sveumrules

Looking at pitch usage, they’ve de-emphasized his splitter and slider in favor of more four seamers, cutters and sinkers… CIN: FA (33.8%) FC (17.2%) SP (21.2%) SI (16.4%) SL (11.4%) MIL: FA (41.0%) FC (20.5%) SP (10.8%) SI (23.2%) SL (4.6%) Run Values on the four seam and cutter have gone from -1.3 and -7.0 with the Reds to +2.1 each with the Brewers. It’s hard to measure command, but that’s what Location+ tries to do and Montas has improved slightly there too from 100 to 102. In terms of results it’s almost a complete script flip. His 85 K+ | 123 BB+ | 121 HR+ with the Reds were all on the wrong side of average. With the Brewers it’s been 105 K+ | 109 BB+ | 77 HR+

Eflin (35 ERA- | 72 FIP-) was shoving for the Orioles but just landed on the IL. Kikuchi (61 ERA- | 75 FIP-) has been a scooch better peripherally than Montas (62 ERA- | 86 FIP-). Lorenzen (67 ERA- | 115 FIP-) & Martin Perez (69 ERA- | 115 FIP-) have been in the neighborhood by run prevention but with ugly secondaries. Only two starts, but gotta throw one Bradley Blalock (68 ERA- | 69 FIP-) in there too.

Montas has posted a 2.57 ERA and the Brewers have won all four of his starts. Junis has a 5.40 ERA in 10 innings of low leverage relief work. Wiemer has hit 075/140/075 (-47 wRC+) in 43 AAA PAs with the Reds.

Brewers reliever depth is insane. Enoli Paredes, Rob Zastryzny and Kevin Herget have put up pretty ridiculous numbers in AAA and their brief MLB looks and still might not even make the cut for September and beyond... AAA combined 90.0 IP | 23 ER | 60 H | 32 BB+HBP | 125 K 2.30 ERA | 2.38 FIP | 1.02 WHIP MLB combined 33.0 IP | 5 ER | 17 H | 15 BB+HBP | 24 K 1.36 ERA | 3.43 FIP | 0.97 WHIP | +0.92 WPA

Obviously only four innings, but Yoho has a 0.01 FIP in Nashville. If he had one more strikeout it would be negative.

Hey, whaddya know, Brewers 17 W - 10 L record so far in the second half is tied for the 3rd best in all of MLB. In the 2nd half of 2018 they went 41 W - 24 L In the 2nd half of 2019 they went 42 W - 29 L In the 2nd half of 2021 they went 42 W - 28 L In the 2nd half of 2022 they went 36 W - 33 L In the 2nd half of 2023 they went 43 W - 28 L Guess it really shouldn't be that much of a surprise anymore. In the first half Brewers batters put up a 106 wRC+ (9th) | 4.80 R/G (8th) and 17.4 WAR (5th) so far in the second half they are at a 107 wRC+ (12th) | 4.74 R/G (9th) and 4.8 WAR (8th). In the first half Brewers SP posted a 101 ERA- (14th) and 6.5 rWAR (15th) so far in the second half they are at an 82 ERA- (5th) and 2.6 rWAR (9th). In the first half Brewers RP posted an 81 ERA- (4th) and +7.76 WPA (2nd) so far in the second half they are at a 67 ERA- (3rd) and +2.75 WPA (3rd).

The hyperbole was so over the top. My favorite was Heyman at the NY Post… Mets Landing Craig Counsell As Next Manager An Absolute Necessity

Looks like Hall had a decent start from the box anyway… 6.0 IP | 1 R | 2 each H, BB, HBP | 4 K

Sweep of Cleveland improves the Brewers MLB best inter-league record to 29 W - 14 L.

438 innings in LF he is +5 DRS and -1 FRV. 453 innings in RF he is +9 DRS and +7 FRV. Among 93 OF with at least 500 innings this year his +14 DRS is 3rd and his +6 FRV tied for 16th. SABR Defensive Index which is used for Gold Glove purposes has him the top RF in the MLB at +7.9.

Good observation. Currently on pace for the first season since 2014 where there is no 100 Win team. There was a pretty decent article on the topic at Yahoo the other day that looked at some possible reasons why like injuries, new balanced schedule, and team building philosophies.

Had the same thought sequence last night when I was flipping to LAD/STL on commercials. Like, what kind of world are we living in where I’m hoping the Cardinals win a game in mid-August? FanGraphs has our chances of losing the division at 3.2% but out chances of securing the bye at 20.9% so for the next two days it’s Go Cards, I guess.

Today presents as the toughest game in the series from a pitching standpoint. Bibee leads Guardians SP in virtually every category at 127.1 IP | 84 ERA- | 82 FIP- | 118 K+ | 72 BB+ | 94 AVG+ | 87 WHIP+ with Cleveland going 18 W - 5 L in his 23 starts. Three Headed Bullpen Monster of Clase / Gaddis / Smith hasn't pitched since Tuesday either so they should all be fresh and ready to go too. Also wanted to check back in on how the Brewers have continued to bounce back strong after their respective three game losing streaks so far this year... started at 10 W - 3 L (0 W - 3 L) 7 W - 2 L (0 W - 3 L) 3 W - 0 L (0 W - 3 L) 16 W - 9 L (0 W - 3 L) 8 W - 4 L (0 W - 3 L) 8 W - 2 L (0 W - 3 L) 2 W - 1 L (0 W - 3 L) 13 W - 7 L (0 W - 3 L) 3 W - 0 L Following their two italicized mini swoons of 3 W - 6 L from 0427 to 0506 and 2 W - 7 L from 0704 to 0713 they responded with their two longest extended winning stretches since the beginning of the season in bold. That's some pretty impressive resilience from a team with the second youngest position player group in MLB per BRef, a rotation that doesn't pitch enough innings, and an overworked bullpen of castoffs without their all world closer until three weeks ago.

