Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)

[Austin Tatious]

If you look at Adames’ career, he profiles as a .250 hitter.  This year he’s been hitting more like a power hitting 3B who can happen to field SS.   I don’t know if he is sacrificing average for power, but he’s got an odd stat line for hitting second in the order.  Having said all that, he seems like a guy we can extend.  

[Playing Catch]

It's kind of overwhelming thinking about all of the different directions the Brewers brass could move this off-season. Everything from emptying the farm for one big-time chance next season, to trading away Yelich, Woodruff, and Burnes and completely overhauling the MLB roster. As we've all noted in this tread, it is extremely unlikely they extend Woodruff/Burnes, so it stands to reason, they'll need to overhaul the roster for 2024 for sure.

For that reason, I think that they will trade one of Burnes/Woodruff this offseason. If the team waits until the following off-season, it will be something of a fire-sale situation, which could narrow the band of teams that may want to trade for them. If you trade just one of them this off-season, it could soften the blow for the following off-season in terms of having a complete sell-off.

The Yelich contract is really a tough thing when the team's best prospects and best hitters play the same positions (OF/DH).

1 hour ago, Austin Tatious said:

If you look at Adames’ career, he profiles as a .250 hitter.  This year he’s been hitting more like a power hitting 3B who can happen to field SS.   I don’t know if he is sacrificing average for power, but he’s got an odd stat line for hitting second in the order.  Having said all that, he seems like a guy we can extend.  

I think an Adames extension is possible, but I suspect it would be more expensive than we would like. Especially if Turang ends up being a legitimate offensive player.

[Robocaller]

On 8/25/2022 at 8:06 AM, Austin Tatious said:

If you look at Adames’ career, he profiles as a .250 hitter.  This year he’s been hitting more like a power hitting 3B who can happen to field SS.   I don’t know if he is sacrificing average for power, but he’s got an odd stat line for hitting second in the order.  Having said all that, he seems like a guy we can extend.  

He hit over .250 in every season before this one. At his age, he could still get better. The ceiling might be his performance with the brewers last year.

[LincolnDD]

Yeah, I feel like shortstop/Adames is low on the priority list for potential changes this off-season.  If an opportunity comes up to make a good move there, then do it, but as of right now it's pretty well settled.  It's a good spot to be in.

There's a lot of high-end talent at shortstop in MLB, but that high-end talent is expensive, probably too expensive here.  And the drop off from the stars to the rest is pretty steep.  Adames has his warts, but he's solid with some upside.  The Brewers are in a better spot there than a lot of teams.

[brewers888]

The first order of business this offseason is to either extend Stearns and if he is determined to leave and go back home to the mutts let him go as we cannot afford to have a lame duck executive making moves for the future of a franchise he has no intention of being a part of.

If Stearns leaves which I fully expect I would go after Luhnow who has paid enough of a price for what he did with the Astros. Mark A will of course go the cheap route and just let the unproven Matt Arnold run things which could be good or awful as we just have no idea whatsoever what kind of top executive he will be.

I would move both Burnes and Woodruff if we can't resign either which is a longshot at best. Hopefully we can get big packages for both specifically some pitching as the system is lacking in good young arms ( stay away from trading for more outfielders as we clearly have enough on the way plus the albatross Yelich who is going nowhere). The window has clearly closed for this group due to ignoring the lineup which pretty much wasted the best starting pitching in team history. If we can do well in the deals for Burnes and Woodruff maybe we take a step back for a year and are ready to contend again by 2024 but the cut and paste short term nonsense signings of guys like McCutchen have to end.

Its a shame that we wasted this rotation and the back end of a bullpen with Devin and Hader but we have. Too bad we didn't have all these intriguing position player prospects to compliment the pitching but unfortunately the timing just didn't work out.

As much as Stearns has done a good job with this organization he failed miserably at the last seasons trade deadline as well as last offseason and this deadline was another mess. Its time for an overhaul which means its time for Stearns to commit or leave.

