Wisconsin Football 2022- The Jim Leonhard Show ends, the Luke Fickell era begins

[Jim French Stepstool]

26 minutes ago, Oxy said:

I would normally expect a 20+ point blow-out here, but something just feels off.  OSU struggled against a mediocre Notre Dame team earlier this year.  Other than OSUs WR corps vs our secondary, we actually match-up really well against them style wise.  We've already had our debacle game with regards to special teams, penalties and turnovers costing us a loss.  If those 3 areas go in UWs favor tomorrow night it is going to be a close game.

Considering the people who have been out I'm pleasantly surprised by some of the plays the secondary has made. Admittedly they haven't faced a QB who should scare anyone throwing the ball yet, either. I like the way Latu flies around, and I never expected Torchio to reach the level of consistency he's shown. Certainly miss Wohler; I believe he can play at a very high level.

I think tomorrow will be a real test of just what level the O-line is capable of performing at. If Wedig can build on what he did last week it would be huge.

It's the B10 opener. I suspect they may get "hit in the mouth" early. If they can withstand it & respond in kind.....a big ST play, Allen rips off a long run, force a turnover, something......we may see them hang around. I just don't know if they can stand up to the wave after wave of talent & depth for 4 quarters.

[RedStickBrew]

Ugh.  Now it appears Jack Nelson will not play tonight. UW down two O linemen along with two starters in the secondary. 

[HarryDoyle]

So I guess I'm the only one that thinks Wisconsin is going to get curb stomped.

[nate82]

20 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

So I guess I'm the only one that thinks Wisconsin is going to get curb stomped.

No.  I think most know that Wisconsin is going to get curb stomped tonight.  The only way Wisconsin doesn't get curb stomped tonight is if Ohio State plays horribly (lots of penalties, poor special teams, etc.).  

[homer]

Washington State looks like they're gonna beat Oregon. That loss might not look so bad at the end of the year. 

 

Edit: or maybe not LOL

[HarryDoyle]

On 9/23/2022 at 4:23 PM, AKCheesehead said:

I see Bucky is 19 point dogs this week at OSU.  Hopefully tomorrow they can find a way to cost the ohio betters.

Maybe if the game is only 15 minutes long.

[nate82]

The offensive and defensive line are just absolutely horrible.  I don’t see anyone on this team that should even be considered as a starter.

[LouisEly]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

The offensive and defensive line are just absolutely horrible.  I don’t see anyone on this team that should even be considered as a starter.

When you're running only two DL all game against five OL your DL is going to look horrible.

That's on Leonhard, not Chryst.

[nate82]

This team looks completely unprepared to play.  This is the second time this year they have looked like this.  This is starting to look like a trend and this is 100% on PC.  

[Jim French Stepstool]

I personally don't think Chryst is in trouble......at this point. But I'm also not compelled to defend the start the team has gotten off to, either.

There are maybe two, maybe three teams in the nation with the depth of talent OSU has. We played them in their place, in the conference opener, and they obviously didn't overlook UW. I think it's silly to get out the pitchforks & torches after this game. There are some key games coming up---Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota. It would make much more sense to judge Chryst on those games.

Also, it looks like Cundiff has a broken bone. Really feel for the kid, after all he did to get back.

[HarryDoyle]

8 hours ago, LouisEly said:

When you're running only two DL all game against five OL your DL is going to look horrible.

That's on Leonhard, not Chryst.

That's the defense the Giants used to beat the Bills in the Super Bowl. Invite them to run the ball to avoid their passing game. Since I turned off the game at halftime I have no idea what OSU's run/pass ratio is, but the defensive game plan obviously didn't work for the Badgers as it did for the Giants. Then again, the talent gap between two teams playing in the Super Bowl is not nearly as big as it is between UW and OSU.

[nate82]

Once the divisions go away in the Big Ten the Badgers are going to be in serious trouble.  So it would be best to part ways with PC now so the program can rebuild and be ready for the removal of the divisions.  Once the divisions go away the Badgers are  going to be stuck permanently behind Ohio State, Michigan and others.  I think at best the Badgers will finish any year is 2nd unless Ohio State and Michigan are having off years.  

