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How big of a deal will Marcum get?


If he comes back and looks good in 7-9 starts I could see a team like Kansas City offering him something in the 4 year 40 million+ range. Would you be comfortable signing Marcum in that range if Greinke is out of our price range this off-season? I'm not sure. I don't think you can count on him for 200 innings but 160-180 innings a year of sub 4 FIP is pretty valuable. If you figure some things out in the bullpen and add one solid starting pitcher I think the Brewers will be a competitive team next year so it might be a good risk to take.
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If he comes back healthy, I think you just make him the qualifying offer. Then you either a get a pretty good pitcher for next year or an extra draft pick. I would maybe consider a 2 yr/16-20 mil offer but not sure he'd take it.
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I'd offer him a reasonable 1-year deal. If he doesn't take it, I'd just walk away. There's no way I'd offer him the $13 million qualifying offer. It really wouldn't surprise me if he actually prefers a 1-year deal at this point. He probably just wants to come back and prove that he can stay healthy, and try to get a better multi-year deal next offseason. He'd have to settle for a lot less to get a multi-year deal at this point. I think he'd take a 1-year, $13 million deal and run with it. That's why I wouldn't offer it.
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I'd probably be willing to "gamble" on the qualifying offer. From what I understand, he's looked pretty good down in the minors so far. Have to remember a guy like Ben Sheets sat out a whole season and then got $10 million from the A's. Marcum will definitely have value on the FA market. Marcum doesn't have Sheets' extensive injury history either.
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Marcum's getting older, not old but older. He might be looking for that one big deal while he's still in his prime production years. In that case he wouldn't take a qualifying offer anyways.

 

Now he probably won't get multi year deals (at least not good offers) if he doesn't pitch at least 5 times before the season's over. So we'll see when he comes back how it goes.

 

Overall I think it's worth putting him on a K-Rod one year deal. If it doesn't pay off then it works out just like K-Rod did this year. If it does work out then you have an all-star potential starter on your team.

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I think a lot of people here are under rating the market value of a starting pitcher of Marcum's caliber. Before he went on the DL this year he was the Brewers best pitcher and had his k/9 at 8.4, which is pretty good for a guy who rarely touches 90. If he comes back and throws 50 good innings to finish the season he will definitely get some teams interested in going multi-year with him. He may be satisfied with the qualifying offer in order to re-establish his value, but if he was more comfortable with 3 years around 25-30 mil you can't tell me that's not a pretty good risk to take.
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From what I understand, he's looked pretty good down in the minors so far.

 

Better look up his last start, then rephrase that statement...

 

:tongue

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Given his injury history, one year. He didn't have one healthy season with the Brewers.

 

 

How was last year not a health season? I don't recall him missing any starts and he made 33 starts with 200 innings pitched the year following 31 starts with 195 innings pitched.

 

Now I have concerns about his health and you're not alone in that, but to say he hasn't had one healthy year simply isn't accurate. He had TJ surgery, two healthy years, one in which he didn't miss a start, and the prior year I would guess they limited him a little bit after coming back, though I'm not sure. And this year he's been hurt.

 

I think 4 years and 40 million is ridiculous for a pitch I have very little faith in when it comes to big games and I'd much rather put that money toward an Edwin Jackson type pitcher, or Dan Haren if the Angels decide to try and sign Greinke and decline his option. Though Haren isn't a real power pitcher either.

 

But 2 years 18 million sounds about right. I would guess you'd get 320 innings out of him and they should all be around a 3.50-3.70 ERA.

Icbj86c-"I'm not that enamored with Aaron Donald either."
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I'd probably be willing to "gamble" on the qualifying offer. From what I understand, he's looked pretty good down in the minors so far. Have to remember a guy like Ben Sheets sat out a whole season and then got $10 million from the A's. Marcum will definitely have value on the FA market. Marcum doesn't have Sheets' extensive injury history either.

 

 

I don't know about that. Sheets had a couple minor little things before he developed anything serious. Those inner ear things that cost him the better part of a couple years.

 

Marcum's got terrible mechanics, has had Tommy John surgery, and has had recurring shoulder soreness. He's pitched two complete and relatively healthy big league seasons whereas at the same age Sheets had thrown over 600 more innings and made over 100 more starts.

 

And Ben Sheets was a different and much better pitcher than Marcum when healthy, AND I think that was an aberration. Chris Carpenter may get 10 million after missing a full year this year from the Cards next year..if he wasn't already signed. But those are rare cases and rare caliber of pitchers under which I do not believe Marcum falls.

 

It's already the end of August before he's ready to go, so that gives him one month. This is a guy mind you who throws 86-88, had TJ, missed a big chunk of this season and blew up something awful in the post-season.

 

Those are just reasons why I think people saying we're "underestimating him," are overestimating him and his value. You need more upside IMO to justify taking that type of risk and Marcum simply doesn't offer it on a multi year big deal. Again, 1 year, even at the qualifying level, I'd take him back there, perhaps he stays healthy and pitches well enough to earn us a couple of prospects for our risk if we aren't in contention.