[NBBrewFan]

4 hours ago, LincolnDD said:

Yeah, I feel like shortstop/Adames is low on the priority list for potential changes this off-season.  If an opportunity comes up to make a good move there, then do it, but as of right now it's pretty well settled.  It's a good spot to be in.

There's a lot of high-end talent at shortstop in MLB, but that high-end talent is expensive, probably too expensive here.  And the drop off from the stars to the rest is pretty steep.  Adames has his warts, but he's solid with some upside.  The Brewers are in a better spot there than a lot of teams.

Yep, plus it isn't Adames fault his manager puts him #2 in the lineup every every every every every day.  That .290 OBP can't be hurting the offense because we just need more solo HR anyways.  Runners just make force outs and double plays easier.

[monty57]

Brewer management has made it abundantly clear that they want to remain "continually competitive." That means that they will not go "all in" or "tank," they're going to rely on their prospects to perform at the MLB level, and they won't let superstar players walk in free agency. It has also come to light that attendance is way down across the league this year. I think the Brewers were overbudget this year, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the opening day payroll drop from the roughly $132M is was to start this year. 

The big question then becomes when they will trade away Burnes, Woodruff, Lauer, and Adames (Houser has kind of pitched himself out of this discussion). I believe that they will trade away one of the "big 2" this offseason, with a focus on bringing back players who are in the upper minors or already have a taste of the big leagues. That would still leave them with a strong rotation anchored by Burnes or Woodruff as the ace, along with Peralta, Lauer and Ashby and the fifth starter up for grabs among Houser and the MLB-ready prospects or someone who is brought back in the Burnes/Woodruff trade.

Mitchell is up and has looked very good in his brief time here. I think it's a given that CF will be manned by a rookie next year, and they will have to give a lot of thought to trading Renfroe. He's had a good season, and we'd get something in return, but he will be entering his final year and make somewhere in the $10-11M range, so a trade could make sense. An outfield of Yelich, Mitchell, Frelick/Wiemer/Ruiz could be a real strength.

If I had to guess, I'd say that Wong's option will not be exercised, but I think management likes the way he plays and is trying to get more players like him, so there is a possibility he'll be retained. If he is, I think the best move for the team would be to put Turang ay SS an move Adames to 3B, but I doubt Adames would go along with that. More likely, I think the infield will be Tellez and some combo of Adames, Urias, Turang, and Brosseau with another utility guy from somewhere. I do think that they're tiring of Urias' approach, and with the potential money saved from guys like Burnes/Woodruff, Renfroe and Wong, they could make a play for a third baseman. 

Hiura has done enough to be penciled in as the normal DH, along with getting some reps at 1B and maybe a little 2B and LF. Brosseau or one of the OF could spell him when a lefty is on the mound. This could save them from having to sign another veteran FA for the role.

I think they'll retain Caratini for his final arby year, but will find a veteran FA catcher (someone like Barnhardt, Castro, Sanchez, Vasquez) on a 1-2 year deal, with Feliciano as "insurance" at AAA.

Trying to guess what will happen this offseason is a fool's errand, as anything could happen, but it's kind of fun to ponder. I think that people who hated the Hader trade will hate this offseason. We'll probably trade some good players for young guys people haven't heard of, we probably won't spend a lot of money, and we could have three rookies in the opening day day lineup and maybe one in the starting rotation, and that's not including who could come over in trade.

 

[sveumrules]

On 8/27/2022 at 9:00 AM, brewers888 said:

If Stearns leaves which I fully expect

Don’t the Brewers have to make the WS or NLCS or something for Stearns to opt out after this season?

Admire your optimism.

[Playing Catch]

On 8/30/2022 at 3:23 PM, monty57 said:

Brewer management has made it abundantly clear that they want to remain "continually competitive." That means that they will not go "all in" or "tank," they're going to rely on their prospects to perform at the MLB level, and they won't let superstar players walk in free agency. It has also come to light that attendance is way down across the league this year.

Monty's post is exactly my thoughts.

My only (minor) disagreements are with your thoughts on Urias and Hiura.

