2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[1992casey]

Summing up the Wisconsin picks in Rounds 1–5:

 

[pre]ROUND PICK TEAM NAME SCHOOL HIGH SCHOOL POSITION

1 20 Dodgers Gavin Lux Kenosha Indian Trail HS Kenosha Indian Trail SS

2 56 Twins Ben Rortvedt Verona HS Verona C

3 86 White Sox Alex Call Ball State River Falls OF[/pre]

First round call for Lux leads historic weekend for Wisconsin players in MLB Draft

[markedman5]

[Eye Black]

ARTICLE: Fangraphs KATOH projection system thinks pretty highly of Braden Webb projecting him to have the second highest through age-27 WAR of any college player taken in the draft.

 

82. Braden Webb, RHP, Milwaukee

 

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 3.3

 

The Brewers will add yet another KATOH darling to a system that’s chock full of them. KATOH loves it some Braden Webb. His strikeout rate at South Carolina was nothing short of elite for a starting pitcher, giving him one of the second best projection of any draft-eligible pitcher. His walk rate is a tad high, but that feels like nit-picking. Webb’s dominance of the SEC bodes well for his long-term future.

 

ARTICLE: This Fangraphs piece published the day prior to the one linked above focuses on Day One draft picks and their KATOH projections. Below is Corey Ray's projection, but please note the system projects most draft picks to have very low WAR through age-27. The system did give Corey Ray the second highest percentage chance among college draft picks to make it to the majors at 75%.

 

5. Corey Ray, OF, Milwaukee

 

Proj. WAR thru age-27: 1.2

 

Corey Ray has perhaps the most compelling combination of power and speed in the draft. As a junior at Louisville, he belted 15 homers and went a remarkable 44 for 4 on the basepaths. KATOH is somewhat turned off by his mediocre on-base skills, though his speed makes him a very good bet to play at least some role in the majors.

[JDBrewCrew]

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB 15s15 seconds ago

2nd-rder Lucas Erceg, @Brewers agree on $1.15 mil (pick 46 = $1,386,900). Merced slugger, fits 3B profile w/big power & arm. @MLBDraft

[JDBrewCrew]

Corbin Burnes ‏@Burnes16 17s18 seconds ago

Had a great time in Milwaukee and I'm officially a @Brewers. Off to AZ✈️

[markedman5]

[LouisEly]

I saw the Fangraphs projection, but they were missing one critical element in their projections/calculations. The guy they had as #1 WAR through age 27 was a guy who struck out 96 batters in 57 innings... and walked 41. Walking 6.5 batters per 9 innings is not a recipe for getting to the majors, or sticking there.

[StearnsFTW]

Corbin Burnes ‏@Burnes16 17s18 seconds ago

Had a great time in Milwaukee and I'm officially a @Brewers. Off to AZ✈️

 

Sweet. I was a little worried about signing him.

[patrickgpe]

any guesses where Ray fits in on the MLB pipeline top 30, i'm thinking #5 right right before Clark?

 

I'd think so. If we were allowed to update everyone's ranking respectively he is probably #3 or #4. #1 Arcia #2 Hader #3 Phillips #4 Ray #5 Clark

 

according to bleacher report, (take it for whats its worth)

 

system overall #7

 

1) Arcia

2) Hader

3) Phillips

4) Ray

5) Nottingham

6) Diaz

7 Lopez

8) Lara

9) Burnes

10)Clark

[And That]

9) Burnes

10)Clark

Yikes. Nope.

[patrickgpe]

9) Burnes

10)Clark

Yikes. Nope.

I also don't see Diaz at 6 and Nottingham at 5

[MrTPlush]

9) Burnes

10)Clark

Yikes. Nope.

 

Trent Clark is minimum #7 if you really love Nottingham/Lopez.

[Outlander]

Hard to believe the 111th pick in the draft is a top ten prospect in this system.

[patrickgpe]

Hard to believe the 111th pick in the draft is a top ten prospect in this system.

well to be fair, he was projected to be a 1st round pick by PG and MLB.com had him at #39.

 

Bleacher report does have good parts of their website, but i would go other places for their MLB draft coverage. this was just the first updated list i saw and i found it very interesting, so i shared.

