Alex Cobb (Part 2)

[Boomer5]

Until these 3 pitchers have signed, the offseason isn't really over, it's just delayed.

[brewcrewdue80]

We'd lose our 4th round pick somewhere in the 100s. Don't care on the pick the team gets. It's not a 1st round guy so it's not a major likely future All Star.

[KeithStone53151]

We'd lose our 4th round pick somewhere in the 100s. Don't care on the pick the team gets. It's not a 1st round guy so it's not a major likely future All Star.

 

Corbin Burnes was a 4th round pick...just saying.

[IntentionalHBP]

We'd lose our 4th round pick somewhere in the 100s. Don't care on the pick the team gets. It's not a 1st round guy so it's not a major likely future All Star.

 

Corbin Burnes was a 4th round pick...just saying.

Most of the time the fourth round pick doesn’t pan out though. I would prefer the guaranteed talent than the fourth round lottery ticket.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

We'd lose our 4th round pick somewhere in the 100s. Don't care on the pick the team gets. It's not a 1st round guy so it's not a major likely future All Star.

It’s not so much losing the 4th round pick, it’s losing the money tied to the pick. The difference in keeping that pick/money vs not could be the difference between being able to afford a over slot better player early on vs just taking a guy we know will sign for slot or under slot.

[bill hAll Star]

We'd lose our 4th round pick somewhere in the 100s. Don't care on the pick the team gets. It's not a 1st round guy so it's not a major likely future All Star.

 

Corbin Burnes was a 4th round pick...just saying.

 

As an extreme example, Tom Brady was a 6th round pick. In football, I would give a 6th round pick for a good player. I wouldn't give up 25-year-old Tom Brady for the same player.

 

I don't want to give up Corbin Burnes even for Archer. I don't necessarily mind giving up a 4th in a signing.

 

I would not make a habit out of giving up draft picks...but here's the thing: If we sign Alex Cobb and give up the pick, I'd be shocked if we sign more than one more pick-attached player in the next 3 or 4 years. Probably 0 of them.

[DR28]

Agreed, this is the offseason to sign a good SP.

 

Because in the coming offseasons we wont even be in the ballpark of considerable offers.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think the burnes hype needs to be tempered alot. He's basically where woodruff was at this point last spring in his development, and somehow many on the board view woodruff as a #4-5 sp talent while also viewing burnes as a TOR untradeable unicorn.

 

I have high hopes for him, but let's see what burnes does at advanced milb levels against competition he's no longer more polished than by being a collegiate draftee. I'm rooting for him, but am also realistic that the aura of burnes being a prospect who hasn't scuffled yet probably makes him appear much better than what he will be at the MLB level. There's a reason he was a 4th round pick out of college, too.

[MrTPlush]

I just went back and checked. I could not find a single 4th round pick we drafted that had 1 WAR in their entire career. Most never hit the majors or had a negative career WAR. I stopped when I got to another century.

 

The bonus pool money is also painfully overrated, especially for the fourth round. That is a grand $450k. If you go hugely underslot there that should give you a staggering $100k-$200k to throw around. That is not going to help you get much. Probably another 4th round talent later on that will also do nothing.

[MrTPlush]

Because in the coming offseasons we wont even be in the ballpark of considerable offers.

 

Mostly because we will have effectively maxed out the payroll at that point.

[DR28]

I think the burnes hype needs to be tempered alot. He's basically where woodruff was at this point last spring in his development, and somehow many on the board view woodruff as a #4-5 sp talent while also viewing burnes as a TOR untradeable unicorn.

 

I have high hopes for him, but let's see what burnes does at advanced milb levels against competition he's no longer more polished than by being a collegiate draftee. I'm rooting for him, but am also realistic that the aura of burnes being a prospect who hasn't scuffled yet probably makes him appear much better than what he will be at the MLB level. There's a reason he was a 4th round pick out of college, too.

 

Same line of thinking goes for Guerra as well... For the people wanting to put Guerra in our rotation, there's a reason why Junior didnt make his MLB debut until he turned 30.