I can't help but feel that this will end up being a "down" year for Urias, and that the club will entrust him with his current role as "regular" IFer that can move around. He's still young enough (currently 25) to think there could be improvement for a player that before this season, was still considered a bat-to-ball hitting talent.

I also think that the club will be fearful that the recent uptick in Hiura's production cannot be counted on (I sure hope it can!), and they will have lots of DH/Middle-of-the-order redundancies.

It wouldn't be a Brewers offseason without myriad redundancies and 40-man roster crunches.

[UpandIn]

On 8/27/2022 at 9:00 AM, brewers888 said:

The first order of business this offseason is to either extend Stearns and if he is determined to leave and go back home to the mutts let him go as we cannot afford to have a lame duck executive making moves for the future of a franchise he has no intention of being a part of.

If Stearns leaves which I fully expect I would go after Luhnow who has paid enough of a price for what he did with the Astros. Mark A will of course go the cheap route and just let the unproven Matt Arnold run things which could be good or awful as we just have no idea whatsoever what kind of top executive he will be.

This is totally and utterly without merit. In fact, everything I've read has suggested that the Brewers pay their executives a premium. So I don't know why he'd "cheap out," all the sudden. Because he's a naïve  business man and doesn't understand the value of executives?

As for Stearns, again, without merit to suggest because he's a lame duck he's not going to do what's in the best interest of this team. If you're arguing that not planning on being part of the future means he's going to make moves that damage the future, then I'd refer you to Robert Gasser. 

Seems like if he was so dead set on getting out of Milwaukee, he'd have been willing to overpay for the few bats that were available. The Trevor Rosenthal deal never made sense and I didn't like the Matt Bush deal, but neither were short sighted deals.

 

On 8/30/2022 at 3:23 PM, monty57 said:

Brewer management has made it abundantly clear that they want to remain "continually competitive." That means that they will not go "all in" or "tank," they're going to rely on their prospects to perform at the MLB level, and they won't let superstar players walk in free agency. It has also come to light that attendance is way down across the league this year. I think the Brewers were overbudget this year, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the opening day payroll drop from the roughly $132M is was to start this year. 

Right...they're certainly not in a position where they have to choose between either or. They could realistically lose both Burnes and Woodruff and remain competitive in 2025 given the pitching they have and the pitching projected to be up by then. That's not to say it's a good idea...it clearly isn't wise to lose two aces for two draft picks. 

As for the Brewers being overbudget...it's obviously impossible to know exactly where they are, but with the increased National TV money(which sadly is a fraction of how revenue is shared in the other two leagues)...that's going up enough that I think they can pretty comfortably stay in the 130 range or even push it up to 150. 

 

The Brewers are getting at a minimum of 110M before attendance or anything else is factored in with the new TBS/ESPN TV deals and the tiny revenue sharing. So I think 130 is kinda the new 100M for this franchise. They won't spend it just to spend it(as they may have done in the past cough*Suppan*cough)...but I believe Attanasio when he says the money is there to add players in the budget. And he was pretty clear, there was no player deal they could have made for this year or the next 2-3 years that wouldn't have fit into their budget before kinda stopping short.

It still doesn't make sense to lock yourselves into long term deals like Kris Bryant, but I don't think the Brewers need to take a big step back in terms of payroll. 

 

[monty57]

15 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

Monty's post is exactly my thoughts.

My only (minor) disagreements are with your thoughts on Urias and Hiura.

I can't help but feel that this will end up being a "down" year for Urias, and that the club will entrust him with his current role as "regular" IFer that can move around. He's still young enough (currently 25) to think there could be improvement for a player that before this season, was still considered a bat-to-ball hitting talent.

I also think that the club will be fearful that the recent uptick in Hiura's production cannot be counted on (I sure hope it can!), and they will have lots of DH/Middle-of-the-order redundancies.

It wouldn't be a Brewers offseason without myriad redundancies and 40-man roster crunches.

I like Urias, and wish the best for him. I think he's trying to hit a homer on every pitch, and that's not really his game. I think he'd be a lot better if he remembers that he should be a bat-to-ball guy. In my opinion, the extra handful of home runs he hits with his current approach aren't worth the drop in OBP. Unfortunately in today's baseball, players know that swinging for the fences is how they get a big paycheck, so I doubt he changes unless he continues to lose playing time.

