2019-04-21: Dodgers (Kershaw) at Brewers (Woodruff) [Brewers lose, 6-5 -- Thames 3-run HR in 8th ties it; Bellinger HR in the 9th proves the difference]

[adambr2]

That poor performance is not sustainable under the year to date level of play.

 

Can you explain what you mean by that? This sentence doesn't make any sense to me. There's no doubt they're fortunate to have the record they have with the performances all-around so far.

[folly412]

I really thought Jesus would come alive today. Really lost faith in him.

[Brew crew 92]

I can’t believe CC would pitch Guerra 3 days in a row. He’s only been a pen arm less than a year

[82brewcrew82]

This team doesn't like me enough to actually finish off this comeback.

[82brewcrew82]

This team doesn't like me enough to actually finish off this comeback.

Told ya.

[82brewcrew82]

I really thought Jesus would come alive today. Really lost faith in him.

That joke is just as amusing the third time in this thread as it was the first.

[BruisedCrew]

Ouch.

 

Second time in this series the Brewers botched a golden opportunity to get Yelich up as the tying run.

[pacopete4]

Not getting Yelich to the plate there sums up this game.

[sveumrules]

That poor performance is not sustainable under the year to date level of play.

 

Can you explain what you mean by that? This sentence doesn't make any sense to me. There's no doubt they're fortunate to have the record they have with the performances all-around so far.

 

Sure.

 

In 2016 the Brewers posted an ERA/FIP/xFIP of 4.10/4.37/4.42

In 2017 the Brewers posted an ERA/FIP/xFIP of 4.00/4.24/4.26

In 2018 the Brewers posted an ERA/FIP/xFIP of 3.73/4.01/4.04

 

So for three consecutive seasons under Stearns, with a varying collection of pitchers & defenders, the team managed to prevent less runs than their peripheral estimators would indicate, to the 3rd highest level in all of MLB. Maybe it was just luck, maybe it was all because of DJ, I don't know, but those are the numbers.

 

In 2019 the Brewers have posted an ERA/FIP/xFIP of 4.96/5.00/4.42

 

The main issue driving the poor ERA/FIP marks is our unsustainably high 1.76 HR9 mark, which is why the xFIP is much more respectable & a better indicator where the team will likely end up at the end of the year than ERA through 200 innings.

 

HR rate is extremely noisy through a sample this small. Our HR9 is the third worst in MLB at 132% of league average. Right now from top to bottom the HR9+ rankings go from 195 to 61. Over the last two seasons the HR9+ ranges have been 77-129 & 78-127, for comparison.

[pacopete4]

Barnes mows em down!

[Brew crew 92]

Barnes mows em down!

 

I’m not a Jacob Barnes fan, but he is pitching well since that first weekend series against the cards. I hope he can continue, it would be a big boost for this pen.

[stoutdude04]

Aguilar with a typical result. Frustrating.

[adambr2]

I'm just done with Aguilar. He is useless.

[BruisedCrew]

Aguilar swings at a 2-0 pitch out of the strike zone to kill the budding rally.

 

There is a point where you need some offense out of that position.

[pacopete4]

Uecker said on radio that the Braun hit put him in third place in our history.

[MoreTrife]

Does Aguilar have options?

[sveumrules]

That poor performance is not sustainable under the year to date level of play.

 

Can you explain what you mean by that? This sentence doesn't make any sense to me. There's no doubt they're fortunate to have the record they have with the performances all-around so far.

 

Sure.

 

In 2016 the Brewers posted an ERA/FIP/xFIP of 4.10/4.37/4.42

In 2017 the Brewers posted an ERA/FIP/xFIP of 4.00/4.24/4.26

In 2018 the Brewers posted an ERA/FIP/xFIP of 3.73/4.01/4.04

 

So for three consecutive seasons under Stearns, with a varying collection of pitchers & defenders, the team managed to prevent less runs than their peripheral estimators would indicate, to the 3rd highest level in all of MLB. Maybe it was just luck, maybe it was all because of DJ, I don't know, but those are the numbers.

 

In 2019 the Brewers have posted an ERA/FIP/xFIP of 4.96/5.00/4.42

 

The main issue driving the poor ERA/FIP marks is our unsustainably high 1.76 HR9 mark, which is why the xFIP is much more respectable & a better indicator where the team will likely end up at the end of the year than ERA through 200 innings.

 

HR rate is extremely noisy through a sample this small. Our HR9 is the third worst in MLB at 132% of league average. Right now from top to bottom the HR9+ rankings go from 195 to 61. Over the last two seasons the HR9+ ranges have been 77-129 & 78-127, for comparison.

 

To build it out a little further here is an article from last year where Jeff Sullivan investigated which is the best indicator of 2nd half results out of 1st half results, 1st half pythagorean results or the projections.

 

The projections won in a landslide & we're currently dealing with a sample about 1/3rd the size of 1st half results/1st half pythagorean results at this point.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-best-to-predict-the-seasons-second-half/

[adambr2]

Good info and definitely gives reason for hope. Thanks.

[Brew crew 92]

If Shaw Aguilar hitting this year we might be undefeated.

[BruisedCrew]

Uecker said on radio that the Braun hit put him in third place in our history.

 

And that’s as high as he will ever get.

[folly412]

THAMES!

[sveumrules]

Well, this one's over.

 

Eric Thames begs to differ.

[homer]

That was nice.

[Harold Hutchison]

Thames does it again...

 

Maybe he takes first for a bit, and Jesus just plays against lefties... platooning has long been a strategy of baseball.

[BruisedCrew]

Now who pitches the ninth?