Brewers - Arizona Fall League

[Robocaller]

On 9/20/2022 at 10:23 PM, Robocaller said:

Hummel has played (poorly) in 63 MLB games this year. Can a guy on a ML roster go to the AFL?

I knew I shouldn't have ragged on him. He contributed mightily to beating the Brewers. 

[Robocaller]

3 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

No biggie at this point as they just got started but I hope Black moves around the diamond more than he has so far.

There doesn't seem much value playing him at CF; I think we have that position covered. 2B/3B (and maybe 1B) would be good. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, Robocaller said:

There doesn't seem much value playing him at CF; I think we have that position covered. 2B/3B (and maybe 1B) would be good. 

Don't remember who, but someone once brought up the idea of Black getting some run at 1B. I think it would be a terrific idea.

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Don't remember who, but someone once brought up the idea of Black getting some run at 1B. I think it would be a terrific idea.

Not sure you are referring to me or not, but I have wanted Black to get time at 1B. He's 6'2" so he has the frame to be a 1B. He wouldn't be the typical offensive profile of a 1B but honestly as long as you have production you can make up that power at another position. I think Black profiles to be pretty similar to Brendan Donovan of the Cardinals after comparing their batted ball profiles and BB and K rates. Donovan had a 129 wRC+ this season. If Black could put up numbers like that it doesn't matter if he doesn't have the typical power output of a 1B.

[wiguy94]

So I just was going through the AZFL stats while doing a week 1 check-in for the Brewers' prospects and wanted to see what the AZFL CS rate is in comparison to Quero. The overall league CS rate is 20.3%. Quero was 4/8 for a 50% CS rate. If you take Quero out of the sample then the rest of the league's CS rate is  16.1%. Quero is just in a class of his own at the AZFL when it comes to shutting down base stealers. 

[Ro Mueller]

9 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

So I just was going through the AZFL stats while doing a week 1 check-in for the Brewers' prospects and wanted to see what the AZFL CS rate is in comparison to Quero. The overall league CS rate is 20.3%. Quero was 4/8 for a 50% CS rate. If you take Quero out of the sample then the rest of the league's CS rate is  16.1%. Quero is just in a class of his own at the AZFL when it comes to shutting down base stealers. 

He’s gunned down both attempts tonight as well. Jeferson Quero statement game: 4-for-5, 2 doubles, 2 RBIs, thrown out 2 base stealers.

[Joseph Zarr]

1 hour ago, damuelle said:

He’s gunned down both attempts tonight as well. Jeferson Quero statement game: 4-for-5, 2 doubles, 2 RBIs, thrown out 2 base stealers.

[nate82]

If Quero continues like this and he puts up another good year next year he should be a top 50 prospect.  Catchers that do what he has been doing normally sky rocket up the rankings especially when they are playing as good as he has been defensively and offensively.  

[Joseph Zarr]

3 minutes ago, nate82 said:

If Quero continues like this and he puts up another good year next year he should be a top 50 prospect.  Catchers that do what he has been doing normally sky rocket up the rankings especially when they are playing as good as he has been defensively and offensively.  

I said it in September: I didn't care where MLB Pipeline moved Frelick (up or down - Fangraphs Top 100 be damnned). In this here community of fans, we know his worth. What I was pining for and have been pining for is Quero 'should' be in the Top 100 today. Before the AZL commenced. It just doesn't matter - to me, he's simply showcasing what I already know. What those in the organization who work with these young men (I see you, Joe Ayrault) know: he's the best catching prospect in some time and, frankly, he might be the best Brewers catching prospect ever. He is that good. It's undeniable when you watch him play every day.

[markedman5]

 

[CheeseheadInQC]

I typically hate assigning major league players as floors for guys who are still in the minors, especially those like Quero who haven’t hit AA. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult to see him not at least having Martin Maldonado’s career, with a ceiling much higher.

[Matt Breen]

I really would like to see more of Black - assuming he's healthy. I think he can be our 2nd baseman by 2024 if he has the opportunity.

[wiguy94]

6 hours ago, damuelle said:

He’s gunned down both attempts tonight as well. Jeferson Quero statement game: 4-for-5, 2 doubles, 2 RBIs, thrown out 2 base stealers.

One of the doubles was a bit of a cheapie on a dribbler down the 1B line but the second one was rocked. 106.6 EV. He’s making a name for himself down there right now. 

