sveumrules

ONE) Since giving up 7 ER in his appearances on April 10th and April 14th, Megill has thrown 34 IP giving up only 5 ER for a 1.32 ERA that is the 6th lowest of 300 pitchers with at least 30 IP since April 16th. Anytime someone is running an ERA that low for that long they are due for a blow up. Scanning his game logs it looks like he has been trending towards that blow up even during this recent stretch of elite run prevention... 0416 to 0621 22 IP of 1.64 ERA | 1.41 xERA | 0.74 FIP 0622 to 0722 12 IP of 0.75 ERA | 3.83 xERA | 2.02 FIP That higher xERA over his last dozen innings is probably a pretty good indicator that he has been getting luckier of late. TWO) From 2013 to 2019 Yelich put up positive base running numbers every season en route to +30.5 BsR. In 2020 after shattering his knee cap he was at 0.0 BsR. From 2021 to 2025 Yelich was again positive on the bases every season to the tune of +19.1 BsR. So far this year he is at +0.5 BsR. His sprint speed has declined from the 80th percentile in 2024 (28.5 feet per second) to the 48th percentile this year (27.3 feet per second) per StatCast. He has been getting some breaks. Since returning for good from his back injury on May 17th Yelich has started 49 of 59 games. Would guess they will continue to give him occasional days off as he tries to regain his form. Arbitrary endpoint, sure, but going back to July 7th he's reached safely in 10 of 11 games played and is at 52 PA of 267/365/444 (125 wRC+) with an 11.5 BB% and 21.1 K% under the hood. From 2023 to 2025 he hit 279/366/460 (128 wRC+) with an 11.4 BB% and 22.9 K% under the hood. I know its anathema to suggest something even mildly positive about Yelich in the game threads (like his +1.27 Win Probability Added being 41st among 264 hitters with at least 200 PA this year) but maybe he is starting to feel a little better / more comfortable the farther out he gets from his injury?

Yeah, between their history of under-projecting the Brewers and the Brewers recent actual performance history that 31 W - 29 L feels more like a bottom 5% or bottom 10% outcome than a median projection. The Season to Date mode at FanGraphs projects them for a .603 W% rest of season getting them to that first 100 win season. I generally use the two options as kind of the low and high range for my expectations, and feels like that tracks pretty well for this year's team. Like they've been playing at a 101/102 win pace for the season as a whole, and a 108/109 win pace since the .500 start after the first 26 games, but I still think most Brewers fans would take the under on them actually winning 100 games.

Yeah, looks like their longest stretches of mediocrity or worse going back to 2024 are... 070124 to 080424 12 W - 15 L 090124 to 092924 13 W - 13 L 032725 to 051725 21 W - 25 L 081725 to 092825 19 W - 21 L 032626 to 042526 13 W - 13 L Even with the slow 21 W - 25 L start to 2025 they still rebounded to 32 W - 28 L by game 60 of the season. Last 60 games of 2024 they were 34 W - 26 L even with the poor July and a .500 September. The five combined stretches above end up at 78 W - 87 L for a .473 W% with those 165 games representing 38.7% of the 426 games they have played from 2024 thru yesterday. Of course that leaves a 176 W - 85 L record (.674 W%) for the other 261 games they have played since 2024. I don't think they'll necessarily maintain their current .627 W% rest of season, but a .600 W% (36 Wins) would get them their first 100 Win season in franchise history, and a .567 W% (34 Wins) would get them to a new franchise record. If they win 32 games rest of the way (.533 W%) they will end up with 96 wins which would be 13 wins ahead of the 83 W FanGraphs had them down for preseason, running their total to an even +100 Wins for the ten full seasons from 2016 thru 2026.