[Jenkins5]

Yeah I posted my personal rankings in another trend but I disagree with a lot on this list. For some reason I always dislike Bleacher Report for minor league and draft rankings. In my eyes, Ray is only one who should make the list. Our system is too deep for guys to just pop in with no track record and be rated high. Ray is the exception to me because he is 21, advanced, has a large amount of tools, and a high enough ceiling.

 

Ergec, Burns, and Webb could push the edge of the top 10 by end of the season but not now. The thought that Burns is already higher than Ponce and Diplan is laughable in my eyes. That's not even considering Kirby, D. Williams, K. Mederois, F. Peralta, B. Woodruff, and some of the other risers such as Ventura, Supak, Burkhalter, Perrin, and etc. This is simply BR doing the usual, post draft hype. Days of 2-3 of our top picks becoming top 5-10 prospects in our system are gone.

 

Top 10 prospects in our system:

To me Ray goes no higher than #5, I think top 4 should be pretty set with a combination of Arcia, Hader Phillips, Lopez.

 

From 5-10 a combination of

Nottingham, Ray, Clark, Lara, Ponce, Diplan

 

Just missing but has a case: Isan Diaz

 

Outside of those top 11 rest is kind of a crap shot and full of personal preference. A lot will change between now and Mid Season/ Trade deadline as well as end of the season. For instance if Harrison keeps up his June performance for rest of the summer and is able to cut down his K%, he very well could be back in the Top 10. Same as Mederois. if he bounces back and turns it on in 2nd half of season as youngest arm in league, he can jump back. Ercog comes out like a Lou Palmisano with more Power.....He could make a leap. Webb is 2nd coming of Ben Sheets and proving it, he could jump. As of today though.... I'm confident that those 11 players listed above are our top guys.

[CheezWizHed]

Ercog comes out like a Lou Palmisano with more Power.....He could make a leap. Webb is 2nd coming of Ben Sheets and proving it, he could jump.

 

They would have to play almost exclusively at A-ball (like Ponce last year) to get a large enough sample to really be put in the top 10 consideration. Demolishing Helena as a college player means nothing to me. (As did Mr. Woah Solvdd himself)

[WV Brew]

Braden Webb has now signed per Haudricourt tweet.

[ZBTMP]

Braden Webb's Tweet

[beekay414]

@jimcallisMLB Jim Callis Retweeted Adam McCalvy

3rd-rder Braden Webb, @Brewers, gets $700k (pick 82=$764,800). South Carolina RHP, FB to 96, tight curve. @MLBDraft

 

@jimcallisMLB 34m34 minutes ago

Supp 2nd-rder Mario Feliciano, @Brewers agree on $800k (pick 75 = $851,900). Puerto Rico HS C, good approach & power, solid arm. @MLBDraft

 

Saved over $115,000 on two guys nobody actually thought were under slot types.

 

Erceg was under slot too IIRC

[Jenkins5]

What's Ray's deal? How far could they be? Is he really pushing for overslot or what? All these savings need to go to our 11th pick & hopefully Ray goes for 4-4.1 million to give us a little more to get that signing done. In a slotted system, negotiations shouldn't really take too long.

[battlekow]

I was thinking this:

 

http://first-avenue.com/sites/default/files/images/events/the-lemonheads-its-a-shame-about-ray.jpg

Hopefully Ray has more than a Bit Part in the Brewers' future.

[wichmae]

What's Ray's deal? How far could they be? Is he really pushing for overslot or what? All these savings need to go to our 11th pick & hopefully Ray goes for 4-4.1 million to give us a little more to get that signing done. In a slotted system, negotiations shouldn't really take too long.

Theyre apparently waiting until the team comes back home from the road.

[brewcrewdue80]

Cardinals signed Delvin Perez to slot value of their pick about 2.22mil. I hate the fact they got one of the guys with one of the highest ceilings in this draft. Especially with their draft history, he'll probably exceed expectations now.

[And That]

Brewers working toward agreement with Ray

 

Two sources this week indicated momentum toward an agreement between the Brewers and first-round Draft pick Corey Ray, who could be signed as early as Friday when the team begins a homestand against the Nationals.

 

The Brewers used the fifth overall pick to select Ray, a left-handed-hitting outfielder from the University of Louisville. His signing bonus is expected to fall between $4 million and the $4,382,200 slot value assigned to the No. 5 pick.

[MadThinker88]

If the Brewers could sign Ray for slot or less, then do it. Otherwise I would take the draft pick next year at #5. It would allow for a huge bonus pool next year....