Looking at recent draft picks and the free agent signings of Wong and Cain, I think that Brewer management likes guys who make contact and play good defense, so I think that over the next few years we'll see a shift from the current "all or nothing" approach our lineup takes to more contact/OBP guys. If Urias doesn't adapt, I think he'll be moved for a guy who will.

As to Hiura, there is definitely a lot of risk. I think that if they are in a bit of a payroll crunch, they could find a better way to spend money than to bring in another DH-only vet. If they do rely on Hiura and he doesn't pan out, then they have a "fall back" of bringing up some OF prospects and shuffling the DH between Yelich, Renfroe, Mitchell, Ruiz, Frelick, and Wiemer. But, if he does pan out and gets everyday playing time, they could have a real weapon in Hiura now that the DH is part of NL baseball.

[brewcrewdue80]

The team chemistry is a joke. Team needs a full breakdown on nearly all the offensive players. Renfroe, Wong, Adames, Urias, whomever is a catcher still with the team(all of them), Tellez, Peterson, Taylor, and Davis.  

Mix in Lauer and Woodruff.

Burnes, Peralta, Ashby, Houser are a good enough rotation to build around.

 

All these trade-aways youre looking for a 3b, 1b, C, 2b/SS and some pitching to dream on.

The lack of (all the guys I listed above on offense trading away) multiple players getting hot building off one another tells me there's no vibe going on.  Thought Adames was supposed to be this great clubhouse guy but where is it this season? He's been below average. Urias clearly isn't the future. Tellez I'd say you're selling high.  Just in need of changing the scenery of the lineup. Adding Turang, Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer and soon Chourio I hope becomes a start. Youll have Yelich(not movable)  Hiura and Brosseau(someone to play 3b) still around for time being.

Just want the lineup to not feel hopeless after these past few seasons. Men on base 0 outs and you know you're about to see 2 strikeouts and a groundout/flyout.

[brewers888]

This team is not a true contender for the rest of the time that we have Burnes and Woodruff under contract so the time has come to move one or even both next offseason. I just hope that either Stearns signs long term or leaves this offseason because we cannot have a lame duck GM making moves that will affect this franchise going forward. 

[brewers888]

This season was doomed last offseason when ownership went "over budget" to bring in McCutchen thinking that was a move to put us over the top. The lineup was never going to be good enough and then the pitching and defense regressed leaving this a mediocre to bad team.

[UpandIn]

6 hours ago, brewers888 said:

This season was doomed last offseason when ownership went "over budget" to bring in McCutchen thinking that was a move to put us over the top. The lineup was never going to be good enough and then the pitching and defense regressed leaving this a mediocre to bad team.

I've asked and I'll ask again, what was the move they could have or should have made?

I'm not bothering again, but I went down the list of pretty much all the position players, and the ones that made the most sense...in my estimation...bringing back Escobar(which would have been panned as standing still anyway) wouldn't have helped as he has a negative WAR. Taylor and Turner both went back to LAD and neither has been worth their salary and that's without factoring what they'd have had to actually pay as...just going out on a limb, I'll guess those are more desirable destinations. 

So...lets use the benefit of hindsight. Who can you make a reasonable argument should have been brought in during the truncated free agency period?

[brewers888]

15 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I've asked and I'll ask again, what was the move they could have or should have made?

I'm not bothering again, but I went down the list of pretty much all the position players, and the ones that made the most sense...in my estimation...bringing back Escobar(which would have been panned as standing still anyway) wouldn't have helped as he has a negative WAR. Taylor and Turner both went back to LAD and neither has been worth their salary and that's without factoring what they'd have had to actually pay as...just going out on a limb, I'll guess those are more desirable destinations. 

So...lets use the benefit of hindsight. Who can you make a reasonable argument should have been brought in during the truncated free agency period?

