The Jonathan Lucroy Thread

[Warning Track Power]

Lost in the RR hate, Rickie & Gallardo slumps and the implosion of Axford is the overwhelming loss of our solid catcher Jonathan Lucroy. I absolutely love is guy but he has been atrocious at the dish this year. While I didn't expect him to hit .320, I definitely didn't expect him to hit .220. He's been abysmal and is lucky his start has been hidden by other issues with this team or else he might be public enemy number 1. What is going on with Luc?

[gregmag]

As for what's actually going on with him -- is he hurt, is he distracted -- I have no idea. As for what the stats show: last year he had a .338 BABIP and hit .320. This year he has a .219 BABIP and he's hitting .216. That's a drastic swing between extremes: for his career he's at .305 BABIP, .272 BA. His BB and K rates are both down about ten percent from last year. His GB/FB ratio is almost unchanged from last year; line drive % is down about 15 percent (21.1% to 18.2%).

 

What does any of that tell us? Over the 120 PAs he's had, it tells us next to nothing. He could be hurt, or distracted, or falling off; it could very, very easily be dumb luck. If you want to bet on what Lucroy will do the rest of the season, bet on his career totals, plus a bit for being at a typical player's statistical prime. IMHO, it would be kind of pointless to get worked up over a veteran player's performance over 120 PAs.

[dlk9s]

Nobody has failed to notice Lucroy's struggles. It's just that most believe he'll be fine in the long run, so people aren't worried too much about it.

 

And there doesn't have to be a reason every time someone is slumping. Sometimes they're just not playing well.

[bork]

I wonder how much the World Classic affected some of these guys. Pitchers having to ramp it up much earlier than usual and guys like Lucroy rotting away on the bench, when he'd normally be getting regular playing time in spring training.

[brwrsfan]

The WBC probably really hurt him, I think he only got 1 or 2 at bats during that entire time. Instead of getting regular swings, he sees 2 at bats in 7-10 days. Maybe it's not related, but that sure doesn't seem like it would help.

[brewfanks]

Saw this awesome article about pitch framing from the growing-on-me grantland site.

 

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9275754/studying-art-pitch-framing-catchers-such-francisco-cervelli-chris-stewart-jose-molina-others.

 

One thing that stood out is how unlike hitting, a catcher's defensive ability is a reliable and predictable way for a catcher to impact the game. There are no slumps, and the regressions due to age are smaller. On top of that is has an impact. They compare Lucroy as the only one close to Jose Molina, one of the best pitch framers. They say over the past 5 years, Molina's pitch framing alone has been worth 111 runs, or about 11 wins. On top of that it's not like it's close.

 

"...and only Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy has approached Molina levels of framing effectiveness... Since his debut in 2010, [Lucroy]'s saved almost twice as many runs due to framing as any other catcher, aside from Molina."

 

Incredible to me that something so small can have that large of an impact in this game...

[Warning Track Power]

And there doesn't have to be a reason every time someone is slumping. Sometimes they're just not playing well.

Isn't this a double standard for Lucroy vs. Rickie? Shouldn't Rickie be given the same treatment given his performance over most of his career and the second half of last season?

[Taylor Blue]

I absolutely love this guy

 

I'd be careful, I think Jon Gruden has exclusive rights to using this phrase.

[dlk9s]

And there doesn't have to be a reason every time someone is slumping. Sometimes they're just not playing well.

Isn't this a double standard for Lucroy vs. Rickie? Shouldn't Rickie be given the same treatment given his performance over most of his career and the second half of last season?

That statement had nothing to do with comparing Weeks and Lucroy. It was just a general statement about anybody's performance. Sometimes guys suck, sometimes they rake, sometimes they are in between. There doesn't always have to be some mitigating factor like injury, distraction, ill-fitting jock strap, or variable-brightness banner scoreboards.

[thebruce44]

I want to find the thread from this offseason where someone told me I was an idiot for suggesting Lucroy might regress a little at the plate this year.

 

EDIT: Found it, I'm petty, but not petty enough to post the exchange. And I wasn't insulted, just an odd exchange where a poster "expected" a .300+ BA going forward.

[burnzy24]

I think part of the reason Lucroy's struggles have been overlooked is because Maldonado has been even worse than Luc this year at the plate. If Maldonado was hitting anywhere close to what he did last year you would be hearing more people clamoring for Martin to get more playing time. However right now the alternative isn't an attractive option. Boy remember last year when Luc and Maldonado hit a combined .297 compared to the .209 they are sitting at now.

[TURBO]

Over the years, I have come to expect next to nothing offensively from the catcher position. It's easy to overlook given the lack of offense our catchers have provided in the past.

[3and2Fastball]

Lucroy is extremely valuable behind the plate. Would I like him to hit better? Yes, and I think he will. But even hitting .220 he is an extremely valuable player. As the article linked above states, outside of the Molina Brothers, Lucroy is one of the very best in MLB st framing pitches. Our pitching staff needs all the help they can get!

[The stache]

Luc had a pretty good day at the plate yesterday. Let's keep our fingers crossed that this will be the beginning of Jonathan breaking out of his slump.

[pepsimax23]

why did the dodgers throw at lucroy yesterday. i thought i was paying attention and then they threw him high and in. ump warned both sides. all in my section were wondering what had prompted that moment? didnt seem like an accident.

[DocLuna7]

This is not necessarily a knock on Lucroy, but it was very frustrating watching how far off the Lucroy/Peralta battery was working today.

[dlk9s]

why did the dodgers throw at lucroy yesterday. i thought i was paying attention and then they threw him high and in. ump warned both sides. all in my section were wondering what had prompted that moment? didnt seem like an accident.

 

Ethier got HBP.

[adambr2]

This is not necessarily a knock on Lucroy, but it was very frustrating watching how far off the Lucroy/Peralta battery was working today.

 

I don't care for Lucroy much as a defensive catcher, to be honest. It doesn't seem like he calls a great game, and there have now been multiple pitchers that for whatever reason, he cannot get on the same page with. I've never seen that with any other catcher.

[Raw Biz]

This is not necessarily a knock on Lucroy, but it was very frustrating watching how far off the Lucroy/Peralta battery was working today.

 

I don't care for Lucroy much as a defensive catcher, to be honest. It doesn't seem like he calls a great game, and there have now been multiple pitchers that for whatever reason, he cannot get on the same page with. I've never seen that with any other catcher.

 

Yet he's also considered one of the best in the game at framing pitches.

[Bombers]

May 16th was hitting 216 ... June 23rd and batting .279 ... Way to put that abismal opener behind you Luc

[pepsimax23]

And that was a bomb he hit to cf off the batters eye.

[brewcrewdue80]

Let me better that Bombers:

May 20th hitting .208 OPS of .596

 

Today: .279 OPs of .783

 

He's a hitter, he was going to hit. How about 40RBI on the season? I guess on pace for 88? Imagine if he could reach 100rbi?

[LouisEly]

Weird stat of the day.

 

Lucroy has a .783 OPS as a C and has a WAR of 0.8

 

Micheal Brantley has a .693 OPS as a LF and has a WAR of 1.3

 

This is why I don't put a tremendous amount of stock in WAR.

[brewcrewdue80]

WAR includes Defense. Not just Offense. But they're both about the same in that regard. WAR just has that factor built in on position and in this case Catcher must start at a neg. And the OF starts at a positive WAR.

[LouisEly]

Lucroy's defensive WAR is 0.2, Brantley's defensive WAR is 0.3. When I expand to 150 PAs, Lucroy is 10th in OPS out of 29 catchers, Brantley is 26th out of 35 LFs.