The Investment Thread

[yourout]

Monday massacre in progress.

[owbc]

It’s pretty wild that the best strategy to lower interest rates would have been to do nothing. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

Wanted to steer some discussion away from the daily "OMG the sky is falling" in the markets and see if I can get any recommendations for dividend ETFs people would recommend looking into to further diversify my mix of investments.  I'm in good shape with my 401k/roth retirement account, and now have a healthy rainy day savings account built up to the point where I'll have extra cash month to month to invest elsewhere.

I'm at a spot where I'm thinking of using the routine funds that built up my rainy day savings to invest in a low fee ETF that also pays a dividend instead of further increasing how much I'm putting straight into my retirement plan.  Anyone have some solid ones they'd recommend? Looking for one that's a good option to continually invest in over time that does pay a decent sized dividend.  I've done some research on my own but also looking to see if there's similar ETFs others like to what I'm considering.   With the market chaos unfolding it actually feels to me like a good time to dip a toe into this type of investment.

thanks in advance!! 

[LouisEly]

The problem with high-dividend ETFs, as I have learned the hard way, is that the higher the dividend the more sensitive it is to interest rates.

What I am in - and down quite a bit now vs 6 months ago - is PFF.  What I like about it is that they invest in preferred stock of solid, big-name companies (Boeing, Wells Fargo, Citi, KKR, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, AT&T, energy companies, etc.).  But that it's down now also the good thing - it is as low as it has been since the bottom of the COVID plunge in 2020.  Right now the 30-day SEC yield is 6.44% with a 0.46% expense ratio, so a net of about 6%.  If/when interest rates come down, the stock price will rise, adding onto that 6% return.

I've been keeping half of my emergency cash fund in that ETF for a long time, so I hopefully won't need to sell it at a loss anytime soon.  But it hasn't been lower than it is right now since the great recession of 2008 and has topped out around $37, so the historical non-crisis range has been a solid $29-$37 with about a 6% yield.

[wallus]

A few dividend ETFs in my portfolio are Schd, vymi (international) and vig (not a ton of dividend but I like the top 10 holdings)

[BrewerFan]

On 4/20/2025 at 9:16 AM, wallus said:

What % of your portfolio is international?

I have a really boring Roth. I have ~20% in VXUS and then I own TSM(but I assume you meant ETFs). 

My Roth is just steady and boring. I don't get the returns in there and I don't get the gains. So in other words, I wouldn't have been up ~45% in '23/'24 and I wouldn't be down...honestly, I don't even know as I just ignore it at this point, but it's more than the market. 

NVDA and AVGO are down(or were) ~33% and 50% at one point. TSM is down from ~225 to ~150. AMZN was 245, that was down to 170. 

I'm keeping about 12 months of money to cover bills in the Vanguard Settlement Fund and then the rest that I...just don't want to risk in BRK.B.

Every dollar extra has been going into there. I have a newfound appreciation for it. 

[LouisEly]

On 4/24/2025 at 9:51 PM, BrewerFan said:

I have a really boring Roth. I have ~20% in VXUS

I'm in VEA.  Performing better YTD, one year, and 3-year than VXUS.

[LouisEly]

I turn on CNBC this morning and the very first think I see is a graphic running across the screen - "MARKET SELLOFF"

Had a bunch of meetings this afternoon, turn it on again and I see that the Dow and S&P finished up, NASDAQ basically flat.

SMH...

[BrewerFan]

34 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

I turn on CNBC this morning and the very first think I see is a graphic running across the screen - "MARKET SELLOFF"

Had a bunch of meetings this afternoon, turn it on again and I see that the Dow and S&P finished up, NASDAQ basically flat.

SMH...

And META and MSFT had big earnings which...caused Semi stocks to see a nice litttle bump. 

That said...I don't really see how this doesn't turn into maybe the high point of the year. This week, maybe through the end of May. 

Just ugly numbers today and I can't really see them getting much better in the near future. Are you expanding your company in this market? If you make 11 figures as a company, I guess it probably doesn't matter too much. I am...a little surprised at the number of people who genuinely believed other countries would pay for our tariffs. I'm very tired of seeing news reports about how someone's expenses have gone up so much and they had no clue. 

Really? No clue? Nobody suggested tariffs may cost you more money? Not...not ever? 

 

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

6 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

And META and MSFT had big earnings which...caused Semi stocks to see a nice litttle bump. 

That said...I don't really see how this doesn't turn into maybe the high point of the year. This week, maybe through the end of May. 

Just ugly numbers today and I can't really see them getting much better in the near future. Are you expanding your company in this market? If you make 11 figures as a company, I guess it probably doesn't matter too much. I am...a little surprised at the number of people who genuinely believed other countries would pay for our tariffs. I'm very tired of seeing news reports about how someone's expenses have gone up so much and they had no clue. 

