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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Bohm blossomed for one month last year with a 184 wRC+ and 1.8 WAR in April followed by a 96 wRC+ (way more in line with his 103 career mark) and 1.7 WAR from May thru the end of the year. His September was particularly brutal with a 37 wRC+. Williams has 9.3 rWAR and +14.24 WPA for his career. Bohm has 7.7 WAR. Looking at the last two years, even with the missed time, Devin still comes in at 4.3 rWAR and +6.18 WPA compared to 5.0 WAR for Alec. Phillies are also rumored to be in on Bregman which could free them up to move Bohm. Ultimately the math comes down to two years of Bohm projected for about 5.0 WAR total at say around $20M in Arby’s is something like $30M in excess value at $10M per win. In his last two full seasons Devin put up +3.46 and +4.09 WPA. If you value him at 3.5 wins with an $8M award in Arby’s that comes out to $27M in excess value.
  2. sveumrules
    I counted three miracles.
  3. sveumrules
    My divvying up of starts for the current Brewers position players would be something like... Ca: Contreras (100) Haase (31) Quero (31 as late season call up) 1B: Hoskins (100) Black (62) 2B: Turang (108) Monasterio (54) SS: Ortiz (135) Turang (27) 3B: NEW GUY (135) Frelick (27) LF: Chourio (120) Yelich (42) CF: Mitchell (120) Perkins (42) RF: Frelick (90) Perkins (37) Chourio (35) DH: Yelich (80) Contreras (45) Hoskins (20) Black (17) Just need to figure out who that NEW GUY is gonna be and hopefully improve the backup IF as well to upgrade on the Monasterio spot and help ensure Murphy keeps Frelick on the OF grass.
  4. sveumrules
    Not sure how they handle deferred money either, like I'm pretty sure Braun is still getting $2M annually for another half decade or so, think Cain is at $1M each for a few more years. Garza, Lohse, and Aramis all appear to have been paid in full at this point.
  5. sveumrules
    We'll never forget you, Brent. With only day of service time and six innings pitched I believe Chris Saenz retains rookie eligibility.
  6. sveumrules
    Bears had an extra 12:40 in time of possession and ran twenty five more plays than the Packers, but it only resulted in twenty five additional yards and one fewer point. Gotta be pretty frustrating.
  7. sveumrules
    MLBTR predicted 2/36. Median at FanGraphs was 3/54. Ben Clemens predicted 5/90 which seems pretty nuts but some interesting notes from his profile in the FG Top 50 FAs article… “Oh yeah, and he hasn’t turned 28 yet...I’m a lot less worried about one of the youngest free agents on the market – the youngest other than Soto, in fact” ”Over the All-Star break, he shored up his swing at a Tampa hitting facility that he co-owns; Statcast’s bat tracking data tells us he shortened his swing slightly, added a bit of bat speed and tapped into his fast swing more frequently, improving his quality of contact. He hit .292/.361/.419 (124 wRC+) in the second half while cutting his strikeout rate from 22.6% to 17.5%, and thrived upon being restored to the leadoff role; from August 16 onward, he hit .313/.386/.454. His 142 wRC+ in that span surpassed even teammate Juan Soto, and he carried that momentum into October.” As far as the Brewers are concerned, I would guess they won’t have much interest even if Gleyber comes in on the lower end of the predicted contracts. Among 26 second basemen with at least 1,000 innings the last two years Gleyber comes in at -15 DRS | 24th and -8 FRV | 23rd.
  8. sveumrules
    Maybe SM or JZ can provide more on the scouting side but Hayden Robinson (2023 round 14) had a nice run in Arizona with 26 K | 7 BB over 18.2 IP of 2.41 ERA work before going on the injured list. His last two outings were particularly impressive at a combined 8 IP | 1 ER | 3 H | 1 BB | 1 HBP | 16 K Believe this highlight reel from Brewers PD was the only real look we got before he went down…
  9. sveumrules
    Yeah, CK was at an 11.1 BB% over age 20 to 22 and was down to 4.4% for age 25 to 30. Wheeler was another one that popped to mind. Looks like he was at a 10.2 BB% ages 23-24, missed two whole years injured and has been at 6.0% from age 28 to 34. Burnes even kinda fits with an 8.8 BB% age 23 to 25 followed by a 5.8% for ages 26-27. Big Unit is the all time example with a 14.8 BB% from age 25 to 28 followed by a 7.4% from age 29 to 41. Or Koufax for the old heads with a 13.3 BB% age 19 to 24 followed by a 6.4% age 25 to 30.
