Hader VERY BAD for Padres

[monty57]

I have no ill-will for Hader. The only reason I hope he trips up a bit is because the Brewers are chasing the Padres for the final playoff spot, so any of their players doing poorly helps the Brewers in that regard.

Since the trade is done, what I hope is that the players the Brewers received do well. Rogers hasn't performed up to expectations, so the my hopes really lie on Ruiz and Gasser. Either one of these guys could make this a "win" for the Brewers if they can have a good six years in Milwaukee. If both of them make it to the show and provide positive value, I will be happy, regardless of how Hader pitches next year.

Since coming to Nashville, Gasser has looked pretty good in his limited time (21.1 IP). He's walked too many guys (6.75 BB/9), leading to a 1.50 WHIP, but he has an ERA of 3.38, with a .208 BAA/.624 OPS against, and 10.55 K/9. He is probably going to be a big part of what we hope will keep the Brewers competitive in the coming years.

In my opinion, Ruiz is probably #4 out of the Frelick/Mitchell/Weimer/Ruiz group, but he should be an exciting player who has already had a taste of the MLB. At best, he'll get on base a lot and lead the league in stolen bases. At worst, he should at least be a MLB 4th OF, so we should get some value out of him.

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, StearnsFTW said:

It's only meaningless if they make the playoffs, which is far from guaranteed.

 

They face a bunch of teams with nothing to play for. The only positive is they play the Dodgers before the last two series where they might really start punting games to give guys rest etc. Anything can happen over a few weeks time...but their schedule is a cake walk and many of those players are going to be thinking about the offseason with every passing day.  I doubt we catch them and the Phillies end the season worse at the same time.

Notable if they choke...but their odds of almost 90% probably make them a safe bet.

[NBBrewFan]

2 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

It's only meaningless if they make the playoffs, which is far from guaranteed.

 

Well there are unbiased sites that use numbers to calculate the odds and the Brewers are behind both the Phillies and Padres for the last 2 spots so while nobody is guaranteed anything until they clinch, the odds are for the Padres and Phillies.

[NBBrewFan]

15 hours ago, Axman59 said:

Agreed. A total kick to the crotch. I can't even imagine how angry the players must be.

I imagine they were upset until the next paycheck hit their accounts and then, yay I love getting paid, i mean playing for, the Brewers!

[StearnsFTW]

9 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

They face a bunch of teams with nothing to play for. The only positive is they play the Dodgers before the last two series where they might really start punting games to give guys rest etc. Anything can happen over a few weeks time...but their schedule is a cake walk and many of those players are going to be thinking about the offseason with every passing day.  I doubt we catch them and the Phillies end the season worse at the same time.

Notable if they choke...but their odds of almost 90% probably make them a safe bet.

All true. 

 

If they don't though, whoops.

[StearnsFTW]

9 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

Well there are unbiased sites that use numbers to calculate the odds and the Brewers are behind both the Phillies and Padres for the last 2 spots so while nobody is guaranteed anything until they clinch, the odds are for the Padres and Phillies.

Yep.

 

What a huge mistake though if....

[Robocaller]

12 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

Well there are unbiased sites that use numbers to calculate the odds and the Brewers are behind both the Phillies and Padres for the last 2 spots so while nobody is guaranteed anything until they clinch, the odds are for the Padres and Phillies.

Right now ESPN has the brewers' chance of making the playoffs 27%, which seems right. But if they win tomorrow and SD and PHL loses, it could take a healthy jump up.

It ain't over until it's over, and it won't be over until at least the end of the weekend.

 

[MrTPlush]

Oh it’s far from over, but they have a huge advantage. Of course those percentages don’t take into the chances of a tie…which is more than possible.

[wntrtxn21]

Since there are tie-breakers now, I think all the odds makers take into account equal records. ESPN is right around where almost everybody has the Brewers' chances at the playoffs, 25%.  3 behind with 11 games to go. The Phillies have the Braves for the next 2, then the Cubs for 3, the Nats for 4, and the Astros (who will be playing for little or nothing) for 3.  The Padres have the Rockies for 2, the Dodgers for 3, the White Sox for 3, and the Giants for 3. I never thought I'd be a Cubs or Dodgers fan, but I am now until the end of the season.