First of all, to see a bunch of (presumably) grown men, many of whom may even qualify as middle aged (or beyond) on an internet message board talking about their FEELINGS...now therein lies the true magic of baseball. I'm nearly verklempt just thinking about it. But for real though, I believe it was Tommy Lasorda who said something along the lines of every team wins 54 games and every team loses 54 games so it's really only a 54 game season. The actual breaks almost surely aren't that clean - good teams have more "easy" wins, bad teams have more "automatic" losses, mediocre teams have more games that hang in the balance - but sticking with Tommy's math (& after seeing how he treated umpires & the Philly Phanatic I know I certainly don't want to get into an argument with Lasorda) the Brewers went 82 W - 26 L (.759 W%) during Murphy's first two completed seasons as manager in those meaningful swing games. This year's model currently has 38 losses so they are are for sure losing at least another two dozen games (& if they don't I'll gladly be wrong). Their lead for the #2 seed is 4.5 Games, their lead in the Division is 7.0 Games. Traded away Peralta (6.1 rWAR), plus Durbin & Collins (2.6 WAR each). Quintana's 131 veteran innings out the door (1.8 rWAR). Priester hurt for the year (3.6 rWAR). Zerpa bad then hurt before the season even really began (-0.7 rWAR). Mess of 40 innings for Woodford, Kuhnel, Koenig (-0.4 rWAR each). Less than zero contributions for Rengifo (-0.7 WAR), Perkins (-0.6 WAR), Jones (-0.5 WAR), and even Sal (-0.2 WAR). That's 20.6 WAR in the red between losses from last season plus poor performances so far in this one (not to mention all the games Murphy has cost them batting Yelich leadoff, or playing Sal instead of Vaughn, or playing Vaughn instead of Lara, or playing Perkins at all, not to mention all the times he called upon the wrong reliever) and this team is still on a 100 plus win pace. Truly remarkable stuff.

Had noticed he had a couple nice outings recently in the boxes with 6 IP | 0 ER | 2 H | 3 BB | 10 K after positing 12 IP | 13 ER | 15 H | 12 BB | 16 K (with 7 wild pitches and 4 balks !!) over his first five appearances. Obviously small samples and scant glimpses all around when it comes to DSL pitchers but he's also listed at 6'5" 200 lbs and doesn't turn 18 until December so lots to like from little we've got to go on.

The Brewers gambled almost $40M on Woddruff these last three years. He threw 110 IP of 74 ERA- | 76 FIP- for 2.8 rWAR | 3.0 fWAR. Was that a good ROI within the typical $/WAR framework? Probably not, but the Brewers did go 15 W - 6 L in Woody's 21 starts so not all was lost. I still remember the early season IGT comment that "the qualifying offer debacle probably cost this team a real chance at a playoff spot." Could that $40M have been spent better and bought more than three wins? Maybe yes, maybe no. How much did Rhys Hoskins (who almost everyone thought was a perfect signing for the Brewers at the time) provide for $34M? How is Kyle Tucker doing for $60M this year, or Bo Bichette for $42M? What we do know is that even with all that money wrapped up in a Brandon Woodruff who mostly wasn't available the Brewers 253 W - 171 L record since 2024 is just a half game behind the Dodgers at 254 W - 171 L over that stretch. They have won the Division by ten games, by five games, and currently lead by seven games over these last three seasons. If the Brewers were still able to have all that team success while paying Woodruff almost $40M it wouldn't surprise me at all if they were interested in rolling the dice again for considerably less money. Can Never Have Enough Pitching.

He wouldn't need to take up a roster spot if he was signed to minor league deal.

2023 Brewers .309 wOBA (22nd) .310 xwOBA (26th) 2024 Brewers .319 wOBA (10th) .314 xwOBA (13th) 2025 Brewers .322 wOBA (10th) .314 xwOBA (16th) 2026 Brewers .324 wOBA (6th) .320 xwOBA (13th) In addition to the year over year improvement this is also the third straight year that the Brewers actual wOBA has outpaced their expected wOBA. Overall since 2024 the +.005 gap between their .321 actual wOBA and .316 expected wOBA has been matched by only the Red Sox (.320 wOBA | .315 xwOBA) and Rockies (.307 wOBA | .301 xwOBA) who are probably getting most of their advantage from notoriously hitter friendly home stadiums versus the Brewers likely getting most of their advantage from their team speed.

There is a small degree of correlation with the performance of every player on the roster during that stretch. Of course Yelich hitting for a 90 wRC+ overall since moving to primary leadoff hasn't been a driving factor. But his +0.32 WPA indicates he hasn't hurt the team overall from a Win Probability Added standpoint given the contextual game factors he faced over the course of his cumulative PAs either. 116 PA of 84 wRC+ with bases empty 57 PA of 128 wRC+ with RISP 71 PA of 77 wRC+ low leverage 27 PA of 133 wRC+ high leverage That's how you get a positive WPA with a below average wRC+.

