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ClosetBrewerFan

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  1. Interesting article. Thanks. Just out of curiosity, how many pitchers were promoted recently that did not hit the 4Gs, >2.5 K/BB ratio? For example, Ismael Yanez was promoted last year with 7Gs and a 1.37 K/BB ratio in 2023 (and a 1.5 WHIP). His stats really did not justify a promotion. Any thoughts on why he would be promoted? He pitched poorly in Arz last year so maybe the stats defend why they should not have.
  2. That's not accurate. The $68M of the $70M is in "then year" dollars (2034). If he were to get no deferred money, he would be getting something like $46M this year. Still, a hefty sum. But that's why $46M is applied to the CBT. It does mean the Dodgers can sign more players to expensive contracts this year, but the CBT tax will not be avoided, The actual payroll is much lower but the end of year tax will be quite a hit (projected at $45M so far). They can afford it though with their market. Any team can do this, even the Brewers. Except in 2034, the Brewers would be putting out an A's type of a lineup for 10 years and risk going bankrupt. The Dodgers will likely be fine.
  3. The Dodgers total contract deferrals from the last few years now totals $976M. That's a lot of commitment going forward. However, they have it spread out pretty well from 2028 - 2044. With 2034-2044 being the worst driven by Ohtani's $68M annual deferrals (presently sitting at the high $80M's total per year). We don't know the details yet of Snell's $60M in deferrals so don't know when they will be paid out, though it will likely be over at least 10 years at $5M -$6M per (if history is any indication). I'd like to say that this will hurt the Dodgers in the future but they seem like they can just print money. Will $90M to $95M in deferrals during the 2034-2044 really hurt them?
  4. And most of the 2024 P draftees are not listed on the Carolina roster yet. There is definitely a logjam of pitching. By my count, they have nearly 40 pitchers vying for A-/Arz spots and that's only assuming 2-3 promotions from DSL. Jaquez and Torres seem likely and I think Hoff gets promoted (how long can a German survive in the tropics?). That's leaving a bunch of decent pitchers to repeat DSL. It will be no surprise, if they make any trades this winter, they will be trading low level pitching. The pitching heavy last two drafts have given them a ton of depth at the low levels. Injuries always happen so you can never have too much.
  5. I'd say these A+ pitchers belong in AA next year: Aquino, Bryant, Cornielle, Cruz, Figueroa, Fitzpatrick, and Rund plus six 40 man roster guys (and Deivi, Pannone, Duplantier). That makes 40 in AA/AAA.
  6. He is talking about pitchers who are projected for AA/AAA, including 40 man roster guys who wont make the Brewers staff and A+ pitchers who deserve a promotion. The current Sounds and Shuckers roster pages online do not include any of these yet. I also am projecting 40 pitchers for those AA/AAA spots so I believe Jay87shot is accurate. That being said, this is not unusual for the Brewers. They usually oversign for the top two affiliates to account for injuries and poor performances in spring. There will also be a few releases and maybe a trade or two. Having too many good pitchers is not a bad thing.
  7. The bar is pretty low for our backup catcher, so Haase is fine. I'm hoping Quero destroys AAA and forces his way to the majors by mid year.
  8. Just because he got a 40 man roster spot with Atlanta doesn't mean he had any trade value. I'm sure they tried. I doubt there was anyone interested in trading for him. Picking him up for free as a free agent was likely the best route for him.
  9. He's more mediocre at third than brutal, but that may still make him an unlikely get for the Brewers. On the plus side, he absolutely destroys LH pitchers. I think he would be a good fit for our team, though wish he had more power.
  10. Milner is the only obvious non-tender. His salary is not too bad for his production but they have plenty of LH RP depth, he's out of options, and they need more flexibility in the bullpen. I'm hoping they keep the rest, including Civale. I'm not as confidence in their depth than the Brewers seem to be.
  11. Jay, One correction: Satchel Norman was released. I'd also say having Made, Pena, Ortuno, and Anderson all skipping the complex seems unlikely. Agree on Made and Pena though. I think Bitonti will start in A+ but that's surely debatable. Otherwise, I think your projections are pretty reasonable. The pitchers are just a crapshoot, so your guesses are as good as anyone's. Nice job.