[UpandIn]

On 10/8/2022 at 2:07 PM, markedman5 said:

 

I could really see the Brewers going into the 2024 season with 3 top ~20 prospects including the #1 prospect, a top ~10 in Quero and then...who knows with Misiorowski. Obviously insanely premature to speculate, but I don't think it's a real stretch with the first two and with a kid coming out at 6'7 190 already firing 102 and a "hellacious" 86 MPH CB, those are the types who tend to do well on prospect rankings for good reason. 

There are also a few other obvious players who could find themselves pretty high on prospect lists, but those 3(and maybe Wiemer depending on what 2023 looks like in the OF in Milwaukee+his season in Nashville) have very loud tools and they are putting them to very good use. 

On 10/9/2022 at 3:08 PM, Jim French Stepstool said:

 

No biggie at this point as they just got started but I hope Black moves around the diamond more than he has so far.

Of course...seems unlikely he'll be playing much OF for the Brewers...and we've had perpetual problems filling 1B since Prince left and 3B since...I guess Aram? He was always productive offensively and...for the most part reliable(though not exactly Brooks Robinson at the Hot Corner). 

3B doesn't sound like it's his ideal position, but if he can hit and has good hands, a less than stellar arm isn't a deal breaker(as Luis Urias can attest to). Ideally it'll be Devanney and then Black can slide in at 2B or 1B, but that bat+his walks should play all over the place. 

[UpandIn]

On 10/9/2022 at 9:19 PM, Jim French Stepstool said:

Don't remember who, but someone once brought up the idea of Black getting some run at 1B. I think it would be a terrific idea.

I've mentioned this, but I've also seen quite a few others. I think it's just a general idea leaning into what the Brewers tend to do. They want players who are versatile. With Adames at SS, Turang at 2B, or even if you don't have Adames, it'd still make more sense to get Black games at 1st, 3rd as well as his more familiar position of 2B.

I'm far less concerned about "value" at a position in terms of power #'s. If you put someone who can hit ~.280/.365/.430 but they only hit 15 HRs...so what? Willy could hit 30 at SS, you could get good power numbers from CF/RF or elsewhere. 

It feels like it'll work itself out, but the Brewers should be proactive so they're not sitting there with a viable prospect ready to play, but he's blocked at 2B/CF. Not exactly a pressing issue at the moment, but as we get a clearer picture next year of who'll be around and who may not be, he'll hopefully have enough opportunities in Biloxi and then Nashville to get some play there. 

[Jim Goulart]

 

[Spencer Michaelis]

6 hours ago, UpandIn said:

On 10/9/2022 at 3:08 PM, Jim French Stepstool said:

 

No biggie at this point as they just got started but I hope Black moves around the diamond more than he has so far.

Of course...seems unlikely he'll be playing much OF for the Brewers...and we've had perpetual problems filling 1B since Prince left and 3B since...I guess Aram? He was always productive offensively and...for the most part reliable(though not exactly Brooks Robinson at the Hot Corner). 

3B doesn't sound like it's his ideal position, but if he can hit and has good hands, a less than stellar arm isn't a deal breaker(as Luis Urias can attest to). Ideally it'll be Devanney and then Black can slide in at 2B or 1B, but that bat+his walks should play all over the place. 

With Black, I've mentioned it before, but I honestly think first is the only infield position he will be capable of playing as he gets closer to the majors. Unless the defense at second has improved significantly, he's got pretty iffy defensive actions there (it looks really clunky) and his arm won't hold up at third. I think it's likely he's a first baseman who can play outfield (he actually looked quite good in center with the T-Rats). Hopefully he's decent enough to handle second in a pinch. That's about as much as I'm hoping for. His value is going to be in the bat.

[Joseph Zarr]

2 hours ago, Smichaelis9 said:

With Black, I've mentioned it before, but I honestly think first is the only infield position he will be capable of playing as he gets closer to the majors. Unless the defense at second has improved significantly, he's got pretty iffy defensive actions there (it looks really clunky) and his arm won't hold up at third. I think it's likely he's a first baseman who can play outfield (he actually looked quite good in center with the T-Rats). Hopefully he's decent enough to handle second in a pinch. That's about as much as I'm hoping for. His value is going to be in the bat.