What I'm saying is that despite Yelich being a below average hitter overall since moving to primary leadoff (90 wRC+), he has at least timed his few positive outcomes well (+0.32 WPA), so it hasn't had nearly as deleterious an effect on the team's fortunes (MLB best .646 W% over last 48 games) as the constant IGT complaining might imply. Could the Brewers have played even better than their MLB best .646 W% (104/105 Win full season pace) over the last 48 games? Could they have played even better than their .626 W% (101/102 Win full season pace) that is 1/2 game behind the Dodgers for the whole season? Sure, I guess, if you believe their True Talent Level is over 100 Wins. I know that coming into the season I didn't expect them to win 100 games so it's hard for me to complain too much about the specific details of how they are proving me wrong to this point and blowing past my expectations (again). I'm mostly just kicking back and enjoying it (again).

Yelich was hurt for a good portion of that sample too though. Before getting hurt he was at 56 PA of 122 wRC+ (greatly aided by a .417 BABIP) and his +0.86 WPA was second on the team behind Turang over the first 15 games. Small sample all around but during the 15 games that Yelich was healthy to start the year (with no Chourio and Vaughn) the team had a 102 wRC+ and scored 5.33 R/G versus a 93 wRC+ and scoring 4.75 R/G over the 36 games that all three of he, Chourio, and Vaughn were injured to start, then back for a bit before Yelich moved to leadoff.

Yelich moved to primary leadoff guy on May 26th, so coming up on two months now. In that time he has batted leadoff in 38 of the team's 48 games. Since that date Christian is at 198 PA of 231/335/331 (90 wRC+) with a 12.1 BB% and 28.8 K%. His actual .303 wOBA is a perfect match for his .303 xwOBA so StatCast thinks he is getting just what he deserves. The somewhat good news is that he has at least sequenced his few positive outcomes well notching +0.32 Win Probability Added over this recent leadoff stretch with 57 PA of 128 wRC+ with RISP versus 116 PA of 84 wRC+ with the bases empty. The even better news is that even with Christian putting up a below average batting line while serving as the primary leadoff hitter since May 26th (& getting the 3rd most PA on the team since that date) the offense as a whole has hit for a 112 wRC+ (7th) while scoring 5.23 R/G (5th) over that stretch en route to an MLB best 31 W - 17 L record (.646 W%) over those 48 games (though only 24 W - 14 L for a .632 W% in the 38 games Yelich batted lead off). Before Yelich moved to primary leadoff the Brewers were 31 W - 20 L for a .608 W%.

FanGraphs annual Top 50 Trade Value series kicked off today with each of William Contreras and Kyle Harrison landing in the Honorable Mention section. No Brewers landed in the #41-50 range also released today which leaves Jesus Made (HM last year), Brice Turang (HM last year), Jacob Misiorowski (#35 last year), and Jackson Chourio (#24 last year) as the four Brewers who will likely land somewhere in the remaining Top 40 spots of this year's edition.

Will be interesting to see where the money lands if that is indeed what is going on. Would think something like Colt Emerson (8/$95M) or Jackson Chourio (8/$82M) is probably too high. Maybe something in the range of Kristian Campbell (8/$60M) or Cooper Pratt (8/$50.75M)? Have to imagine Made is thinking something around Konnor Griffin (9/$140M) or Kevin McGonigle (8/$150M) if he is interested in extending before debuting in MLB.

My best guess is the sunglasses indicates he just signed an endorsement contract with Ray Ban (based on the style of sunglasses on the emoji, clearly NOT Oakleys). The bulging eyes make me think of Ryan Braun and his prominent sclera, so perhaps he is resurrecting his Affliction offshoot Remetee clothing line with Andrew as the new face?

Frias dropping out of the Top Twenty and not even showing up on two of the ballots? Some priors need updating.

Reports are the Mariana Trench has inquired with the Brewers about acquiring more depth.

