2018 Bullpen

[tmwiese55]

If you have that info in front of you, how many runs were scored by MKE in those games after he pitches? I'd blame it on the O more than anything, it's impossible to have a reliever available every day. And if the BP pitches 4 innings and gives up 1 run they did their job. If the offense scores only 2 though you're in trouble. Just guessing of course, but that's likely the bigger culprit.

[long ball]

Oh I totally agree. In every loss I attributed to the bullpen giving up the tie or lead the Brewers scored 3 runs or fewer.

 

 

Here's the spreadsheet so you can check it out for yourself.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WypU_dzqR6qds8m3EjlnVthPazCLLXxzxsCTgMVhVjg/edit?usp=sharing

[djoctagone]

back to an eight-man bullpen for at least a day with the recall of jorge lopez and the optioning of nate orf.

 

adrian houser is eligible to be recalled tomorrow if need be.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I keep hearing/seeing this narrative that the Brewers back end of the bullpen is so bad. While the anecdotal evidence of watching a guy like Nagurski struggle with the meat of the Braves order is there, I just don't buy it. Fans also need to cut Counsell some slack on his usage and credit Stearns for what he's built. You can't get through 162 games with a 3 man pen. They also have other guys that have pitched well at times like Jennings, Barnes and Williams that should get innings. He's managing Hader to last and if he gives up a game or two along the way, so be it.

 

I took a quick look at bullpens in the NL based on WAR, the WAR of the top three relievers, then the WAR from the rest of the pen. Not deeply scientific, but interesting results. The Brewers have the best WAR outside of the top 3 along with the Cubs & Giants. Only two others are even positive. Also consider that Knebel due to the early season struggles isn't even in the top 3. Place him and his zero WAR in the top three and the rest of the pen is 1.0, well ahead of the rest of the NL. Despite the fan groaning, the Brewers have the best bullpen in the NL outside of the big 3. Imagine how much better some of these teams would be if Jennings, Barnes and Williams were their top 3. Could they always get better? Sure, but it would be improvement from the obvious strength of the team.

 

Team WAR Top 3Rest of Pen

Brewers 4.5 4.0 0.5

Giants 3.7 3.2 0.5

Cubs 2.5 2.0 0.5

Padres 3.8 3.4 0.4

D'backs 2.0 1.7 0.3

Reds 1.8 1.9 -0.1

Dodgers 1.8 2.0 -0.2

Phillies 2.5 2.7 -0.2

Pirates 1.8 2.3 -0.5

Braves 2.3 2.8 -0.5

Cardinals 1.4 1.9 -0.5

Nationals 1.3 2.0 -0.7

Rockies 1.0 2.1 -1.1

Marlins -0.4 1.2 -1.6

Mets -0.9 1.8 -2.7

[djoctagone]

junior guerra did what the brewers desperately needed last night: gave them eight strong innings and kept them in the game. after thursday's night game, the club definitely needed to keep their bullpen fresh.

 

were the need arise for the club to option a reliever to get a fresh arm, the obvious candidates at the moment would be corbin burnes or taylor williams.

 

williams, despite being optioned at the end of spring training, was recalled early in the season and has stayed up ever since. thus, williams hasn't burned his second option yet.

 

burnes has yet to optioned to the minor leagues, so his third option remains intact.

 

as long as either reliever spends less than 20 days optioned in 2018, his option will not be burned. if williams is optioned and spends the requisite 10 days optioned, he moves past 20 days and burns his option.

 

as roster expansion looms in less than a month, i'm sure the brewers are considering these factors. working in the bullpen's favor: five off days over the next 23 games in august--including two in one week.

 

the brewers relievers on the 40-man and number of remaining options:

 

matt albers (0)

alec asher (1)

jacob barnes (2)

corbin burnes (3)

josh hader (2)

adrian houser (1)

dan jennings (0)

jeremy jeffress (0)

corey knebel (1)

joakim soria (0)

taylor williams (2)

brandon woodruff (2)

[adambr2]

Knebel has got to find a way to limit the long ball. He's given up 6 HR this year, more than Hader, Jeffress, Soria, Williams, Barnes, and Jennings, all who have thrown considerably more innings.

 

Hitters seem to be picking up when Knebel is going to stay with the fastball and are just crushing it.