[brewcrewdue80]

The trade would have been fine had Lamet not been dfa waived or whatever. How the team acquires Ruiz and keeps Davis vs Lamet is an epic fail. 1 in the same.

Hader is better than Rogers but Lamet would have been better for the depth of the RP at the time.  I honestly feel Ruiz is at best a quad-A OF. So you get to Gasser for Hader at this stage for the trade of best RP last 3+yes at the point of the trade. Absolutely fleeced and while we believe in Stearns the team should honestly let Arnold go. He's the GM. Stearns can retake the GM role while they find a new hire.

[MrTPlush]

Erm, what does Matt Arnold have to do with this? This is on Stearn’s regardless of what your opinion is.

[Jopal78]

Don’t look now but over his last 10 2/3 innings, Hader has given up: 5 H, 2 BB, 13K and one earned run. 
 

This trade probably didnt make a difference in the Division race, but given the recent late inning failures, it absolutely will end up costing them the 3rd wild card spot. 

[mtsportsfan]

On 9/24/2022 at 12:52 PM, brewcrewdue80 said:

The trade would have been fine had Lamet not been dfa waived or whatever. How the team acquires Ruiz and keeps Davis vs Lamet is an epic fail. 1 in the same.

Hader is better than Rogers but Lamet would have been better for the depth of the RP at the time.  I honestly feel Ruiz is at best a quad-A OF. So you get to Gasser for Hader at this stage for the trade of best RP last 3+yes at the point of the trade. Absolutely fleeced and while we believe in Stearns the team should honestly let Arnold go. He's the GM. Stearns can retake the GM role while they find a new hire.

Don't see how you could say the trade was fine !  Hader had a rough patch in the beginning and he now seems to be the Hader we knew .  

How in the world do you trade one of the best relievers in the game when you are in a tight play off race ? Not only that but you help a direct competitor  with not only Hader but you basically helped them get Soto , Drury and Bell by not asking for a higher return on Hader and then taking Laments salary off the books for them !

Our front office basically gave up on this season for the future .   I get the Hader trade , in the off season ! Instead of adding bats that we needed badly they did next too nothing . meanwhile the cards add pitching that they needed and here we are , fighting for the last wild card watching our team not hitting in clutch situations and our closer being very inconsistent !

 

[brewers888]

Stearns has done a very good job overall since taking over but he has been nothing short of awful since at least the 2021 trade deadline and the Hader trade was as bad as it gets.

[brewers888]

1 minute ago, mtsportsfan said:

Don't see how you could say the trade was fine !  Hader had a rough patch in the beginning and he now seems to be the Hader we knew .  

How in the world do you trade one of the best relievers in the game when you are in a tight play off race ? Not only that but you help a direct competitor  with not only Hader but you basically helped them get Soto , Drury and Bell by not asking for a higher return on Hader and then taking Laments salary off the books for them !

Our front office basically gave up on this season for the future .   I get the Hader trade , in the off season ! Instead of adding bats that we needed badly they did next too nothing . meanwhile the cards add pitching that they needed and here we are , fighting for the last wild card watching our team not hitting in clutch situations and our closer being very inconsistent !

 

We were a first place team that essentially waived the white flag on the season.

[michael1960]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Don’t look now but over his last 10 2/3 innings, Hader has given up: 5 H, 2 BB, 13K and one earned run. 
 

This trade probably didnt make a difference in the Division race, but given the recent late inning failures, it absolutely will end up costing them the 3rd wild card spot. 

I think it did make a difference. The players are professionals. They know this is a business. Still, that trade seemed to take away some of the team's identity and energy. They haven't been the same team.

Like a lot of people, I was really surprised by the move, even if Hader had been having some control issues and giving up home runs. It felt like there must have been a clubhouse issue? 

Looking forward to seeing Gasser in the lineup someday, just for his name. I hope he's a flamethrower.