There is this new thing called trades to get better players but since I am not a GM I do not know who was available. Just as Adames and Rowdy were acquired in trades there were probably guys available that we don't know about and never will but the job of a GM is improving weaknesses and we didn't do nearly enough to improve a lineup that was not nearly good enough to support what looked to be a championship level pitching staff going into this season. 

[brewers888]

A big problem is that we never had any position player prospects to supplement the strong home grown pitching staff which forced us to sign free agent scraps like McCutchen. 

[UpandIn]

9 hours ago, brewers888 said:

There is this new thing called trades to get better players but since I am not a GM I do not know who was available. Just as Adames and Rowdy were acquired in trades there were probably guys available that we don't know about and never will but the job of a GM is improving weaknesses and we didn't do nearly enough to improve a lineup that was not nearly good enough to support what looked to be a championship level pitching staff going into this season. 

Ok, so you don't know, but just..."someone."

They DID trade JBJ and a couple prospects for Hunter Renfroe who's putting up a pretty nice season, but, but I guess we ignore that because he's not having a bad year and still cling to the claim that McCutchen was "the big move."

 

But you kinda got me. I can't really argue with the, 'I don't know who just anyone,' type of logic when talking about who they could or should have acquired.

And we do kinda know who was available based on who was traded. But...whatever, go off. This is just tiring. 

Offense isn't even really the problem. We're top 10 in OPS, in Runs. Adames is a fraction not hitting anything close to what he was last year. Yelich was signed when he was an MVP and there was absolutely no reason to expect him to continue to struggle. Hiura went from top prospect, ROY contender to Russel Branyan basically(though IIRC, he could play a little defense).

 

It really ain't that complicated. For a team like the Brewers to win a World Series, you need a good GM(we kinda got one despite your claims he's not going to care about the future with one foot out the door despite all evidence to the contrary) and you need luck. That includes players having big years...not two of our best hitters to have BABIP's in the .240-260 range.

Not arguably the best defensive 2B in the game to just meltdown for a big chunk of the year and become one of the worst defenders. 
Not Peralta, Ashby, Houser and Woodruff to all go on the IR...

 

And I'd keep going here, but you really seem to think that just signing NOT McCutchen would have magically cured ALL that ails the Brewers...which is a conversation I'd entertain...if you at least suggested WHO that someone should be. 

 

[jay87shot]

The season wasn't doomed when we signed Cutch. The problem was that we were putting almost all the eggs in the basket that Yeli and Cain would return to All-Star form. Basically everything is/was the same, Renfroe is basically the same as Garcia. Therefore the only avenue for improvement was Yeli and Cain regaining past form. Regression from Willy, Omar, Urias, Cain, and to a lesser extend Taylor and Wong (early) have doomed a solid pitching staff.

[jay87shot]

Any ideas on finding a solid catcher? I had thought a month ago that Caratini/Severino/Feliciano/Reetz would be solid but I am not so sure now. Also maybe Narvaez could be back for 1/4 or 5.

Danny Jansen would be an interesting lower cost home town option to platoon with Victor.

MJ Melendez would be interesting, Salvy Perez isn't going anywhere. Weimer or Mitchell for Melendez would be a win/win.

Manny Pina could be a option as well with Atlantas duo.

James McCann if NYM eats his contract.

I am sure we could find a good young catcher in a Burnes or Woody deal.

 

[brewers888]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

Ok, so you don't know, but just..."someone."

They DID trade JBJ and a couple prospects for Hunter Renfroe who's putting up a pretty nice season, but, but I guess we ignore that because he's not having a bad year and still cling to the claim that McCutchen was "the big move."

 

But you kinda got me. I can't really argue with the, 'I don't know who just anyone,' type of logic when talking about who they could or should have acquired.

And we do kinda know who was available based on who was traded. But...whatever, go off. This is just tiring. 

Offense isn't even really the problem. We're top 10 in OPS, in Runs. Adames is a fraction not hitting anything close to what he was last year. Yelich was signed when he was an MVP and there was absolutely no reason to expect him to continue to struggle. Hiura went from top prospect, ROY contender to Russel Branyan basically(though IIRC, he could play a little defense).

