Finding the 2023 Starting Catcher

[Eye Black]

Who should be the Brewers 2023 primary catcher? What is the best option for someone from outside the organization?

The current Brewers front office seems to value having an offensive minded backstop that they can make passable defensively. They ponied up a large one year contract for Yasmani Grandal, traded for Omar Narvaez, and even signed Pedro Severino as a bat first catching option last offseason. While Victor Caratini may end up part of the equation for 2023, I expect the Brewers to invest in a catching option from outside the organization.

First the free agent options at catcher per FanGraphs:

 

Next is the list of the 30 MLB catchers this past season that accrued more than 0.5 fWAR. Some possible trade candidates on the upper half of this list include Sean Murphy, Jonah Heim, Danny Jansen, and William Contreras. 

 

So if the Brewers do indeed go outside of the organization to bring in a catcher for 2023 who do you think it should be, and what do you project it would cost in terms of either a trade return or free agent contract?

[Eye Black]

Personally I would love to see the Brewers land Danny Jansen, but I think the cost would be steep with likely two players among the Brewers top ten prospects headlining the return. I actually think Jonah Heim could be a sneaky good pickup at catcher for a player that will be just 27 years old at the start of next season, but that would be more on the strength of his defense than offense.

Sean Murphy is probably the clear best answer in terms of a player that would have a true impact at the catching position, but it would also cost an awful lot to acquire the 28 year old. The good news is he would be under contract for three seasons, so he would likely solve the organizational need at the catcher position for the foreseeable future. 

[Brewcrew82]

Danny Jansen just makes too much sense IMO. Wisconsin-native. Young, controllable, potential all-star, and helps with this team's OBP and K issues. Blocked by an all-star in Kirk and a top 5 prospect in Moreno. 

In terms of cost, it won't be as excessive as one might think given that the Jays have little choice but to trade him this offseason and he's never played more than 107 games in a season. I think Mitchell/Wiemer and Rodriguez (the pitcher) can get you there, and that that would be among the Jays' best offers. Would I prefer not to trade one of our young outfielders? Of course. But you have to give to get and we have a brewing overload at the position between Frelick, Mitchell, Ruiz, Wiemer, and (sooner than you think) Chourio. 

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, Eye Black said:

Personally I would love to see the Brewers land Danny Jansen, but I think the cost would be steep with likely two players among the Brewers top ten prospects headlining the return. I actually think Jonah Heim could be a sneaky good pickup at catcher for a player that will be just 27 years old at the start of next season, but that would be more on the strength of his defense than offense.

Sean Murphy is probably the clear best answer in terms of a player that would have a true impact at the catching position, but it would also cost an awful lot to acquire the 28 year old. The good news is he would be under contract through 3 seasons, so he would likely solve the organizational need at the catcher position for the foreseeable future. 

Murphy will cost wayyy more than Jansen. In that case, you're looking at dealing something like Frelick, Wiemer, Gasser, and Black. 

[Eye Black]

Yeah, I wasn’t suggesting that Jansen would cost more than Murphy to acquire, Murphy would definitely cost more in prospect capital. On the flip side there is probably much more certainty in getting solid production on both sides of the ball with Sean Murphy. 

[Robocaller]

In my "blueprint" I had us acquiring young catchers. One (Logan O'Hoppe) would be ready on day one, and a second could get a late-season callup.

Those FA don't look promising.  Maybe as ST invites? Sign a couple, throw them against the wall, and see what sticks?

I think Feliciano is going to get a shot to make the team.

 

 

[Brewcrew82]

54 minutes ago, Eye Black said:

Yeah, I wasn’t suggesting that Jansen would cost more than Murphy to acquire, Murphy would definitely cost more in prospect capital. On the flip side there is probably much more certainty in getting solid production on both sides of the ball with Sean Murphy. 

Gotcha. Yeah, there's a little more assurance with Murphy given that he's been Oakland's primary catcher for the past couple of seasons, but I really like the combination of reduced prospect capital and upside with Jansen. If given the chance to be an everyday catcher, I think Jansen could turn out to be among the best offensive catchers in the game (he led all MLB catchers in wRC+ this season). And he hasn't exactly been slouch on defense, either, before taking into account our recent history with developing catcher defense (i.e. Narvaez). A potential all-star catcher, imho, that won't require the typical payment for an all-star catcher.

[Harold Hutchison]

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

In my "blueprint" I had us acquiring young catchers. One (Logan O'Hoppe) would be ready on day one, and a second could get a late-season callup.

Those FA don't look promising.  Maybe as ST invites? Sign a couple, throw them against the wall, and see what sticks?

I think Feliciano is going to get a shot to make the team.

 

 

Caratini/Feliciano was my pick. His bat rebounded in AAA, and he comes cheap. 

[Brewcrew82]

10 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

Caratini/Feliciano was my pick. His bat rebounded in AAA, and he comes cheap. 

Did he rebound, though? His offensive numbers in AAA this year were improved from 2021 (in which he only played 39 games), but they still were nothing to write home about. And that's just one half of the game. He remains a HUGE liability on defense. I can't see the Brewers relying on Feliciano to play a meaningful role this season. 

[sveumrules]

The AAA outfield depth and need for a legit MLB catcher definitely seem like potential offseason dance partners.

This past season, Oakland OF hit for an 87 wRC+ and tallied 2.1 WAR, both ranking 25th in MLB. They could definitely use an infusion of young MLB-ready talent on the grass.

The A’s 2B/SS were equally bad. Extend Adames, pick up Wong’s option, include Turang in a Murphy deal?

Could also see a scenario where the Rangers sign Contreras then include Heim as a piece in a Burnes/Woodruff trade.