I personally think the organization views him primarily as a 2B - as noted in the interview, the plan was to keep getting him reps in the OF but he will also play 2B (apparently) in the AFL. I think part of that ‘clunkiness’ is he is simply bigger and taller than the position customarily is used to. He’s not a great 2B by any measure defensively but, imho, he’s not a negative at the position (he certainly didn’t negatively affect outcomes for the T-Rats in the fielding department) and with the bat he becomes an automatic net positive. Let me put it another way: He certainly isn’t a Keston Hiura level liability there and he’s every bit as good as Valerio. Although, I agree with you and others that he has the size and the profile to ultimately be given a shot at 1B. 

[Brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, Smichaelis9 said:

With Black, I've mentioned it before, but I honestly think first is the only infield position he will be capable of playing as he gets closer to the majors. Unless the defense at second has improved significantly, he's got pretty iffy defensive actions there (it looks really clunky) and his arm won't hold up at third. I think it's likely he's a first baseman who can play outfield (he actually looked quite good in center with the T-Rats). Hopefully he's decent enough to handle second in a pinch. That's about as much as I'm hoping for. His value is going to be in the bat.

Black seems like a Cardinals-type player, to me. Hopefully without the annoying superiority complex and generally punchable face. Given their undeniable record of success, that is a good thing. 

Also, agreed that 1B is the position for him moving forward, though I'm sure they will also want him to retain the ability to play 2B and corner OF. 

[Joseph Zarr]

Nice write-up on Jefferson Quero by MLB’s Jonathan Mayo:

Quero Blows Out Candles with Big Day in AFL

[Jim French Stepstool]

20 hours ago, UpandIn said:

 

I'm far less concerned about "value" at a position in terms of power #'s. If you put someone who can hit ~.280/.365/.430 but they only hit 15 HRs...so what? Willy could hit 30 at SS, you could get good power numbers from CF/RF or elsewhere. 

 

Agree with the above. Nowadays you can get power from just about any spot on the field.

[wiguy94]

Was a pretty good day in the AZFL today for the Brewers players.

Ryan Middendorf's line was 2 IP, H, 0 R, BB, 5 SO with a 45% CSW rate.

Zavier Warren's line was 4-6 with 2 RBI, 3 R. He made ridiculously good contact today. Here are his EV and LA.

1st AB - 106 EV, 9 LA single
2nd AB - 108.4 EV, 9 LA single
4th AB - 106.1 EV, 4 LA single
5th AB - 97.8 EV, 16 LA single
6th AB - 87.9 EV, 22 LA lineout

5 Balls in play from Warren and all of them were LD with 4 being hard hit and 3 having EV over 105. He's been great in Arizona so far.

Tyler Black didn't get the results today going 1-7 with 3 SO, but he got the ball in the air today which he wasn't doing much of in his first 5 games, his best contact was a 104.6 EV, 10 LA single.

Black and Warren combined for 4 of the 10 hardest hit baseballs today.

[ARobsBrewCrew]

You can add RHP Luis Contreras to the list of farmhands partaking in the Arizona Fall League.  The reliever was in uniform today and should take the mound within the coming days.

[wiguy94]

14 minutes ago, ARobsBrewCrew said:

You can add RHP Luis Contreras to the list of farmhands partaking in the Arizona Fall League.  The reliever was in uniform today and should take the mound within the coming days.

Is he taking Henderson's spot? I had read Henderson hasn't reported yet because of soreness

[UpandIn]

16 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I personally think the organization views him primarily as a 2B - as noted in the interview, the plan was to keep getting him reps in the OF but he will also play 2B (apparently) in the AFL. I think part of that ‘clunkiness’ is he is simply bigger and taller than the position customarily is used to. He’s not a great 2B by any measure defensively but, imho, he’s not a negative at the position (he certainly didn’t negatively affect outcomes for the T-Rats in the fielding department) and with the bat he becomes an automatic net positive. Let me put it another way: He certainly isn’t a Keston Hiura level liability there and he’s every bit as good as Valerio. Although, I agree with you and others that he has the size and the profile to ultimately be given a shot at 1B. 

I didn't think he looked bad at 3rd. He's not going to make those plays diving into foul territory and then getting up and firing it 96 over to 1B, but he looked fine. It was a pretty small sample size, but I'm not worried about him finding a spot. His bat should play if we've got the OF covered with the young OF prospects we've got.