sveumrules

The only pitcher to throw a scoreless frame in the Mudcats 12 to 6 loss was third baseman Miguel Briceno, who worked around a walk and strikeout to earn the zero while also registering his first ever strikeout from the mound in 7.1 career innings. Also went 3 for 4 at the plate with a stolen bag, not too shabby. Not much fun in the TRats box as they trail 5 to 1 top seven with their lone tally coming on Jadher Areinamo's 10th home run of the season.

Looks like Pablo Guerrero (DOB: 7/31/2006) is the youngest position player in the Carolina League to this point. Braylon (DOB: 8/14/2006) will have him beat by a couple weeks when he makes his debut.

Final math for the Mudcats first ends up seven walks + three wild pitches + two singles + two errors + one stolen base + one balk + two strikeouts + one flyout =‘seven Carolina runs.

My preseason math was along the lines of... Offense (+6 Wins): 92 wRC+ | -62.2 batting runs in 2023 up to average 100 wRC+ | 0.00 batting runs. Rotation (-6 Wins) 15.8 rWAR in 2023 down to around 2018 (11.2 rWAR) or 2019 (9.9 rWAR) levels. Bullpen (-6 Wins): +11.73 WPA in 2023 down to around 2021 (+5.90 WPA), 2018 (+5.65 WPA) or 2019 (+5.22 WPA) levels. That essentially would have brought them in around 86 Wins which would make it their seventh straight full season winning at least that many games, one of only four teams over .500 every year of that stretch. What we've gotten so far instead... Offense: 107 wRC+ | 44.4 batting runs & counting. Rotation: 11.0 rWAR with 4.5 of that coming in the 2nd half, the third highest post-ASB total in MLB. Bullpen: +11.92 WPA, just no words. I've never been more happy to be so wrong.

Pat Hoberg called a “perfect game” in the 2022 WS.

He had a 126 wRC+ over his first 156 PAs before getting injured. From July 4th through August 10th he put up a 144 wRC+ over 104 PAs.

If Adames was willing to sign for 4/100 it would have happened already. He’s gonna be shooting for double that while hoping to settle for a something north of Dansby money, 7/177.

From April 26th to May 15th the White Sox went 11 W - 8 L. They had a couple mediocre weeks from June 7th to 18th at 5 W - 6 L. Even put together another winning stretch at 5 W - 3 L from June 27 to July 5th. They are 10 W - 90 L in their other 100 games.

Yeah, was just looking at the last time a non-Brewers team had a share of first in the NLC and it was the Cubs at 22 W - 16 L on May 8th. Then they went 17 W - 32 L through July 3rd while the Brewers went 31 W - 20 L over that same stretch. That thirteen game swing is the division at the moment. Since then the Cubs are 32 W - 18 L, making up a couple two tree games on the Mets at 31 W - 22 L and half a bakers dozen on the Braves at 27 W - 26 L for the third WC. Also looks like the Cubs lost the head to head with both NLE teams so they’ll have to clear them outright.

Pretty remarkable that the Brewers have gone 20 W - 9 L in the 29 games with Turang and his 53 wRC+ in the leadoff spot post-ASB. I’d probably be trying a lineup something like this (with post-ASB numbers)… Perkins (75 PA | 121 wRC+) Chourio (168 PA | 162 wRC+) Contreras (175 PA | 150 wRC+) Adames (170 PA | 154 wRC+) Mitchell (120 PA | 128 wRC+) Sanchez (66 PA | 134 wRC+) Hoskins (144 PA | 82 wRC+) Ortiz (149 PA | 71 wRC+) Turang (149 PA | 53 wRC+) I’d be playing Monasterio (39 PA | 107 wRC+) a little more frequently to get Ortiz and Turang some extra rest. Give Bauers (79 PA | 76 wRC+) every third game or so at 1B in favorable match ups vs RHP. Get Hicklen in the OF vs LHP to see what he’s got and Frelick (128 PA | 74 wRC+) can sub in every fourth game or so vs RHP for Mitchell and Perkins. Start Haase (29 PA | 118 wRC+) once a week behind the plate so Gary can DH more.

Welcome to the forum & good luck on your recovery.

The Cubs are 32 W - 18 L since July 4th. That’s the 2nd best record in MLB over an almost two month stretch.

Biloxi up 5 to 0 heading to bottom of the sixth with a two RBI Connor Scott double followed by a two run Ernesto Martinez Jr. bomb accounting for most of the scoring. Nate Peterson has six scoreless frames with 5 H | 1 BB | 6 K.

