sveumrules

For real. If the Brewers wanted dude they probably could have had him at some point for Hader or Burnes or Adames…and it’s never come together. Probably because the Brewers don’t value him all that highly.

Lenyn Sosa has -7 DRS | -2 FRV in 762 innings at 2B. At 3B its -5 DRS | -3 FRV in 482 innings. He’s even managed -2 DRS | -1 FRV in only 41 innings at SS. Throw in -1.4 career BsR and a minuscule 3.1 BB% and he has no soft skills at all. He’s going to need to run a 120 wRC+ minimum to ever have any value. That’s 55 points over his career 65 mark and 40 points over the 80 wRC+ he posted last year. Pass.

He "plays" 2B and 3B. From reading his scouting reports I don't think the Brewers would view him as a regular option at either spot though.

Bucks last ten games have been a pretty huge turnaround from the first ten... First Ten Games (2 W - 8 L) 110.6 oRTG (19th) 115.7 dRTG (22nd) -5.1 netRTG (22nd) Last Ten Games (9 W - 1 L) 117.6 oRTG (6th) 108.7 dRTG (6th) +8.9 netRTG (5th) Here are some select player splits over that stretch... DAME F10: 34.8 3P% | 6.6 APG L10: 39.4 3P% | 9.1 APG GIANNIS F10: 55.4 FT% | 5.2 APG L10: 67.3 FT% | 8.2 APG BROOK F10: 27.7 3P% | 1.0 SPG | 2.1 BPG L10: 42.9 3P% | 1.5 SPG | 2.7 BPG PLAY THE YOUNG GUYS MORE AJJ (15.6 MPG up to 21.3 MPG) AJG (15.6 MPG up to 24.3 MPG) SHOOTERS GONNA SHOOT TAUREAN (55.9 3P% up to 57.1 3P%) TRENT JR (23.1 3P% up to 52.1 3P%) BOBBY (26.7 3P% up to 43.8 3P%) That's a solid eight man rotation right there with Khris looming somewhere off in the distance. Only real negatives at this point are that Patty C has looked mostly washed and Delon Wright's minutes have been pretty blah.

Bucks up 22 heading to Q4 against the Pistons. Took until a minute left in Q3 for Giannis to miss his first shot after ten straight makes to open the game with four nice midrange jumpers in there.

I’d love to add a lefty masher like Grichuk, but I’m not sure how much of an OF he is at this point with declining innings totals of 1143 > 897 > 381 the last three years and -13 FRV over that stretch (though his -2 DRS is a little more neutral). Also think they’ll try to get Haase as much of his playing time as possible against southpaws with platoon splits of 104 wRC+ vs LHP | 83 wRC+ vs RHP going back to 2021 which will eat into the available DH vs LHP opportunities too. One of Brendan Rodgers few bright spots is a 128 wRC+ vs LHP going back to 2021. He’d probably be a more natural fit as an improvement over Monasterio to pair with Turang and his 65 wRC+ vs LHP last year (55 career).

Jimenez has -18 DRS and -22 FRV in 2,074 career innings in the OF. Between injury and being a brutal fielder he has only played a total of 349 innings in the OF the last three years combined. He's never played 1B. His wRC+ has gone from 143 to 100 to 78 the last three years. His xwOBA has gone from .365 to .314 to .300 the last three years. Can't run, can't field, can't hit. That's how he ended up with -0.9 WAR last year.

The team won five of Montas first six starts en route to a 19 W - 9 L month of August that essentially sealed the division. Over the first four months Brewers starters had 513 IP (30th) | 100 ERA- (15th) | 111 FIP- (24th) | 7.0 rWAR (16th) In the month of August it was 157 IP (6th) | 77 ERA- (2nd) | 101 FIP- (11th) | 3.6 rWAR (3rd). Myers. Peralta and Civale all contributed too no doubt but the Montas acquisition was kind of like Lebowski’s rug…it tied the whole rotation together.

