Bush will be fine

[edfunderburk]

I’m aware that his first two outings have been suboptimal, but I live in DFW & have watched him pitch for the Rangers over the last few years - he is a quality bullpen arm who will add value to this year’s team as well as the next few years IF he can remain healthy

I like this addition & come end of season, I believe Brewers fans will agree that he was worthy of our 8th ranked minor league OF & a journeyman AAAA utility player 

[Simba2020]

Bush is also a guy that has an ERA of 4 since 2017 and a FIP higher than that. He also hasn't pitched for a team with a winning record in that time. So very low pressure situations from a team standpoint. I could just as easily see him pitching awful the rest of the way.

[endaround]

Bush is 36 years old and hasn't pitched more than 40 innings since 2017. He wasn't good in any season since 2017 until this year,

[stalton]

Off topic, the jokester in me wants to make a joke (either political or anatomical) but neither is forum friendly.

On topic, I think most people including myself are guilty of sizing up trades and other moves by the immediate results.  The aforementioned Davies trade is the perfect example of how we as a collective need patience.  

All that being said, I think we will all breathe easier when our team goes on another winning streak.

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, stalton said:

Off topic, the jokester in me wants to make a joke (either political or anatomical) but neither is forum friendly.

Good you didn't because that probably would've brought a ban.

But is it coincidental that we trade for Bush after the Brewers switch from Coors/Miller sponsorship to Anheuser Busch? Conspiracy theory??? ?

edit: Scratch that... it was the Bucks that switched.  But still... 

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, edfunderburk said:

 worthy of our 8th ranked minor league OF & a journeyman AAAA utility player 

Are you thinking of Peters? Bush went for Kelly & Matthias. Which is still OK with me since Kelly is rule 5 eligible.

I too, think Bush will be OK, I just wonder sometimes about the sense of urgency in this organization regarding bullpen pieces at the deadline, compared to other needs. Of course that's easy to say when we can't get behind the closed doors & know what it would take to pick up the guy we "should've" gotten.

[edfunderburk]

16 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Are you thinking of Peters? Bush went for Kelly & Matthias. Which is still OK with me since Kelly is rule 5 eligible.

I too, think Bush will be OK, I just wonder sometimes about the sense of urgency in this organization regarding bullpen pieces at the deadline, compared to other needs. Of course that's easy to say when we can't get behind the closed doors & know what it would take to pick up the guy we "should've" gotten.

Ah yes … you are correct … it was Antoine Kelly 

I still stand by my belief in Bush as adding more value in the next few years

i “like” Kelly but I don’t love him … I’m not sure he will ever be a quality big league pitcher - too erratic (walks too many like Small) 

[stalton]

41 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Good you didn't because that probably would've brought a ban.

But is it coincidental that we trade for Bush after the Brewers switch from Coors/Miller sponsorship to Anheuser Busch? Conspiracy theory??? ?

edit: Scratch that... it was the Bucks that switched.  But still... 

I've been a BF.netter for awhile.  I keep my inappropriate self to my friends.

Although now that it's Am Fam and not Miller Park, so there is that conspiracy.

[UpandIn]

7 hours ago, edfunderburk said:

Ah yes … you are correct … it was Antoine Kelly 

I still stand by my belief in Bush as adding more value in the next few years

i “like” Kelly but I don’t love him … I’m not sure he will ever be a quality big league pitcher - too erratic (walks too many like Small) 

Not...QUITE like Small.

Kelly has huge upside. He's been in the system for 4 years and 2 of them were wasted with Covid and then the TOS. 

But he throws in the upper 90s, great athlete, a plus slider and developing a change. His pure stuff is as good as anyone in this system(though maybe our recent Juco signee passed him up ever so slightly in that regard). 

But he's not like Small. Small can't dominate hitters. He has to stay in front and keep them guessing. Kelly can throw it by you and just overpower pitchers. And he still had more in his frame. This was his first year pitching and he threw 90+ innings and gave up a .179 BAA, 3.81 ERA and had 119Ks while getting more GBs than FOs. And that ERA was inflated by the worst start of the year being his last(6ER in 2IP and a couple of HRs). 

