Dave Bush since June 1st

[joepepsi]

9 appearances, 8 starts. Averaging better than 6 ip per start. 7/8 in quality starts-(the other start: 6ip, 4ER). 97 pitches per start.

 

In all, 50ip, 2:1 K:BB, 3.06ERA, .262 BAA, .318 oba, .424 slg. BAbip: .283.

 

Is he becoming Chris Carpenter, just like Ned predicted lo, those many years ago?

[Ennder]

He had a 4.96 xFIP in June and has a 4.51 xFIP in July so it is pretty much just random fluctuation.

 

It is nice to see him back to his career peripherals though, before June he was statistically one of the worst pitchers in baseball, even if his ERA didn't show it.

[fleehaw]

No, he isn't Carpenter, but he has to be upping his value a bit. With the Brewers being out of contention, he should be flipped in the upcoming weeks.

[CheezWizHed]

I was going to post something like this earlier today. But as I looked at his season numbers, I was surprised at how his WHIP, BB/9 and K/9 are similar to last year, when he was "horrible".

 WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB 2004 1.229 8.8 1.0 2.3 5.9 2.56 2005 1.254 9.4 1.3 1.9 5.0 2.59 	 2006 1.138 8.6 1.1 1.6 7.1 4.37 	 2007 1.401 10.5 1.3 2.1 6.5 3.05 	 2008 1.141 7.9 1.4 2.3 5.3 2.27 	 2009 1.469 10.3 1.5 2.9 7.0 2.41 	 2010 1.495 9.7 1.2 3.7 5.0 1.36

His HRs are down, but otherwise, is worse than last year.

 

While I didn't expect Suppan-esque numbers are many were predicting, he seems to be succeeding despite the peripherals. Granted, when it all comes down to it, allowing runs the the only stat that really matters in baseball...

 

 

(edit: chart prettification http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif --1992)

[Thurston Fluff]

The scary part about Bush is he seems like the type of player the Cards find in FA who ends up helping them win the division.

[joepepsi]

I was going to post something like this earlier today. But as I looked at his season numbers, I was surprised at how his WHIP, BB/9 and K/9 are similar to last year, when he was "horrible"......

While I didn't expect Suppan-esque numbers are many were predicting, he seems to be succeeding despite the peripherals. Granted, when it all comes down to it, allowing runs the the only stat that really matters in baseball...

I think his peripherals are skewed because he wasn't very good the first two months of the season. He's been pitching much better since June. His walk rate is 2.7 per 9. K rate 5.4. Those are much closer to his career norms than his starts this Spring. He was quoted a couple weeks ago saying he finally feels back to normal after his injury. Maybe his velocity isn't back, but his numbers certainly look like the guy who in 2008 and early 2009 was a solid 3/4 type starter.

 

I've always thought with a better defense he's a multi year, $8-10 million per year pitcher. Tough to say where the contracts will fall this winter, but it looks like he's back to pre-injury form. Most Brewer fans I hang with have never liked the guy. He'll end up somewhere else, pitch about the same, and these same guys I know will moan how Bush was never this good as a Brewer.

[Baldkin]

Since his last start in May (the 27th), 9 starts (+1/3 of an inning in relief):

 

WHIP: 1.31

H/9: 8.8

BB/9: 2.9

K/9: 5.4

HR/9: 0.81

SO/BB: 1.83

 

So, his numbers over those 9 starts have been much, much better than they were previously. Maybe Bushy has figured something out.

[RobertR]

I don't think we should discount the effect of injury on Bush in 2009. Before he took a ball off his arm, he was putting up these types of numbers.

 

ERA: 4.38

WHIP: 1.19

H/9: 8.2

BB/9: 2.54

K/9: 6.36

HR/9: 1.84

SO/BB: 2.5

 

Nothing spectacular, but it's certainly is arguable that those numbers are representative of what he can do when healthy, while Bush's 2009 numbers in total need to consider that he just wasn't healthy after May, through no fault of his own.

 

That said, he's going to turn 31 this year and he lives on the edge due to questionable velocity, so it's certainly caveat emptor for a long term deal. He'd probably be a really good fit for a team like the Padres due to their big ballpark. He's certainly an ideal player to flip.

 

Robert

[The Truth]

A pitcher like Dave Bush should have value at the deadline. I sure hope they trade him.

 

Always liked Bush, a good solid reliable pitcher when healthy, fully capable of throwing a 3 hitter on occasion. Now is the time to get something for him though...

[PrinceEatMeat]

A pitcher like Dave Bush should have value at the deadline. I sure hope they trade him.

 

Always liked Bush, a good solid reliable pitcher when healthy, fully capable of throwing a 3 hitter on occasion. Now is the time to get something for him though...

Yeah I agree that we should just trade him. The chances of us keeping him after this season are slim to none anyway, so we might as well get something for him and fix the logjam in our rotation.

[LouisEly]

Dave Bush now has a 67% quality start ratio, which ranks 19th in the NL.

 

Perhaps the best thing that could happen to the Brewers right now would be for the Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, Tigers, Twins, Rangers or Angels to have a starting pitcher go down for the season. 7 teams in the AL within 3.5 games of first, plus Boston 5.5 out of first, 2.5 out of the Wild Card. That's lots of potential demand for Bush.