Icbj86c-"I'm not that enamored with Aaron Donald either."
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Brewer Fanatic Contributor

 

 

Marcum's got terrible mechanics, has had Tommy John surgery, and has had recurring shoulder soreness.

This nails a lot about Marcum that scares me.

 

I don't think anyone can question his effectiveness when healthy. But sinking money into him at this point is a risk. If he looks okay at the end of the year, I'm okay with a reasonable one-year deal - $6-8 million. Maybe even an option if he's open to it. But I wouldn't do more than that.

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Marcum signing a 1 year deal would be huge. You'd think he'd do a 1 year deal to try and get a bigger deal after that... but I would go for a 2 year/10-12 mil deal. I doubt he'll get more than that. 1 year for 6-8 mil would be ideal.
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As a free agent with some health, he's a 4 year $60 million type pitcher. As a pitcher looking for a bounceback, someone would happily give him 1 year at $6-10 million. If he's strong the next month, he's a definite guy you make the required offer to.
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As a free agent with some health, he's a 4 year $60 million type pitcher. As a pitcher looking for a bounceback, someone would happily give him 1 year at $6-10 million. If he's strong the next month, he's a definite guy you make the required offer to.

 

You are saying you'd have no problem overpaying by somewhere between $3.3 and $7.3 million just to make sure he doesn't go elsewhere?

 

Wouldn't it be more prudent to offer him his true value (6-10), then if he takes it, you still have extra to use to bolster the bullpen and if he doesn't, then go after someone else with the money you aren't spending on him?

 

I have more confidence that they can attract another comparable arm without overpaying or deal for one as good who's cheaper and replace the talent given up in the deal with the money saved.

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I think he'll get a deal near what wolf just got...3 years and between 30 and 40 million...or he could try and rebuild his value, but with his injury history, i think he goes for the multi year deal...if he has another half season during his value rebuilding year, he may never have another multi year offer...
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Wouldn't it be more prudent to offer him his true value (6-10), then if he takes it, you still have extra to use to bolster the bullpen and if he doesn't, then go after someone else with the money you aren't spending on him?

 

Yes it would. If he proves healthy and effective for the rest of this year, I'd offer him a one-year deal to see if I could get him on a "lowball" deal to allow him to rebuild his value. If he doesn't take this deal, I'd have to be pretty sure he's going to get offered a multi-year deal by someone else before I'd make the qualifying offer. I'm sure Marcum would take a 3-year/$30MM deal over the qualifying offer, so if the market looks like it's going to give Marcum a multi-year deal, Melvin could make the qualifying offer. However, his misread of the market last year is the reason K-Rod is still on the roster, so he might be gunshy.

 

Marcum recently said something to the effect that he'll be pitching for the other 29 teams as he's showcasing himself for free agency. That quote didn't lead me to believe he's going to be a Brewer in 2013. I think he'd love to sign here, but he's never been approached, so I'd guess he's going elsewhere.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

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Marcum's got terrible mechanics, has had Tommy John surgery, and has had recurring shoulder soreness.

This nails a lot about Marcum that scares me.

 

I don't think anyone can question his effectiveness when healthy. But sinking money into him at this point is a risk. If he looks okay at the end of the year, I'm okay with a reasonable one-year deal - $6-8 million. Maybe even an option if he's open to it. But I wouldn't do more than that.

 

I really doubt Marcum would take a one year deal below the QO, but if he did, it likely would have to be loaded with incentives to pay him significantly more if he stayed healthy all year and maybe a vesting option he controls for a second season.

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Marcum's got terrible mechanics, has had Tommy John surgery, and has had recurring shoulder soreness.

This nails a lot about Marcum that scares me.

 

I don't think anyone can question his effectiveness when healthy. But sinking money into him at this point is a risk. If he looks okay at the end of the year, I'm okay with a reasonable one-year deal - $6-8 million. Maybe even an option if he's open to it. But I wouldn't do more than that.

 

I really doubt Marcum would take a one year deal below the QO, but if he did, it likely would have to be loaded with incentives to pay him significantly more if he stayed healthy all year and maybe a vesting option he controls for a second season.

 

 

Not now when he's back and pitching pain free for what will probably be about 6-8 more starts. He'll be able to show teams he's healthy, he's got a good track record before this year of 195 and 200 IP with a very good ERA and he's been good this year when on the bump.

 

But I think 3/30 is about the max and I see that coming from a KC type team, or Seattle. Not the usual big spender.

Icbj86c-"I'm not that enamored with Aaron Donald either."
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Speaking of Sheets, I'd rather give him $6.5 million

 

Sheets is going to get a heck of a lot more than that if he keeps pitching how he has so far.

 

 

I'm not just saying this because he's on the DL now...though he went on later in the day when you posted this, but when you said that, he had given up 14 ER's in the previous 16 IP, and his velocity was decreasing.

 

And he hadn't pitched in two years.

 

I don't know how much Ben Sheets would have gotten if he'd stayed healthy the last month+ going into next year, but I doubt any team would have given him a "heck of a lot more," than 6.5 million over 1 year when he'd thrown 6-7 good weeks of baseball in three seasons(that's IF he'd have stayed healthy.)

Icbj86c-"I'm not that enamored with Aaron Donald either."
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