 

Kelly was very similar to Ashby...IMO and not far away. Was scheduled to get bumped to AA. This was and remains the trade I liked the least. 

But I think Bush will settle in. I'd imagine he's having a difficult time emotionally right now. I hope the Brewers are providing the support he needs with the move and all. 

[edfunderburk]

4 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Not...QUITE like Small.

Kelly has huge upside. He's been in the system for 4 years and 2 of them were wasted with Covid and then the TOS. 

But he throws in the upper 90s, great athlete, a plus slider and developing a change. His pure stuff is as good as anyone in this system(though maybe our recent Juco signee passed him up ever so slightly in that regard). 

But he's not like Small. Small can't dominate hitters. He has to stay in front and keep them guessing. Kelly can throw it by you and just overpower pitchers. And he still had more in his frame. This was his first year pitching and he threw 90+ innings and gave up a .179 BAA, 3.81 ERA and had 119Ks while getting more GBs than FOs. And that ERA was inflated by the worst start of the year being his last(6ER in 2IP and a couple of HRs). 

 

Kelly was very similar to Ashby...IMO and not far away. Was scheduled to get bumped to AA. This was and remains the trade I liked the least. 

But I think Bush will settle in. I'd imagine he's having a difficult time emotionally right now. I hope the Brewers are providing the support he needs with the move and all. 

I wasn’t clear

I was trying to say … Kelly & Small both walk too many batters

So, like Small … Kelly has control challenges that could hinder him from being an effective MLB pitcher

You may disagree - which is fine - but I was not comparing their pitching styles, velocity … just that both walk too many batters 

[edfunderburk]

5 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

But I think Bush will settle in. I'd imagine he's having a difficult time emotionally right now. I hope the Brewers are providing the support he needs with the move and all. 

I wholeheartedly agree & hope that Milwaukee will provide the unique accountability that Bush will require to be successful 

[UpandIn]

24 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

I wasn’t clear

I was trying to say … Kelly & Small both walk too many batters

So, like Small … Kelly has control challenges that could hinder him from being an effective MLB pitcher

You may disagree - which is fine - but I was not comparing their pitching styles, velocity … just that both walk too many batters 

Ok...but in another thread I argued the same, I pointed out that was also true with...most of the Brewers elite arms(and really, just young power arms in general).

Woodruff in College struggled with this, Burnes early on, Ashby, Hader, Lauer, Peralta...

He's got to get his walks down...but if you can get a lot of strikeouts, and if you can keep the opponents BA down, you can get by without...Maddux like command(I understand that's hyperbolic). 

 

It's done now, but...I'm not changing my stance on Kelly. He's an elite arm. Future TOR IMO or backend of the BP.

 

[Jopal78]

Regardless of what Bush does he likely gets non-tendered after the season. The Brewers already have Boxberger with a club option, Gott, Williams, Suter and Milner arbitration eligible. They have Cousins and Topa coming back both pre-arbitration eligible. There’s only so many beans to go around, and 37 year old with trouble staying healthy is probably the odd man out. 

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

Regardless of what Bush does he likely gets non-tendered after the season. The Brewers already have Boxberger with a club option, Gott, Williams, Suter and Milner arbitration eligible. They have Cousins and Topa coming back both pre-arbitration eligible. There’s only so many beans to go around, and 37 year old with trouble staying healthy is probably the odd man out. 

"REGARDLESS of what Bush does he likely gets non-tendered?"

It'll be shocking if they non-tender him...even if he struggles a bit. He's not gonna get 11M in arbitration, it'll be maybe 3M. They didn't give up Kelly to get him back and non-tender him unless something else happens or he's just absolutely terrible.

[edfunderburk]

7 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Ok...but in another thread I argued the same, I pointed out that was also true with...most of the Brewers elite arms(and really, just young power arms in general).

Woodruff in College struggled with this, Burnes early on, Ashby, Hader, Lauer, Peralta...