Played 77 innings there in 2016 and another 103 in 2023, so not really. Don’t see the Brewers really having any interest, all the arrows are pointing the wrong direction last three years… BB% 14.4 to 10.5 to 9.8 K% 21.3 to 25.7 to 29.2 wRC+ 118 to 117 to 92 xwOBA .358 to .348 to .311 WAR 1.7 to 1.4 to 0.3

Out of 324 players with at least 500 PAs the last two years, Sal’s 1.3 Barrel% ranks 323rd. Definitely ugly, but Steven Kwan is 318th at 1.7% and Luis Arraez is 310th at 2.5% so it isn’t necessarily a death sentence.

Rea went unclaimed at $5.5M. No team was interested in picking him up off waivers at that salary so we can reasonably infer no team viewed him as an attractive trade piece.

He was drafted at #34, but his $2.1M bonus was almost 700K under slot so more in line with the value for picks #44/45. Bryce Meccage signed for $2.5M at pick #57. They were likely offering Chris Levonas similar or more at #67. I think the main thing working against Burke is just the depth of the system, Braylon Payne only debuted at #18 on the first voting post-draft before jumping to #11 with an electric small sample showing in AZ. Ernesto Martinez put up a 195 wRC+ over 201 PAs from July onward at Biloxi and couldn’t crack the Top 20.

Figured this was the most relevant place to drop this excerpt from an interview with Brenton Del Chiaro from today’s Sunday Notes at FanGraphs... “Fans of the Milwaukee Brewers will be especially interested in an interview that is slated to run here at FanGraphs tomorrow. In the latest installment of my Talks Hitting series, Brenton Del Chiaro will not only discuss hitting-development philosophies, he will address several of the organization’s top position player prospects. Recently promoted to assistant director of player development, Del Chiaro has served as Milwaukee’s minor league hitting coordinator for the past three seasons. As a teaser to tomorrow’s piece, I set aside what Del Chiaro had to say about highly-regarded catching prospect Jeferson Quero, who had season-ending surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder this past April. As fate would have it, Quero was injured in the first game of the 2024 campaign. “We missed that bat this year, I’ll tell you that much,” Del Chiaro told me. “It was an unfortunate injury. This is one of the players in our org that has the ability to put the barrel on the baseball. And he’s a true competitor. Bear-sized hands; they’re enormous. The bat is in the zone for a long time; there is a lot of depth through the zone. His ability to square up a baseball is what sets him apart from other catchers, or from other players in general. We’re hoping that there is a speedy recovery and we get that bat back on track.” According to the assistant director, hitting development differs somewhat for players at Quero’s position. Due to the multitude of defensive responsibilities, only so much time can be devoted to honing what happens in the batter’s box. “Managing the workload is probably priority number one,” said Del Chiaro. “When you get a premier batsman like Jeferson, who plays a premium position, the tweaks are going to be smaller. It’s going to be dosed a lot smaller than it’s going to be for an outfielder or a first baseman. A catcher’s workload is something you have to account for. If you can’t manage that workload, you’re going to bury that player.”

Painter is at #8 (FanGraphs), #12 (BA), #27 (BPro) and #32 (MLB) on the Top 100 lists. If the Phillies decided to deal him they’d get way better offers than Williams, Boeve and Koenig.

The 50th guy on MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agents was Spencer Turnbull with a one year, seven million prediction. They then listed 18 honorable mentions, none of them were Moncada. The 50th guy on FanGraphs Top 50 Free Agents was Kyle Gibson with a one year, nine million prediction. They ran a second article with nine guys who just missed the list, none of them were Moncada. These resources aren't infallible by any means, but they generally have pretty good bearings on the market. Maybe some team will roll the dice and give him a guaranteed deal, but given all the uncertainty around his health and with his last impactful season being all the way back in 2021 now I personally wouldn't give him anything more than a minor league deal with an invite to camp.

Not sure where you're pulling your numbers from, but I was looking at FanGraphs who have him pegged for 2.4 WAR over 528 PAs in 2023 and another 0.9 WAR last year in only 153 PAs after missing the first four plus months on account of injury.