  10. sveumrules
    Only real issue for Sasaki to this point has been durability with 53 games and 331 innings his last three seasons. For comparison Yamamoto had 76 games and 557 innings in his three seasons prior to posting. Here’s how they compare in some other categories… Roki (331.1 IP) 437 K | 72 BB | 6.07 K/BB 11.87 K9 | 1.96 BB9 10 HR | 0.27 HR9 214 H | .177 AVG Yoshi (557.2 IP) 587 K | 110 BB | 5.34 K/BB 9.47 K9 | 1.78 BB9 15 HR | 0.24 HR9 380 H | .185 AVG Pretty tight across the board outside of Sasaki’s strikeout rate being on a whole other level.
  11. sveumrules
    Funny thing about Wade is he represents a pretty good example of a realistic outcome for someone like Tyler Black. Since 2021 LaMonte has a 147 BB%+ paired with a 93 K%+ so he controls the zone. His 100 AVG+ and 101 ISO+ are as average as it gets though so the profile is almost entirely driven by the obscene walk rate. Glove limits him to 1B (where he’s been ok at +4 DRS | -3 FRV) or corner OF (where he’s been less than ok at -7 DRS | -6 FRV). Guess Black has better wheels. I’d just give those lefty 1B/DH PAs to Tyler and see what he’s got. Almost assuredly is a worse play for 2025 but also might be necessary to give him a tear off the band aid year if there’s any hope for him in 2026 and beyond.
  12. sveumrules
    Yeah, not sure how one year of Civale has more value than two years of Freddy or five years of Turang. I’d probably tier the Brewers trade assets something like… 01-02: Chourio, Contreras (Superstars) 03-07: Peralta, Misio, Made, Quero, Pratt (Top prospects plus Peralta on value deal) 08-12: Mitchell, Turang, Ortiz, Frelick, Myers (Established young MLBers with multiple years of control) 13: Williams (Elite closer only one year) 14-20: Ashby, Hall, Gasser, Henderson, Black, Yophery, Payne (here’s where it starts getting tricky. Think the four pitchers and Black are locks then went with Yophery and Payne as two of the higher ceilings on the farm but there’s probably a half dozen plus guys with similar value at that point on the list)
  13. sveumrules
    Hopefully it's good for (website) business at the very least!!
  14. sveumrules
    Kind of nice having the bye right around the midpoint of the season to assess where things stand. Offense (25.6 PPG | 9th) and defense (21.6 PPG | 11th) have both been playing right around Top Ten levels. Turnovers are a big plus on defense (19 | 2nd), but Love ripping off 10 INTs in only seven games has mitigated that somewhat and would be nice to clean up in the second half. Rush offense has also been among the best in the league at 154.8 YPG | 3rd so far. Looking at the remaining schedule the only surefire loss I see is at DET. I'd put SF and at MIN in the coin flip category. Pack should be favored in the remaining five so if they take care of business I'd say eleven or maybe twelve wins is where they end up.
  15. sveumrules
    Coming into the season I would have split up these first eleven games as such... WINS (4) CHI, atBRK, UTA, TOR LOSSES (3) atBOS, atNYK on B2B, BOS COINFLIP (4) atPHI, atMEM, CLE, atCLE They are 0 W- 3 L in their three losses. They are 1 W - 3 L in their coin flip games, but no one had CLE as an unbeatable 12 W - O L juggernaut (who Milwaukee has still played closer than anyone else twice, once no Giannis) to start the season. The only two true ugly losses against clearly inferior teams so far this year were CHI and atBRK in the 2nd and 3rd games of the season. Most of the 3 W - 8 L ugly start comes down to a stacked early schedule (MEM is even 5th in NetRtg so far), and no Khris who is admittedly more of a luxury item than an everyday staple at this point. Just get to the playoffs in the three to six range with a healthy Giannis, Dame, Khris trio and they've got as good a chance as anybody against BOS or CLE.