I think the Badgers once the divisions are eliminated will be going through a bunch of 5-7 seasons.  This program is heading towards Nebraska territory.  Once a powerhouse in college football to an afterthought.  If the Badgers continue with PC the best they are going to do will be a 9-3 or 8-4 seasons.  That would be fine if your goal is to play in one of the lesser bowl games.  The CFP is out of the question if the Badgers continue with PC.  

This season I think the Badgers are in real trouble of falling to a 5-7 season.  I could see the Badgers losing to Northwestern, Maryland, Nebraska and Minnesota.  There could be another loss to Michigan State or Purdue.  

[igor67]

For as bad as they were getting hammered if not for that ridiculous closing speed by the OSU safety at the end of the half they score that touchdown right at the end of the first half, and maybe have a little more spring in their step to start the second half as any score at that point and it really looks like a game again. I'm sure they get beat regardless, but suddenly you have to at least look favorably on the offense scoring a bunch of points on the road against a tough team. Which arguably would have been even more impressive because they would have done so without cheap turn over points or being able to play field position.

[MrTPlush]

They didn't score a touchdown there because they underthrew/overran the ball. 

 

On another note, from a competitive/success point of view, I am guessing Badgers fans aren't going to enjoy being in the Big Ten for football once divisions go away. Not that the Badgers weren't good the last 10-20 years, but they definitely got to inflate their win total and got the benefit of waltzing into the championship game so much without much competition.

[LouisEly]

3 hours ago, nate82 said:

Once the divisions go away in the Big Ten the Badgers are going to be in serious trouble.  So it would be best to part ways with PC now so the program can rebuild and be ready for the removal of the divisions.  Once the divisions go away the Badgers are  going to be stuck permanently behind Ohio State, Michigan and others.  I think at best the Badgers will finish any year is 2nd unless Ohio State and Michigan are having off years.  

I think the Badgers once the divisions are eliminated will be going through a bunch of 5-7 seasons.  This program is heading towards Nebraska territory.  Once a powerhouse in college football to an afterthought.  If the Badgers continue with PC the best they are going to do will be a 9-3 or 8-4 seasons.  That would be fine if your goal is to play in one of the lesser bowl games.  The CFP is out of the question if the Badgers continue with PC.  

This season I think the Badgers are in real trouble of falling to a 5-7 season.  I could see the Badgers losing to Northwestern, Maryland, Nebraska and Minnesota.  There could be another loss to Michigan State or Purdue.  

Nebraska thought the same thing that 9-3 seasons weren't good enough.  Where did that get them?

Until UW's administration adjusts the entrance requirements, 9-3 is probably as good as they are going to do.  And if the choices are 8-4 versus the last eight years of Nebraska (or Texas, or Florida, or Tennessee, or USC..), I'll take 8-4 every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

I'm trying to figure out where this is all coming from.  Ohio State, based on the early eyeball test, is either the #1 or #2 team in the country.  The Washington State game was a fluke, and WSU is vastly improved from last year and had a 12-point lead on Oregon with five minutes left in the fourth quarter last weekend before imploding.  Go back to 1999 when they looked horrible against Cincinnati and then lost to #4 Michigan at home; they proceeded to run the table. 

Wisconsin has a new OC and OL coach.  Results won't be instantaneous.

[nate82]

57 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Nebraska thought the same thing that 9-3 seasons weren't good enough.  Where did that get them?

Until UW's administration adjusts the entrance requirements, 9-3 is probably as good as they are going to do.  And if the choices are 8-4 versus the last eight years of Nebraska (or Texas, or Florida, or Tennessee, or USC..), I'll take 8-4 every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

I'm trying to figure out where this is all coming from.  Ohio State, based on the early eyeball test, is either the #1 or #2 team in the country.  The Washington State game was a fluke, and WSU is vastly improved from last year and had a 12-point lead on Oregon with five minutes left in the fourth quarter last weekend before imploding.  Go back to 1999 when they looked horrible against Cincinnati and then lost to #4 Michigan at home; they proceeded to run the table. 

Wisconsin has a new OC and OL coach.  Results won't be instantaneous.

The entrance requirements are not the problem though.  UW spends about a fraction on its recruitment department than most of the other schools in the conference.  UW lost its best recruiters to Michigan State and he nearly doubled his salary by moving from UW to Michigan State.  

