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Name your starting 5 for 2013


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If you were Melvin and you are looking into the window of the 2013 season who would you be looking at to be your starting 5? Here is who I think will be in our starting 5:

1. Gallardo - Contrary to popular belief he is not traded.

2. Marcum is brought back

3. Fiers has guaranteed his spot

4. Estrada - unless he is absolutely atrocious in Spring Training and 1 of the names mentioned below is amazing.

5. Peralta wins a spot

 

To the Pen / Long relief / Marcum Insurance

1. Thornburg - He might go to AAA. As he has 1 season above A ball.

2. Rogers

 

Take a guess: In August 2012, who do you have as our April 2013 starting five? (doesn't have to be guys in our system or currently on our team. If there is a FA, that you believe makes a ton of sense for the Brewers to go get, then mark em down.

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1. Yo

2. Marcum on one yr/QO

3. Fiers

4. Rogers

5. Peralta/Thornburg

 

That would be my starting rotation right now if I were running the team. I don't think Estrada is capable of making it that 2nd/3rd time through the order so I think he just further strengthens the pen. Whoever loses out on the last spot spends at least until June in AAA, as both are still pretty young and should stay stretched out as starters. If someone struggles/gets hurt, they would get the first call.

 

However, I think Estrada is pretty much guaranteed a spot at this point by the Brewers' brass and I don't know if they would offer Marcum that QO. I think my rotation looks pretty solid but replacing Marcum with Estrada has me scared.

This is Jack Burton in the Pork Chop Express, and I'm talkin' to whoever's listenin' out there.
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1. Yo

2. Shields

3. Marcum

4. Fiers

5. Rogers

 

Yes I realize shields may get blown away by a larger market team, but I think he would be a much more realistic target than greinke (because of the Cy young season). I don't see anyone offering marcum anything of quality so I would doubt we need to offer him the 13 million that would be due through arby.

"Did I ever tell you how I became a Postman Abby? I don't know if you'd laugh or cry"-The Postman
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My guess:

 

1) Yovani Gallardo

2) Edwin Jackson (4-year deal)

3) Michael Fiers

4) Wily Peralta/Marco Estrada

5) Somebody horrendous that Melvin will still sign (e.g. Jason Marquis)

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SRB - If that stands for Stevie Ray Braun I'm highly impressed.

 

Here's what I've got:

 

Gallardo - Fiers - Marcum (1 year deal) - Estrada - Rogers

 

If they can get 150 innings of healthy Marcum for $10MM, that's probably a pretty solid rotation. Of course, we don't really know how healthy Marcum is or how willing the Brewers are to sign him to this type of deal, or how willing Marcum is to sign such a deal! Still though, I'm optimistic about the rotation.

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Jennings

Ellis

Harris

Ilyasova

Dalembert

 

This made me laugh probably harder than it should have.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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1. Yo

2. Shields

3. Marcum

4. Fiers

5. Rogers

 

Yes I realize shields may get blown away by a larger market team, but I think he would be a much more realistic target than greinke (because of the Cy young season). I don't see anyone offering marcum anything of quality so I would doubt we need to offer him the 13 million that would be due through arby.

 

You make it sound like Shields is a free agent. He's not.

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I'd also hope for Marcum's return, & thus:

 

Yo, Marcum, Fiers, Rogers, & Estrada...

 

...with the hope that someone else good is acquired/signed to bump Estrada to the 'pen (for his & the bullpen's sake). Narveson's a wild card in there, perhaps, but I'd seriously doubt he's anywhere near the Milwaukee rotation on Opening Day 2013.

 

I think an Edwin Jackson type guy is a reasonable possibility, kinda this year's equivalent of Randy Wolf 3 winters ago -- not stellar but probably pretty solid -- but there are so many pending FAs, most with some question marks in their track record if they happen to be considered remotely "affordable," that I just can't get very interested in August about who the winter's FAs are (beyond Greinke, of course).

 

I really like that the Brewers are still kinda in the driver's seat on Marcum. The rest of the season, he's auditioning for the 2013 Brewers as much as he is for the other 29 teams. If he pitches well & they Q.O. him, then we either get Marcum back OR an extra high draft pick (right?). For lack of Greinke returning (admittedly I'm one who firmly believes that would be an awesome move, however unlikely), a healthy Marcum's a very solid & positive option.

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1. Yo

2. Shields

3. Marcum

4. Fiers

5. Rogers

 

Yes I realize shields may get blown away by a larger market team, but I think he would be a much more realistic target than greinke (because of the Cy young season). I don't see anyone offering marcum anything of quality so I would doubt we need to offer him the 13 million that would be due through arby.