 

It really ain't that complicated. For a team like the Brewers to win a World Series, you need a good GM(we kinda got one despite your claims he's not going to care about the future with one foot out the door despite all evidence to the contrary) and you need luck. That includes players having big years...not two of our best hitters to have BABIP's in the .240-260 range.

Not arguably the best defensive 2B in the game to just meltdown for a big chunk of the year and become one of the worst defenders. 
Not Peralta, Ashby, Houser and Woodruff to all go on the IR...

 

And I'd keep going here, but you really seem to think that just signing NOT McCutchen would have magically cured ALL that ails the Brewers...which is a conversation I'd entertain...if you at least suggested WHO that someone should be. 

 

Offense, defense, and pitching have all been bad but saying the offense has been good is ridiculous. This team has not been good at any phase of the game this season and its why they won't be a playoff team.  

No McCutchen was not a good signing but this was not a playoff team regardless so it really made no difference.

[MVP2110]

46 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Offense, defense, and pitching have all been bad but saying the offense has been good is ridiculous. This team has not been good at any phase of the game this season and its why they won't be a playoff team.  

No McCutchen was not a good signing but this was not a playoff team regardless so it really made no difference.

The Brewers are 10th in Defensive Runs Saved, 9th in Runs per game, & 13th in team ERA. While not elite in any one of the 3 phases they are above average in all 3 phases

[Austin Tatious]

On 8/26/2022 at 6:50 PM, Robocaller said:

He hit over .250 in every season before this one. At his age, he could still get better. The ceiling might be his performance with the brewers last year.

No.  His career average is .255 in a sizable sample size. My point is that is a lot better than he’s hitting this year and we can expect him to getting back to .250.  He is not the problem here but he also has to come down in the lineup.  

[Austin Tatious]

On 8/25/2022 at 10:47 AM, Playing Catch said:

It's kind of overwhelming thinking about all of the different directions the Brewers brass could move this off-season. Everything from emptying the farm for one big-time chance next season, to trading away Yelich, Woodruff, and Burnes and completely overhauling the MLB roster. As we've all noted in this tread, it is extremely unlikely they extend Woodruff/Burnes, so it stands to reason, they'll need to overhaul the roster for 2024 for sure.

For that reason, I think that they will trade one of Burnes/Woodruff this offseason. If the team waits until the following off-season, it will be something of a fire-sale situation, which could narrow the band of teams that may want to trade for them. If you trade just one of them this off-season, it could soften the blow for the following off-season in terms of having a complete sell-off.

The Yelich contract is really a tough thing when the team's best prospects and best hitters play the same positions (OF/DH).

I think an Adames extension is possible, but I suspect it would be more expensive than we would like. Especially if Turang ends up being a legitimate offensive player.

I honestly don’t think he’s a good enough player to price himself out of Milwaukee.  I think he will get a sizable deal but something we can swing.  At some point Mark A will have to spend money (wisely) and I think he will on the right targets.  I feel like Adames fits the bill.  

[UpandIn]

2 hours ago, brewers888 said:

Offense, defense, and pitching have all been bad but saying the offense has been good is ridiculous. This team has not been good at any phase of the game this season and its why they won't be a playoff team.  

No McCutchen was not a good signing but this was not a playoff team regardless so it really made no difference.

I stated a fact. An objective fact. Brewers, 10th in OPS, 9th in runs. Top 1/3rd in the league. 

Unless I missed it, show me where I stated they were "good."

 

It is incredibly easy to change what someone else ACTUALLY said, replace it with a point that's easier to argue against and then argue against that.

So AGAIN, are they NOT 9th in runs scored and 10th in OPS?

 

-You're fixated on McCutchen and you've really got no other reasonable response as to what they should have done other than pointing you are in fact, NOT a GM(I was not under the impression you were for the record).

Who HAS said he was some great signing? Again, easier to kinda assign a position to someone and then argue against that. I didn't say he was. I asked who they SHOULD have signed and got nothing. I even provided for the benefit of hindsight.