He's got to get his walks down...but if you can get a lot of strikeouts, and if you can keep the opponents BA down, you can get by without...Maddux like command(I understand that's hyperbolic). 

 

It's done now, but...I'm not changing my stance on Kelly. He's an elite arm. Future TOR IMO or backend of the BP.

 

All good points & accurate reminders 

I do believe Kelly will be as good or better than Small - whom I see as nobody special

[nate82]

8 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Regardless of what Bush does he likely gets non-tendered after the season. The Brewers already have Boxberger with a club option, Gott, Williams, Suter and Milner arbitration eligible. They have Cousins and Topa coming back both pre-arbitration eligible. There’s only so many beans to go around, and 37 year old with trouble staying healthy is probably the odd man out. 

Suter is more likely to be released than Bush.

[Never Outhustled]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

Suter is more likely to be released than Bush.

Both have a good chance of being non tendered.

[Jopal78]

5 hours ago, nate82 said:

Suter is more likely to be released than Bush.

Suter throws with his left hand, that gives him an edge. 

[edfunderburk]

23 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Suter throws with his left hand, that gives him an edge. 

It seems that we have “too many” lefties in our bullpen … 

[brewers888]

Kelly had the best arm in our system so trading him for a 37 yr old reliever is one of the most indefensible moves Stearns has ever made. Personally I would take Kelly over Gasser who everyone seems gaga over since he became Brewers property.  Giving up a potential top of the rotation arm for any reliever specifically this one is stupid. 

[brewers888]

One other thing comparing Kelly and Small is crazy. Though both have control problems Kelly has top of the rotation upside wiith his big arm while Small projects as a 4th or 5th starter best case scenario. Maybe neither will become successful but my bet is on Kelly without a doubt.

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Kelly had the best arm in our system so trading him for a 37 yr old reliever is one of the most indefensible moves Stearns has ever made. Personally I would take Kelly over Gasser who everyone seems gaga over since he became Brewers property.  Giving up a potential top of the rotation arm for any reliever specifically this one is stupid. 

You should probably compare Kelly's and Gasser's BB/9 rates before getting all upset. Kelly's is almost double Gasser's and has shown no signs of going down. Meanwhile, Gasser strikes out just as many batters at a higher competition level and has three plus pitches compared to Kelly who has two at most. Kelly is not close to top of the rotation right now. 

[brewers888]

26 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You should probably compare Kelly's and Gasser's BB/9 rates before getting all upset. Kelly's is almost double Gasser's and has shown no signs of going down. Meanwhile, Gasser strikes out just as many batters at a higher competition level and has three plus pitches compared to Kelly who has two at most. Kelly is not close to top of the rotation right now. 

Kelly has more upside and regardless trading an arm like Kelly for a 37 yr old reliever makes no sense. Stearns was clearly overcompensating for the Hader trade by acquiring as many bullpen arms as possible when he should have been looking to improve the lineup.

 

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Kelly has more upside and regardless trading an arm like Kelly for a 37 yr old reliever makes no sense. Stearns was clearly overcompensating for the Hader trade by acquiring as many bullpen arms as possible when he should have been looking to improve the lineup.

 

Upside means virtually nothing when you're walking as many hitters as Kelly has been throughout his minor league career. That's a one way ticket to the bullpen or out of the major league's altogether. He still has an opportunity to fix his control issues, but the likelihood that he eventually does so and turns into an effective major league pitcher let a lone a top of the rotation starter is quickly decreasing. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, brewers888 said:

Kelly had the best arm in our system so trading him for a 37 yr old reliever is one of the most indefensible moves Stearns has ever made. Personally I would take Kelly over Gasser who everyone seems gaga over since he became Brewers property.  Giving up a potential top of the rotation arm for any reliever specifically this one is stupid. 

The move isn’t indefensible but it IS puzzling. Time will tell whether it was hubris or not.

One thing fans always need to keep in mind is that we’re using, at best, 20% of the knowledge of the organization to evaluate things. Not only don’t we see personal makeup or underlying issues, our evaluation stats are rudimentary.