PC is also a poor recruiter as he is losing 4 and 5 star recruits in WI.  That should not happen ever.  He sucks at his job and is an absolute failure at recruiting any player with any skill.  After his first three seasons PC has been absolute garbage.  The majority of PC's wins have come against poor teams Illinois, Rutgers, Indiana, etc.  If PC has to face a top 10 team he crumbles and can't get his team over the top.  Talent is one of the factors why but his coaching is also an issue.  Whenever the team plays a top 10 team they look bad and unprepared to play.  The Badgers looked completely unprepared to play against Ohio State it was like they didn't practice at all.  Like I have said previously this is nothing new from PC his teams have looked completely unprepared to play in big games or on the big stage.  This is all on PC he is a horrible coach when it comes to playing against equal or better competition.  He can kill the easy teams but once there is a little bit of adversary his teams quit on him and he can't coach around that and he can't get the team to play better. 

[PeaveyFury]

Nate, you’ve made your dislike of Chryst pretty well-known. I’m just not sure your bleak evaluation of the situation is reality.

It also seems to suggest that you believe that Wisconsin is a head coach away from competing with OSU, etc., which I just don’t think meshes with the harsh reality of what college football has become, which is a comically top heavy group of haves and have nots. A coach isn’t changing that, unfortunately. It’s possible the playoff expansion will allow other teams to elevate themselves back up a bit, but that remains to be seen.

[LouisEly]

16 minutes ago, nate82 said:

The entrance requirements are not the problem though.  UW spends about a fraction on its recruitment department than most of the other schools in the conference.  UW lost its best recruiters to Michigan State and he nearly doubled his salary by moving from UW to Michigan State.  

PC is also a poor recruiter as he is losing 4 and 5 star recruits in WI.  That should not happen ever.  He sucks at his job and is an absolute failure at recruiting any player with any skill.  After his first three seasons PC has been absolute garbage.  The majority of PC's wins have come against poor teams Illinois, Rutgers, Indiana, etc.  If PC has to face a top 10 team he crumbles and can't get his team over the top.  Talent is one of the factors why but his coaching is also an issue.  Whenever the team plays a top 10 team they look bad and unprepared to play.  The Badgers looked completely unprepared to play against Ohio State it was like they didn't practice at all.  Like I have said previously this is nothing new from PC his teams have looked completely unprepared to play in big games or on the big stage.  This is all on PC he is a horrible coach when it comes to playing against equal or better competition.  He can kill the easy teams but once there is a little bit of adversary his teams quit on him and he can't coach around that and he can't get the team to play better. 

Entrance requirements are absolutely an issue - haven't we heard this before?  Don't need to look any further than their own backyard in Sun Prairie, where they've had two four-star recruits (Isaac Hamm, Craig Evans) who wanted to come to UW but couldn't get in.  They had to sit down with Evans and tell him that he needed to look elsewhere because he wasn't going to get in.  They spend a fraction on recruitment because they know who can get in and who can't and don't bother with kids who are unlikely to get admitted.

As for losing 4-star in-state recruits... really?  All of those guys you are referring to strongly considered UW and came down to UW vs. where they went.  Billy Schrauth went to private Catholic schools - you don't think that Notre Dame is going to have some appeal?  Hinzman only considered UW and Ohio State - it's no shame to lose a kid to Ohio State.  According to people who know them, they went back and forth quite a bit and it was a very close, difficult decision.  If they're losing the top kids in the state to Iowa or Minnesota or Indiana, that's a reason to be concerned.  Penn State, maybe (but when it's all said and done, I'd be willing to bet that UW got the best in-state TE), but losing a Catholic kid to Notre Dame and another guy to Ohio State?  And UW is supposed to pull 4-star kids from other states, but schools in the CFP in the last couple of years can't pull one kid from UW?  Really?  Joe Brunner, the top player in the state last year, chose UW over Notre Dame and Ohio State.  Nolan Rucci chose UW over Clemson and Alabama.  T.J. Bollers chose UW over Alabama.  Mertz was offered by just about everyone and Ohio State tried like hell to poach him.

Barry Alvarez was 4-5-2 in his sixth season after going 7-4 and 10-1 the prior two seasons.  Would that have been a good idea to fire him?  Alvarez went 5-7 in 2001 after going 9-4, 10-2, and 11-1 in the prior three seasons; was the program in decline?  Should they have fired him?

