the fiery depths below, this could be some kinda summer. Just to sneak one more triple six in for good (bad?) measure, I'll go with 96-66.

Yeah, .843 OPS vsRHP (375 PAs) and .837 OPS vsLHP (143 PAs) last year. 2023 at Biloxi he was more of a lefty killer with a 1.098 OPS in 129 PAs compared to a .703 OPS vsRHP (256 PAs).

Your valuation is perfectly reasonable and sounds most like their respective Baseball America Top 100 rankings with Mayo at #29 and Misio at #44. I think the Orioles position would be more in line with their MLB rankings of Mayo (#14) and Misio (#100) so it would take something better than Lara/Quintana to close that gap for BAL. Ideally someone who could impact the MLB team for them this year. Frelick wouldn't really do much for them this year with Mullins in CF, and not sure how much interest the Brewers would have in moving Sal given their tenuous OF depth situation with Perkins already out for a bit, Yelich/Mitchell having lengthy injury histories and limited OF options in the upper levels.

Gotta imagine EBJ sees a lot of time at 2B and CF this year if Pratt is playing SS five six days a week in Biloxi.

Nice. Had to leave before it was over so missed that one. I had a unanswered question in asking what he thought about the Shane Smith / Connor Thomas gambit, but noticed in another answer he still thinks Smith is a reliever long term.

Couple notes on Brewers prospects in the FanGraphs chat today... Jace, the Mind Sculptor Is Jack Hostetler going to be a thing? Any other totally off the radar guys popping up this spring? Eric A Longenhagen Yes, he's a thing. Milwaukee dev churning them out. 97-98, plus-flashing changeup, breaking balls are below average. Undrafted out of Whitman. Good for them/him. Bishop Letson and Tyson Hardin also arrow up guys in Brewers camp Andy Your write up of Jesus Made said he is arguably priority number 1 for you on the backfields during spring training. What have you seen from him? Eric A Longenhagen It's real. Medium framed guy, great bat speed and rotational explosion from both sides of the plate, skilled defender with enough arm for the left side. He and Luis Pena are both gonna break camp with the Low-A roster and I agree that's correct for both.

Yeah, lots of ways Pratt could still go. How about a JJ Hardy comp? I'd take an eight year run with 4600 PAs of 96 wRC+ and 24.1 WAR like JJ put up from 2007-14. Not sure it's reasonable to project Pratt to be a Top 5 or so defensive SS of the SABR era like Hardy has been to this point, but essentially the rough framework is something like league average offense with plus SS defense shakes out to around three WAR or so annually. Obviously plenty of time to add some ceiling with the bat still, but even if Cooper "only" ever ends up in the neighborhood of Dansby (101 wRC+ and 24.7 WAR over 3922 PAs from 2018-present) or JJ that would still be a really successful outcome and doesn't seem like too much of a stretch given what he's shown so far.

I thought the contribution was positive. OP stated the Pirates lost Jones to a Tommy John injury, which isn’t entirely accurate. so @SF70 clarified things.