The Brand New Lucroy Trade Thread

[3and2Fastball]

the brewers fans are going to be very disspointed when Gallo becomes our next Bryan. i give them Smith to TT before JJ.

Branyan had a .351/.526/.878 line with the Brewers and a .329/.485/.814 for his career. I would definitely take 5+ pre-free agent years of that.

 

.248/.351/.526 for Branyan w/ Milwaukee

 

And Gallo has put up better MiLB numbers than Branyan. I see Gallo as "Branyan-Plus" with the potential to be even better. And yes, I'll take that

[adambr2]

I can handle trading Nelson and Guerra but not Davies.

 

How can you say that without knowing the return?

 

Agreed. I love Davies and would prefer to keep him, but let's not oversell him. We're not talking about a future ace here.

[MrTPlush]

Evan Grant

2m

Evan Grant‏ @Evan_P_Grant

Nobody has flat out told me: Gallo is centerpiece of a deal to Milwaukee, but all logical signs point that way.

[MillerParkSouth]

Gallo, one of their top 2 pitching prospects and a couple of lottery tickets for Luc and a reliever would be ok.

[BuckyBrewer61]

I'm far from an expert on the whole starting of the service clock thing...

 

Gallo has less than 130AB's as a big-leaguer. In theory, if the Brewers got him and put him in AAA the rest of the year could he have his clock not start until next season? Guessing no, but would be interested to hear a more detailed run-down of the rule if anyone is able.

[paul253]

Branyan had a .351/.526/.878 line with the Brewers and a .329/.485/.814 for his career. I would definitely take 5+ pre-free agent years of that.

 

Where are you getting those numbers from? His stats aren't even close to that. Russell Branyan was a career .232 hitter who struck out once every three plate appearances.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Branyan had a .351/.526/.878 line with the Brewers and a .329/.485/.814 for his career. I would definitely take 5+ pre-free agent years of that.

 

Where are you getting those numbers from? His stats aren't even close to that. Russell Branyan was a career .232 hitter who struck out once every three plate appearances.

 

I'm guessing thats OBP/SLG/OPS

[brewerfan82]

Sorry if that was confusing, those are his OBP/SLG/OPS splits

[endaround]

Guerra has more trade value than Lucroy (even a solid number #3 pitcher for 3 years has like $45 million in excess value if he's being paid the minimum. If you think Guerra is a #2 you are looking at $70-80 million in excess value). There better be a huge amount coming back if Guerra is involved.

[Ennder]

Nobody cares about average anymore so he was posting the more important stats, especially for a player like Branyan.

[MrTPlush]

Guerra has more trade value than Lucroy (even a solid number #3 pitcher for 3 years has like $45 million in excess value if he's being paid the minimum. If you think Guerra is a #2 you are looking at $70-80 million in excess value). There better be a huge amount coming back if Guerra is involved.

 

 

I disagree regardless, but Guerra isn't proven so not even close.

[3and2Fastball]

For more comparisons:

 

Chris Carter at age 22 in AA/AAA - .329/.422/.570 (most of that was in AA though, he only played 13 games that year in AAA where he put up .259/.293/.519)

 

Joey Gallo at age 22 in AAA - .246/.381/.557

 

Joey Gallo at age 21 in AA/AAA - .240/.342/.520

 

A lot of the Gallo hype comes from the absolutely monstrous numbers he put up from Rookie ball to A+ ball

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=gallo-001joe

[FVBrewerFan]

Mendez and Jurado are the guys I want most. Happy to have Gallo or Brinson too, but I want the pitchers most. Mendez is electric. Jurado gas a sinker, nice fit for Miller Park. Ortiz really scares me as Tommy John guy in waiting.

 

How many of these guys they get, depends on how many players the Brewers include. I would do any combination to get back:

 

Brinson or Gallo

Mendez

Jurado

2 lottery guys

 

Then deal Smith for another top 100 guy tomorrow, and count me tickled.

[TheCrew07]

To think that Gallo will hit .240 in MLB is quite a stretch, it may take years to get there if he does at all, let's not pretend that he'll be that good out of the gate.

 

He was the premier power prospect in baseball but I think he's overvalued in the way that most TX prospects are, because the organization's minor league development is so highly thought of.

