Game Thread (9/27/2022): Cardinals (Mikolas) at Brewers (Houser) - 6:40 PM CDT

[Pugger]

There's your DH candidate with a weak dribbler to the 2nd baseman.  

[Pugger]

1 minute ago, GoBrewers1982 said:

Alright, I can’t figure out to directly reply to someone’s post, so I am just going to post this. Yelich signed a nine year contract extension !!!! Nine more years of this crap! He has absolutely no arm for the outfield, so he needs to be just a DH, but he can’t hit! It was a $215M extension, huge small market team killer!! Huge! Huge! Huge! Albatross! 

Nine more?  Good lord.  

[Nola Beery]

2 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

He has a wRC+ of 110 which puts him above average.  He is still a good baserunner with 17 SB/2 CS, but he is a massive liability as the LF or any other FIELDER. He is suited for DH which takes away his biggest liability and plays to his strength.  Have him leadoff (he still has the best OBP on the team) and be the DH with Frelick in either CF or LF depending on who is best in CF or RF between Mitchell and Frelick.

He's a decent leadoff guy.  But he used to be... and is paid to be... an RBI threat, not a guy for whom a walk is a great plate appearance.

[Simba2020]

1 minute ago, Pugger said:

Nine more?  Good lord.  

It's "only" 6 more years. Pretty safe to say his 2029 option is getting bought out at this point.

[yourout]

Just now, Nola Beery said:

He's a decent leadoff guy.  But he used to be... and is paid to be... an RBI threat, not a guy for whom a walk is a great plate appearance.

Sadly that is the best we can hope for.

[NBBrewFan]

5 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

It's only going to get worse.

No it doesn't. Yes over the 7 years there will be decline, but he's literally been the same hitter since 2020 so his age 28, 29, 30 are the same.  There isn't a clear path yet to where his performance will go.  He could be fine for the next 3 years maybe a bump up without fielding (as the DH) before he starts to decline and who knows what his trajectory will be.  As the full time DH I'd say he could easily still have a 3 fWAR year next year with age related declines after that. 

Pujols put up 5.9 fWAR for $240M dollars - that's an albatross. 

[yfinn6]

1 minute ago, Nola Beery said:

He's a decent leadoff guy.  But he used to be... and is paid to be... an RBI threat, not a guy for whom a walk is a great plate appearance.

Yeah, this is pretty much it. He's being paid to be a middle of the order guy and he's playing like a slap hitter who occasionally runs into one. This contract is terrible, no matter how you want to break down the random stats. It's going to hurt this club for the entirety of the contract and it looked like Yelich was a "sure thing" but it's another lesson for a small market club that there's no such thing. 

[NBBrewFan]

2 minutes ago, Nola Beery said:

He's a decent leadoff guy.  But he used to be... and is paid to be... an RBI threat, not a guy for whom a walk is a great plate appearance.

Did anywhere in my post and other posts did I say he was meeting the expectations when they signed him?  Given his salary and his performance he isn't far from what an average FA puts up.  Depending on his age related decline it could be worse, but at present he isn't a massive failure or an albatross.

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, GoBrewers1982 said:

Alright, I can’t figure out to directly reply to someone’s post, so I am just going to post this. Yelich signed a nine year contract extension !!!! Nine more years of this crap! He has absolutely no arm for the outfield, so he needs to be just a DH, but he can’t hit! It was a $215M extension, huge small market team killer!! Huge! Huge! Huge! Albatross! 

The extension was signed three years ago, so only six more years.

The $215M announced value included the two years still remaining on his original extension from MIA, after this season there is 162.5 million remaining.

Yelich has a full no trade clause & while he may not have earned his full paycheck, he has put up 2.5 WAR so far this year.

”Lighten up, Francis” -Sgt. Hulka

[nate82]

15 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I feel like he can at least foul pitches off that are up and away and just straight up. Against up and in he just can't touch it. Mikolas located his pitches and dispatched Hiura like he was nothing.

That is Hiura’s whiff rate at the top of the zone.  Lowest is 46% at middle up.  Up and in and up and away are basically an almost guaranteed whiff in the zone.  

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

No it doesn't. Yes over the 7 years there will be decline, but he's literally been the same hitter since 2020 so his age 28, 29, 30 are the same.  There isn't a clear path yet to where his performance will go.  He could be fine for the next 3 years maybe a bump up without fielding (as the DH) before he starts to decline and who knows what his trajectory will be.  As the full time DH I'd say he could easily still have a 3 fWAR year next year with age related declines after that. 

Pujols put up 5.9 fWAR for $240M dollars - that's an albatross. 

Yelich's contract is an albatross for the Brewers. He's taking up 20% of our payroll and giving us 5.8% of our team WAR. That's debilitating for a small market team.

[NBBrewFan]

2 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

The extension was signed three years ago, so only six more years.

The $215M announced value included the two years still remaining on his original extension from MIA, after this season there is 162.5 million remaining.

Yelich has a full no trade clause & while he may not have earned his full paycheck, he has put up 2.5 WAR so far this year.