 

Cobb needs to be added to our rotation.

[DR28]

Because in the coming offseasons we wont even be in the ballpark of considerable offers.

 

Mostly because we will have effectively maxed out the payroll at that point.

 

True but still we wont be able to complete with Dodgers, Nats, Yankees, etc spending limits looking to add a top SP.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I think the burnes hype needs to be tempered alot. He's basically where woodruff was at this point last spring in his development, and somehow many on the board view woodruff as a #4-5 sp talent while also viewing burnes as a TOR untradeable unicorn.

 

I have high hopes for him, but let's see what burnes does at advanced milb levels against competition he's no longer more polished than by being a collegiate draftee. I'm rooting for him, but am also realistic that the aura of burnes being a prospect who hasn't scuffled yet probably makes him appear much better than what he will be at the MLB level. There's a reason he was a 4th round pick out of college, too.

 

I disagree with your assessment on Burnes. "The Dude Can Flat Out Pitch"

 

I agree with this write up from Dynasty Guru:

 

Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers, (Age: 23, Previous Rank: NR)

 

Drafted in the 4th round of the 2016 draft by the Brewers, Burnes has flown onto the radar post draft. Burnes postted an impressive first line in pro ball of a 2.02 ERA 1.15 WHIP, .185 BAA and 41 strikeouts in 35.2 innings, giving up just one home run. He then followed that up with an even more impressive 1.76 ERA, 0.95 WHIP .200 BAA and 140 strikeouts in 145.2 innings between High-A and Double-A . The dude can flat out pitch. He pounds the zone and shows an ability to command his entire arsenal. He’s a guy to get now, before his stock rises higher.

 

https://thedynastyguru.com/2018/02/26/dynasty-gurus-top-200-starting-pitchers-121-160/

 

I think the Brewers found their first ever 4th round GEM, even if he's not a Top of the Rotation unicorn!

[KeithStone53151]

We'd lose our 4th round pick somewhere in the 100s. Don't care on the pick the team gets. It's not a 1st round guy so it's not a major likely future All Star.

 

Corbin Burnes was a 4th round pick...just saying.

 

As an extreme example, Tom Brady was a 6th round pick. In football, I would give a 6th round pick for a good player. I wouldn't give up 25-year-old Tom Brady for the same player.

 

I don't want to give up Corbin Burnes even for Archer. I don't necessarily mind giving up a 4th in a signing.

 

I would not make a habit out of giving up draft picks...but here's the thing: If we sign Alex Cobb and give up the pick, I'd be shocked if we sign more than one more pick-attached player in the next 3 or 4 years. Probably 0 of them.

 

I wasn't trying to imply that we dare not sign Cobb because that 4th round pick is the next Corbin Burnes and we'll miss him if we get Cobb. I don't think a 4th round pick is going to stop us from making that move, I was just pointing out that the pick shouldn't be viewed as relatively meaningless...which was the vibe I got.

 

And a 4th round pick in the MLB draft is far and away more valuable than a 6th round pick in the NFL draft. It's honestly very difficult to make any sort of comparisons between drafts as NFL versus MLB is so wildly different.

[mrn1ceguy]

I think the burnes hype needs to be tempered alot. He's basically where woodruff was at this point last spring in his development, and somehow many on the board view woodruff as a #4-5 sp talent while also viewing burnes as a TOR untradeable unicorn.

 

I have high hopes for him, but let's see what burnes does at advanced milb levels against competition he's no longer more polished than by being a collegiate draftee. I'm rooting for him, but am also realistic that the aura of burnes being a prospect who hasn't scuffled yet probably makes him appear much better than what he will be at the MLB level. There's a reason he was a 4th round pick out of college, too.