My best guess is Burke starts out back in Wisco. Timeline could be anywhere from he goes bonkers across multiple levels and positions himself for a 2026/27 call up to he goes a year per level and won’t be in the convo until around 2028/29. I’d have him 3rd behind Tyler Black and Ernesto Martinez on the organizational 1B rankings, but he’s also behind Mike Boeve, Brock Wilken, Luke Adams and Eric Bitonti at the moment who are all ostensibly 3B but could end up as options at the soft corner in the long run.

I dunno, the first player that popped to mind as a comp for me was somebody that signed with a small market… Edman (2578 PAs) 263/317/408 (99 wRC+) 59 HR | 112 SB / 17 CS 6.3 BB% | 16.6 K% +24.0 BSR | +49.1 DEF LoCain 2013-17 (2672 PAs) 291/345/423 (108 wRC+) 49 HR | 110 SB / 24 CS 6.8 BB% | 18.3 K% +20.7 BSR | +55.1 DEF Pretty close across the board. Lorenzo was a better hitter entering FA but Edman is two years younger, can play SS/2B in addition to CF, and still didn’t beat the 5/80 Cain got all the way back in 2018.

Of the four guys you mentioned only Black has ever made a Top 100 list coming in between #46 and #70 depending on the source, and he has backtracked since those rankings. Of the four guys traded for Yelich Monte Harrison (#49 to #71) and Isan Diaz (#59 to #93) were in the same general range as Black plus there was also Lewis Brinson who was made eight different Too 100 lists between #12 and #18 before being dealt. Those packages aren’t really similar at all.

Edman is a “utility man”, sure, but his 16.0 WAR since debuting in 2019 is 47th in MLB over that stretch. Even discounting 2019 with the juiced ball he’s still at 3.3 WAR/600 PAs for the rest of his career. If he can maintain that pace over the next five years, heck even if he just notches 10 WAR. he’ll still be a steal for the Dodgers even before the deferrals push down his CBT hit.

Edman already had a $9.5M salary on the books for 2025, so $64.5M in new money over the additional four years (before all the accounting tricks).

The Bears last winning season was in 2018.. They’ve finished 3rd or 4th in five of the six years since with one Wildcard in an 8-8 year as their “high” point. The Brewers have won the 6th most games in MLB since 2018 with four Division wins (and zero losing full seasons) in there. The Bears are way more like the Pirates than the Brewers of late.

Teel sounds like more of a bat first lefty option who has struggled to control the running game a bit at AA/AAA with 100 SB / 25 CS (20.0 CS%) over 690 innings. Quero would be a perfect complement as the defensively tooled up - 51 SB / 27 CS (34.6 CS%) in 622 innings at AA - righty hitting option.

Steamer projects Casas for 124 wRC+ | 2.5 WAR next year which is a Top Ten projection at 1B for them. That’s right in line with the projections for guys like Alonso (125 wRC+ | 2.6 WAR) and Walker (119 wRC+ | 2.5 WAR) who are about to bank in free agency except Casas is only 25 and will be making significantly less money over the next four years under team control. Before graduating he had appeared on eleven different BA/MLB/BPro Top 100 lists peaking as high as two Top Twenty placements at #19 and #16. I wouldn’t personally do Henderson and Black for him because his defense at 1B is so bad he should probably be a DH only already, but if the Red Sox do put him on the market I’d guess they land a better haul than that anyway. Given the Red Sox catching situation, Connor Wong had a nice 110 wRC+ but a not so nice -14 DRS | -10 FRV | -11.5 FRM, my guess is any productive talks would have to start with Quero.

Yelich and Contreras are already going to eat into a large portion of the DH at bats. Last year they combined for 60 games in the DH spot, and with Yelich coming off injury that number is likely to be quite a bit higher in 2025, especially if the idea is to give Contreras more games there as well so he doesn't wear down. If we estimate 65 games for Yelich at DH and another 35 for Contreras, that leaves 224 games to be split between Hoskins and whoever else at 1B/DH. I would guess Goldy is going to want to go somewhere with a clearer path to regular playing time.