Jake McKibbin

Remember the Brewers have signed who they want to by now, it just hasn't been publicised yet

I had a look at malamazians swing earlier, so so smooth But yeah adding even Wech to that if they don't get nunnallee would be okay, but still there's a feeling this draft wasn't quite the coup without him or Levonas

The Brewers didn’t have a flashy deadline by any means, but it may still have shaped their roster construction to finish the year. Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports With many discussions going on behind the scenes, Matt Arnold decided to stick with the players they had offensively, while bolstering their pitching ranks with acquisitions of Frankie Montas, Aaron Civale and Nick Mears in the month of July. Mears is a Stuff+ darling with strong recent results, while the Brewers will be hoping they can refine Montas and Civale’s arsenals to find their promise of yesteryear. Combined with some high-level players returning from the IL, the Brewers' roster is stronger than it was prior to July, despite some fresh injuries. However, the continued lack of an ace is concerning for a team with strong playoff ambitions. Some roles are getting further clarified, and may present the Brewers with an opportunity to grow stronger as a unit rather than with individual strength. The Brewers Value A Healthy Garrett Mitchell The Brewers were mostly looking to trade from positions of strength at the deadline, due to 40-man roster restrictions and a desire to keep their prospect pool strong. They needed to free up spaces for any new acquisitions, and as such, the strength in depth of both their outfielders and relievers seemed to be a good place to free up that space. One name specifically quoted by Robert Murray was Garrett Mitchell, who has had a checkered injury history with the Brewers and continues to outperform expected metrics and put up strong results. So far this season, Mitchell has a .790 OPS, and has demonstrated an improved chase rate (11%) that has led to a 12.3% walk rate. He's been lofting the ball more regularly against right-handers. After a short adjustment period, since Jul. 14, Mitchell has hit 36.8% of his batted balls in the launch-angle sweet spot, tagged 47.4% of his batted balls at 95 miles per hour or better, and averaged 90 mph in exit velocity against righties, when you exclude bunt attempts. There were major concerns around his profile coming into the season, but he’s beginning to alleviate some of these, with that chase rate being a real boost. He has as much upside as almost anyone in the Brewers organization if it all clicks, and his balance of bat, speed and defense has been very valuable at the bottom of the lineup. The question as always is around the sustainability of his production, given the difficulty he has in staying healthy. Mitchell still has more swing-and-miss in the strike zone than you would prefer, much like Jake Bauers. However, his performances of late may have convinced the Brewers that they shouldn’t sell low on him just yet. There’s a big decision regarding the outfield logjam to be sorted in the offseason, even after Joey Wiemer was traded, but for now (and with Yelich's back injury uncertainty), they decided to stand pat and keep Mitchell for the strong side of the platoon, at least. They should probably avoid putting him in against lefties, where he’s struggled more often to elevate the ball, but as a strong-side platoon member, he’s proving his worth. Put together that speed, the defense and (so far) above-average performance at the plate, and the Brewers decided that was enough to keep him for the final two months. He may still be tradable come the Winter Meetings, but if he can stay healthy and retain this level of production, that value will increase astronomically from where it is now. Jake Bauers Is Their Left-Handed Power Bat, Not Tyler Black I know many people thought Tyler Black would be up in the majors by now--likely at first base, in place of Jake Bauers. However, while Black hasn’t set the world alight in Triple A this year, Bauers has actually been quite solid. A lot of this may come down to the Brewers' offensive needs. They don't hit the ball over the fence quite as often as they'd like. Bauers has shown some real pop in his bat. He's good both at generating exit velocity and at lifting the ball in the process, while rounding out his profile with the improved chase rate that’s led to his .367 OBP since Jun. 1. It’s also important to note that Bauers and Black have a similar floor in some ways, given they both tend to post strong on-base percentages, but their differences come in what happens outside of that. Black has significantly better contact rates, but hasn’t got close to Bauers's power, while Bauers doesn’t possess Black’s ability to make contact with the ball. Some may point to Black’s 10 home runs this year as evidence of his power, coming predominantly from pulling balls down the line, but the step up from Triple-A to the majors is bigger than it’s ever been. Expecting anything like that home run production from Black in MLB by the end