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3rd in RPI, 4th in SOS, Don't worry.


DrWood

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I just wish we would have scheduled better non-conference opponents....if we're on the bubble at the end of the season, it could cost us a tournament bid. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
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I agree with Dr Wood, the Brewers have played a tough schedule, while they are short-handed. If they make it through April without falling on their faces -I'll take it. If they're actually a few games better than that, that's one heck of a statement to the league.
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This season starts on April 29th when Cameron comes back. Gwynn will be coming back and Gross will be sent down. (actually now traded, Sparky's going nuts right now w/giddiness)

With Cameron in the clubhouse, I know that the young kids are going to thrive.

 

I like our record w/Cameron being out of line-up.

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Outside of the 3 at home vs. the Giants without facing Lincecum, the Brewers have had a tougher road than either the Cards or the Cubs. We've had more road games than either too.

 

It does seem that the Cubs have a slightly easier schedule this year...although over 162, it doesn't matter that much. We've got a trip to Boston and play them more at Wrigley than they are at MP. We just need to slap them around when we play them at the end of the month!!!

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I just wish we would have scheduled better non-conference opponents....if we're on the bubble at the end of the season, it could cost us a tournament bid. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

good stuff. there really is an RPI?

 

they really need to start scheduling some tough road games in april so they are ready for october! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

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If the Cardinals fall off, their winning record against us won't look too good to the committee in late September. The Brewers should hope that the Cardinals finish in a close second to be void of any "bad losses".
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Don't worry guys. Here's the Cubs schedule so far:

 

3 vs mil

3 vs hou

3 at pit

3 at cin

3 vs pit

3 vs phil

2 vs nym

 

5 games vs winning teams. I believe they have only played 2 or 3 road series, while the Brewers have played 4 (nym, chi, cin, stl).

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The Cubs have a tough September schedule too for the stretch run than what the Brewers do.

 

They play only 9 home games:

3 vs. Hou

3 vs. Mil

3 vs. Stl

 

The are on the road for 15 games including the whole last week of the season at NYM and MIL.

3 at Cin

3 at Stl

3 at Hou

4 at NYM

3 at Mil

 

That last week could be murderous for them.....

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I think that a favorable Sept. schedule will get us in to the playoffs.

 

With the quick start last year we became the hunted and the team could not handle it. This year I think we will be lurking in the weeds, playing better and better as the year goes on. Then in Sept. we will catch that team from Chicago and win the division.

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The selection committee will still screw them over when it comes time for...

Wait... that is for hoops. Anytime I see RPI, I automatically go into " got screwed on their seeding" mode.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

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When SOS are determined only from the results of a month of the season, I don't think it tells us much about the actual strength of each team that the Brewers have faced. The right way to measure the stregth of a team is to look at both preseason expectations and the 2008 performance, weighing preseason expectations much more.

 

I wonder where the Brewers would be with that approach? Looking at just preseason expectations, using the average projections from here:

 

http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/comments/the_2008_diamond_mind_projection_blowout_pt_2

 

I get a weighted average expected record of 80.7 - 81.3. Phili (86), Mets (95.2) and Cubs (88.2) are good. Cards (78.3) and Cin (76.9) are mediocrish. Giants (72.9) and Florida (67.8) are bad. Basically average. I'd consider the results of this year a little but not too much (probably less than 10%).

 

The easiest way to do this might be to use BP's Pecotta adjusted standings (subtracting out the record so far) as the a reasonable "best guess" of each team's true talent. Someone do that please. for each team and tell me what the Brewers' SOS is, relative to everyone else http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

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I've never bought the strength of schedule argument for baseball, because I think it's not necessarily who you play, but when you play them. For example, the Astros are a completely different opponent if you don't have to face Oswalt during a 3 game series. Pitching matchups get shuffled due to offdays and injuries so much that to say it's great the Cubs play the Mets for 4 in late September is kind of pointless...so much can happen between now and then healthwise during the course of a season that it's probably not worth looking more than 5 games ahead for upcoming games/series.
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I don't follow the SOS much, and I'm not much of a stathead either.

 

But I did find it interesting when looking at the "Adjusted Standings" on Baseball Prospectus, that compared to the Cubs and Cards, the Brewers had faced better hitting and pitching. But since I don't really understand how they compute AEQR and AEQRA and the like, I don't think about it too much since I am ignorant about it.

 

Besides. Last season taught me again that "it's a long season, and you just have to trust it."

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Thought this comment on BPro was pretty interesting.

 

More generally, the Cardinals thus far have played just nine games against teams at or better than .500, and 28 against teams with losing records. (The division-rival Brewers, in contrast, have played 26 games against teams at or above the .500 mark and only nine against teams below the .500 mark.)

 

Add in all the road games we've had and I'd say better times are a coming.

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But I did find it interesting when looking at the "Adjusted Standings" on Baseball Prospectus, that compared to the Cubs and Cards, the Brewers had faced better hitting and pitching.

 

I am not picking on you, BC Rising, just surprised that people haven't/hadn't noticed this so far this season. I'd much rather get the tougher stretches out of the way early than have them looming in the second half. It's good to see that Sept. schedule for the Cubs... thanks for pointing that out, KB.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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Out of curiosity, how does the Brewers schedule splits in '08 compare with the Cubs in '07 (or the Rockies for that matter, teams that went on an incredible winning clip during the second half of the season).
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After you take out the head-to-head matchups (Brewers vs. 2008 opponents), the weighted average win% of the Brewer's opponents (weighted by how many times the Brewers have played them so far) so far is .548. Being only 38 games into the season, however, that number does not do a good job representing the actual talent level of each team.

 

A better way to estimate a true teams' talent is to look at the current year's record AND the preseason expectations. For instance, Florida is not going to win win 98 games (their current pace), so why should we pretend that they current record represents their true talent? Even though the Mets are only 2 games over .500 right now, we expect them to do better than that going forward because we expected them to do very well going into the season.

 

What I did was take each Brewer opponent's adjusted win% (win% after the Brewer games were removed) and regressed that 80% towards their preseason projected win%. I called that the "true talent win%" The weighted true average win% of the Brewers opponents so far this year is .500 on the dot. perfectly average. The Brewers have played 21 of their 38 games on the road, though, so their schedule so far has been a bit harsher than average.

 

Wow harsh? If we thought the Brewers were a perfectly average team, we'd expect a 18.8-19.2 record from them. Some other expectations ("wins" just means how many wins the Brewers should get with a neutral schedule. Their true talent level):

 

81 wins: 18.8 - 19.2

81 wins: 19.1 - 18.9

86 wins: 20.0 - 18.0

90 wins: 20.9 - 17.1

 

Based off of preseason expectations (offense being able to hit, Gallardo in the rotation, Gagne not being terrible), the Brewers should have about an extra win.

 

I have no idea why I'm supposed to act outraged that the Brewers are 19-19 right now.

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