2022 Brewers Offense

[brewmann04]

It’s nice to see Yeli and Hunter getting hot. It be nice to see the Good Offense match the Good Pitching. Still they need to find a bat to replace Lo Cain. 

[edfunderburk]

13 hours ago, brewmann04 said:

It’s nice to see Yeli and Hunter getting hot. It be nice to see the Good Offense match the Good Pitching. Still they need to find a bat to replace Lo Cain. 

Is David Dahl worthy of an opportunity?

LoCain is otherworldly defensively - even at 36

How capable is Dahl as a potential CF option?

I’m still hopeful that Tyrone Taylor will warm up offensively too

[monty57]

It's still early, but Fangraphs has Cain sitting around -0.1 WAR, so that would be around -0.7 or so WAR for the season if he keeps playing the way he has. Pre-season projections had him pegged for around 1.1-1.3 WAR, mostly coming from defensive value, so there's hope that he can improve.

He's had a long career and will get a little more "leash" than you'd give a guy with less tenure to see if he can turn things around, but I'd guess that the Brewers are doing some homework to decide what "plan B" is if Cain continues to struggle.

Taylor is the obvious short-term solution. He's already on the team, he has a good chance to outperform Cain going forward, and we need to see what he can do so we'll know if he can be relied on in the future. I'd start giving him the majority of the starts soon, with Cain as the backup (the Brewers give their 4th OF plenty of playing time). If neither one heats up, then a move will probably be made around trade deadline to bring in (or call up) a new starting CF.

[KeithStone53151]

2 hours ago, monty57 said:

He's had a long career and will get a little more "leash" than you'd give a guy with less tenure to see if he can turn things around, but I'd guess that the Brewers are doing some homework to decide what "plan B" is if Cain continues to struggle.

Cain looks finished to me, and it isn't even July/August yet where he'll have 4 different minor leg injuries he's nursing. I would be very surprised if the Brewers didn't have at least 10 different variations/plans to improve at CF at points this year with the most likely being a deadline trade for a pretty wide variety of options. If we go the trade route which I'm expecting, there will be no rentals available that are really an upgrade from Cain...so most likely it'll be a trade for a guy with 2-3 years of team control and will probably be a bit expensive depending on the target.

I have enough faith in every other spot on the field that I don't think we NEED to do anything, though depending on the price of rentals we certainly could add at 4 or 5 other positions and improve the roster in the short term.

[brewmann04]

Cain at this point is your Defense Replacement player 

[igor67]

Even with the Yelich resurgence I see all the OF talent at AA and I'd really love to be able to bring some of those guys up in the next couple of years and have cheap internal candidates as our pitching gets more and more expensive. So I'd rather not deal at a high price to fill the hole/ manage by reducing Cain's playing time and shifting over to Taylor. I'd be willing to, but I doubt a true blockbuster where we'd get a megatalent for a few years emerges, so I'd only be inclined towards a minor bench upgrade type deal with a much smaller farm impact.

[monty57]

Quick run-down of our CF prospects:

I was hoping Mitchell would tear it up in Biloxi this year, and might be pushing for a mid-season call-up, but right now he's got a line of .216/.322/.343/.665. Probably not ready for the show yet.

Sal Frelick was recently promoted and only has 26 AA ABs with a line of .192/.192/.231/.423. While he's got a shot to be "center fielder of the future," I highly doubt he's in the plans for a call up this year. 

I don't think anyone expects much from Ray anymore, and he's not proving his doubters wrong, with a line of .145/.185/.242/.427 in Nashville.

30-year old Johnathan Davis is posting a .318/.446/.341/.787 in AAA, but he has 222 MLB ABs over four seasons with a line of .171/.272/.248/.520. He was probably brought in for injury insurance, and isn't going to force Cain off the roster. 

 

It's early, and someone can get hot, but right now it's looking like a 2022 CF upgrade may have to come from outside of the organization.

I hope Taylor gets his shot at starting, and I hope he runs with it. That could be a nice bridge to guys like Mitchell and Frelick.