 

I keep seeing people dismiss Burnes accomplishments because hes an advanced college pitcher so he should be able to dominate people in A+ and even AA. Have we ever seeing an advanced college pitcher dominate people in A+ and AA before? Nelson didn't. He was good in A+ (2.21 ERA) but struggle mightily in AA with a near 5 ERA). Manny Parra had a good A- but took awhile to post top milb stats. Jungman didn't dominate anyone in the minors until he was much older. It's just not something we can assume Brewer pitchers to do ever, so when it happens it shouldn't be dismissed because he was drafted as an advanced college pitcher.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'm not dismissing burnes at all, I just think people need not assume based on 1.5 minor league seasons where he barely pitched above class A that he's a perennial all star pitcher. As burnes progresses towards mlb, I wouldn't be shocked to see his numbers drift more towards that of a mid rotation starter - still incredibly valuable but not max scherzer...

 

Sheets was pretty much the last college pitcher draftee to dominate minor league levels right away...oh, and woodruff. Sheets was a TOR talent, which was why he went high in the 1st round the year he was drafted.

[TJseven7]

With all due respect to woodruff his milb numbers aren't close to burnes.

 

The cobb sub 50 stuff only makes sense if all the teams want to stick it to tb for some reason. Just offer 64/4 and get him here.

[Brewersfanatic2882]

The reason Burnes was drafted in the 4th round was nothing to do with his stuff or talent. He had 1st/2nd round but scouts were worried aboout his delivery and if it would lead to struggle with comand and that he might not be able to stick as a starter because of it. He's obviously proved everyone that passed on him wrong. Albert Pujols was drafted in the 13th round so just because he was drafted in the fourth doesn't mean he's not a great pitcher. Anyone can succeed in the game with the right work ethic and right coaching.

[NOMAAM]

Read on mlb trade rumors Philly doesn't want to go beyond 3 yrs on any SP and the Chatwood deal was to high for Lynn or Cobb for them. Would link but crappy phone.

[bill hAll Star]

Corbin Burnes was a 4th round pick...just saying.

 

As an extreme example, Tom Brady was a 6th round pick. In football, I would give a 6th round pick for a good player. I wouldn't give up 25-year-old Tom Brady for the same player.

 

I don't want to give up Corbin Burnes even for Archer. I don't necessarily mind giving up a 4th in a signing.

 

I would not make a habit out of giving up draft picks...but here's the thing: If we sign Alex Cobb and give up the pick, I'd be shocked if we sign more than one more pick-attached player in the next 3 or 4 years. Probably 0 of them.

 

I wasn't trying to imply that we dare not sign Cobb because that 4th round pick is the next Corbin Burnes and we'll miss him if we get Cobb. I don't think a 4th round pick is going to stop us from making that move, I was just pointing out that the pick shouldn't be viewed as relatively meaningless...which was the vibe I got.

 

And a 4th round pick in the MLB draft is far and away more valuable than a 6th round pick in the NFL draft. It's honestly very difficult to make any sort of comparisons between drafts as NFL versus MLB is so wildly different.

 

I was making that as an extreme example, of course. Plug in any analog.

 

Is the 4th round of the MLB draft more important? It's gotta be close. I'm picking random drafts from 5-10 years ago and while I'm sure there have been random studs in the 4th round over the years, I'm finding on average 1 or 2 decent MLB players like Sam Dyson (2010) and in the more recent drafts, some OK prospects that are still sitting in AA/AAA like Patrick Kivlehan (2012). Eddie Rosario is the best player I've seen while picking 3 or 4 random years in a range of guys that would be early MLB vets now.

 

I'd say 6th round NFL and 4th round MLB values are pretty close in terms of pro impact, not to derail this convo too far.

 

EDIT: Just hit 2007 that has some good MLB players. Arrieta and Cishek/Michael Taylor/Rypziecoasijfsahiski. That's about the best I've seen.

 

I'd say probably an average of 1 good player and 1-2 OK MLB players come out of the MLB 4th round and that wouldn't be far off from an NFL average.

[sveumrules]

The Burnes/Woodruff comparison is an interesting one. Their stats from their breakout seasons are remarkably similar with Burnes being younger & having the shinier ERA while Woodruff had the edge in the strikeout department.