If the expanded playoffs had been in place since Chryst was hired, he would have made the playoffs in 3 of his 7 seasons.  Is that not good enough?

[nate82]

37 minutes ago, PeaveyFury said:

Nate, you’ve made your dislike of Chryst pretty well-known. I’m just not sure your bleak evaluation of the situation is reality.

It also seems to suggest that you believe that Wisconsin is a head coach away from competing with OSU, etc., which I just don’t think meshes with the harsh reality of what college football has become, which is a comically top heavy group of haves and have nots. A coach isn’t changing that, unfortunately. It’s possible the playoff expansion will allow other teams to elevate themselves back up a bit, but that remains to be seen.

If Wisconsin plays a weak schedule sure they are better than the current situation.  But if they have to play Michigan or Ohio State it is basically an automatic loss.  

I don't believe the Badgers are a coach away they are a coach and better recruiting away from being competitive.  They have a really good defensive coordinator but lack a good head coach.  The jury is still out on the offensive coordinator so I will wait another year or two on him.  

Majority of Chryst's success is based on good defenses and good to elite running backs.  Take that away and I doubt he would have lasted past his first 5-years without the good to elite running backs and the near elite defense.  Heck just remove the good defense and do you think he would still have the record he has?  I don't believe he would.  

[Jim French Stepstool]

8 minutes ago, nate82 said:

 

Majority of Chryst's success is based on good defenses and good to elite running backs.  Take that away and I doubt he would have lasted past his first 5-years without the good to elite running backs and the near elite defense.  Heck just remove the good defense and do you think he would still have the record he has?  I don't believe he would.  

I mean.......can we take away the top two strengths of 90% of everyone else in CFB & judge how THEY would do, as well?

[NBBrewFan]

I would have thought that both legal and illegal drugs would be required to compare Chryst to Alvarez, or at least something that is up near the top in mind altering substances.

[UpandIn]

On 9/24/2022 at 10:33 PM, LouisEly said:

When you're running only two DL all game against five OL your DL is going to look horrible.

That's on Leonhard, not Chryst.

Again...you keep pounding this drum and it just doesn't make any sense...and it's MOSTLY based on the premise that Herbig isn't as big as the 240 LB DEs they had playing in the 43...when their defenses weren't as good.

They didn't get beat because of their defensive scheme. They could come out plus Mullins, Benton and Johnson, 3 big interior DL, take a LBer off the field...and OSU is going to pass all over the offense even more than they did in the first half(which is primarily how they built their lead).

They're missing their top CB in what's already and overmatched group...and they're missing a really good safety they were counting on for games exactly like this.

What it really comes down to is a 4 man front and...one of those defenders is listed about 10 pounds lighter than back when they were an objectively worse defense and played a 4-3.

I REALLY don't get this. Their defense has been...elite. The front 7 is their area of strength and has been since Dave Aranda came in here. 

 

7 hours ago, nate82 said:

The entrance requirements are not the problem though.  UW spends about a fraction on its recruitment department than most of the other schools in the conference.  UW lost its best recruiters to Michigan State and he nearly doubled his salary by moving from UW to Michigan State.  

They absolutely are though. Wisconsin has lost some of it's top athletes in multiple sports because they did not meet UW's academic standards. Northwestern is the only school in the B1G with similar academic standards and I know for a fact there have been a couple athletes coaches at Wisconsin wanted and tried to get into UW who ended up at Nortwestern.

So yeah, it's absolutely the entrance requirements. 

[UpandIn]

On 9/25/2022 at 7:11 AM, HarryDoyle said:

That's the defense the Giants used to beat the Bills in the Super Bowl. Invite them to run the ball to avoid their passing game. Since I turned off the game at halftime I have no idea what OSU's run/pass ratio is, but the defensive game plan obviously didn't work for the Badgers as it did for the Giants. Then again, the talent gap between two teams playing in the Super Bowl is not nearly as big as it is between UW and OSU.

They were getting picked apart in the passing game. That played a far bigger role in giving up 28 in the 1st Q. They've played their base...which is bigger and more physical than the 43 they used to play, they just do not have the DBs to matchup with Ohio State's speed, size and athleticism on the outside. 

