Why is Hart regressing? / Merged: Corey Hart (.300) OBP

[endaround]

Or How much money has Hart cost himself this past few months?

 

Why has Hart gotten so much worse than last year and even worse than his first real action in 2006. If you look at the numbers, it seems either he has taken it upon himself or has been told to be more aggressive at the plate.

 

In 2007 his BB% 6.7%, now its 4.3%, it was never great but thats a distinct drop off. The reason I think its because he's trying to be aggressive is that his K% has also fallen off, from 19.6% to 17.5%, which means he isn't getting into many deep counts. And as expected by doing this his GB% has gone up while his FB% has decreased causing him to lose power.

 

Thoughts?

[rluzinski]

I haven't looked at any numbers but his entire approach at the plate seems to be WAY off. It would be interesting to look at these numbers to see if he really has been swining at a lot mroe junk:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...ype=4&season=2008&month=0

 

It sure seems like it.

[sgtcluels]

He's a hack hitter right now. I think the books written and it's "throw him junk he'll swing". He needs to stop being a junkballer, easier said then done.

[bcf5575]

i dont know what is going on with him right now - he looks totally lost at the plate. too bad kapler is hurt, it would be great to have been able to get hart a few days off to get his act together.

[Ennder]

On august 18th he had a line of .290/.325/.505/.830

 

Since that time he has a line of .195/.219/.313/.532 in 32 games.

 

I don't know what happened, might just be a nasty slump. It wasn't a year long thing or anything though. It has lasted a bit over a month.

[bjkrautk]

Hart is...

- swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone;

- seeing fewer pitches per/ AB in 2008 than he did in '07, which was fewer than he was seeing in '06;

- hitting balls on the ground, his GB/FB is 1.01 this year, 0.98 for his career. In 2007, his ratio was 0.83, the only year in which the ratio favors fly balls.

 

It's also important to note that Hart's 07 OBP was bolstered by an inordinate amount of HBP's (13, as compared to 5 this year). I can't shake the feeling that 2007 is the abberation for Hart.

[Fear The Chorizo]

He's going through the same thing Braun did at the start of the season - until he realizes that he's getting himself out by swinging at non-strikes, he doesn't have much of a shot to improve. Hart looks completely lost at the plate and appears to be trying to guess at what pitch is coming in.

 

Hart's flaw is the same flaw of alot of the young Brewer hitters - plate discipline.

[homer]

I blame his elbow.

[nohopspanther]

I blame his elbow.

Nice bjames ref. Or was it Scooter? Eh, I can't even remember anymore.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

I have never seen someone swing at so many first pitches. Why doesn't he ever work the count?

[brwrsfan]

I have never seen someone swing at so many first pitches. Why doesn't he ever work the count?

 

You do realize that we had Jhonny Estrada on the roster last year right? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[FVBrewerFan]

I can't shake the feeling that 2007 is the abberation for Hart.

Was most of 2008 an abberation too? He's no different than Hardy, it's just that Hardy looked this lost at the plate at the beginning of the year instead of the end. Fielder and Braun had stretches like this, just didn't last as long. I think this entire line-up is infatuated with the low breaking ball of the outsie corner. They love it. Can't live without it. When they stay off that pitch, it's amazing how much of a better hitter they are.

[endaround]

No, Hart was not good in the first half either. A .325 OBP when hitting ,290 stinks no matter what and its still a regression from 2007.

[Ennder]

He showed more patience in the minors so my guess is he ends up a .340/.350 OBP type player. Add in a .450/.500 SLG and average defense and he is an adquate player. Not a star but not a bum.

[FVBrewerFan]

His OPS was .831 in the first half, I wouldn't call that "not good." But yes, like many guys in this line-up more walks would do wonders for his production.

[twobrewers]

His swing looked pretty long and slow last night.

[bjkrautk]

Was most of 2008 an abberation too? He's no different than Hardy, it's just that Hardy looked this lost at the plate at the beginning of the year instead of the end. Fielder and Braun had stretches like this, just didn't last as long. I think this entire line-up is infatuated with the low breaking ball of the outsie corner. They love it. Can't live without it. When they stay off that pitch, it's amazing how much of a better hitter they are.

For the record, Hart's OBP dropping ~ 50 points in the second half of the season also isn't an abberation, as he's done that in each of the past 3 seasons. The difference is, Hart's first half OBP has never been as bad as it was in the first half.

 

Is it that tough to admit that Hart may have been seeing / hitting the ball differently in 2007 than he has in 2008? His SLG is near identical to where it was 2 seasons ago, as is his GB/FB ratio, and the difference between his Avg. and OBP is far more similar to 2006 than 2007. Based on all of that, I can't help but think that Hart either saw the ball differently in 2007, or simply had a different approach to hitting, than he has in the surrounding years.

