The Investment Thread

[nate82]

It is early but I was expecting all of my stocks to be in the red today.  So far all green.  

[LouisEly]

Why is the market even open today?  Just to end early at 1pm Eastern one day after being closed?

[BrewerFan]

On 11/25/2025 at 7:46 AM, homer said:

Seems people are starting to wonder if the numbers the big tech companies are reporting are real or fool's gold. Michael Burry has been on this for a while, which is why he's short NVDA. WSJ had an article yesterday on the funky accounting META is using to keep these data centers off its books. 

https://www.wsj.com/tech/meta-ai-data-center-finances-d3a6b464?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfrW_eSEf4HASzKFczHrbTSWibx01KxumVB5-8bxzKibqaTjfAie8hs5kGWA1g%3D&gaa_ts=6925b50f&gaa_sig=zoVy7OODU4PzBBMcIAOiLO5myHnGupeMd3t_RIAqdEpkUD2hrkFVVSusnjjlVzvy2hT1rWKyvGZoCIY3FbSpbg%3D%3D

I think the chickens will come home to roost at some point but when it will happen is anyone's guess. Could be six months, could be six years.

It's getting really hard to take Burry seriously. 

It's like he's chasing that 2008 feeling again.

2017-Called for a market crash and WWIII
2019-Said the ETF bubble would pop and the market would collapse. 
2020-2021-Shorted TSLA a couple times... did poorly. 
2023-Jan He told everyone "sell everything now." He was again... very wrong. 
Shorted NVDA in 2023, '24, '25. He's closed his latest short position. 

His entire thesis kinda falls apart when Ampere(not 5 years old) is still in service due to their software updates. 

He's saying that the actual lifecycle is more like 3-4 years. Ampere is going on 6 years old. 

 

Now, if he was citing private equity and how some of these companies are borrowing SO much money and still a ways away from being profitable, I'd see the logic there, but that's an awfully big claim. Amazon, MSFT, META, Alphabet, Oracle, they're all lying about the depreciation of their GPUs?

Now the guy who he kinda retweets and is... associated with is suggesting NVDA is potentially committing fraud because going back 12 Quarters(which they were bringing in like ~4B in GC revenue) the average period from delivery to getting paid was 46 days. It's not 53 days. Really some big leaps. Just 6 months ago it was how this was so cyclical and 2026 would be a down year... and now you have 500B in commitments through 2026. 

 

NVDA has also gotten beaten down a bit despite just incredible earnings because of reports that Google is going to be selling their TPUs... which... is again, kinda silly... but this was from the co-designer of GOOGL's TPU Ironwood(since deleted) with regard to NVDA. 

[BrewerFan]

On 11/25/2025 at 10:16 AM, Fear The Chorizo said:

That, the jobs and CPI data not being released... which probably means it's pretty bad.

 

No, data just didn't get collected because of the shutdown.  I guess some people may choose to think it's because it had to be bad, but that's just predetermined for some.  Would rather have no data to look at than cooked/manipulated data anyways - which up until recently had been the norm.

 

How did they recently stop it? 

I don't get how CPI would be cooked/manipulated. Jobs is often revised up or down... has been for a long time. But the CPI?

[owbc]

There have been a number of mainstream articles written about the accounting used to keep the hardware investments from looking like giant losses on the balance sheets. 
 

At some point the hardware investments will slow down and the productivity gains and profits will kick in. If that doesn’t phase well, we’re going to have problems. 
 

To me it feels like the dot com bubble with a mix of 2008-era accounting thrown in. It’s easy to see why people might be nervous, even if the long term prognosis on AI is optimistic. Nobody knows what might pop the bubble. This could go on for years. 
 

 

Edited December 1, 2025 by owbc

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, owbc said:

There have been a number of mainstream articles written about the accounting used to keep the hardware investments from looking like giant losses on the balance sheets. 
 

At some point the hardware investments will slow down and the productivity gains and profits will kick in. If that doesn’t phase well, we’re going to have problems. 
 

To me it feels like the dot com bubble with a mix of 2008-era accounting thrown in. It’s easy to see why people might be nervous, even if the long term prognosis on AI is optimistic. Nobody knows what might pop the bubble. This could go on for years. 
 

 

I think it's a little bit of an assumption that it's a bubble at all. 

Spending may slow down, but... a lot of these articles are written by people who... have no real expertise whereas those that do have a different opinion. 

The big article from "Tom's Hardware" that spread... it was written by "12 industry insiders." 

That was picked up by Reuters and spread about how Google is now a major threat to NVDA with their TPUs.

6 of them had zero experiance working for... any of the big companies, certainly no experiance in FAANG, AI Engineers... basically a bunch of interns and some analysts. 

I realize EVERYTHING gets labeled as "manipulation," in the market when a stock doesn't go up, but this past week, since earnings really, there has been some concerted effort to drive down the stock price. 

I don't expect NVDA to keep growing at 62% YOY, but... it's very possible we get ONE more year of that and then just consistent growth. 

I think OpenAI and their ability to generate revenue is going to be a massive indicator, but NVDA just announced a plan to Partner with GOOGL to build a 500B Data Center in Taiwan to "help begin to build the infrastructure for the future of Cloud services in Asia." 