Really? No clue? Nobody suggested tariffs may cost you more money? Not...not ever? 

 

 

I guess my outlook is the exact opposite, honestly...

Q1 growth stalled because companies imported a ton of stuff end of Q1 to stockpile prior to tariffs taking effect in part due to confusion, but also as a safeguard - even if whatever they stockpiled wouldn't be enough to sustain a longterm trade war without alot of pain stateside.

We are now not even 1 month into OMG TARIFFS!!!!!! and China is already foregoing a ton of their imposed tariffs on imports because if the US doesn't totally cave, China's economy implodes if they can't sell their crap elsewhere - not in a couple years, more like months.  Factor in the corporate behemoths who rely on China for way.too.much. and all parties involved don't want that sort of implosion to happen overnight.  Low level tariffs will get carried through in a deal that still allows for the flow of cheap stuff coming in stateside from the far east, and a smaller can gets kicked further down the road.

Deals are gradually being sorted out with friendlier nations to reset the marketplace to a new normal.  Meanwhile prices on essentials continue to drop.  

The market has been gradually coming to terms with the fact that sometimes what the 🍊 man says either isn't exactly what he means or isn't an absolute that things have to shift 100% his way to "make a deal" . That should come as no surprise to anyone who's got a pulse over the past decade, but apparently it still does with far too many. 

I think now is still a very good time to buy, and it will continue to be, for awhile.  When the market tries to play the jump to conclusions game based on what comes out of Washington verbally, or even on a sandwich board in the Rose Garden, it tends to overreact more than a touch.

[BrewerFan]

I hope your perspective is right. I would guess it's not a shock where I may lean politically, but...I really hope Trump really DOES build the strongest economy ever and do all the things he said he did last time-this time.

I'm...skeptical that's going to happen. I guess we'll just have to see. I do ironically wish he was listening more to Elon than Navarro at this point, but...it's kinda moot. 

[owbc]

 

14 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I guess my outlook is the exact opposite, honestly...

Q1 growth stalled because companies imported a ton of stuff end of Q1 to stockpile prior to tariffs taking effect in part due to confusion, but also as a safeguard - even if whatever they stockpiled wouldn't be enough to sustain a longterm trade war without alot of pain stateside.

We are now not even 1 month into OMG TARIFFS!!!!!! and China is already foregoing a ton of their imposed tariffs on imports because if the US doesn't totally cave, China's economy implodes if they can't sell their crap elsewhere - not in a couple years, more like months.  Factor in the corporate behemoths who rely on China for way.too.much. and all parties involved don't want that sort of implosion to happen overnight.  Low level tariffs will get carried through in a deal that still allows for the flow of cheap stuff coming in stateside from the far east, and a smaller can gets kicked further down the road.

Deals are gradually being sorted out with friendlier nations to reset the marketplace to a new normal.  Meanwhile prices on essentials continue to drop.  

The market has been gradually coming to terms with the fact that sometimes what the 🍊 man says either isn't exactly what he means or isn't an absolute that things have to shift 100% his way to "make a deal" . That should come as no surprise to anyone who's got a pulse over the past decade, but apparently it still does with far too many. 

I think now is still a very good time to buy, and it will continue to be, for awhile.  When the market tries to play the jump to conclusions game based on what comes out of Washington verbally, or even on a sandwich board in the Rose Garden, it tends to overreact more than a touch.

The market has been patient, it assumed no tariffs until Liberation Day, now it’s assuming trade deals will happen. 

To be fair that is probably a safe assumption, consumers are already getting upset over Temu import fees and we haven’t even seen the empty shelves yet which may force Trump’s hand.

I’m bearish anyway, especially long. Tariffs are going to go up to some extent and the global economy will realign against us to some extent. Manufacturing will not return in any appreciable numbers (although I’m sure there will be cherry picked news stories). The immigration crackdown is going to cause labor costs to go up. 

I’m going to stick to my conservative strategy this year, the recent bump only makes me want to sell more. 

[BrewerFan]

On 5/1/2025 at 12:17 PM, owbc said:

 

The market has been patient, it assumed no tariffs until Liberation Day, now it’s assuming trade deals will happen. 

To be fair that is probably a safe assumption, consumers are already getting upset over Temu import fees and we haven’t even seen the empty shelves yet which may force Trump’s hand.

I’m bearish anyway, especially long. Tariffs are going to go up to some extent and the global economy will realign against us to some extent. Manufacturing will not return in any appreciable numbers (although I’m sure there will be cherry picked news stories). The immigration crackdown is going to cause labor costs to go up. 