 

You make it sound like Shields is a free agent. He's not.

 

Looking at it again, my mistake... Apparently a beat writer got it wrong just like me.

"Did I ever tell you how I became a Postman Abby? I don't know if you'd laugh or cry"-The Postman
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I continue to pine for Greinke and am actually rooting for him to fail lin LAA so the Angels aren't interested in investing big in him. It's almost like an ex that I'm not over.

 

 

And since I am of the belief that free agency is changing with the looming luxury tax and that teams are becoming more cognizant of the luxury tax and will be less likely to go nuts in Free Agency(though I know everyone will point to last year, there have always been outliers in the FA market, I don't think we're seeing the inflation that others believe. I think just like other periods when guys like Mike Hampton, Kevin Brown, Albert Belle, Derek Jeter, Darren Driefort, Chan Ho Park, then Arod, and so on, the market then settles down a bit. Pujols and Prince where excetions in MY opinion.

 

So I think our competition for Greinke will likely come from teams that traditionally wouldn't be interested. The Tigers, Angels and Dodgers(unless they go through with that...ridiculous deal in which they take on Crawford and Beckett's deal) will be the bigger market teams with the Rangers focussed on Hamilton or perhaps trading for Shields. After that, I think KC is a legit threat...I could see him going home as some of their young guys are hitting their stride, Pitt I think would be wise to spend on a rock for their rotation as they could easily be a WS contender if Cole makes the jump next year and they dangle Taillon and Marte to the D-backs for Upton and then spend on Greinke with McDonald, Burnett, Cole and a number of #5 options.

 

But I remained convinced his experiance in Milwaukee, and the Brewers opinion of him is high enough that unless the old pizza man from Detroit goes nuts, we'll be competitive with the other teams in on him.

 

So with all that said...

 

Greinke

Gallardo(though if there was any truth to the rumors that we could get two of Bauer, Skaggs or Bradley for him, I'd do that in a second)

Edwin Jackson-2/22 rather than Marcum if he has as much trouble signing next year as he did this past year.

Tyler Thornburg-Not sure about him yet. Not very impressed in him at the big league level but that was like a flash. Just didn't have that "wow," secondary pitch that Rogers did or the explosion on his fastball. But I think he's a safer bet.

Mike Fiers-I think he could be a great #5

 

Wily Peralta-In case my obsession with Greinke doesn't come to fruition.

 

Estrada-Swing

Rogers-could also be a swing, still like to see a little more work on his command in AAA.

Narveson is a huge question mark.

Nelson's still a full year away I think. I'd like to see him dominate the first half at AA and then move up and be a call away.

Burgos-Still don't know what to make of him.

 

That's 8 pretty viable in house options without using Free Agency we have to go to next year that are all pretty viable with Nelson knocking on the door and not counting Marcum(who is probably more realistic at 1/10 than Jackson is).

 

And with younger talent that looks like it COULD contribute in Jungman, Bradley(still haven't lost confidence), Hall, Ross will be back next year as will Scarpetta hopefully, Lopez, Miller and others hopefully the Brewers inability to produce from within has been rectified as it'll have to be with such a large number starters from this year gone.

 

 

Makes you appreciate what an absolute ROCK Gallardo has been in that rotation over the last several years....but I'd still take my chances on that proposed D-backs trade that'd give us two guys with higher ceilings, though unproven.

Icbj86c-"I'm not that enamored with Aaron Donald either."
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My starting rotation:

Gallardo

FA or trade addition (Edwin Jackson is one FA I wouldn't mind)

Peralta

Rogers

Fiers

 

Thornburg in AAA to work on stamina, and first man up in case of injury.

 

 

What I think DM will do (unless Peralta comes up & looks great in his September starts):

Gallardo

FA/trade addition

Estrada

Fiers

Rogers

 

With Thornburg at AAA, and Peralta repeating AAA so his confidence is shot.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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My starting 5 for 2013

 

1)Yovanni Gallardo

=>I hope he's a brewer for life.

 

2)Shaun Marcum, Roy Oswalt or Jeremy Guthrie to 1 yr deal.

=>Try and give Marcum a chance. If they want to go with someone else, I would look into Oswalt. Im surprised people haven't thought of him as an option (could be his health). Then Guthrie should be looked at. Not great career numbers but he played in the AL East almost his whole pro life. He should get better moving to the NL against weaker lineups (I know he pitched in the NL this year for Colorado but that place kills pitchers).

