Packers 2022 Discussion Thread

[DR28]

According to  Pat McAfee, Aaron is meeting with Packers today and tomorrow for lengthy meetings.

[thebruce44]

16 hours ago, LouisEly said:

What coach has done well without a good QB other than Billick and the 2000 Ravens? 

Well, of course this depends on what you mean by "good". The poster you responded to said average, so that seems to quantify a bit.

 

Looking at the list of Super Bowl QBs from 2000 on, I'd offer:

2019 - Garoppolo

2018 - Goff

2017 - Foles

2012 - Flacco

2011- Eli

2007 - Eli

2006 - Grossman (lol)

2003 - Jake Delhomme

2002 - Brad Johnson

2000 - Dilfer

[MrTPlush]

As far as a Rodgers trade, I don't know that is really an option. Not for money reasons, but I don't actually know that Aaron Rodgers would be even interested in that. Some of his comments after the season make me think it is a GB return or retirement. Correcting reporters saying, "Well it isn't just what I want, they would have to want me back too." gives me the vibe he probably isn't going to seek out a trade. If the Packers said they wanted him to hit the road, I think he would just pick retirement over trying to do a trade.

If Aaron Rodger's ego is as big as some make it, he probably doesn't want to get traded for a 2nd round draft pick. 

[CheezWizHed]

FYI, Spotrac.com makes it really easy to see cap impacts for cutting players. Then once you've pulled up Aaron's contract, hit the little red "x" on the right side of the year of interest.  Here you can see that trading Rodgers before 6/1 means we have  -$8.7M savings (i.e. negative savings meaning costing us more) than if we were simply to play for us.  More, yes, but not unmanageable (probably need someone else to go also).  

There have been lots of numbers thrown around about cap hit, and often it has been wrong... hope this helps. 

Basically, the only real option off the table is if he is released... which amounts to a $68M cap hit. 

[CheezWizHed]

Unfortunately, they don't specify the retirement cap hit, but I think it was on par with a trade (reading somewhere else, sometime else...don't have link now). 

[CheezWizHed]

32 minutes ago, thebruce44 said:

Well, of course this depends on what you mean by "good". The poster you responded to said average, so that seems to quantify a bit.

 

Looking at the list of Super Bowl QBs from 2000 on, I'd offer:

2019 - Garoppolo

2018 - Goff

2017 - Foles

2012 - Flacco

2011- Eli

2007 - Eli

2006 - Grossman (lol)

2003 - Jake Delhomme

2002 - Brad Johnson

2000 - Dilfer

A couple years back, I did a pretty detailed analysis of QBs that won the SB (back to 2000).  The elevator summary is this: Super Bowls are won 70-75% of the time by HOF level QBs (no, I don't think Eli is HOF level, but he most likely will get in). The QBs that lose the SB are about 50% of the time HOF level QBs.   

Nearly all the QBs that won the SB that wasn't HOF level, the team defense was top 5 (and often #1).  I think Foles and the Eagles might be the only exception, but he played lights out in the playoffs and wasn't the reason they got there.  So a bit of anomaly there. 

[nate82]

Just now, CheezWizHed said:

Unfortunately, they don't specify the retirement cap hit, but I think it was on par with a trade (reading somewhere else, sometime else...don't have link now). 

No retirement is the same as if the player is released. 

https://russellstreetreport.com/salarycap/nfl-salary-cap-faqs/

It is the signing bonus that is the problem for the Packers which is $59m I believe.  That $59m becomes his cap hit if he retires but if he retires after the signing bonus is paid out then the cap hit is far lower because it is now being calculated based on the non prorated bonus. 

I don't think the Sportrac calculation for a trade is working correctly or it is using the post 6/1 figures as Rodgers has about $31m in prorated salary which you would have to add into the trade for the Packers for a pre 6/1 trade.

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

No retirement is the same as if the player is released. 

https://russellstreetreport.com/salarycap/nfl-salary-cap-faqs/

It is the signing bonus that is the problem for the Packers which is $59m I believe.  That $59m becomes his cap hit if he retires but if he retires after the signing bonus is paid out then the cap hit is far lower because it is now being calculated based on the non prorated bonus. 

I don't think the Sportrac calculation for a trade is working correctly or it is using the post 6/1 figures as Rodgers has about $31m in prorated salary which you would have to add into the trade for the Packers for a pre 6/1 trade.

Not being a salary cap expert (nor even playing one on TV...), I tend to defer to spotrac because they seem to have it right more often than other sources.... 

From what I've read and understand, this wasn't a simple contract with a big signing bonus and small salaries.  It had a bonus, but also has yearly options.  The options are guaranteed, so you cut him, all of that accelerates to the cap now.  Hence the big $68M cap hit.  If he retires, he forfeits the future options, so the hit isn't as big.  Same if he is traded, someone else pays those options.  I've not tried to make the numbers work perfectly, but that is how I understand why spotrac is listing it that way. 

Edit - Spotrac does explain it: 

Quote

 

• $101.515M guaranteed at signing (2022 salary, 2022 roster bonus, 2023 salary, 2023 option bonus)
• 2023 Option Bonus: $58.3M (guaranteed, must be exercised between March 17, 2023 - Week 1)
• Declining either of the 2023-2024 options converts the base salary for that year into the bonus figure ($58.3M, $47M respectively)

 

So if he is cut, the 2023 option becomes a $58.3M cap hit.

And I surmise that if he retires, he doesn't get the option paid out. If he is traded, the other team pays the option.