[Axman59]

David Stearns killed this team at the deadline. If I owned the Brewers he would be fired. Inexcusable.

[torts]

12 hours ago, Axman59 said:

David Stearns killed this team at the deadline. If I owned the Brewers he would be fired. Inexcusable.

But you don't, so, he won't.  

 

21 hours ago, brewers888 said:

We were a first place team that essentially waived the white flag on the season.

They were not very good all summer.  They just happen to play in a division of not very good.  After June 1 they were 52-55, they were barely 500 in June/july before trading hader, they were just floating on an insane start of the season when they went 32-19.  So let's not forget that, outside of that hot start, they have been mediocre all year.

[NBBrewFan]

5 hours ago, torts said:

They were not very good all summer.  They just happen to play in a division of not very good.  After June 1 they were 52-55, they were barely 500 in June/july before trading hader, they were just floating on an insane start of the season when they went 32-19.  So let's not forget that, outside of that hot start, they have been mediocre all year.

Bingo.  Multiple posters were questioning the team months ago based on the division they play in and their record since the record start to 2022.  While many thought the team had a winning streak in them that could elevate them to a playoff team, it never materialized. 

While they aren't as bad as we feel at this point, there definitely needs to be changes and some additions including a new closer.  Personally I would have waited until this offseason to move Hader, but it isn't my call.  I think with the current bullpen situation and Hader's performance since the end of August, if the Brewers kept him we would be looking at a Wild Card Round of games instead of a cold winter.  I'm guessing that would be 100% better than how we feel right now.

[torts]

But I get that's not the sexy take of "sterns is a joke, fire him" mentality of some, it's the reality.  They didn't suck because of the deadline, they just didn't get better.  

[dlk9s]

On 10/2/2022 at 6:45 PM, Axman59 said:

David Stearns killed this team at the deadline. If I owned the Brewers he would be fired. Inexcusable.

The trade ended up pretty bad, but come on, man. GM's don't bat 1.000. Stearns has done a wonderful job throughout his Brewers tenure. This move backfired. If he keeps making terrible moves then sure, maybe it's time to move on, but it's not like he intentionally sabotaged the team. He swung and missed.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, dlk9s said:

The trade ended up pretty bad, but come on, man. GM's don't bat 1.000. Stearns has done a wonderful job throughout his Brewers tenure. This move backfired. If he keeps making terrible moves then sure, maybe it's time to move on, but it's not like he intentionally sabotaged the team. He swung and missed.

Yeah, the writing was on the wall before the deadline. After the franchise best 32-18 start they went 25-27 heading into the deadline. Here are the splits from those two runs of games...

04/07-05/30 (32-18) 
PIT: 81 ERA- (4th) | 83 FIP- (2nd) | 8.2 rWAR (4th) | 8.6 fWAR (1st)
OFF: 228 RS (7th) | 103 wRC+ (10th) | 7.0 WAR (7th)
About what what we expected coming into the season, a dominant pitching staff and an above average offense leading to one of the better teams in baseball.

06/01-07/31 (25-27)
PIT: 107 ERA- (18th) | 106 FIP- (21st) | 3.1 rWAR (20th) | 3.1 fWAR (23rd)
OFF: 239 R (12th) | 111 wRC+ (7th) | 9.9 WAR (6th)
Offense mostly held serve adding 8 points of wRC+ and almost 3 WAR, though run scoring fell off a little relative to the rest of the league. Pitching in the tank. Hader missing time and giving up runs in bunches instead of putting up all zeroes the main culprit (+1.5 rWAR first 50, -1.0 rWAR next 52). During this stretch the pitching staff essentially consisted of four guys, Burnes (1.6 rWAR), Williams (1.6 rWAR), Woddruff (1.5 rWAR) and Box (0.7 rWAR). Our fifth best pitcher during this stretch was Jandel Gustave (0.3 rWAR), that pretty much says it all.

Throw in the rest of the season to this point (28-30 record post deadline) and the offense at 720 RS (10th) | 103 wRC+ (11th) | 23.5 WAR (8th) has mostly met or exceeded expectations relative to last year's 738 RS (11th) | 98 wRC+ (19th) | 18.8 WAR (15th).