 

3)Rich Harden, Colby Lewis, or Chris Young to 1 yr deal.

=>All three pitchers coming off injuries and should be cheap options. Harden took the whole year off because of muscle problems. Lewis, if all goes well (and depends on if Texas lets him go), should be able to pitch around the start of next year. And Young came back this year off injuries to pitch with the Mets. Yes very risky but cheap, especially Harden and Young. Basically hoping to hit a "Flash in the Pan" year.

 

4)Michael Fiers

=>Looked good all year minus a couple blowup starts. Deserves the chance to pitch 180-200 innings next year.

 

5)Wily Peralta

=>I think he has nothing left to do in the Minors. He's finishing this year strong and I believe he is the most MLB ready of our pitchers in the minors.

 

Estrada, Rogers, and Hernandez in the bullpen. And with how risky my rotation could be, it would be nice to have 3 guys who are stretched out and can start in a pinch. I also like having Livan in the bullpen to provide veteran bullpen presence. Do you think he could be a Player/Coach, maybe offer him the bullpen coach job too? ;) killing 2 birds with one stone

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This is who I think they'll have on opening day:

 

1. Gallardo

 

2. Fiers

 

3. Rogers (no options gives him edge on Peralta, Thornburg)

 

4. Joe Saunders (Melvin shops for another veteran lefty as insurance in case Narveson isn't ready. At least this time he doesn't pay much)

 

5. Narveson shows he's ready in Arizona, and he grabs 5th spot over Estrada who's needed in pen.

 

In July, Brewers will be close enough, have the payroll room and prospects and will shop for big name starter to bolster the rotation down the stretch.

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am i the only one who has noticed how good Marco Estrada has been this year? Other than the longball, he's been fantastic--- a 1.18 whip, more than a k per inning...he's actually been right about as good as Marcum...

 

I think Marco is definitely in the rotation---and is a good deal more deserving than mark Rogers

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Wow, surprised no one wants to go young.

 

Personally I'd roll with this...

 

Gallardo

Fiers

Rogers

Peralta

Thornburg

 

Long man, 6th starter - Estrada

 

...take my lumps for one year, put a strong bullpen behind these guys, see what we have in the youngsters, and then look to contend in 2014 with payroll flexibility to shore up whichever spots prove to overwhelmed by major league competition.

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am i the only one who has noticed how good Marco Estrada has been this year? Other than the longball, he's been fantastic--- a 1.18 whip, more than a k per inning...he's actually been right about as good as Marcum...

 

I think Marco is definitely in the rotation---and is a good deal more deserving than mark Rogers

 

 

You can't dismiss the tendency to give up the long ball. Especially the fact that most of them (13 of 16) occured from the 4th inning on. His OPS against goes from .588 in innings 1-3 to .828 in 4-6 and a whopping 1.444 from the 7th on. Thats a formula where games get turned suddenly and contributes to his win total being so low along with poor run support and shoddy relief. His stuff is different, but Dave Bush had a similar tendency.

 

I like Estrada, but I think he'd more have more value coming out of the pen.

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I don't know if we have enough evidence to say if Estrada will continue to give up dingers or not. What we do know is that he strikes out a lot of batters and doesn't really walk that many. I would not be upset to see him in the rotation because I doubt that Peralta would beat his numbers but if you put Peralta in there and stuck Estrada in the pen as a long man it wouldn't be the end of the world either. But frankly, I think Estrada has earned a shot to start every fifth day.
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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am i the only one who has noticed how good Marco Estrada has been this year? Other than the longball, he's been fantastic--- a 1.18 whip, more than a k per inning...he's actually been right about as good as Marcum...

 

I think Marco is definitely in the rotation---and is a good deal more deserving than mark Rogers

 

You can't dismiss the tendency to give up the long ball. Especially the fact that most of them (13 of 16) occured from the 4th inning on. His OPS against goes from .588 in innings 1-3 to .828 in 4-6 and a whopping 1.444 from the 7th on. Thats a formula where games get turned suddenly and contributes to his win total being so low along with poor run support and shoddy relief. His stuff is different, but Dave Bush had a similar tendency.

 

I like Estrada, but I think he'd more have more value coming out of the pen.

 

Pogo, I'm with you on this one. JB, you make good points, however there are three other things to consider:

 

1) Bouncing Estrada back and forth between the rotation and pen and the rehab stint has likely caused Estrada to not be fully stretched out at times. The significantly higher OPS-A in the later innings might be caused by this.

