2022 Brewers Offense

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Nope, not even from a results perspective, unless you're going to try the runs per game argument which doesn't measure pitching but is rather a combination of pitching and defense. By every important metric that actually measures pitching quality (WAR, FIP, xFIP, K/9), the Brewers have the second best pitching staff in baseball behind the Yankees, while the Cardinals' pitching staff is mirred in the mid 20's. 

For the purposes of winning a game it doesn't really matter if you prevent runs because of great pitching or great defense does it? The only result that ultimately matters is runs right? 

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, timpep said:

For the purposes of winning a game it doesn't really matter if you prevent runs because of great pitching or great defense does it? The only result that ultimately matters is runs right? 

No, it doesn't matter. But the argument was made that the Cardinals pitching is equally good as the Brewers. It isn't. The reason why they are able to prevent runs at a similar rate because of their defense, not their pitching. That'll be my "last word" on the subject as this is the offense thread. 

[Jopal78]

15 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

No, it doesn't matter. But the argument was made that the Cardinals pitching is equally good as the Brewers. It isn't. The reason why they are able to prevent runs at a similar rate because of their defense, not their pitching. That'll be my "last word" on the subject as this is the offense thread. 

Fact is the Cardinals pitching staff has allowed 219 runs, and have scored 271 runs.

The Brewers pitching staff has allowed 224 runs, and have scored 249 runs. 

What the metrics say is really irrelevant, the Cardinals have scored more on offense than the Brewers, and their pitching staff has been better than Milwaukee in giving up runs. 

It also seems the same argument that the Brewers hitters will hit better, is also tied to a notion that the hitters for the Cardinals will falter at the same time which nobody really knows if either of these are true. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

53 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

It also seems the same argument that the Brewers hitters will hit better, is also tied to a notion that the hitters for the Cardinals will falter at the same time which nobody really knows if either of these are true. 

While you are technically correct in this assertion, I think that most have used projections as the basis for their argument that the Brewers offense has underperformed, while the Cardinals have overperformed. Yes, projections are certainly not ironclad, but a lot of info does go into producing them. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

Looking at St.Louis, one of the things I think is really significant is that they've had holes to fill due to injuries/lack of production and Yepez, Donovan, & Gorman have all come up for their first taste of big league pitching, and all three have been productive immediately. That's kinda ridiculous. Bet on some regression.

[BruisedCrew]

With the Braves and Phillies gaining traction, and the Brewers pitching strength taking some hits, the conversation has to shift from whether the Brewers offense is good enough to win the World Series to whether or not it’s good enough to make the playoffs. 
 

Midseason roster moves are going to play a big role. 

[NBBrewFan]

8 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

With the Braves and Phillies gaining traction, and the Brewers pitching strength taking some hits, the conversation has to shift from whether the Brewers offense is good enough to win the World Series to whether or not it’s good enough to make the playoffs. 
 

Midseason roster moves are going to play a big role. 

Don't expect a lot of roster moves that add salary.  Brewers attendance is down 5,000 a game from the same periods compared to 2018 and 2019 and it was down significantly last year.  Their revenue is taking a hit and I doubt they will choose to lose money by expanding the major league roster salary.  Maybe they will finally come through with their promise to spend to put them over the hump, but they really didn't do it last year and they didn't do it this offseason (the McCutcheon signing plus arbitration numbers are pretty neutral).

[BruisedCrew]

1 minute ago, NBBrewFan said:

Don't expect a lot of roster moves that add salary.  Brewers attendance is down 5,000 a game from the same periods compared to 2018 and 2019 and it was down significantly last year.  Their revenue is taking a hit and I doubt they will choose to lose money by expanding the major league roster salary.  Maybe they will finally come through with their promise to spend to put them over the hump, but they really didn't do it last year and they didn't do it this offseason (the McCutcheon signing plus arbitration numbers are pretty neutral).

I was referring to roster moves by other playoff contenders too. 
 

If the Brewers stand pat they might actually be moving backward and they don’t have much of a cushion.

[monty57]

48 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I was referring to roster moves by other playoff contenders too. 
 

If the Brewers stand pat they might actually be moving backward and they don’t have much of a cushion.

Attanasio and Stearns have a pretty long track record, and I think it shows that they will not stand pat. They may not have the ability to add a lot of money to payroll, but I will be surprised if they don't make a move or two.

MLB.com did an article on each team's top trade chip (https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/mlb-trade-candidates-for-each-team-in-2022). Trey Mancini ($7.5M), Benintendi ($8.5M), Josh Bell ($10M), David Peralta ($8M), or even former Brewers Garrett Cooper ($2.5M with another arby year) and Jesus Aguilar ($7.3M) are all options that wouldn't break the bank. I listed the full-season salary, so the Brewers would only be adding around half of that, along with whatever prospect(s) they'd need to send to make the deal happen.

[Jim French Stepstool]

Some will be upset that they didn't acquire the "right" player, or spent too much, or should GO FOR IT!!!!!!!! & empty out the top 10 prospect list. But they aren't standing pat. Anyone with worries that they are, relax.

[Robocaller]

On 6/8/2022 at 7:18 PM, timpep said:

For the purposes of winning a game it doesn't really matter if you prevent runs because of great pitching or great defense does it? The only result that ultimately matters is runs right? 