  16. sveumrules
    After winning their first game of the Emirates Cup last night Bucks are currently 2.5 games out of the #3 seed. If they can pull off the B2B with Detroit tonight that would be two in a row. Follow that up with a win at Charlotte on Saturday and it’d be an honest to goodness winning streak…it has happened before.
  17. sveumrules
    Yeah, not sure how well the Yankees really line up. Agree that Smith and Messinger are probably the two best pitching prospects they'd be willing to part with. Flores had a nice year but you have to really believe in the stick because it doesn't look like he has the goods behind the dish to be anything more than a third catcher in MLB. Not a guy that appears to be on any of their lists but looks like Trent Sellers was an UDFA who put up 83.2 IP of 2.26 ERA | 3.17 FIP work mostly at A+ with a 30.1 K% and .149 AVG against in his pro debut. Jesus Rodriguez (144 wRC+) put up a very similar season to Flores (149 wRC+) while being a year younger, with a way lower K rate (14.7% to 25.3%), and playing a little further up the defensive spectrum as a 3B/C with a better CS% than Flores.
  18. sveumrules
    Bohm’s bat is pretty borderline at 3B, it would be a negative at 1B outside of vs LHP or the one month he puts up a 1,050 OPS. His glove has also been pretty brutal at 1B with -6 DRS and -4 FRV in 802 career innings.
  19. sveumrules
    From 2021-23 Bohm put up -40 DRS | -7 FRV at 3B. Last year was his best by the metrics at an even zero DRS and +3 FRV. I think the Brewers would live with average-ish defense at 3B for a good enough bat, but is there enough boom in Bohm’s bat? His K rate has declined from 26.6% in 2021 to 14.2% last year so that’s good. But his walk rate (6.5% career, 6.6% in 2024) is pretty uninspiring and his 102 ISO+ the last two years is barely above average so he’s not really as much of a power bat as his stature might imply. The shape of his production at the plate was pretty suspect last year too with 118 PAs of 365/441/615 thru April 28th followed by 488 PAs of 260/305/409 to finish the year. His 132 wRC+ vs LHP the last two years would be a boost to the Brewers lefty woahs, but of course that means he has a much less impressive 101 wRC+ vs RHP over that same stretch.
  20. sveumrules
    Black was credited with three errors in the 79 innings he played at 3B last year. If the Brewers considered him a candidate to be a full time 3B at the MLB level his inning distribution would have been a lot less first base heavy, 637 innings. Black had more innings in the OF (103) than he did at 3B.
  21. sveumrules
    If it’s the Royals I would guess Noah Cameron and Nick Loftin would be the pair. Loftin has the mix of plate discipline and defensive chops the Brewers like. Cameron is a command and change up guy who has a fringy fastball, but apparently added a cutter this year and would provide additional rotation depth for 2025. Not sure if the Royals would be hesitant to deal Cameron since he’s somewhat of a local kid, Kudma and Wolters would probably be off the table as the top two arms in the system, maybe the Brewers would go for LHP Jordan Woods (high upside play on the complex) or RHP Steve Zobac (126 IP of 3.03 FIP between A+/AA last year) instead.
  22. sveumrules
    Misio had 79.2 IP at Biloxi last year and then another 17.2 at Nashville to finish the season.
  23. sveumrules
    Sasaki isn’t giving up three hundred plus million dollars to come to Milwaukee. I’m guessing his primary motivation is to win World Serieses with his countrymen.
  24. sveumrules
    It’s fun to dream on Sasaki but he’s foregoing three hundred plus million like Yamamoto just got by coming over early so I don’t think money will be much of a factor in his decision. Maybe Nori Aoki was his favourite player growing up and he’s a lifelong Brewer fan as a result. Maybe he’s generous of spirit and understands the most honorable thing to do would be to join a franchise that’s never won a WS before departing for large market riches in FA. Nah, he’s a Dodger.
  25. sveumrules
    Lenyn Sosa has -7 DRS | -2 FRV in 762 innings at 2B. At 3B its -5 DRS | -3 FRV in 482 innings. He’s even managed -2 DRS | -1 FRV in only 41 innings at SS. Throw in -1.4 career BsR and a minuscule 3.1 BB% and he has no soft skills at all. He’s going to need to run a 120 wRC+ minimum to ever have any value. That’s 55 points over his career 65 mark and 40 points over the 80 wRC+ he posted last year. Pass.
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