I’m going to stick to my conservative strategy this year, the recent bump only makes me want to sell more. 

I mean...I think they expected some tariffs as the market was already down and we still have at least 10% tariffs across the board and the highest tariffs levels since 1932 without the nonsense that came on "liberation day," and the subsequent pause. What were we being "liberated" from? 401Ks I suppose? 

 

I'm also still not sure who is responsible for this economy. Back in January of '24, it was the current President, but in May of '25, it was...well, still the last President... until the following day of course(maybe it was 2 days later) when they came out with the jobs reports.

 

So guess it just depends on how bad these tariffs work out... 

If the Economy is bad, it's the last guys fault, if it's good, well... you can figure it out. It's more of a vibes thing. And that's really how the best financial decisions and data comes about. 

[wallus]

An aspect that I don't see discussed much is how much the value of the dollar has decreased this year 

[Jim Goulart]

 

[wallus]

My girlfriend's family owns a recycling yard. Metal has gone down 40% in the last month. Use that information however you'd like.

[otion881]

On 4/30/2025 at 9:00 PM, Fear The Chorizo said:

I guess my outlook is the exact opposite, honestly...

Q1 growth stalled because companies imported a ton of stuff end of Q1 to stockpile prior to tariffs taking effect in part due to confusion, but also as a safeguard - even if whatever they stockpiled wouldn't be enough to sustain a longterm trade war without alot of pain stateside.

We are now not even 1 month into OMG TARIFFS!!!!!! and China is already foregoing a ton of their imposed tariffs on imports because if the US doesn't totally cave, China's economy implodes if they can't sell their crap elsewhere - not in a couple years, more like months.  Factor in the corporate behemoths who rely on China for way.too.much. and all parties involved don't want that sort of implosion to happen overnight.  Low level tariffs will get carried through in a deal that still allows for the flow of cheap stuff coming in stateside from the far east, and a smaller can gets kicked further down the road.

Deals are gradually being sorted out with friendlier nations to reset the marketplace to a new normal.  Meanwhile prices on essentials continue to drop.  

The market has been gradually coming to terms with the fact that sometimes what the 🍊 man says either isn't exactly what he means or isn't an absolute that things have to shift 100% his way to "make a deal" . That should come as no surprise to anyone who's got a pulse over the past decade, but apparently it still does with far too many. 

I think now is still a very good time to buy, and it will continue to be, for awhile.  When the market tries to play the jump to conclusions game based on what comes out of Washington verbally, or even on a sandwich board in the Rose Garden, it tends to overreact more than a touch.

Couldn’t agree more with your take. The market loves to panic, then correct itself once the dust settles. I’m still buying on dips too, especially boring ol’ index funds and dividend stocks.

That said, I’ve also been tempted by some private investment deals floating around lately, and I had to pump the brakes. Oberheiden P.C. (they deal with securities law and fraud cases) lays it out pretty clear: Reg D offerings let companies raise private capital, but reselling those securities without registering with the SEC requires using Rule 144A. Their breakdown saved me from walking into something I didn’t fully understand: https://federal-lawyer.com/securities-litigation/investment-lawyer/ppm/reg-d-faqs/

[owbc]

2 hours ago, otion881 said:

Couldn’t agree more with your take. The market loves to panic, then correct itself once the dust settles. I’m still buying on dips too, especially boring ol’ index funds and dividend stocks

It’s not that the market panics, it’s that the market is entirely driven by the short term. The current quarter and the next quarter and not much beyond that.  

[MilwaukeeBeers]

I am gonna ask a really dumb question. How do you even get started with investing? Do you go through a financial planner? I just really need some direction in order to start planning for retirement. I am almost 30 and really only just have a decent HY savings account. 

[nate82]

1 hour ago, MilwaukeeBeers said:

I am gonna ask a really dumb question. How do you even get started with investing? Do you go through a financial planner? I just really need some direction in order to start planning for retirement. I am almost 30 and really only just have a decent HY savings account. 

A financial planner is not necessary.  You can do it on your own and if you are worried about the risk then you can just go the ETF route.  It is really simple to setup an account.  You can even setup one where AI will pick your investments for you based on risk categories and what you are using the account for.  Like financial planners you will have to pay a fee for this.  

[wallus]

4 hours ago, MilwaukeeBeers said:

I am gonna ask a really dumb question. How do you even get started with investing? Do you go through a financial planner? I just really need some direction in order to start planning for retirement. I am almost 30 and really only just have a decent HY savings account. 

You don't need a financial planner. Setup recurring investments in something like a total market ETF (VTI) or the S&P 500 (VOO). If you want even more diversification you could always do the total world market. (VT)

[LouisEly]

4 hours ago, MilwaukeeBeers said:

I am gonna ask a really dumb question. How do you even get started with investing? Do you go through a financial planner? I just really need some direction in order to start planning for retirement. I am almost 30 and really only just have a decent HY savings account. 