 

B) Moving him to the pen assumes that there are better starters available. I'm sure most pitchers would probably make better relievers than starters. However you want your best pitchers pitching the most innings - i.e. being your starters. If there aren't five better starters in spring training, then he should be a starter. Pogo you're right, Estrada statistically has earned a starting spot more so than Rogers. And while Peralta has been on a nice run lately, his overall body of work for 2012 suggests he hasn't earned a starting spot over Estrada either.

 

3) Looking at his 3-year splits from 2009-2011, Estrada had a higher OPS-A as a reliever (.733) than as a starter (.719). For his career, it is almost equal - .750 as a reliever vs. .752 as a starter. For his career, as a starter he has given up 21 HRs in 551 PAs (1 per 26.2 PAs) and as a reliever he has given up 14 HRs in 376 PAs (1 per 26.9 PAs). So statistically it looks like he is roughly the same pitcher as a starter as a reliever, maybe slightly better as a starter.

 

My prediction:

1) Gallardo

2) Free agent (Marcum or other, not Grienke)

3) Fiers

4) Estrada (actually well above average for a #4)

5) Rogers (allows them to skip his turn occasionally to gradually increase his innings)]

 

Peralta, Thornburg, and Burgos in AAA as insurance.

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i think there is a lesson that we learned about Mark A in the past that makes me confident that if Fiers will be in the rotation next season (i think he will) that Marcum will not. We saw first hand what a disaster lining up consecutive soft tossers in a rotation in series play and i dont think Mark A will do it again. I also think the we learned how effective a rotation can be with one soft tosser that pitches around a nasty 95+ FB SL pitcher and a 93 FB CB pitcher. That said, I really like Marcum and would like to see him back, but the emergence of Fiers blocks it IMO. I am going to give my desired rotation rather than predicted one.

 

-Yo

-Peralta

-Fiers

-Rogers

-Thornburg

 

On think that really rubbed me about the brewers this season was how the bullpen cost the brewers this season and no one could figure out why it was so bad with Ax and Krod and Loe all still there. I think something that everybody forgot is that Estrada was an important part back there as well and we took him away from it to put him in the rotation. He has been GREAT there, better than expected. but i dont think he has the stuff to consistently get three times through the lineup. I also think that we all got enamored by his K numbers that it blinds us to his HR numbers. He is an asset as a 6th man swingman type and we should leave him there.

 

Also, i do think its possible we pick up a FA or two. I really hope that we take guys on 1 year contracts because i fully believe that our young pitching is to the point where it would be a very good move for the brewers to take some flyers and hope for success and a big return at the trade deadline. lets use this sudden surplus in young talent to turn 1 year guys into more talent.

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1) Gallardo

2) Fiers

3) Estrada

4) Rogers

5) Peralta

 

I would not have a problem with that but I'd be willing to bet the Brewers bring in some veteran guy in free agency or via trade. Plus I don't think they want a starting five of all righties even though I don't see it being that big of a problem as long as they can get left handers out.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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Bouncing Estrada back and forth between the rotation and pen and the rehab stint has likely caused Estrada to not be fully stretched out at times.

 

The bouncing to the 'pen you refer to was mostly last year, though not a whole lot -- a few fill-in starts each for Greinke (basketball injury) & Narveson (glove repair gone wrong) -- and two Narveson starts' worth at the very beginning of this year. Basically, after the 1st 2 weeks, Estrada's been in the rotation all year except during the baserunning-caused DL stint.

 

So yes, he's gone back & forth a couple times in nearly 2 full seasons. But it's hardly like the changes in his role have been random or capricious.

 

I generally agree w/ your other points (as I do most of the time) and feel we're probably a stronger team w/ Estrada in the 'pen provided there are at least 5 other solid rotation guys. I just don't think the chinks in Estrada's armor are due to this fairly minimal bouncing.

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Wow, surprised no one wants to go young.

 

Personally I'd roll with this...

 

Gallardo

Fiers

Rogers

Peralta

Thornburg

 

Long man, 6th starter - Estrada

 

...take my lumps for one year, put a strong bullpen behind these guys, see what we have in the youngsters, and then look to contend in 2014 with payroll flexibility to shore up whichever spots prove to overwhelmed by major league competition.

 

Agree with this philosophy. In addition to Estrada, throw in Narveson to compete for a spot. Burgos may even be a mid-season option at the rate he's progressing. It's a lot of unproven young arms, but I'm just not so sure we have good reason to pay for a veteran starter with a couple rotation spots unproven and the bullpen a complete unknown; I'd rather wait until 2014 unless the belief in July is that a good starter is all that's keeping the team from the playoffs.

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