[Never Outhustled]

Dave Bush is back to being Dave Bush, and thats a guy you want to replace in your rotation. He is the perfect symbol of Melvin's struggles to find pitching. Most organizations would have moved on years ago.

[dlk9s]

Dave Bush is back to being Dave Bush

Yes, because regular "Dave Bush" normally gives up 10 runs in 2 innings. The bottom line is that this year, he has had many more good/ok games than bad, it's just that his bad ones have been really bad.

[Never Outhustled]

Dave Bush is back to being Dave Bush

Yes, because regular "Dave Bush" normally gives up 10 runs in 2 innings. The bottom line is that this year, he has had many more good/ok games than bad, it's just that his bad ones have been really bad.

 

What I mean by Bush being Bush is that he once again has an ERA below league average. The NL average for a starter is 4.14, lower than usual. Boy our pitching stinks.

[Invader3K]

Yes, but where will he finish out the year?

[dlk9s]

Nobody said Bush is a top of the rotation starter. He's a decent 4/5 guy, so having a slightly below average ERA isn't really a big deal. To me, at least.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think what X ellence means is that Bush like many pitchers Melvin has brought in pitches with a very small margin for error. That means big blowups are inevitable and that you aren't going to beat good teams consistently.

[joepepsi]

He's had 3 games where he stunk, plain and simple. Against the Cubs it was 9 RA in 3-2/3, the Twins it was 9 runs in 1/3, last night 9 runs in the first inning. Yet his ERA is just 4.34. That tells me he's been very good at preventing runs in his other 17 appearances.

 

And let's be honest. Poor defense is as much to blame for the 1st inning last night. They don't make 3 errors, the end of the inning is 5-0 and Brewers win the game 9-6. On a team with better infield defense Bush would have a better than league average ERA.

[Invader3K]

I guess my feeling is that Bush isn't really bad enough to complain about that much. He'll probably be gone next season. This team desperately needs a #1/2 type pitcher to match up with Gallardo so we don't have the rest of the rotation filled with some mix of Bush/Wolf/Narveson/Parra/Davis/Capuano types.

[brewmann04]

That the brewers main prpblem most of the guys are 4/5 th starters.

[Roderick]

He's a decent 4/5 guy,

Agreed. But how much is he going to get in 2011? $6-$7M? Seems to me the Brewers need to trade him (and Coffey) before the deadline not only for the prospects but to clear the salary to get a #1/#2 pitcher.

[monty57]

Agreed that Bush should be traded, as he has value and we'll get no compensation for him when he walks at season end.

 

Last night was bad timing to have one of his "blowup games." I'm sure other teams are watching him as a potential deadline pickup, so it can't help to see that kind of outing. What GM wants to trade for someone and then have him give up nine runs in the first inning?

 

That said, it makes a lot of sense to trade Dave Bush soon... which means it probably won't happen :-)

[TooLiveBrew]

Honestly, last night's outing aside, I think most GMs can see through the smoke & mirrors of an average ERA to see that Dave Bush just isn't a very good pitcher. Many organizations probably have a guy or two in AAA that could come up & post a K/9 rate of roughly 5 & a BB/9 rate of roughly 4. He's just not special on the mound in any way, especially now after the injury last season stole 2-3mph off his fastball. I guess it only takes one bad move by another GM, though.

[Ennder]

Dave Bush is back to being Dave Bush, and thats a guy you want to replace in your rotation. He is the perfect symbol of Melvin's struggles to find pitching. Most organizations would have moved on years ago.

Bush has a career ERA of 4.65 now over 1035 IP. Other pitchers with an ERA in that same general range with 600+ IP include Marquis, Floyd, Silva, Chen, Suppan, Lohse, Perez, Francis, Jackson etc. Sure you don't build your rotation around them but not like Melvin is somehow an idiot for keeping a guy around that fits this mold. If you use xFIP instead taking into account he is in a bad park for his skillset and plays with a bad defense behind him he is a 4.45 xFIP pitcher.

 

Other pitchers around the same xFIP include Willis, Padilla, Blanton, E. Santana, Davis, Garza, Meche, Arroyo, Carmona, Cain(yes outside of that park he would not be a 'stud'), Garland, Snell etc on top of many of those same names.

 

Almost every team has 1 or 2 Dave Bush type pitchers in the rotation, usually one is a young up and comer and one is an older guy. Dave Bush is hardly a symbol of anything, he is just a #4 pitcher on a team that has struggled to produce #1-#3 quality arms.

[CheezWizHed]

That the brewers main prpblem most of the guys are 4/5 th starters.

 

Close. Their problem is that their

 

best pitcher is a #1 Gallardo

2nd best is a #3/4 Wolf

3rd best is a #4/5 Bush

4th best is a #6/7 Parra

5th best is a LOOGY: Narveson

 

Bush is hardly a problem to focus on for this year. Parra and Narveson are not MLB starting grade pitchers (at least right now). I'm pretty sure neither will become that either. But better to find that out this year than next.

 

Bush's pending FA is really the only reason to move him right now.

 

If we had two pitchers in-between Gallardo and Wolf, I'd be perfectly happy with Bush as #5.

 

What I mean by Bush being Bush is that he once again has an ERA below

league average. The NL average for a starter is 4.14, lower than usual.

Of course, by league average, that would be the definition of a #3 starting pitcher, right? Bush was there before last night...