[LouisEly]

4 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

Sorry wrong QB. Super Bowl XXXVII Buccaneers vs. Raiders. Brad Johnson and Rich Gannon, former Vikings QBs. Nuff said, lol.

Brad Johnson was still playing in the league at age 40.  He had a career year the year the Bucs won the Super Bowl (22 TD to 6 INT, and that Bucs defense was also one of the 10 best in the history of the NFL), but an average QB doesn't play 15 years in the league.

The bigger point is that 2002 Tampa defense was a top-10 defense in the history of the league.

[homer]

Jets fired Mike LaFleur. Assuming he will be on the staff next year 

[Sixtolezcano]

On 1/10/2023 at 6:01 PM, LouisEly said:

Brad Johnson was still playing in the league at age 40.  He had a career year the year the Bucs won the Super Bowl (22 TD to 6 INT, and that Bucs defense was also one of the 10 best in the history of the NFL), but an average QB doesn't play 15 years in the league.

The bigger point is that 2002 Tampa defense was a top-10 defense in the history of the league.

He is an average journeyman quarterback at best based up those stats. And those stats are his best with only 7 of 17 seasons starting 10 games or more.

[adambr2]

13 hours ago, homer said:

Jets fired Mike LaFleur. Assuming he will be on the staff next year 

I hope not. MLF continuing to bring in known associates has not really been a positive thing. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

On 1/12/2023 at 4:04 AM, adambr2 said:

I hope not. MLF continuing to bring in known associates has not really been a positive thing. 

I know they are brothers, but they have never really worked together on the same staff. Mike was considered an innovative offensive mind with the 49ers, but tough luck and a bad QB hand hurt him with the Jets. He wouldn't be a bad guy to bring in, especially if Love is going to get the keys to the offense in 2023.

[patrickgpe]

On 1/11/2023 at 3:01 PM, homer said:

Jets fired Mike LaFleur. Assuming he will be on the staff next year 

it won't be as an OC I think. Their offense looked good under White. Maybe it was just a Wilson issue. 

[adambr2]

[homer]

Oh

 

[GAME05]

Ugh, that just makes me want everyone else fired, too. Are they valuing continuity above performance? Defense only got better once he was forced to change everything, so his defensive genius is in being able to do what he's told and let the head coach make the adjustments for him?

Lot of good folks out there qualified to be the DC. What does Joe Barry have that they don't? Incriminating photos?

[MrTPlush]

I can understand keeping most around because they want Rodgers back...but I would like to think we could punt the DC and Rodgers wouldn't care one bit. 

Actually, you'd think after how his career has gone with poor defenses he would want Joe punted into orbit. 

[CheezWizHed]

I'm sure Jaire will be thrilled...

[SeaBass]

That's right, LaFleur, keep the lightning rod around and maybe most people will keep the criticism off yourself. This guy's no dummy.

[SeaBass]

I hate how this team is positioned at QB. They were cornered into keeping Love off the field down the stretch last season and now they've got a hard decision if the franchise yo-yo comes back. You look around the league at back-up QBs drafted in later rounds having success replacing injured starters, some as rookies, some as the literal last pick in the draft, and it's really going to suck if they deal away Love and watch him have success somewhere else.

I think it's an extreme long shot but I want them to ditch Rodgers and go with Love next season. Let's find out what they have before it's too late. It might already be too late.

[CheezWizHed]

I'm convinced that dumping Rodgers is the best direction for us.  Not because I think Love will be better than Rodgers during the 23-24 season (though possible), but because I don't think we can surround Rodgers with a SB level team...with his contract anchor around our necks and his desire to bring back all his middle-ling cronies.  We can't upgrade the roster and keep him happy at one time.

Now, if he renegotiates his contract to lower his upcoming bonus... that might change my mind.

[GAME05]

I'm really hoping Rodgers gets traded to the Jets and then the year after replaces Cousins in Minnesota. That'd be hilarious.

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, GAME05 said:

I'm really hoping Rodgers gets traded to the Jets and then the year after replaces Cousins in Minnesota. That'd be hilarious.

Certainly that would guarantee that Love is a HOF QB with one SB win, right?

[Fear The Chorizo]

Honestly, at this stage I don't know if it's Rodgers' 2023 cap hit that is the biggest hurdle this roster would have with being competitive next season - I think it's his insistence on keeping a handful of his veteran buddies around that are more than long in the tooth.  

I may get ill if I see Cobb, Mercedes, Crosby, Bakh, etc all kept around to appease a guy who needs more talent on the offensive side of the ball around to get back to being an elite quarterback.

I've defended Rodgers more than most in this forum at times during the past few years, as I think it's still imperative for a team to do anything it can to keep a top 5 quarterback on their roster and happy in today's NFL - that approach rewarded them quality chances to win Super Bowls in the previous two seasons and got a late 30's quarterback back-to-back MVPs...but those teams coughed up their best chance to win titles both of those years in the playoffs, and the 2022 version of Rodgers looked a ton like the 2019 vintage - the one that justified the decision to draft his heir apparent in round 1 of the 2020 draft.

I'm convinced the best decision for the Packers longterm is to find a team to trade Rodgers to, even if they're in the NFC, then use the 2023 season to cleanse the roster of remaining cap problems, pick up Love's 5th year option and then give him all of 2023 and 2024 seasons to show what he can do on the field.  I had that same feeling after Favre blew the NFC title game against the Giants at Lambeau, which ultimately led to Rodgers getting his shot the next season.