Not a dumb question.  A financial planner is not necessary.  

Easiest option is if your employer has a 401K with employer match and put everything in a target retirement age fund.  Based on your post in the Job Seeker thread, it sounds like you don't want to be there any more and it isn't good for you, so take that off the table for now.  But when you get a better job, this is the easiest and best because you get the employer match (free money), tax deduction (contributions are deducted from what you are taxed on), and it's easy to set up (automatically deducted from your paycheck).

Second option is to set up an IRA.  If you bank with a large, national bank (such as Bank of America, Chase, Wells Fargo, etc.) they will have an investment arm where you can set one up for free.  If your bank doesn't offer one, it's easy to set one up with one of those big banks.  Easiest is a Roth IRA - you can't deduct what you invest, but when you retire the proceeds are tax-free.  If you want the tax deduction now, set up a traditional IRA.  For a traditional IRA, you can deduct all you put in if you don't have a 401K at work; if you do have a 401K at work, you can't deduct if you make more than $80K/year.  In that case, go with a Roth IRA.

As far as what to invest in, put the first $10K in a S&P 500 fund.  In fact, put most if not all of it in a S&P 500 fund until you learn more about investing.  Vanguard S&P 500 Fund (ticker symbol VOO) is one of the best.  If I could go back and do it over again, I'd put 80% of my investments into a S&P 500 fund.  No need to try to hit home runs.  

[Fear The Chorizo]

On 6/2/2025 at 1:47 PM, MilwaukeeBeers said:

I am gonna ask a really dumb question. How do you even get started with investing? Do you go through a financial planner? I just really need some direction in order to start planning for retirement. I am almost 30 and really only just have a decent HY savings account. 

I would add to what others have posted that the most important thing is starting - whether it's through work or in your own investment account, sort out what you can readily afford to set aside for investing at a routine frequency and make it a point do so regardless of what the larger markets are doing.  Even if it's seemingly a marginal amount, continually feed that investment account.  With regular work 401ks, one thing you'll notice is contributing the first couple %s of your income towards that type of retirement account barely reduces the amount of takehome pay you'd receive, because that amount reduces your taxable income.  And most employers offer rollovers without fees/costs from old company plans into new ones, so even if you're thinking of making a job switch I'd get enrolled in your current company's plan, especially if they have any sort of match to take advantage of.

[CheezWizHed]

On 6/3/2025 at 2:57 PM, Fear The Chorizo said:

I would add to what others have posted that the most important thing is starting - whether it's through work or in your own investment account, sort out what you can readily afford to set aside for investing at a routine frequency and make it a point do so regardless of what the larger markets are doing.  Even if it's seemingly a marginal amount, continually feed that investment account.  With regular work 401ks, one thing you'll notice is contributing the first couple %s of your income towards that type of retirement account barely reduces the amount of takehome pay you'd receive, because that amount reduces your taxable income.  And most employers offer rollovers without fees/costs from old company plans into new ones, so even if you're thinking of making a job switch I'd get enrolled in your current company's plan, especially if they have any sort of match to take advantage of.

Agreed. The best time to start investing is yesterday... the second best is today. 

I started my 401k at 22 (right out of college) and could retire at 60 if I wanted to. I started my kids' 529b accounts when they were young (4, but wish I started sooner).  I ended up putting in enough money for about 1 year of college, interest paid for the second year and part of the third.  The rest was on them. 😏

Behold the power of compound interest.

[zurch1818]

On 6/6/2025 at 10:18 AM, CheezWizHed said:

Agreed. The best time to start investing is yesterday... the second best is today. 

This is so true. Just saving 10% to 15% of your pay check can do wonders. Einstein once said “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” From what I read, it can take 5 to 10 years to get the first $100k (I was more in the 5 year range). But once you get over that, getting the next $100k will go so much quicker. I had fun tracking it once it stated to roll.

I'm curious what people would do here. Does it make sense for me to put more money into a 529 for my kids college? My kids are 4, 2, and 2. My dad just transferred money left over from my 529 and according to my financial advisor, it would cover half of their education (thanks to compounding growth). I calculated that I would be 58 when my twins would be graduating. I have my 401k (mostly Roth...but the employee match and profit share is traditional) and my Roth IRA that should be fund the difference without really affecting my retirement. We also have my wife's retirement...but she is 1.5 years younger. I could just take a loan out (if I can't cash flow it at that point in my career) and pay it in full when I turn 59.5. Is this crazy? It would still be after tax growth. Plus it wouldn't then tie the money up into education (if they choose to not get a 4-year degree).