Great pitching is obviously more important. Unless "great defense" extends to stopping time and moving in space.

 

[Brewcrew82]

Jonathan Davis' AAA line after tonight's game .315/.431/.435.....Also, is as good of a defender at this point as Cain, if not better. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Jonathan Davis' AAA line after tonight's game .315/.431/.435.....Also, is as good of a defender at this point as Cain, if not better. 

Davis is 30 yr old and a career .171 hitter in the bigs. The fact that he's even being considered (if he indeed is) is more an indictment of how poor Cain has been than anything. Guys get that AAAA label & it's hard to shake, but if he indeed is as solid defensively as some on here say, then he has to be at least on the radar. I hate the tired old internet message board "He can't be any worse" line. This is one of the few times it has some merit.

[Opening Day]

12 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Davis is 30 yr old and a career .171 hitter in the bigs. The fact that he's even being considered (if he indeed is) is more an indictment of how poor Cain has been than anything. Guys get that AAAA label & it's hard to shake, but if he indeed is as solid defensively as some on here say, then he has to be at least on the radar. I hate the tired old internet message board "He can't be any worse" line. This is one of the few times it has some merit.

Not only "he cant be any worse" but his .171 career average in MlB would actually be a slight improvement over Cain.

[Jim French Stepstool]

10 minutes ago, Opening Day said:

Not only "he cant be any worse" but his .171 career average in MlB would actually be a slight improvement over Cain.

Yeah, like I said this idea has some merit based mainly on how poorly Lo is doing. If Davis is indeed a strong defender it's hard to argue against it at this point.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Yeah, like I said this idea has some merit based mainly on how poorly Lo is doing. If Davis is indeed a strong defender it's hard to argue against it at this point.

The reality is, Cain has already been moved to a bench player, and is still owed a guaranteed 12 million dollars. The Brewers are not likely to pay him that kind of money to sit home, just so they can bring up an organizational depth piece to take his spot on the bench. If Cain cannot get it going at the plate, they will need his roster spot at some point and he'll be gone,  but it won't be to bring up someone like Jonathan Davis. 

[Guest]

17 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Great pitching is obviously more important. Unless "great defense" extends to stopping time and moving in space.

 

I don't think anyone disagrees with that. I'll continue to believe that runs scored via error still count as much as those scored via home run though. Unless of course you know something I don't.

[Brewcrew82]

Cain and McCutchen have been twin whipping boys on here for some time now, and for good reason with how they've both produced so far. However, there is good reason to separate the two in our evaluations. Whereas all of Cain's underlying metrics have absolutely dovetailed to the bottom 1% of all major league hitters, McCutchen's have remained relatively stable from the last few years. In fact, his xBA is actually superior to last year at .264 and his xSLG is only two points lower at .429. Not all star level numbers for sure, but more than acceptable at his salary. 

[Robocaller]

3 hours ago, timpep said:

Unless of course you know something I don't.

I'm sure I know many things you don't. And I'm sure there are things you know that I don't know.

[Robocaller]

2.9 runs a game over the last 10 (1-9 record). The pitching has been just as bad (6.5 runs/game).

Reason for optimism? Yelich has 5 hits in 3 games leading off. 

[DR28]

I noticed Yeli has been in leadoff spot since Wong has been out of lineup... If he keeps hitting in leadoff spot, does everyone think he stays there and Wong drops to 7 spot when he's back?

Idk how I feel yet about him in leadoff spot and also dont know how I feel about Cutch as 3 hole hitter.

[Thurston Fluff]

On 6/9/2022 at 11:02 AM, Jopal78 said:

Fact is the Cardinals pitching staff has allowed 219 runs, and have scored 271 runs.

The Brewers pitching staff has allowed 224 runs, and have scored 249 runs. 

What the metrics say is really irrelevant, the Cardinals have scored more on offense than the Brewers, and their pitching staff has been better than Milwaukee in giving up runs. 

It also seems the same argument that the Brewers hitters will hit better, is also tied to a notion that the hitters for the Cardinals will falter at the same time which nobody really knows if either of these are true. 

The Cards also played one less game and didn't just go through a stretch of more games than days without a day off. Nor have they had as many road games so far. I know it isn't much of a difference but neither is the difference in the runs given up so far. When things even out then lets see who gave up the fewest runs. My money is on the Brewers.

The offense is where the difference between the two cannot be excused by the schedule or number of games played. Though it should be noted that this losing streak is coming after said string of games played. An easier schedule with less travel and more off days than the Cards will probably not be a bad thing later one. Just have to get through this part.

[DR28]

Our offense really isnt as bad as it's looked lately, is it?

Just frustrating because we have some real good players (Yelich, Adames, Urias, Renfroe, Tellez, Wong, Taylor)... Maybe Yeli has found something as a leadoff hitter.

[brewers888]

10 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Our offense really isnt as bad as it's looked lately, is it?

Just frustrating because we have some real good players (Yelich, Adames, Urias, Renfroe, Tellez, Wong, Taylor)... Maybe Yeli has found something as a leadoff hitter.

Most of those players you mentioned are not all that good and even the good hitters like Adames and Urias are nothing special. 

[brewers888]

The fact that Yelich getting a few singles is a source of excitement tells you really how far he's fallen. Its about the best we can expect at this point but this team really needs Yelich to be a star and not a slap hitter with virtually no power.