 

A tendency to give up walks plus a tendency to give up HR is a really bad combination, especially for a closer.

[djoctagone]

the personnel for the "bullpen shuttle" have certainly changed in recent weeks.

 

brandon woodruff is being held at colorado springs as a starter, so he apparently is no longer a bullpen candidate.

 

were the need arise for the club to option a reliever to get a fresh arm, the obvious candidates at the moment would be corbin burnes or taylor williams, but corey knebel could be a candidate. if knebel were optioned and recalled 1 september, he would not burn his final option.

 

the brewers relievers on the 40-man and number of remaining options (any optioned player must spend at least 10 days down unless replacing a player on the disabled list):

 

matt albers (0; on disabled list)

jacob barnes (2; optioned 13 august)

corbin burnes (3)

josh hader (2)

ariel hernandez (2; unclear when he was optioned by the dodgers, but he has spent at least 10 days optioned between both clubs)

adrian houser (1; optioned 11 august)

dan jennings (0)

jeremy jeffress (0)

corey knebel (1)

jordan lyles (0)

joakim soria (0; on disabled list)

jake thompson (2; optioned 2 august by the phillies; he has spent at least 10 days optioned between both clubs)

aaron wilkerson (2; optioned 13 august)

taylor williams (2)

 

thus, the only relievers who are eligible to be recalled to replace a non-injured player in the coming week or so are hernandez and thompson.

[TURBO]

I know one thing, I am happy as heck that all the Hader Tweets nonsense has completely died down.

 

That had the potential to ruin the kid, glad that in general, people believe that what he said as a 17 year old, shouldn't dictate his career, or his time as a professional athlete.

 

Bullet dodged.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

the personnel for the "bullpen shuttle" have certainly changed in recent weeks.

 

brandon woodruff is being held at colorado springs as a starter, so he apparently is no longer a bullpen candidate.

 

were the need arise for the club to option a reliever to get a fresh arm, the obvious candidates at the moment would be corbin burnes or taylor williams, but corey knebel could be a candidate. if knebel were optioned and recalled 1 september, he would not burn his final option.

 

the brewers relievers on the 40-man and number of remaining options (any optioned player must spend at least 10 days down unless replacing a player on the disabled list):

 

matt albers (0)

jacob barnes (2; optioned 13 august)

corbin burnes (3)

josh hader (2)

ariel hernandez (2; unclear when he was optioned by the dodgers, but he has spent at least 10 days optioned between both clubs)

adrian houser (1; optioned 11 august)

dan jennings (0)

jeremy jeffress (0)

corey knebel (1)

jordan lyles (0)

joakim soria (0; on disabled list)

jake thompson (2; optioned 2 august by the phillies; he has spent at least 10 days optioned between both clubs)

taylor williams (2)

 

thus, the only relievers who are eligible to be recalled to replace a non-injured player in the coming week or so are hernandez and thompson.

Agreed. With the trade of Lyles and Soria, the flexibility took a hit. However, Kneble and Williams can both be optioned, although that is unlikely. BTW, you are missing Wilkerson from your list. He is in the same boat as Barnes though. Optioned on the same day.

 

They can also bring up QTC, N.Ramirez, or Derby. They need to clear a 40 man spot, but Hernandez, Thompson, or Wilkerson are all on the bubble.

[djoctagone]

both matt albers and joakim soria expected to be activated later this week, perhaps as soon as friday.

 

assuming that spots are made by optioning teammates to colorado springs, those players could spend the requisite 10 days optioned through the end of colorado springs' regular season, and then be recalled in september.

 

currently a seven man bullpen. candidates for optioning are:

 

orlando arcia

keon broxton

corbin burnes (who would not burn his third option if promptly recalled)

josh hader (not happening)

corey knebel (who would not burn his final option if promptly recalled)

jonathan schoop (may have enough service time to refuse the assignment)

taylor williams (who would not burn his second option if promptly recalled)

 

you also have to factor in the potential return of zach davies, whom i'm expecting the club to option after his rehab start today for biloxi. like the aforementioned players, davies would not burn his second option if promptly recalled in september.

[djoctagone]

for the time being, back to an eight man bullpen. matt albers activated, keon broxton optioned.