”Lighten up, Francis” -Sgt. Hulka

Kris Bryant signed a $182M contract with the Rockies.  He's put up 0.6 fWAR this year (age 30) and has missed significant time with an injury this year and in 2020.  

Nick Castallanos signed a $100M contract with the Phillies.  He's been worse than McCutcheon with a MINUS 0.7 fWAR this year and he should be a DH because he's a butcher in the field.

ETC.

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, nate82 said:

That is Hiura’s whiff rate at the top of the zone.  Lowest is 46% at middle up.  Up and in and up and away are basically an almost guaranteed whiff in the zone.  

That's just nasty. Thanks for giving the data. Just need to show that picture when people are upset he doesn't play more.

[yfinn6]

3 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

Kris Bryant signed a $182M contract with the Rockies.  He's put up 0.6 fWAR this year (age 30) and has missed significant time with an injury this year and in 2020.  

Nick Castallanos signed a $100M contract with the Phillies.  He's been worse than McCutcheon with a MINUS 0.7 fWAR this year and he should be a DH because he's a butcher in the field.

ETC.

Can those teams absorb a bad contract easier than the Brewers? Yes or no. 

 

Edit: are they also shorter than the Yelich contract? 

[Nola Beery]

1 minute ago, NBBrewFan said:

Kris Bryant signed a $182M contract with the Rockies.  He's put up 0.6 fWAR this year (age 30) and has missed significant time with an injury this year and in 2020.  

Nick Castallanos signed a $100M contract with the Phillies.  He's been worse than McCutcheon with a MINUS 0.7 fWAR this year and he should be a DH because he's a butcher in the field.

ETC.

Ok.but such whattaboutery does not make Yelich a better player. 

[yourout]

Ive seen enough for tonight.

Even if Philly lost every game left the Crew would still find a way to end up a game short.

 

[NBBrewFan]

Just now, Nola Beery said:

Ok.but such whattaboutery does not make Yelich a better player. 

Well if I knew what would do it I would sell it to the Brewers for $10M and season tickets for 20 years, but since nobody has the answer we can only hope he figures it out at some point.  He was pretty much this type of hitter when he was with the Marlins (a little better) then he took off so something clicked in 2018.  Let's hope it clicks again.

[Jopal78]

They bought Yelich at the top of the market price, so what? Clearly ‘18 and ‘19 are outliers but stats-wise he’s still the same guy they traded for in February of ‘18.

Had they not extended Yelich and he then continued to put up video game numbers and walked as a free agent, there would be an equal number of people incensed he wasn’t given an extension. 

[wibadgers23]

Between the injuries, ineffective play in the 2nd half, and questionable moves at the deadline, it just wasn’t our year.

[yfinn6]

3 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

They bought Yelich at the top of the market price, so what? Clearly ‘18 and ‘19 are outliers but stats-wise he’s still the same guy they traded for in February of ‘18.

Had they not extended Yelich and he then continued to put up video game numbers and walked as a free agent, there would be an equal number of people incensed he wasn’t given an extension. 

They wouldn't have let him walk as a FA; they would have flipped him for something IF he were still producing like he did in 18 and 19. 

[Nola Beery]

4 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

They bought Yelich at the top of the market price, so what? Clearly ‘18 and ‘19 are outliers but stats-wise he’s still the same guy they traded for in February of ‘18.

Had they not extended Yelich and he then continued to put up video game numbers and walked as a free agent, there would be an equal number of people incensed he wasn’t given an extension. 

Alas. That's probably true. But when you think you've got "that guy" and you don't, it's still a bummer. 

[sveumrules]

1 minute ago, wibadgers23 said:

Between the injuries, ineffective play in the 2nd half, and questionable moves at the deadline, it just wasn’t our year.

Last year Burnes, Woodruff, Freddy, Houser, Lauer, Suter, Hader, Boxberger, Williams, Ashby and Cousins were 11 of our top 13 pitchers by IP.

They combined for 1,064 IP and 30.0 rWAR.

This season those same 11 returning pitchers combined for 976 IP and 15.8 rWAR entering tonight.

That’s the season. The vagaries of pitching.

[yourout]

5 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

They bought Yelich at the top of the market price, so what? Clearly ‘18 and ‘19 are outliers but stats-wise he’s still the same guy they traded for in February of ‘18.

Had they not extended Yelich and he then continued to put up video game numbers and walked as a free agent, there would be an equal number of people incensed he wasn’t given an extension. 

Not me... Too big of a risk for a small market team to take. 

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

They bought Yelich at the top of the market price, so what? Clearly ‘18 and ‘19 are outliers but stats-wise he’s still the same guy they traded for in February of ‘18.

Had they not extended Yelich and he then continued to put up video game numbers and walked as a free agent, there would be an equal number of people incensed he wasn’t given an extension. 

Yelich is definitely not the same guy now that he was when we traded for him. He's a similar style but worse version. Yelich 4 full seasons in Miami he averaged 4.1 bWAR per 650 PA. In 21 and 22 Yelich is averaging 2.1 bWAR per 650 PA.

[sveumrules]

Phillies lost.

THE DREAM IS STILL ALIVE