[KeithStone53151]

I know Wiemer is best suited for RF, but is he good enough in the outfield to play some CF at the MLB level? He certainly wouldn't be a stud out there, but he's had plenty of reps in the minors and it wouldn't be another Mark Kotsay situation I would assume. Wiemer is actually hitting...

[SRB]

Cain started bad last year too and picked up the pace in the second half. I think it's hard to displace him internally unless Taylor really starts hitting (which he is not right now) given how good Cain's defense still is.

I would love to bring in a clear upgrade like Ramon Laureano though. I also proposed Tyler Naquin in one of the trade rumors threads as a more offense-oriented upgrade.

[igor67]

Turang might be kind of interesting as a bridge when combined with more Taylor.

[nate82]

1 hour ago, igor67 said:

Turang might be kind of interesting as a bridge when combined with more Taylor.

I wouldn't be against moving Cain to the 5th OF spot with Turang and Taylor splitting time in CF along with Turang taking over Peterson's roster spot.  Should be enough playing time for Turang to rotate in CF, 2B and SS.  This would leave the Brewers short on 3B but I think Turang could handle that when Urias needs a day off.  Probably would be better than having Peterson playing there offensively.  

Then the Brewers could trade for someone like Bell or J.D. Martinez and have them platoon with McCutchen at DH and play the occasional 1B or LF.  

[Outlander]

Peterson had a rough start the first couple of weeks but has turned it around since then. He isn't an everyday player but is a nice utility guy that has an uncanny ability to get on base. Pitcher limit reduced to 13 on May 29th so will be another position player. If they are going to move on from Cain then do so, they don't need three CF on the roster.

[MVP2110]

2 hours ago, Outlander said:

Peterson had a rough start the first couple of weeks but has turned it around since then. He isn't an everyday player but is a nice utility guy that has an uncanny ability to get on base. Pitcher limit reduced to 13 on May 29th so will be another position player. If they are going to move on from Cain then do so, they don't need three CF on the roster.

Curt Hogg with a nice article today on Jace. It's absolutely crazy he is tied for the 3rd highest WAR on the team

[monty57]

On 5/12/2022 at 9:18 PM, nate82 said:

I wouldn't be against moving Cain to the 5th OF spot with Turang and Taylor splitting time in CF along with Turang taking over Peterson's roster spot.  Should be enough playing time for Turang to rotate in CF, 2B and SS.  This would leave the Brewers short on 3B but I think Turang could handle that when Urias needs a day off.  Probably would be better than having Peterson playing there offensively.  

Then the Brewers could trade for someone like Bell or J.D. Martinez and have them platoon with McCutchen at DH and play the occasional 1B or LF.  

Martinez is making $19.375M this year, and the Brewers started this season with a $132M payroll, which was nearly $10M higher than their previous record opening day payroll.

If the Red Sox trade Martinez, it will be for a combination of talent and salary relief. Since we wouldn't be able to provide much salary relief, we'd need to give up a lot of young talent in order to get the Red Sox to pay the salary. I'm not sure exactly how the tax works, but with Boston $11.8M over the tax threshold, and Martinez counting $22M towards the luxury tax, they'd may be more in favor of getting someone to take his salary rather than getting the extra talent.

Does anyone know if it "resets the clock" if they get below the luxury tax threshold mid-season, or is it based on opening day salary?

[torts]

So... When does Lo Cain stop getting regular at bats?  

[sveumrules]

41 minutes ago, torts said:

So... When does Lo Cain stop getting regular at bats?  

On the season LoCa has started 26 of 40 now & he just sat two games/three days.

He really only has played regularly when he started seven of eight games from 5/6 to 5/14, outside of that he hasn’t started more than two games in a row.

I think they’ve been doing a pretty good job of toeing the line between giving Lorenzo a chance to get it going & not overexposing him with TT giving him regular days off.