Tonight was Kwan’s 31st game with 5 AB, it was only the second of those 31 games in which he failed to record a hit.

Looking at how the Brewers have performed post-ASB I think their ideal lineup would be something like this... Chourio (101 PA | 178 wRC+) Contreras (104 PA | 157 wRC+) Mitchell (76 PA | 98 wRC+) Adames (101 PA | 132 wRC+) Hoskins (87 PA | 130 wRC+) Sanchez (36 PA | 167 wRC+) Frelick (81 PA | 45 wRC+) Ortiz (94 PA | 65 wRC+) Turang (89 PA | 28 wRC+) Chourio is fast and the best player on the team give him the most PAs, Contreras is the best all around hitter, Mitchell is the best lefty at the moment so he gets third to break up all the righties, Adames/Hoskins are your best regular run producers, El Gary fits the same mold in a smaller sample, after that its the struggle bunch so just went LRL to split the lefties. Monasterio (21 PA | 147 wRC+) and Haase (20 PA | 169 wRC+) have both performed the small handful of times their names have been called, I'd be calling Andruw a little more often for sure given recent performance of Joey/Brice, keep Sanchez DH only and use Haase behind the dish for Contreras off days. Bauers (52 PA | 88 wRC+) has been Bauers. Zooming out a bit here is the league average wRC+ at each batting order spot for each of 2022, 2023 and 2024 so far (with the Brewers wRC+ and league rank this year in parentheses at the end)... Batting 1st 103, 111, 106 (90 | 22nd) Batting 2nd 115, 114, 114 (107 | 18th) Batting 3rd 116, 111, 118 (139 | 7th) Batting 4th 109, 108, 106 (125 | 6th) Batting 5th 98, 103, 103 (93 | 22nd) Batting 6th 96, 94, 93 (80 | 23rd) Batting 7th 90, 89, 95 (119 | 3rd) Batting 8th 87, 86, 84 (107 | 6th) Batting 9th 81, 81, 75 (99 | 1st) So leadoff, #5 and #6 have been the weak spots this year for the Brewers. Number two has been below average by lineup position but still above average overall. #3, #4 and the bottom three spots have been where most of their big gains have come from.

For sure. Among 160 relievers with at least 40 IP so far this year their Big Three have some pretty impressive rankings... Emmanuel Clase 16 ERA- (1st) | 51 FIP- (5th) | +4.80 WPA (1st) Hunter Gaddis 35 ERA- (5th) | 59 FIP- (13th) | +2.26 WPA (14th) Cade Smith 50 ERA- (18th) | 37 FIP- (1st) | +1.96 WPA (18th) That's three no doubt Top 20 relievers by performance this year with a fourth (Tim Herrin) paling somewhat by comparison despite a still pretty dang impressive 55 ERA- | 72 FIP- | +0.94 WPA.

CLE is 7-6 vs DET and only 5-5 vs the White Sox. KCR and MIN are the two teams that got the biggest ALC boost both going 12-1 against the Sox.

Two most impactful bullpens in MLB going at it…CLE (+11.24 WPA) MIL (+9.85 WPA) then a big ol gap down to ATL (+4.89 WPA) in third. Guardians relievers also sport the best peripherals in MLB (79 FIP-) versus the Brewers being closer to average (98 FIP-) in that regard. For all the consternation there’s been about a Brewers rotation that has put up a 99 ERA- (14th) and 8.1 rWAR (17th), Cleveland has really pushed the envelope on how bad a contenders starting pitchers can be with a 112 ERA- (25th) and 5.3 rWAR (24th). Both teams hitters have excelled with RISP - CLE (125 wRC+ | 5th) MIL (124 wRC+ | 6th) - but the Brewers have had a couple hundred extra such plate appearances at 1,303 (2nd) versus 1,100 (20th) for the Guardians. Should be a fun series between two pretty evenly matched organizations, heck going all the way back to 2017 they are only one win apart at 642 for MIL (6th) versus 641 for CLE (7th).

Probably the same thing lots of people say when looking at the Brewers roster… Who are these bleeping guys ?!?!?

Dodgers are way more aggressive in the zone for sure at 71.1 Z-Swing% (5th) versus the Brewers at 65.6% (30th). The Brewers selectivity leads to them making a smidge more contact in the zone though with an 85.9 Z-Contact% versus the Dodgers at 84.7%.

Walk rate LAD 9.8% MIL 9.6% Strikeout rate LAD 21.9% MIL 22.9% Chase rate MIL 28.5% LAD 29.1% Contact rate MIL 78.1% LAD 77.0% Swinging Strike rate MIL 9.8% LAD 10.8% All the approach numbers under the hood are pretty close too, the Brewers even have a small edge when it comes to not chasing pitches and making contact.

Coming into the game the Brewers were scoring 0.11 runs per game fewer than the Dodgers (4.83 vs 4.94), you may need to recalibrate what constitutes a AAA lineup.

Hall of Famers - 4 Triple AAAers - 6

Dodgers can't afford to make mistakes like that & hope to win when they are up against a team as good as the Brewers.

What were your expectations for Sal? He was billed as a guy with a good plate approach (121 BB+ | 72 K+) and hit tool (104 AVG+) , no power (52 ISO+), good wheels (22 SB | 3 CS), and good defense (+12 DRS | +10 OAA). He's pretty much been exactly as advertised.