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Something to watch: Phenomenal record in 1 run games


gumby

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned, but Milwaukee has a tremendous record of 17-6 in 1 run games. This is easily the best 1 run game record in the league, and it is tied for the most 1 run wins in the league.

 

It would seem that we have been a little lucky in having such a strong record in 1 run games and we should expect to regress closer to .500 in these close games.

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Well how many of them were like tonight's where it never should have been a one run game in the first place. It'd be hard to find that out but I'd imagine a good number of them were. There are two of them just in the past two Bush starts.
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Unfortunately, I agree that they've been relatively lucky.

 

Quick question that might have a little bit to do with their luck in 1 run games: Where do the Brewers rank in turning double plays this year? I'm not sure where to find that. They sure seem to have had some good timing with turning their double plays.

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Taking a quick look at ESPN player stats, it looks like Fielder is in a 4-way tie for 8th with 61 DPs. There are obviously DPs that don't involve Fielder, but it was the quickest way that I knew to look into it.

 

Edit: Just realized that I was looking at 1B only. Disregard.

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Here's something interesting I've found that I assume is related to winning 1 run games, given the formula that is listed in small print at the very bottom of the screen.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp

 

It's the column titled X W-L, or expected win loss record based upon runs for and runs against.

 

What is astounding is the Braves Expected Record. Wow.

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I said this back in April when we started off with a bunch of one-run wins that hopefully it can help us out in the playoff race and/or playoffs themselves, having experience and success in close games. Yes, a lot of luck is involved in one-run games but the psychology of knowing that you have won them all many times all year will help you out a bit. Maybe not much, but a bit.

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It would seem that we have been a little lucky in having such a strong record in 1 run games and we should expect to regress closer to .500 in these close games.

 

Helps explain our actual record v. our pythag. I'll take it. Hopefully we can pile up some wins before the team tires out as could happen during the upcoming stretch of consecutive games.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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Unfortunately, I agree that they've been relatively lucky.

 

Quick question that might have a little bit to do with their luck in 1 run games: Where do the Brewers rank in turning double plays this year? I'm not sure where to find that. They sure seem to have had some good timing with turning their double plays.

Right now, the Brewers are tied for 8th in all MLB with turning 78 double plays, an average of exactly one per game. The Rangers are 1st with 96 and the D-backs are last with 54. Check out the team fielding stat page at mlb.com.

 

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Quick question that might have a little bit to do with their luck in 1 run games: Where do the Brewers rank in turning double plays this year? I'm not sure where to find that. They sure seem to have had some good timing with turning their double plays.

I don't know about double plays but the Brewers are ranked 9th in Defense efficiency if that has anything to do with that though I'm not sure but it is an interesting statistic.

 

From baseball prospectus

 

Data Updated Through June 24 2008

# YEAR TEAM LG PA AB H BB SO HBP HR ROE DEF_EFFhttp://www.baseballprospectus.com/images/down.gif
1. 2008 BAL AL 2,936 2,557 656 301 421 34 88 29 0.723
2. 2008 OAK AL 2,848 2,541 606 248 533 27 54 19 0.718
3. 2008 TBA AL 2,860 2,562 625 250 526 16 65 21 0.716
4. 2008 ATL NL 2,980 2,613 644 280 527 24 67 35 0.714
5. 2008 CHA AL 2,852 2,577 633 212 531 25 64 30 0.713
6. 2008 CHN NL 2,986 2,643 650 265 570 33 75 32 0.712
7. 2008 PHI NL 2,965 2,655 681 251 500 23 84 29 0.712
8. 2008 TOR AL 2,952 2,650 647 233 570 30 66 23 0.712
9. 2008 MIL NL 2,977 2,638 680 281 508 16 91 34 0.711
10. 2008 BOS AL 3,058 2,703 662 292 592 25 72 33 0.711
11. 2008 ANA AL 2,920 2,640 679 226 475 17 73 20 0.710
12. 2008 SLN NL 3,003 2,697 704 240 444 24 71 20 0.710
13. 2008 DET AL 2,942 2,568 675 303 409 34 66 26 0.709
14. 2008 HOU NL 2,946 2,637 714 250 483 22 110 27 0.705
15. 2008 ARI NL 2,955 2,624 650 227 585 42 66 35 0.704
16. 2008 NYN NL 2,997 2,616 671 280 535 42 78 36 0.704
17. 2008 SDN NL 3,048 2,727 701 252 543 14 72 19 0.702
18. 2008 FLO NL 2,986 2,603 680 303 496 25 73 40 0.702
19. 2008 COL NL 3,066 2,696 722 287 470 28 76 28 0.700
20. 2008 KCA AL 2,968 2,667 705 247 510 13 78 27 0.698
21. 2008 NYA AL 2,913 2,619 691 233 515 23 70 26 0.695
22. 2008 CLE AL 2,914 2,640 718 218 477 21 82 23 0.694
23. 2008 SFN NL 3,023 2,621 679 316 583 23 72 26 0.691
24. 2008 WAS NL 3,115 2,742 750 289 518 21 87 28 0.690
25. 2008 LAN NL 2,898 2,573 667 252 559 24 61 31 0.690
26. 2008 TEX AL 3,156 2,759 775 322 439 30 75 39 0.688
27. 2008 CIN NL 3,060 2,702 731 265 606 24 101 31 0.684
28. 2008 MIN AL 2,970 2,730 784 188 435 19 86 27 0.684
29. 2008 PIT NL 3,145 2,746 786 316 442 26 81 36 0.683
30. 2008 SEA AL 2,996 2,630 719 288 517 28 67 27 0.68
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A good bulpen is more important in winning one run games than anything a manager can do. I didn't blame Yost for the 16 loses with 3 run leads and I am not going to give him credit for winning a bunch of 1 run games.

Fan is short for fanatic.

I blame Wang.

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Here's something interesting I've found that I assume is related to winning 1 run games, given the formula that is listed in small print at the very bottom of the screen.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp

 

It's the column titled X W-L, or expected win loss record based upon runs for and runs against.

 

What is astounding is the Braves Expected Record. Wow.

If you want astounding look at Arizona last year. 90-72 record; 79-83 pythag record. That's a lot of close wins and blowout losses.

 

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Preferably not, as there's no factual basis for that and it would only serve to instigate trouble.
I could provide factual basis, like going to Solomon Torres as closer, using the "No Doubles" defense after the 7th inning, Walking batters to face guys that are a better matchup such as last night when Gotay was walked to face the backup catcher. If you want facts, I'll give you them.
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'Seemed' is the key word. There's nothing that definitively says that Ned's decisions are solely responsible for winning those one-run games. I could say that Branyan's presence on the team is the difference maker, and it would no less plausible than pointing to random moves by Yost.
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So, back to brewers19's original point, if the only credit Yost can be given for the team's record in 1-run games is some sort of nebulous/indirect/quasi-credit based solely on your opinion of Yost, why bring it up in the first place? I'm pretty sure that that by this point 99% of the board knows what your opinions on Yost are. So there is no need to keep dovetailing them into discussions.
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