of September would be folly. He's already struggling to hit the ball hard with regularity. That may come through more at some point, but for now, he's not ready to be an impact player on the major league roster. For now the Brewers are sticking with Bauers as almost their sole slugging lefty with Yelich out. The State Of The Back End Starters, And A Six-Man Rotation With the acquisition of Frankie Montas and the return of DL Hall and Joe Ross from injury, the Brewers have a number of arms available to pick up the end of their rotation. The question of whether they should go to a six-man rotation or even the volume of long relief options in their bullpen becomes more pressing now. Montas is the only one of the group who hasn’t been a reliever in recent times, and it seems fairly safe to say the Brewers see him as a backend starter. The front office and Pat Murphy have also been adamant all year about liking Joe Ross as a starter. However, there are flaws in his limited arsenal that get exposed the second and third times through the order. Then there’s Hall, who found extreme success out of the bullpen in 2023 for the Orioles, able to add a couple of ticks on the fastball that made him elite but that also makes him so tantalizing as a starter. First up is Joe Ross, and our own Jack Stern summed it up pretty well: Ross has a very good sinker/slider combo that can potentially add further velocity with a move to the pen. Both pitches can get outs in either high-leverage or longer relief roles, but there's a real possibility he can be excellent at it. The first time through the order, he’s allowed an OPS of just .600, whereas when he gets to the second time through that number jumps to an .813 OPS. He just doesn’t have the variety in his arsenal to be a legitimate starter in the majors, but that’s not to say he can’t be incredibly useful if you give him up to nine hitters. You’ll see the absurd swing-and-miss on his slider (49% whiff rate first time through) and the low damage on his sinker (.491 OPS first time through) play up, and he could be a really useful addition for a couple of innings, given the shorter starts by most of the Brewers rotation. For me, it would be a mistake to keep Ross on as a sixth member of the rotation. You’re losing out on both productivity and value, as well as shortening an already taxed bullpen. Assuming Montas is penciled in as the fitth starter, let’s turn our attention to Hall, who had perhaps his most promising start of the year. The heater is going to be the reason he succeeds or struggles in the big leagues, and while I’m not fully convinced just yet by the quality of contact it's giving up, it can’t be argued that (shape-wise) it’s a lot better. Averaging another inch of induced vertical break (14”) alongside an effective velocity of 95.1 mph in July, that’s almost two miles per hour higher than his mark in May, it's bringing about better results: When Hall is getting that level of swing-and-miss on his heater, it may be time to get excited for his return. The question is: Do the Brewers want him starting? Having had some extraordinarily strange barriers popping up while attempting to ramp up his pitch count, Hall's last five outings have had him throwing 62, 61, 57, 49, and 57 pitches, which doesn’t necessarily make you think he’ll be a starting pitching option in the next two weeks or so. The velocity is holding well into his starts and the results are promising, but he may also profile better in that long relief role. With injuries in the bullpen of late and the struggles to even retain a healthy rotation at this point, the Brewers may want Hall to continue building up his pitch count in Nashville while being ready to step in at a moment’s notice. He looks like he’s a more effective starter than Ross. If they did go to a six-man rotation, it should be Hall who gets the last place, but there’s a real possibility the Brewers either maintain the two long relievers they currently have and keep Hall in the minors or bring him up as that third option for middle innings. You certainly can’t deny that the Brewers, who place 20th in innings from their starters, need this sort of bulk reliever more than most playoff teams. Expanding to six starters with Hall could, of course, increase the quality of outings you're getting specifically from Freddy Peralta, thanks to more rest. Then, with the likes of Bryan Hudson and Trevor Megill returning in August, they could have one of the best and most varied bullpens in baseball, with those two alongside Nick Mears, Hoby Milner and Joel Payamps (who's also recently found some form). The Brewers roster is set for the next few months. There's no external aid incoming. With the first challenge being to lock down their division lead and then look beyond, I firmly believe this is a roster with enough niche pieces that they can excel--if deployed correctly in the coming months. What do you think of the decisions regarding Mitchell, Bauers and the back end of the rotation? Do you disagree with what the Brewers are doing? let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