Small samples like Mitchell in CF and Frelick in LF are prone to more outlier results with DRS, but even zooming out to their whole careers, the Brewers have a pretty sick collection of defensive outfielders... Perkins (1175 inn.) +20 DRS | +16 FRV Frelick (1404 inn.) +16 DRS | +11 FRV Chourio (989 inn.) +12 DRS | +6 FRV Mitchell (660 inn.) +11 DRS | +4 FRV Going back to 2022 when Mitchell debuted there are 196 outfielders with at least 600 innings played. Only 29 of them have +11 DRS or more and four of those are Brewers, a fifth (Tyrone Taylor at +17) put up most of his numbers in Milwaukee too. Also aways fun to compare the results of DRS which BRef uses for their WAR calculations and FRV, which is the StatCast defensive metric used by FanGraphs for their WAR. Most of the Brewers totals are pretty close, but there are a couple of interesting divergences at the top... Adames SS (1179 inn.) -12 DRS | +1 FRV Turang 2B (1054 inn.) +22 DRS | +4 FRV Contreras C (894 inn.) +1 DRS | -3 FRV Ortiz 3B (871 inn.) +6 DRS | +6 FRV Perkins CF (775 inn.) +9 DRS | +9 FRV Frelick RF (634 inn.) +12 DRS | +7 FRV Hoskins 1B (618 inn.) -3 DRS | -4 FRV Chourio LF (536 inn.) +4 DRS | -1 FRV Bauers 1B (467 inn.) -2 DRS | -1 FRV Chourio RF (453 inn.) +8 DRS | +7 FRV Yelich LF (402 inn.) -4 DRS | -2 FRV Mitchell CF (245 inn.) +6 DRS | +2 FRV Sanchez C (207 inn.) -1 DRS | -2 FRV Frelick CF (168 inn.) +3 DRS | +1 FRV Frelick LF (155 inn.) -5 DRS | -3 FRV With the emphasis the Brewers put on defense all around the diamond I would guess their internal models spit out results closer to DRS (which values defense around +/- half a run a game on a team level at the far ends of the spectrum) than they are to FRV (which is closer to +/- a quarter run a game at the far ends of the spectrum).

It was really only two years (2018 at +5 and 2019 at +8) that the Brewers went crazy on their pythag, otherwise it was 2016 (-1), 2017 (+1), 2021 (+2), 2022 (+1) and 2023 (+2). But yeah, six straight years on the right side of the ledger (even if only by a win or two) is still a pretty impressive run either way. This year's model has definitely gotten the lion's share of their positive run differential from blowout games. BRef defines a blowout as a game with a margin of five or more runs. The Brewers are 25 W - 7 L in such games with a +128 run differential. That means for the other 103 games the Brewers have a +5 run differential and are 54 W - 49 L. For comparison here are the other eleven current playoff teams with their blowout records and run differentials in those games... KCR (31 W - 14 L) +112 NYY (32 W - 17 L) +98 PHI (31 W - 17 L) +79 MIN (26 W - 15 L) +72 ARI (24 W - 21 L) +59 BAL (22 W - 15 L) +51 HOU (25 W - 19 L) +48 CLE (21 W - 15 L) +46 LAD (17 W - 14 L) +45 ATL (22 W - 14 L ) +42 SDP (20 W - 18 L ) +37 Pretty nuts that the Brewers have seven fewer blowout losses and almost 100 points of W% (.781 to .689) over the next best blowout team. Obviously not a perfect one to one comparison, but the minimal number of blowout losses and not having a losing streak longer than three games as of yet kind of gives me 2010 Packer vibes where they never trailed by more than a touchdown the whole season or whatever it was.

Wisco getting steamrolled 7 to 0 top eight. Hoby Milner worked around a two out Jac Caglianone double to put up a zero in his rehab frame.

KC Hunt finished up at 6.1 scoreless walkless innings with 5 H | 6 K. Shuckers picked up three runs bottom six on back to back Eric Brown Jr and Connor Scott doubles followed by an Ernesto Martinez bomb, but the Biscuits put up a four spot top of eight to take the lead. Warren - Kahle - Martin due up bottom nine to hopefully spark the comeback.

Carolina tallied eleven hits all singles with the aforementioned Miguel Briceno, Jose Acosta and Reidy Mercado collecting a pair each (Acosta & Mercado added a BB/SB each too) while Blayberg Diaz went for the hat trick. Filippo Di Turi also chipped in a walk and two sac flies.

A 9 to 5 lead was a big enough margin for the Mudcats to bring in Miguel Briceno to pitch the bottom of the ninth and he went ground out, HBP, double play to seal the deal in his fourth mound appearance of the season.

Pretty appropriate that what are ostensibly our 6th starter and 6th reliever would combine for the team’s 12th shutout of the year.

Manager won’t make much difference as long as Nutting and Castellini are signing the checks.

On July 3rd Turang still had a season line of 292/354/415 (116 wRC+) over 336 PAs. Since then he is at 173 PAs of 179/246/244 (39 wRC+). Pretty crazy the Brewers have still managed to go 26 W - 21 L since July 4th even with their leadoff guy hitting worse than Chris Narveson's 229/270/259 (44 wRC+) career line with the Brewers.

Brewers have played 134 games now. Here is Turang through the first 67 team games compared to last 67 so the samples are a little more even from a games standpoint... F67: 244 PA of 296/361/407 with 23 SB / 1 CS L67: 265 PA of 216/278/311 with 14 SB / 5 CS I'd guess Turang is running less of late due to a combination of being on base less, hitting at the top of the order, being thrown out with more frequency and probably just some good old fashioned fatigue in there.

Joe Ross with his eleven innings of 0.82 ERA | 2.53 FIP as a reliever.

Jackson has way more power than Lorenzo. Entering the game Chourio has a .171 Isolated Slugging as a 20 year old. Cain only reached a .171 Isolated Slugging once in his career and it wasn't until he was a grown man in his age 29 season with 1,369 PAs already under his belt.