 

I've not in favor of Gallo headlining at this time.

[3and2Fastball]

Mendez and Jurado are the guys I want most. Happy to have Gallo or Brinson too, but I want the pitchers most. Mendez is electric. Jurado gas a sinker, nice fit for Miller Park. Ortiz really scares me as Tommy John guy in waiting.

 

Agree strongly on Ortiz. He doesn't project as highly either. I've seen Mendez mentioned as one of the top LHP prospects in all of MiLB. Mendez would be the centerpiece, if at all possible, for this trade for me. Moreso than Gallo who I'd also be excited to bring in

[trwi7]

As a 22 year old in AAA this year, Gallo has hit .246/.381/.557 after hitting .314/.425/.636 in AA as a 21 year old. If he hits .230/.360/.540 as a major leaguer, that's great.

[beekay414]

Know somebody that works for the MLB and he's saying that the Brewers are dangling Nelson to try to get Brinson but the Rangers want Luc+JJ for Gallo+Mendez and 2 fliers. So, what I took from that was Luc+Nelson to try and get Brinson and Mendez with the fliers or take the package being given for Luc and JJ. Take it for what it's worth though. Could be something, could be nothing. Your guess is as good as mine at this point.

[adambr2]

Guerra has more trade value than Lucroy (even a solid number #3 pitcher for 3 years has like $45 million in excess value if he's being paid the minimum. If you think Guerra is a #2 you are looking at $70-80 million in excess value). There better be a huge amount coming back if Guerra is involved.

 

 

I disagree regardless, but Guerra isn't proven so not even close.

 

It seems crazy, but I never would have thought a rental of Chapman would be worth more than Lucroy, which he was. It doesn't matter what should be worth what, it just matters what the market says. I think the market has told us that Lucroy alone is worth far less than we thought.

[endaround]

Guerra has more trade value than Lucroy (even a solid number #3 pitcher for 3 years has like $45 million in excess value if he's being paid the minimum. If you think Guerra is a #2 you are looking at $70-80 million in excess value). There better be a huge amount coming back if Guerra is involved.

 

 

I disagree regardless, but Guerra isn't proven so not even close.

 

Drew Pomeranz ERA/FIP 3.09/3.48

Junior Guerra ERA/FIP 2.70/3.67

[MilwaukeesBest]

I don't know why but I'm not interested at all in dealing with the Rangers, that's just my hunch. I was way more excited to pick from the Indians players than I am any package offered by Texas. Gallo doesn't do it for me, and even if he bats to his peak of .250 I think that isn't the centerpiece that I'd want back for Luc alone, let alone Jeffress and Nelson along with it. I do like Brinson but moving up to AA he hasn't really been the player everyone was expecting.

 

Hope I'm wrong though. In Stearns I trust.

[DuWayne Steurer]

If the brewers make a trade with the Rangers and Gallo isn't in it...then Stearns just really doesn't get it...does he??

 

If he doesn't get Gallo, I would say that means Stearns disagrees on the valuation of prospects and lucroys trade value with you, not that he doesn't "get it".

 

Then he has no clue..Gallo is one of the top prospects in all of baseball..if he doesn't value that as an important piece for Luc...he really shouldn't be an MLB GM.

 

 

This stark black and white mindset (again) doesn't mean he "has no clue". It means they see things differently than you. The Rangers may not be offering Gallo. The market for Lucroy may not be what the fans think it is (and fans always, always, always overvalue their own team's assets). Your insistence that Gallo has to be included to meet the criteria that Stearns has a clue is curiously single minded and extremely limiting.

[Warning Track Power]

Bottom line is a trade including Gallo or Brinson is exciting and real. A trade for players 4-6 years away for the best catcher in Brewers history seems like an unnecessary risk.

[rickh150]

Guerra has more trade value than Lucroy (even a solid number #3 pitcher for 3 years has like $45 million in excess value if he's being paid the minimum. If you think Guerra is a #2 you are looking at $70-80 million in excess value). There better be a huge amount coming back if Guerra is involved.

 

 

Really?

[brewerfan82]

Where are people getting this idea that high A players are 4-6 years away from the majors, but AA players are knocking on the doorstep?

[sfl2hnq17]

Personally, my favorite prospect in there is Dillon Tate. I think he could be really good.