Pitching on the other hand went from 83 ERA- (3rd) | 87 FIP- (3rd) | 26.4 rWAR (3rd) | 23.4 fWAR (3rd) in 2021 down to 95 ERA- (7th) | 98 FIP- (14th) | 15.0 rWAR (14th) | 14.5 fWAR (14th). The league ranking in ERA- is fine, but still a 12 point drop from last year's mark and when you throw in the unearned runs the overall run prevention unit is over 11 wins behind 2021.

Sure, a better deadline could have bought a couple two tree extra wins, but ultimately Hader has put up -0.9 rWAR for SD and Bush/Rogers have combined to put up -0.9 rWAR for us, so at least we got Gasser/Ruiz to replace Kelly/Peters.

Ultimately the Brewers missed the playoffs due to a number of factors, but it's hard for me to chalk up the majority of the blame to anything other than the foibles of pitching.

We returned 11 of our top 13 pitchers from that 2021 staff that was 3rd best in MLB across the board, losing only Hunter Strickland and Brett Anderson. Those eleven returning pitchers - Woodruff, Burnes, Freddy, Houser, Lauer, Suter, Boxberger, Hader, Williams, Ashby and Cousins - combined to throw 1,064 innings totaling 30.0 rWAR in 2021. Those same 11 pitchers have thrown 1,025 innings this year tallying only 16.7 rWAR.

I just don't see the math on how all the other moves or non-moves can add up to a difference greater than that.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, dlk9s said:

The trade ended up pretty bad, but come on, man. GM's don't bat 1.000. Stearns has done a wonderful job throughout his Brewers tenure. This move backfired. If he keeps making terrible moves then sure, maybe it's time to move on, but it's not like he intentionally sabotaged the team. He swung and missed.

I agree with you, but the interesting thing Stearns has kind of a poor history at the trade deadline. 

In '17 they technically were on the periphery and he added Swarzak who pitched well. 

In '18 he added Moustakas who was ok in '18, but Jonathan Schoop was a disaster,  Soria didn't impress either and was bad in the post season. 

In '19 he picked up Pomeranz and Jordan Lyles who both went on  nice little rolls for them. 

In '21 it was a disaster in Daniel Norris and Jon Curtiss, then Eduardo Escobar who was good.

Then in '22 there was Rogers, Rosenthal and Bush, the first two disasters and the 3rd a disappointment. 

Players he acquired at the deadline that improved the team at the time: Swarzak, Pomeranz, Lyles, Escobar, maybe Moustakas (5)

Players who didn't make a difference or were a bust: Schoop, Soria, Norris, Curtiss, Rogers, Rosenthal and Bush (7).

[igor67]

That's an interesting analysis Jopal. Outside the deadline things have definitely tended to work out better and that is enough trades that I would hope internally they are trying to figure out why they tend to keep getting players who underperform after being traded for in contrast to other earlier season or offseason acquisitions.

[torts]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

I agree with you, but the interesting thing Stearns has kind of a poor history at the trade deadline. 

In '17 they technically were on the periphery and he added Swarzak who pitched well. 

In '18 he added Moustakas who was ok in '18, but Jonathan Schoop was a disaster,  Soria didn't impress either and was bad in the post season. 

In '19 he picked up Pomeranz and Jordan Lyles who both went on  nice little rolls for them. 

In '21 it was a disaster in Daniel Norris and Jon Curtiss, then Eduardo Escobar who was good.

Then in '22 there was Rogers, Rosenthal and Bush, the first two disasters and the 3rd a disappointment. 

Players he acquired at the deadline that improved the team at the time: Swarzak, Pomeranz, Lyles, Escobar, maybe Moustakas (5)

Players who didn't make a difference or were a bust: Schoop, Soria, Norris, Curtiss, Rogers, Rosenthal and Bush (7).

Has anyone looked at other GMs to see how he compares?  Maybe less thab 50% is normal.  Looking at his success or failures in a vacuum doesn't do much, ya know?