[GAME05]

but how much of it could be from the switch in the batting order? he played an awful lot of leadoff last year, when you're supposed to take pitches, but you're not so much in the 5-hole. for the drop in his BB%, i'd think that's more a result of a purposeful change in plate approach.

[logan82]

but how much of it could be from the switch in the batting order? he played an awful lot of leadoff last year, when you're supposed to take pitches, but you're not so much in the 5-hole. for the drop in his BB%, i'd think that's more a result of a purposeful change in plate approach.

It may be some change in approach, but I doubt where he bats in the order matters much. Players may make a big deal about it and baseball writers and baseball announcers, but batting order really doesn't matter. A player is going to hit how he is going to hit and pitchers are going to pitch to him pretty much the same also no matter where in the order they hit. No matter who is in the order around him.

 

1st .265/312/.530/.842

2nd .283/.358/.522/.880

3rd .233/.258/.400/.658

4th .368/.368/.421/.789

5th .283/.327/.506/.833

6th .288/.325/.425/.750

7th .207/.271/.379/.650

8th .316/.381/.316/.697

9th .368/.429/.605/1.034

[TheCrew07]

We can say it shouldn't matter all we want, but the simple truth is that if the Player himself thinks it matters, then it does.

 

Nothing is more important than what goes on in any particular player's head.

 

The truest line from the classic movie Bull Durham...

 

"If you believe you're playing well because you're getting laid, or because you're not getting laid, or because you wear women's underwear, then you ARE! And you should know that!"

[endaround]

You might think that, but the numbers don't reflect it. Batting 1st:

.284/.341/.547

 

Batting 5th:

.319/.385/.605

 

He was basically the same hitter, just had a higher BA hitting 5th which doesn't say much to his approach.

[silversurferr]

Like him, but: long swing that cannot drive low and away slider or turn on inside fastball. Solution: Walk more, steal more, get more hittable pitches.

[TheCrew07]

Again it doesn't matter what I think, it matters what the players think, and I wasn't speaking specifically to Hart... more Hardy, Braun, and Fielder... If they aren't "comfortable" with their position in the batting and they start slumping, the position in the batter order is part of the problem because they believe that it has an effect. They must overcome their personal bias to be successful, that's it.

 

I have no intention of debating any study that says batting order doesn't matter all things being equal, because I absolutely agree. My point is and will be that if an issue matters to any particular player then it matters, regardless of what anyone has to say about it. That fact has been one of the hardest things for me personally to overcome with my young men... in most cases it's very difficult to change someone's perception and their self image. Batting Hardy in front of the pitcher affects Hardy because he honestly believes he doesn't see good pitches to hit, whether it's true or not, he's believes he's going to fail before he even starts, and he's spoken on numerous occasions about his position in the order to the press.

 

I have no idea what Hart believes as I don't recall him ever discussing it in the past but I would agree that his position in the order doesn't seem to effect him.

[rotoherb]

This all started happening in the middle of last season, it's not something new or a regression this year. Hart hit .200/.261/.467 in July last year so a monthlong slump isn't something that's never happened with him. This slump came after his blistering .336/.412/.618 June which really solidified him as the starting right fielder. Then opposing teams just realized that he can't hit a low and away slider or curveball and that's all he got. His adjustment was to start swinging at every fastball he saw so that he didn't get into situations where he was forced to hit a breaking ball. He went from 22 walks in his 214 AB prior to July 1st to just 8 walks over his 291 AB after July 1st. Believe it or not, his walk rate this season is actually *better* than what he did during the second half of last season. The difference between this year and last year is that his slugging percentage has dropped off. But if you look closer you'll notice that while the number of home runs hit is down, the number of doubles is up. It's quite possible that a few of those doubles went for home runs last season as well as a few extra triples which he had last year. While his slugging pct is down this year, it's not completely out of line with what he did last season.

 

His approach at the plate is still the same as it was last season - don't pass up a fastball because you may not get another one to hit. When he's going well and making solid contact then he can hit .300. When he's in a funk then he looks really, really bad because he doesn't have the walks to fall back on. He's been basically the same player for the last 1.5 seasons so I don't think we're going to see a huge advance in the coming years. Still, the .830 OPS that he had at the end of August was still above the major league average for a starting RF. His approach at the plate may not have been good, but his production was. Unfortunately, it's that same approach that makes him suceptible to slumps like he's having now.

[southpaw121505]

Then opposing teams just realized that he can't hit a low and away slider or curveball and that's all he got.

I don't think anyone can hit breaking balls that start in the opposite batters box. How on earth does he flail at that pitch so often?