 

Woodruff (Age 23)

 

A+: 44.1 IP 1.83 ERA 2.51 FIP 9.9 K/9 2.0 BB/9 0.4 HR/9

AA: 113.2 IP 3.01 ERA 2.49 FIP 9.8 K/9 2.4 BB/9 0.3 HR/9

Total: 158 IP 2.68 ERA 2.49 FIP 9.9 K/9 2.3 BB/9 0.3 HR/9

 

Burnes (Age 22)

 

A+: 60 IP 1.05 ERA 2.23 FIP 8.4 K/9 2.4 BB/9 0.2 HR/9

AA: 85.2 IP 2.10 ERA 2.65 FIP 8.8 K/9 2.1 BB/9 0.2 HR/9

Total: 145.2 IP 1.85 ERA 2.48 FIP 8.6 K/9 2.2 BB/9 0.2 HR/9

 

I'd be counting on Woodruff to fill a rotation spot all season with Burnes being the first man up when needed during the season.

 

Would also be fine with Cobb around 3/50 if he ever decides to sign.

[brewtank34]

With more and more pitchers getting injured during ST, my fear is that the Crew will end up losing out on these pitchers such as Cobb, Archer, Arrieta due to new teams jumping into the mix out of desperation. Get something donbefore this happens!e

[CheezWizHed]

I saw a snapchat of someone's facebook page where they twittered that Cobb has a 110% chance of signing with the Brewers today... unless he doesn't. This came from a verified human.

[bill hAll Star]

The Burnes/Woodruff comparison is an interesting one. Their stats from their breakout seasons are remarkably similar with Burnes being younger & having the shinier ERA while Woodruff had the edge in the strikeout department.

 

Woodruff (Age 23)

 

A+: 44.1 IP 1.83 ERA 2.51 FIP 9.9 K/9 2.0 BB/9 0.4 HR/9

AA: 113.2 IP 3.01 ERA 2.49 FIP 9.8 K/9 2.4 BB/9 0.3 HR/9

Total: 158 IP 2.68 ERA 2.49 FIP 9.9 K/9 2.3 BB/9 0.3 HR/9

 

Burnes (Age 22)

 

A+: 60 IP 1.05 ERA 2.23 FIP 8.4 K/9 2.4 BB/9 0.2 HR/9

AA: 85.2 IP 2.10 ERA 2.65 FIP 8.8 K/9 2.1 BB/9 0.2 HR/9

Total: 145.2 IP 1.85 ERA 2.48 FIP 8.6 K/9 2.2 BB/9 0.2 HR/9

 

I'd be counting on Woodruff to fill a rotation spot all season with Burnes being the first man up when needed during the season.

 

Would also be fine with Cobb around 3/50 if he ever decides to sign.

 

The crazy thing is that if you throw in Cobb and Archer, their age 22 seasons were about the same, and those guys came out of high school. Archer had crazy walk problems but we knew he had the highest ceiling, and for now, he's got the best stuff...but that's why you value guys like Woodruff and Burnes. You can overpay someone like Cobb to be yet another stable rotation arm on top of it all with the expectation of young/cheap pitching.

[Fear The Chorizo]

He's obviously proved everyone that passed on him wrong. Albert Pujols was drafted in the 13th round so just because he was drafted in the fourth doesn't mean he's not a great pitcher

 

This statement just totally makes my point re: Burnes...he has yet to log a MLB inning and his minor league performance to date is being utilized to group him in with 1st ballot HOFers who also happened to be drafted a bit lower.

 

I'm as excited as the next person to see if Burnes can be really good at the major league level. But let him get there first and get some perspective! There are 10x more players drafted in the mid-late rounds who set the minor league world on fire only to be average or worse at the MLB level. It's not about his fantastic performance to date proving teams that passed on him 2-3 times wrong - hell, the Brewers passed on him multiple times before drafting Burnes, too.

 

With all due respect to woodruff his milb numbers aren't close to burnes.

 

as an earlier post pointed out, they actually are based on similar minor league levels - Woodruff went through the same levels Burnes did one year older.