  12. I'm surprised there was not more outrage at the Deivi Garcia. Usually we get the sarcastic World series here we come stuff. Or complaining that the Brewers are not doing enough yet.
  13. I'm surprised the Brewers did not make any trades today to take advantage of their open 40 man spots. However, there are a few players who were DFA'd by their teams today that could be interesting for the Brewers. Eddys Leonard, a 23 year old 3b/U had a 781 OPS with Detroit's AAA last year. 26 year old Eric Wagaman (3b/OF) had a 808 OPS over AA/AAA plus a cup of coffee with the Angels last year. 23 year old George Valera was once a top 50 prospect but will miss half of next year due to injury and is out of options. Still he has plenty of tools and hit 17 HR in 90 games for Cleveland's AAA club. and has a career 810 OPS in the minors.
  14. Agreed on Crow. Mid season I figured he was likely to be protected but his AFL performance should scare teams off. Henderson is a lock and then I would go Shane Smith and Chad Patrick as possible. I think EMJ is unlikely. If they were going to protect him, they could have just added him at the end of the season rather than give him a minor league contract. I think Russell Smith has an outside chance but doubtful.
  15. This is exciting, as far as hot stove league news in November can be. Deivi is just the type of pitcher the Brewers should be signing to no risk minor league contracts. This could be a day we all will remember next year or one we will completely forget. I hope its the prior.
  16. I'm also confused. We know what Civale's value is. We traded Barrios (lottery ticket) for him. Maybe with Civale second half, his value is slightly better, but he has 1/2 year less control, so I'd say that's a wash. I would hope Turang and Peralta are worth more than a lottery ticket. I think this is suppose to include likelihood of a trade, but then Turang should not even be in the top 20. Unless there is some huge blockbuster where we get multiple infielders back, Turang is not going anywhere.
  17. I still consider Ashby, Hall, and Gasser as pitching prospects and the best options we have for LHP SP. But if you are really considering minor leaguers only, it would be Mason Molina. I'm not too concerned since we have plenty of RH SP at this point.
  18. Great writeup and I like the justifications. Well thought out. I'd argue another reason for bringing 10-12 players stateside. They need to fill out the Arizona roster. There are only a handful of players who will repeat next year and only one player (Fielder) from the July draft signings who will likely be in Arizona. They just need the bodies. Its awesome that we have so many that are deserving of the callup.
  19. The upside is to be one of the better SP in baseball. I think that alone makes him our #1 prospect.
  20. If your eating money, what's the point of trading him. Your trying to dump salary. Or if you include him with Devin then your getting less prospects back. Its really the same thing. We need a 1b or a DH. Hoskins fills that role well. If he plays poorly next year, I'll eat crow. I get there is a risk he could be worse, but you could say that about anyone. I just feel he has a better chance to be better next year.
  21. Sure. How many prospects do you want to give up to dump his salary? Seriously, it would make no sense. Hoskins has more potential to be good than anyone we could sign or promote. May as well keep him and the prospects it would take to get rid of him.
  22. 1b/3b/DH role is wide open for Black now. He's got a good chance at one of those positions next year.
  23. Well, there's no roster crunch now! 40 man roster now at 36. Surprised they did not include Milner in the cuts. Maybe they are working a trade. Hard to believe they have room for Ashby, Koenig, Hudson, and Milner (assuming DL is in the rotation).
  24. This does surprise me. $5.5M seemed like good value for a #5/#6 SP in today's market. He would be good insurance for all the question marks. I wonder if Civale is retained now. Brewers do like their flexibility and Rea could not be optioned. Could be signs of a lot more shakeup.
  25. Agreed. Torres just does not fit the mold the Brewers have created. A one year deal to Moncada just makes the most sense. He's not great defensively but is at least average. And if he gets hurt (very likely), the Brewers have options like Black, Dunn, Frelick, Boeve, etc to fill the position.
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