If Cain is still sitting around a 40 wRC+ in a couple two tree weeks I’d guess they start increasing Tyrone’s opportunities so he still has a couple months before the deadline to show what he’s got.

[Robocaller]

On 5/12/2022 at 2:47 PM, KeithStone53151 said:

I know Wiemer is best suited for RF, but is he good enough in the outfield to play some CF at the MLB level? He certainly wouldn't be a stud out there, but he's had plenty of reps in the minors and it wouldn't be another Mark Kotsay situation I would assume. Wiemer is actually hitting...

I think he's a good choice as a stopgap until Mitchell or Frelick get promoted (a half year or year after Wiemer).  If M&F weren't in the system, Mitchell would be getting a lot more time in CF.

[sveumrules]

With one fourth of the season in the books (on the servers?) here is how the Brewers offense & position player group have fared thus far…

wRC+: 107 (13th) WAR: 6.5 (9th) R/G: 4.78 (6th) DSR: +16 (4th) BsR: +3.9 (7th)

Ca: 91 wRC+ (11th) 1.0 WAR (6th)

1B: 136 wRC+ (9th) 0.9 WAR (9th)

2B: 104 wRC+ (9th) 0.5 WAR (13th)

3B: 81 wRC+ (25th) 0.3 WAR (22nd)

SS: 130 wRC+ (5th) 1.6 WAR (2nd)

LF: 100 wRC+ (14th) 0.4 WAR (16th)

CF: 66 wRC+ (23rd) 0.0 WAR (22nd)

RF: 127 wRC+ (9th) 1.0 WAR (9th)

DH: 110 wRC+ (11th) 0.3 WAR (5th)

[DuWayne Steurer]

Third base will improve as Urias takes up more of those at bats as the season wears on.

I'm not going to automatically say center field will improve, because none of us knows what's going to happen with Cain, Taylor, or a trade.  I *expect* center field to improve, but I'm holding off on definitively declaring it until something happens. 

Other than that, every position group is top-half or better, and we have a lot of groups in the top 10 (whaaaaaaat?).  

Niiiiiiice.

[torts]

16 hours ago, sveumrules said:

On the season LoCa has started 26 of 40 now & he just sat two games/three days.

He really only has played regularly when he started seven of eight games from 5/6 to 5/14, outside of that he hasn’t started more than two games in a row.

I think they’ve been doing a pretty good job of toeing the line between giving Lorenzo a chance to get it going & not overexposing him with TT giving him regular days off.

If Cain is still sitting around a 40 wRC+ in a couple two tree weeks I’d guess they start increasing Tyrone’s opportunities so he still has a couple months before the deadline to show what he’s got.

I guess I should have looked at the data/stats before letting the eyesoreat the plate drive me to post ? 

[JohnBriggs12]

Cain should be released based on his lack of production.  I think instead he'll be relegated to one or two starts per week.  He's offering nothing offensively.

[KeithStone53151]

3 hours ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

Cain should be released based on his lack of production.  I think instead he'll be relegated to one or two starts per week.  He's offering nothing offensively.

He has value on defense, I would be on board with letting him hold a roster spot as primarily a defensive replacement. We need 13 position players anyways. It gets interesting if we add an impact CF at the deadline though. At that point I don't know how we'd keep Mccutchen/Cain/Taylor all on the roster as backups.

For me, biggest surprise in those numbers is probably still 1b/DH. That's a big wrc+ number, tellez is truly having either a breakout season or the year of his life. Either way, it's great to see and we definitely needed the production. 3b is mostly that low because Urias is playing SS right now, once Adames is back that position is fine.

[markedman5]

 

[nate82]

3 hours ago, markedman5 said:

 

That is really good for the bottom of the order.

[BruisedCrew]

Now that the Brewers schedule has toughened up, their runs per game has slipped down to 4.50 which is slightly higher than the league average of 4.44, and lower than 5 of the other 7 teams that are considered serious playoff contenders. They are a fraction below the Phillies and ahead of the Padres and Braves.

The pitching has really carried the team the last two weeks since they left Cincinnati.