Apparently so though nothing confirmed yet Smith is certainly interesting as the results/stuff don't jump off the page but that second year post TJ seems to be what people are looking at, and that apparently a lot of scouts think they can get significantly more out of his arm/frame?

6'5, 220?

Unsure of the accounts validity and may be old information, but still the most likely outcome here

Seems like they've admitted defeat on some HS picks past round 10, but that might hint that Levonas is closer? Perhaps loking too into it, but if the likes of Nunnallee and others are the ones out it suggests they have that money tied up elsewhere.. either way seems like we're likely to know more today!

Yeah, especially Caedmon Parker. I'd imagine those college picks will sign but I guess nothing's guaranteed. I'd also imagine the Brewers have ideas of numbers for those day 3 guys all sorted out and ready to go should Levonas not sign, so they'll not just be twiddling their thumbs but yeah. Spencer has left me a lil down on him signing at this point so trying to stay excited about Broughton instead

He's got a mutual option for $20m with a $2m buyout for 2025 but it's hard to see the Brewers picking that up so yes I'd treat this as a rental. Pitch mix tweaks can be done relatively quickly and they'll get some benefit from it in the immediate future especially as it usually takes time to see the adjustments and adjust back for hitters. That's me putting a positive spin on things, but for more details on what exactly he can do Matt has written an excellent piece here

I've updated the initial page as we go along if that helps, so just go to the first post in this thread I'd imagine it'll all depend on Levonas and his offer. There'll probably be a deadline in place and after that the Brewers will direct that cash towards the Day 3 picks

Giving up on Jakob Junis in his hybrid role for Frankie Montas and his 5.01 ERA this season is an out-of-left-field move from the Brewers, but does it really upgrade their playoff push? Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports Trading for two players with an ERA over 5.00 doesn’t usually fit into the trade deadline plans for a playoff competitor, and unlike Nick Mears, there has been no obvious misfortune in Frankie Montas conceding these runs, with peripheral metrics backing them up. Montas has some assets that were highlighted in his start to the season, with the ability to generate a lot of ground balls on that split finger and get quick outs, carrying him deep into games, but the other pitches in his arsenal have been unsuccessful to say the least. Montas has struggled with both generating strikeouts and limiting walks on the year. The Brewers had a surplus of talent in one area and a dearth in another. The surplus was in their long relief corps, with DL Hall stretched out at Nashville and Joe Ross positioned to complement Bryse Wilson, depending on whether they go with a five- or six-man rotation down the stretch. Hall hasn’t thrown over 62 pitches since April, and the Brewers may now be seeing him as the ideal man to replace Jakob Junis in the pen, with his fastball having regained some of its former vigor. There are only so many occasions where that longer relief is needed, and as such, Junis (in his current role) may have been redundant, especially with the Brewers' reluctance to stretch him out further with concerns over his “scratchy shoulder”. Montas’s splitter is a truly elite pitch, and the Brewers may see a way of restructuring his sequencing and locations to get more out of it and hide the weakness in his three-fastball mix, especially his cutter. He’s getting a little less horizontal cut than in his prime years but the real issue is command: Results-wise, Montas has two effective pitches in the slider and splitter, and by tweaking the usage of the four-seamer and sinker he may be able to get them by well enough to take advantage of those off speed offerings Whether Montas is exactly what the Brewers needed is arguable. I’m not entirely sure he presents an upgrade on Ross, should they stick with a five-man rotation. Joey Wiemer has had a hot July without the high exit velocities to assure anyone that it can be consistent. Junis was valuable, but may be replaced by Hall on his return as a longer reliever. As such, they haven’t traded a whole lot to get Montas. He can provide length and quick outs that should play up with the Brewers' premium “run-prevention unit,” as they like to call it, and Montas has the experience to slot quickly into the Brewers rotation. All that being noted, the Brewers' biggest need at the deadline was a pitcher they trusted to get outs in a playoff game against the best hitters in the league. Yes, that comes with a hefty cost, but the Brewers offense--with a firing Jackson Chourio, a (potentially) rejuvenated Christian Yelich and the likes of Willy Adames, William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins finding form at the right time--is capable of making a deep run. Montas doesn't appear to be that frontline pitcher. His sheer stuff and velocity have ticked down since his shoulder surgery last season, and even if it does work out, they'll have another pitcher hovering around an earned run average of 4.00, rather than one who's capable of going a month with a sub-3.00 and who can strike out elite opponents. They’re still missing that caliber of pitcher, and with the offense not all that consistent from one day to another, this doesn't instill a lot of confidence in the Brewers making a deep playoff run--barring a further addition. View full article