 

a pitcher will most certainly be sent down when joakim soria is activated.

[MrTPlush]

for the time being, back to an eight man bullpen. matt albers activated, keon broxton optioned.

 

a pitcher will most certainly be sent down when joakim soria is activated.

 

I swear I posted this (maybe the wrong forum), but my guesses were Broxton and Burnes. With September almost here it makes sense to send down the guys you least need because options won't play a factor.

 

Broxton - Obvious

 

Burnes - Less obvious, but I predict he gets burned for a huge chunk of innings at some point right before Soria can come back. We wouldn't use Burnes for 4-5 days anyway at that point and if Soria comes back this weekend it is pretty much no loss not having Burnes till September.

[tmwiese55]

If Burnes or someone else doesn't have to eat a multi inning spot think there's any chance Knebel is the one down for Soria? According to the OP here he has an option and this wouldn't burn his last one. Let him get 2-3 outing in the minors and hopefully get right for September

[MrTPlush]

If Burnes or someone else doesn't have to eat a multi inning spot think there's any chance Knebel is the one down for Soria? According to the OP here he has an option and this wouldn't burn his last one. Let him get 2-3 outing in the minors and hopefully get right for September

 

I guess that is possible too. If some is burned up for days anyway whoever is going to help you least is going to go. Of course they need an option to send down even if we won't end up using the option in the end because of September.

[FVBrewerFan]

My guess, Broxton down, the other spot opened up by a 10 day DL stint for somebody.

 

Or, Peralta makes perfect sense with all the off days coming up. They could go with 4 man rotation pretty much as long as they want.

[tmwiese55]

Broxton is down today for Albers. Good guess on Peralta though, especially if he's shaky again today. Off days tomorrow and Monday to easily skip him until Sept 1.

[djoctagone]

If Burnes or someone else doesn't have to eat a multi inning spot think there's any chance Knebel is the one down for Soria? According to the OP here he has an option and this wouldn't burn his last one. Let him get 2-3 outing in the minors and hopefully get right for September

i'm really hoping they option knebel. starting tomorrow, the sky sox have eight road games in seven days.

[shanedog19]

Curious to see if Quintin Torres-Costa gets called up in Sept. His numbers have been dominant at both AA and AAA this year, plus we could use another lefty out of the pen. Could be an interesting addition for us.

[MrTPlush]

Curious to see if Quintin Torres-Costa gets called up in Sept. His numbers have been dominant at both AA and AAA this year, plus we could use another lefty out of the pen. Could be an interesting addition for us.

 

They will definitely add some guys to mop up the meaningless innings when we are down big. I would like to see him get the opportunity personally.

[djoctagone]

corey knebel optioned yesterday; he must spend at least 10 days optioned. joakim soria activated by the brewers. still an eight-man bullpen.

[NYChez]

After this morning’s marathon, Counsell said no roster moves are expected to address bullpen depth. Part of the thinking is likely that Anderson and Guerra are likely available in long relief in an emergency.

[MrTPlush]

After this morning’s marathon, Counsell said no roster moves are expected to address bullpen depth. Part of the thinking is likely that Anderson and Guerra are likely available in long relief in an emergency.

 

With a lead I’d think something aggressive in nature like this is likely.

[djoctagone]

After this morning’s marathon, Counsell said no roster moves are expected to address bullpen depth. Part of the thinking is likely that Anderson and Guerra are likely available in long relief in an emergency.

wow. burnes threw 40 pitches. jordan lyles threw 35. that's really showing a strong commitment to corbin burnes. the club wouldn't burn his option if he was recalled within 19 days of being optioned (easily achieved with september roster expansion).

 

heck, even taylor williams could be optioned. i know there are just two more games until an off day, but for a club that has often used the colorado springs shuttle, this is surprising. i hope it doesn't come back to bite them.

[MrTPlush]

Problem is you have to keep them down for 10 days. That would be a very unwise decision with no one really worthwhile in the minors. Even if you can do it September 1st...still way too many days to be out those guys. The Pirates burned their pen too, which helps.

[young guns]

I guess jennings albers and Williams didn't pitch much. Soria only an inning however coming off the injury I dont know if that makes him unavailable. However I you have to assume all of Hader, jeffress, burnes and lyles are unavailable. Could be an interesting night,