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7/17/07 D'Backs (Petit) @ Brewers (Vargas): 7:05 PM CDT

































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Here's to hoping Vargas has a solid outing. However, with him and his spectacular ability not to pitch more than 7 innings, I feel a little better now that Villanueva is available. At least I think he is, with 3 days of rest after throwing 60 pitches.
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As appealing as this Vargas vs. Petit matchup is, I'm having a hard time hiding my excitement for the Capuano vs. DD matchup on Wed. from my 1/2 price seats on the field level.


Here's hoping Davis doesn't walk anyone but the Crew still wins 15-0.

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Well depending you'd prefer using Parra today if you need innings and Villy tomorrow since that gives you that in game swith from lefty to righty in case the opposing manager does any platooning.
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Anybody else notice Jenkins OPS has dipped under .800 and he's OBP has dropped under .320? You can't just blame it on seeing a couple of lefties the last week he's been cold for a couple of months getting platoon protection. I suppose he's still got time to go on one of those hot streaks, but our average left field OBP is now getting dangerously close to .300 along with our starting catcher. That's a only a few steps from a Dusty Baker special offense. I'm starting to change my mind on Jenkins being back next year as a result.
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Jenkins is nothing special but he's still hitting righties OK:


.270 / 339 / .495 / .834


Jenkins should almost never be facing lefties. Yost is partly at fault but so is Melvin. The team needs another RH corner outfielder, so Yost can pinch hit him for Jenkins late in the game.


And if a person is changing their mind every couple of months about whether a player's option year should be picked up or not, they probably aren't looking at a large enough sample. Jenkins has over 4,000 major league AB. We should have a pretty good idea what kind of performance to expect form him. My opinion is that Jenkins' option year should not be picked up and that won't change no matter what Jenkins does for the rest of this year.

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Mench 2/5 plate appearances


I take some issue with your statement Rluz Jenkins track record is fairly long, but we've gotten the the stage of the game where his most recent performances is likely to tell us a lot more about the future then what he did 2 years ago. a Typical pattern is to weight the last season twice and the two years before once. At his age you should probably being doing more like 3-1-1. Combine that with a guy who's kind of at the margin to begin with and it's not difficult to change ones mind over the course of a few months.

More importantly I think you over simplify the platoon issue. For a variety of reasons even in a platoon you are still going to have to bat at the disadvantage from time to time. This year about 1 out of every 6 of Jenkins PA has been against lefties. A fulltimer faces close to 1/3 or so. I have a hard time imagining that even a proactive manager can push that number to more than 1/7 or 1/8 which would only amount to 5-10 less plate appearances.

I think where both Mench and Jenkins are costing the team is that they have such extreme splits. Jenkins hits like Kendall against lefties and only can manage a modest .834 OPS against righties? Mench is also hitting like Kendal against righties but is at least putting up a near .900 OPS against lefties.

Essentially the team is forced to cede any ABs these guys have when the team gets outmaneuvered platoon wise, which will happen and tend to be in more high leverage situations. At a rough pass look at it like this. Every AB the team can get an advantage on with Jenkins net.s them about 30 OPS points over a hypothetical .800 OPS baseline. For Mench they gain .100. On the other hand they are giving up about 250 points when either player bat at a disadvantage. That I think is too much ground to make up in the long run and is moreso why I think platooning these guys is not the best solution for next year.

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I think it is a foregone conclusion Jenkins, Mench, Graffy, and Miller are gone next year..


They need to free up money to sign Sheets possibly and tie up Hart, Braun, and Fielder if possible.


The question is who in their system is the 3rd OF. Gwynn, Gross, Nix, Anderson?


Of course they just need someone to keep the seat warm for Gillepsie / LaPorta


Sleeper: Darren Ford makes the club out of spring training next year..

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I would be willing to place a large wager that, given the current state of the bullpen and Vargas' propensity to not pitch more than 6 innings, we would see the debut of Manny Parra tonight. A win here would be nice, guaranteeing a split against a solid opponent, with a chance to make this series/homestand special in the last five games.
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but we've gotten the the stage of the game where his most recent performances is likely to tell us a lot more about the future then what he did 2 years ago. Combine that with a guy who's kind of at the margin to begin with and it's not difficult to change ones mind over the course of a few months.


I agree that what he did as a rookie is irrelevant these days (I was being dramatic http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif ) but take a look at Jenkins' Marcel projection (uses 3 most recent seasons, weighted and regressed:


.275 / .351 / .465 / .815


His 2007 season actually lowers his current projection and since he's only on pace for about another 100 AB, it's not going to have much effect either way. The fact he'll be a year older will probably have a larger effect on his projection.


If Jenkins never started against lefties and was almost always pinch hit for against a lefty reliever, you could get his PAs against lefties way down. Of course, Yost doesn't have the personnel to do that and even if he did, he's proven to be reluctant to do such a thing. It is possible, however and his splits justify it.


That I think is too much ground to make up in the long run and is moreso why I think platooning these guys is not the best solution for next year.


Agreed, although I'd probably say the same thing even if Jenkins finishes 2007 with a .900 OPS.

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I'm not a Vargas fan to begin with, and this one's against his old team. I don't like it


Vargas may pitch poorly tonight, but I just wanted to mention that Vargas has been an excellent #5 starter this year - if it is appropriate to view him in that narrow capacity, which I do.


In his 15 starts, Vargas has very much kept his team in the game, to the point that the Brewers are 12-3 in his 15 starts. His run support has been good, but it has been the same as Ben Sheets run support this year (5.5 vs. 5.4).


Vargas has not seen the 7th this year, so a horse, he isn't. But what he has been to this point, is a more than servicable back of the rotation starter. I appreciate him for that.

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Subtle point I didn't properly make the first time. The problem with the aggressive pinch hitting Russ is that with those extreme splits the other manager can always comeback and get you at an extreme disadvantage the other way by subbing in again latter in the game.
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Having snared a pair of outstanding tickets for tonight's game for well under face, I will be making the drive up from Cubdom to closely observe Mr. Vargas. I expect to be calling for the ML debut of Manny Parra around the 4th inning.


Hopefully, Yost will have Gabe Gross in the lineup tonight who I have a strong hunch is ready to breakout against a pitcher who has allowed 11 HR in 43 2/3 innings.


On the ROY tracker, for this series you might want to include Mark Reynolds, .277/.335/.529, 7 HR, 26 RBI. Yes his numbers don't quite measure up in this group but most years would have him contending. Besides, after his bomb last night, he might be trying to earn his way on the list so why give him more incentive?

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