I did talk about the breaking stuff as well not just on the road Vs at home but overall and in particular the curve. I think the fastball has some issues that I hope don't flare up but it is worth keeping an eye on. I think it's great but we also know Matt Bush had some nice FB metrics but got hammered a bit. I'd also say over the last couple of months to the eye test Megill hasn't looked as solid and there have been a lot of deep fly balls that put a lump in your throat. I think Mears will be good and I do think there's a tweak in the breaking pitches he uses but does being elevated at 95+ regularly enough give something to watch, I think so. Anyway happy to leave it there!

I can see both sides here, it's not likely to do damage to all fields but also Isaac Paredes is making a living out of pulling balls down the line for HR's at that launch angle. So it's still absolutely relevant for me and a useful statistic

There's clearly some difference in how they're measured but it's not a wonky definition at all with a ton of variables. I think savant maybe tapers barrels more within a high exit velo, in the a 10 degree LA can be a barrel if you hit it 120 mph whereas Trumedia includes all hard hit balls with the sweet spot launch angle but either way I'm happy enough saying that the barrel rate presented by Trumedia gives me some cause for concern and it's a justifiable opinion. Being hit 95+ with optimal launch angles is never ideal. I can't say for sure that's the difference as I'm currently on my phone and out in town, but Trumedia is a very good source of statistical information used by a lot of baseball writers so I'm happy to back it's relevance here

Thanks Matt, just went to screenshot it myself! Didn't realize the differential was quite so vast and may use other indicators to back it up in future, but the sweet spot rates per batted ball being 45.2% as well is a fairly strong indicator it hasn't entirely worked out for him in terms of movement and my point essentially is that I'm hoping he doesn't turn out like a Nate Pearson/Matt Bush type with the stuff on paper that doesn't quite translate to in game success

I wondered that too, it came out yesterday at $25k however so yeah big underslot there