5 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

I would have thought that both legal and illegal drugs would be required to compare Chryst to Alvarez, or at least something that is up near the top in mind altering substances.

It's making a point. For all the hand wringing over the Badgers, they've been a pretty damn good program.

2021-Lost to Mich(CFP), ND(they were down a score in the 4th before getting blown out), PSU and then Minn for the 2nd time in...~20 years. 
2020-Covid 4-3(including a blow out vs Michigan which is apparently a guaranteed loss if their on our schedule).
2019-10-4 two losses to Ohio State, a 1 point loss to Illinois, and then lost a 28-27 game in the Rose Bowl vs Justin Herbert and Oregon who...we kinda dominated, but had 4 turnovers.
2018-8-5 
2017-13-1  Blew out Iowa, Michigan, lost a 6 point game to OSU
2016-11-3 -Beat Leonard Fournette's LSU team week 1, lost 7 point games to #4 Mich, #2 OSU and #8 PSU
2015-Lost 35-17 to Alabama, 10-6 to Iowa and 13-7 to NU
 

Barry Alvarez is lionized because he brought back UW Football...and he should be. 

But if we're looking at actual results...no, I don't think we need to take anything to point out it might not be wise to get rid of Chryst and just take Chryst's success for granted.

Alvarez had about a 61% winning pct at UW.

Chryst is at about 73% winning pct at UW.

He was also the OC when we had a whole LOT of success.

 

Also, Barry Alvarez, AFTER returning UW to being a competitive program had a run of 

2001 5-7
2002 8-6
2003 7-6
2004 9-3

So...it's not just so much as being on drugs as a little more objective overview of the trajectory of the program over time, not just calling for the firing of a very successful coach while mocking the comparison of the HOF coach nobody questions.

UW has a 4 year run like this...and everyone will be calling for Paul Cryst's job...though, that's a bit difficult as it seems like many are as it stands. 

[UpandIn]

6 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I mean.......can we take away the top two strengths of 90% of everyone else in CFB & judge how THEY would do, as well?

LOL...yes, and those 10% where you can take away their two biggest strengths, those are the Ohio State, Alabama, UGA and then the team that makes a run. Nebraska in the 90s, then Miami(FSU for about 30 years), then Florida, USC and that's pretty much how it goes. A couple USC teams and a couple other teams from schools with talent just falling onto their campus...like USC or Miami(not so much Nebraska, that was just a dirty program).

 

This isn't the Packers or the Bucks. It's a LITTLE bit like the Brewers where you just kinda have to resign yourself to the fact that we just don't have the resources to win...but worse because the Brewers could definitely break through in a year.

Eliminate the recruiting standards, bring in Urban Meyer and spend as much as Texas A&M and I still just don't see this program competing with Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia...etc...

They'd just spend more money, sell out and people would yell louder and cheer the recruiting rankings more.

[Samurai Bucky]

To be honest with everybody, I was not aware of Leonard's plan by having a 2-4-5 defense.  I'm not saying it was the right choice (obviously), but I think he knew that Wisconsin could not go mano a mano with OSU.  So he tries to go with a scheme which, obviously didn't work.

So our reaction is to overreact.  Is Paul Chryst a good recruiter or a good coach?  I am not sure.  We can all talk about how he doesn't get the 5* recruits, but how many 5* recruits have the Badgers ever gotten?  Perhaps a handful?  Alvarez didn't get any 5* recruits, IIRC, but was able to develop the talent.  For all of Herbstreit's foibles about talking about OSU for 99.9% of the broadcast, he did mention that one thing Alvarez did was to develop players.

Compared to other programs, the Badgers have a lot of players in the NFL.  That means they are getting talent (not 112 NFL-ready players like some programs), and developing it.  I'm excited that Bobby Engram is the offensive coordinator.  I think the Badgers have one of the top, if not THE top defensive coordinator.  Wisconsin football has been based on limiting mistakes and pounding the ball.  Chryst going all in with Mertz seems to be one of the biggest keys to the lack of success.

Let's get off the ledge.  The Badgers can still win the West.  Call it a weak schedule if you want, but in the 70's and 80's, Wisconsin lost to D2 teams.  A win is a win.  If they finish 3rd or 4th in the West, I will be singing a different tune.