It'd be foolish to say there's no bubble... but I don't know that you can assume there IS a bubble. 

Are we REALLY so sure that the money being spent is more than what the intrinsic value of the massive Data Centers and Cloud Providers will be? If not... it's not a bubble. 
Are these companies really that overvalued? NVDA has a forward PE in the low 20s(depending on the projections). 


**And if NVDA gets export permits to sell the H200 to China... which seems pretty likely at this point, 

Again, not arguing it's NOT a bubble, just questioning the narrative that it's certainly a bubble and now just a massive economic shift  that happens once every... ~100 years or so. 

Quote

At some point the hardware investments will slow down and the productivity gains and profits will kick in. If that doesn’t phase well, we’re going to have problems. 

If there's not a massive ROI on these startups that are borrowing billions of dollars, yeah, that's going to cause a massive collapse in the market.

On the other hand... there are a lot of experts who believe the annual capex for "AI," which includes Cloud services... even though they're not the same, but setting that aside, the annual capex for GPUs, ASICs, TPUs will reach 1.3T per year by 2030(some more aggressive estimates). 

That's Morgan Stanley, UBS, CITI, JP Morgan...

But, again, if OPenAI falls flat and doesn't start generating revenue by 2028 and has hundreds of billions it owes or these other large projects run out of money and can't generate revenue, it's going to hit the the largest companies and that's going to take out a LOT of 401Ks. 

There's also the power issues.

 

The accounting seems to be pretty contrived by Burry though. In fact, in the last year, Amazon has lowered the depreciation cycle on their GPUs to 4 years. META and MSFT have raised it to 6 years. I believe GOOGL has kept it at 5 years.  So they don't seem to know... so to ascribe some fraudulent behavior behind it is irresponsible IMO(that's not directed to you of course, but again, Burry). 

[Samurai Bucky]

Broadcom (AVGO) down 11% today even though they had impressive earnings.  Ouch.

The 5Day chart looks the same for NVDA.  Tied at the hip they are....

 

[nate82]

My stock positions that I purchased in 2025 that I will be keeping.
 

NNE, QUBT, EQX, SES, RKLB, ACHR, SERV, OKLO, and AMKR.

I am completely unsure of which ones I am going to dump.  

[OldHeidelberg]

Are we in TACO territory? Not getting into the politics more looking at buying opportunity this week. I think I will treat it as such.

[nate82]

49 minutes ago, OldHeidelberg said:

Are we in TACO territory? Not getting into the politics more looking at buying opportunity this week. I think I will treat it as such.

I just buy what Nancy is buying.  I am sure going to miss her insider trading tips when she retires.  

[wallus]

59 minutes ago, OldHeidelberg said:

Are we in TACO territory? Not getting into the politics more looking at buying opportunity this week. I think I will treat it as such.

How did Russia's market react before Crimea? 

[homer]

1 hour ago, OldHeidelberg said:

Are we in TACO territory? Not getting into the politics more looking at buying opportunity this week. I think I will treat it as such.

FWIW

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-taco-theory-on-trump-makes-every-dip-a-buy-analyst-says-182738328.html

[owbc]

Betting markets have it at about 75% TACO, 25% serious. So not as confidently TACO as one would hope...

[igor67]

I wonder if the rising debt anxiety indirectly plays a role in that...

[owbc]

It's TACO...for now...

[Fear The Chorizo]

50,000 eclipsed on the Dow Jones Industrials...and to think it was under 8,000 just 17 years ago during the housing market recession

[nate82]

3 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

50,000 eclipsed on the Dow Jones Industrials...and to think it was under 8,000 just 17 years ago during the housing market recession

If you put $500 into Apple on January 2nd 2008 which would have been about 70 shares.  Ignoring the dividends that happened later your $500 investment would be worth about $20,000.  Never ever ever ever ever ever listen to anyone that says you don't have enough money to invest and that investing is stupid because you will never get your money back and it is far to risky and you will lose all of your money!

Also people who pull out of the market during down times are absolute fools.  Now imagine if the GWB administration would have been able to implement the changes they wanted to do with social security.  Social security wouldn't be close to being bankrupt if those changes were implemented.  

[Samurai Bucky]

Why didn't I invest in Sandisk at this time last year?

[AKCheesehead]

By the looks of things this next week could be “fun” watching the pretend money plummet, for the short term anyways. 

[homer]

One thing I've learned over the years is that it's not good to spike a metaphorical football over a good/bad day, week, or month of market performance. 

[owbc]

So far the markets have mostly shrugged it off. Oil prices driving inflation seems to be the biggest immediate risk. 

[LouisEly]

Speaking of inflation, the producer price index (PPI) came in hot last week, but it was entirely driven by services.  Goods actually declined in price, which correlates to the data source that I have which showed a decline in consumer goods prices vs one year ago.

The source that I have access to historically has tracked 93% to the PCE.

[LouisEly]

Aaaaannnndddd the markets finished flat today. 

[owbc]

On 3/2/2026 at 1:28 PM, LouisEly said:

Aaaaannnndddd the markets finished flat today. 

Still feels like there is little/no upside and a ton of downside from an investment strategy perspective. Iran’s entire strategy is going to be to disrupt economic activity. 

[wallus]

Woof