Your guess is pretty spot on. Of the nine teams with more relief IP than the Brewers going back to May 26th the only other current playoff teams would be TBR (283 IP | 8th) and CHW (315 IP | 3rd). This has kind of been the Brewers MO the last few years as they've transitioned out of the Burnes / Woodruff / Peralta trio into the new wave of young arms... 2020-23 Starters 2862 IP (5th) | 87 ERA- (2nd) | 90 FIP- (4th) +19.09 WPA (3rd) | 55.4 rWAR (3rd) | 50.1 fWAR (3rd) 2020-23 Relievers 1979 IP (23rd) | 91 ERA- (8th) | 97 FIP- (11th) +22.10 WPA (2nd) | 17.7 rWAR (7th) | 13.3 fWAR (12th) 2024-26 Starters 2101 IP (27th) | 90 ERA- (2nd) | 99 FIP- (14th) +9.07 WPA (8th) | 40.0 rWAR (6th) | 31.2 fWAR (12th) 2024-26 Relievers 1673 IP (3rd) | 82 ERA- (2nd) | 90 FIP- (3rd) +22.35 WPA (2nd) | 22.5 rWAR (1st) | 16.0 fWAR (3rd) Kind of wild to consider how good the bullpen has been these last few years with such a heavy workload and a lower percentage of their innings coming from Hader/Williams than the 2020-23 editions. Like many aspects of the Brewers it seems like regression should have already happened some time ago but they just keep on staving it off and improving as a whole year over year.

Last 58 is now up to Last 73 with the Brewers 49 W - 24 L record over that stretch a full three games ahead of the Phillies at 46 W - 27 L over the same time frame. But mainly wanted to bump to point out how much better the bullpen has been over these last 73 games than they were over the first 26... First 26 (107 IP | 5th) 8 Credited Losses | -1.50 WPA (25th) 100 ERA- (16th) | 87 FIP- (6th) 101 K+ (15th) | 118 BB+ (16th) | 64 HR+ (8th) 109 AVG+ (27th) | 95 LOB+ (19th) Last 73 (279 IP | 10th) 8 Credited Losses | +5.68 WPA (1st) 78 ERA- (5th) | 87 FIP- (3rd) 114 K+ (4th) | 110 BB+ (22nd) | 79 HR+ (7th) 86 AVG+ (2nd) | 105 LOB+ (6th) Some nice kismet going on with matching 8 Credited Losses and an 87 FIP- over both stretches.

Sometimes it’s better to score last than first.

The Brewers are 11 W - 6 L in their last 17 games so their opponent scoring first in 13 of those games hasn't really slowed them down too much. During one of the recent Apple TV games they mentioned the Brewers were the only team in MLB with a winning record when their opponent scores first. I thought that was a pretty telling tidbit as to the quality of team we've been witnessing this season.

Could just be Jett's recent injury (or maybe teams interested in trading for Luke at the deadline want to see what he looks like there) but Adams has started his last four games at 3B in Nashville. Before that he was at 1B (x13) 3B (x10) DH (x8) since returning from injury on 05/26.

It's pretty wild, really. On May 26th the Cubs lost their 10th game in a row dropping them to last place in the NLC with a 29 W - 26 L record, 4.5 games behind the Brewers. Since then their 26 W - 17 L record is tied for 5th/6th in MLB with the Marlins. The Brewers have gone an MLB best 29 W - 17 L over that same stretch to increase their division lead to the current 6.0 games. During that stretch Cubs pitchers have a 106 ERA- (19th) and 125 FIP- (29th) while their batters have posted a 117 wRC+ (2nd) scoring 5.51 R/G (3rd). During that same stretch Brewers pitchers are at a 91 ERA- (7th) and 92 FIP- (4th) while their batters have posted a 112 wRC+ (8th) scoring 5.26 R/G (5th).

Using the BF Top 20 for reference, right now I wouldn't slot either of Ebel the Younger or Strosnider ahead of Ebel the Elder at #15. Pratt and Lara should be graduating soon which will open a couple spots (plus whoever gets dealt twixt now and the deadline), but I'd also guess that most will have Frias (currently #18) and probably should have Knoth (currently outside the Top 20) ranked ahead of this year's top two picks in the next round of voting as well.

During innings one through five the Brewers have scored 261 runs (9th) and allowed 194 runs (2nd) for a +67 differential. During innings six onward the Brewers have scored 238 runs (1st) and allowed 176 runs (9th) for a +62 run differential. Pretty even up overall, guess it just depends on if you prefer run scoring or run prevention. The Cubs are currently fifth in MLB with a +53 run differential for all of their innings.