Nick Mears may just be the option the Brewers need, with an electric fastball and some underrated breaking stuff. Some stats may give pause, but here’s why you should be excited about the Brewers' latest pickup. Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports On Saturday evening, the Brewers traded for relief pitcher Nick Mears from the Colorado Rockies, giving up Yujanyer Herrera and Bradley Blalock. Mears has a 5.56 ERA this season, which doesn’t jump off the page, but it does initially appear that he’s been burned to some extent by his defense, given his 2.70 FIP and impressive 28.1% strikeout rate. The Brewers pen struggled earlier in the year with getting that swing-and-miss element, but with Devin Williams's return, Joel Payamps finding some form and then Trevor Megill, the Brewers may have four elite strikeout merchants that they can deploy in situations such as the one Elvis Peguero struggled with on Saturday night to escape a jam. Some may be slightly perturbed by Mears being more effective in Colorado than he has been on the road, given Denver's friendliness to hitters. However, the biggest issue with playing at elevation isn’t always the elevation itself, so much as having to adjust with such frequency to how your pitches function at different elevations. He’s struggled more with walks while on the road, which lends some credence to this, but he's still kept up the gaudy strikeout numbers and he's given up just two home runs all year. He won't be back at Coors Field this season, so being able to have that consistency with how the pitches move should be beneficial to his command. What Makes Him Different? I’ll have to credit Matthew Trueblood for the observation that Mears's stuff has a very different profile from a lot of the Brewers relievers, who favor horizontal movement with their sweepers and two-seamers from lowish arm slots. With a fastball like his, Mears can still generate significant swing-and-miss, with the added advantage of that more downward action on his breaking pitches being conducive to ground balls and getting underneath the bat. Given the slider and curveball are slightly different speeds but have similar movement profiles, he may consider ditching one of them, and I’d advocate that it be the curveball, due to how much better he commands the slider (slider on the left, curveball on the right): The slider has better quality-of-contact metrics, in large part because of a tendency to hang the curveball more than he would like. When you narrow down more in terms of sequencing, when used after the four-seamer, the slider has been massively more effective. He hasn’t given up a single hard-hit ball this season on the slider, compared with a 17.6% barrel rate for the curveball. He’s thrown the curve a lot more in these situations, but it is something you may look to change. The Fastball Is Electric Mears real strength is his fastball, which has the type of movement you dream of in a late-inning reliever, and it really plays up when away from Coors Field. On the road this year, it averages 19” of induced vertical break (an elite number that creates an appearance of the pitch rising while it defies gravity) from a highish release slot. The real damage he does comes from his velocity and above-average extension, releasing the ball close to home plate in a way that makes it seem as though he’s throwing almost 98 mph on average. When located in the upper third of the zone (and away from Coors Field), Mears induces a whiff rate of 31.3% on the heater, again an elite number, and his slider can really play well off of that. It’s a blink-and-you-’ll-miss-it offering that’s incredibly effective, not just because of the swing and miss but based on how well it avoids barrels. A Word of Caution There are two factors that may hinder Mears with the Brewers. His four-seam fastball has been barreled up at almost double the rate away from Coors Field, despite the improved metrics on the pitch. This is where the consistency in the air/lack of elevation can hopefully make a big turnaround for him in terms of results, but a 24.2% barrel rate just will not play at this level. Then there are the walks. A late-inning reliever will give up runs every now and then, but they cannot afford to be walking people with regularity. Mears has walked hitters more than you would like, but there is a hope that, again, he can be more effective with a more consistent playing field. He overall has avoided barrels well enough to project he can be effective with an above-average walk rate, but it still needs to improve from where it is now, at a 10.3% walk rate. So How Shrewd Is This Pickup? Nick Mears has the kind of arm talent that’s reminiscent of Megill, with an elite fastball and quality breaking pitches that the Crew's pitching lab can get more out of than even his peripherals are suggesting. Yujanyer Herrera was a talented arm to give up, but the Brewers have a lot of such arms in the lower levels of the minors; they can afford to trade from a position of organizational depth. Given Mears has such a different look compared to everyone else (save Megill), and the best bullpens should have a variety of pitch shapes and angles, it may be a big boost if they use him well. They’ll need more from Mears than just looking pretty on paper, but the Brewers front office are excited about this pickup and the boost he can give them through 2027. View full article

That includes the overage

DeBerry has signed but the value hasn't been mentioned anywhere

I wonderif say DeBerry signed for 400k, would the Brewers choose to go all in with 3.4m for Levonas (If that's even enough) or would they prefer spreading it round multiple picks? It's a lot to gamble on for one HS pitcher but such a talented arm