Agree that Jansen probably hits that sweet spot of not costing quite as much to acquire, but still being an upgrade even if he is only like a 110 wRC+ guy in a larger role than he has had with Toronto.

[UpandIn]

I don't want to give up Wiemer or Frelick in a trade, obviously not Chourio. 

Wiemer because we have a lot of hitters who proviles to be high OB guys who put the ball in place, but not a lot of guys who hit for power...even fewer yet who hit for power from the right side and have his combination of tools. I also think he's a bit underrated, particularly using the tool you're using to come to this trade valuation. Taylor and Wiemer have roughly identical values. Taylor is Wiemer's floor...I think. Whereas his upside is .275/.360/.520 with plus defense and 30/30. 

I'd target one of ATL's catchers. D'Arnaud seems more likely...though he'd be costly as well...Williams Contreras would probably be buying high.

 

I'd be fine running it back with Omar at ~5M for next year. I think he's giong to have a big bounce back year next year.

[Robocaller]

39 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

I'd be fine running it back with Omar at ~5M for next year. I think he's giong to have a big bounce back year next year.

I don't think there's any way he gets that after this past year. $3.5M would be too much for him, but I don't have an issue bringing him back at that price or lower. If Vazquez takes a significant pay cut, he'd be an option.

 

[Redd Vencher]

3 hours ago, Robocaller said:

I don't think there's any way he gets that after this past year. $3.5M would be too much for him, but I don't have an issue bringing him back at that price or lower. If Vazquez takes a significant pay cut, he'd be an option.

 

He was worth more than 1 WAR in a little 296 PA. He's probably the #2 C on the market behind Contreras. Manny Pina got $4 M AAV last offseason, so I think $3.5 M is underestimating what it'd take to resign.

[SF70]

13 hours ago, Eye Black said:

Who should be the Brewers 2023 primary catcher? What is the best option for someone from outside the organization?

The current Brewers front office seems to value having an offensive minded backstop that they can make passable defensively. They ponied up a large one year contract for Yasmani Grandal, traded for Omar Narvaez, and even signed Pedro Severino as a bat first catching option last offseason. While Victor Caratini may end up part of the equation for 2023, I expect the Brewers to invest in a catching option from outside the organization.

First the free agent options at catcher per FanGraphs:

 

Next is the list of the 30 MLB catchers this past season that accrued more than 0.5 fWAR. Some possible trade candidates on the upper half of this list include Sean Murphy, Jonah Heim, Danny Jansen, and William Contreras. 

 

So if the Brewers do indeed go outside of the organization to bring in a catcher for 2023 who do you think it should be, and what do you project it would cost in terms of either a trade return or free agent contract?

Sign a FA C to pair with Caratini. Keep all the prospects so Renfroe can be traded and Wong let go, freeing up $19M that can be used to acquire Christian Vasquez & Jose Quintana.

Then trade Burnes saving another $12M that can be used to bring-in a stud bullpen arm or 2. 

Too much upside to trade our best prospects, especially after the improvements made by all the second-half of the minors season.

[sveumrules]

7 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I don't want to give up Wiemer or Frelick in a trade, obviously not Chourio. 

Yeah, which OF they end up dealing (if any) will be interesting to see.

Chourio is off the table, I’d imagine.

After that I’d prefer to hold on to Wiemer most because he’s the only AAA guy with plus power.

Frelick, Michell & Ruiz have some redundancies among their skill sets, so dealing one (or two) of them makes the most sense to me.

[Harold Hutchison]

10 hours ago, sveumrules said:

The AAA outfield depth and need for a legit MLB catcher definitely seem like potential offseason dance partners.

This past season, Oakland OF hit for an 87 wRC+ and tallied 2.1 WAR, both ranking 25th in MLB. They could definitely use an infusion of young MLB-ready talent on the grass.

The A’s 2B/SS were equally bad. Extend Adames, pick up Wong’s option, include Turang in a Murphy deal?

Could also see a scenario where the Rangers sign Contreras then include Heim as a piece in a Burnes/Woodruff trade.

Agree that Jansen probably hits that sweet spot of not costing quite as much to acquire, but still being an upgrade even if he is only like a 110 wRC+ guy in a larger role than he has had with Toronto.

I'd probably be okay with moving an outfielder, but very picky as to who goes. Wiemer may be the best trade option, given that Churio is knocking at the door. But I'd also look to move Renfroe in any deal.

Renfroe+Wiemer for Murphy? Yelich in LF, Mitchell on CF, Taylor in RF with Frelick as 4th OF?

Then again, why not give Feliciano a chance to show what he has? We've had him on the 40-man for multiple years.

[Redd Vencher]

36 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Sign a FA C to pair with Caratini. Keep all the prospects so Renfroe can be traded and Wong let go, freeing up $19M that can be used to acquire Christian Vasquez & Jose Quintana.

Then trade Burnes saving another $12M that can be used to bring-in a stud bullpen arm or 2. 

Too much upside to trade our best prospects, especially after the improvements made by all the second-half of the minors season.

Trading Wong and Renfroe for Vazquez and Quintana is pretty big downgrade. This is also ignoring trading Burnes to try and pay relievers.

[Redd Vencher]

6 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

I'd probably be okay with moving an outfielder, but very picky as to who goes. Wiemer may be the best trade option, given that Churio is knocking at the door. But I'd also look to move Renfroe in any deal.

Renfroe+Wiemer for Murphy? Yelich in LF, Mitchell on CF, Taylor in RF with Frelick as 4th OF?

Then again, why not give Feliciano a chance to show what he has? We've had him on the 40-man for multiple years.

Renfroe and Wiemer for Murphy is nowhere near enough. Something like Frelick, Wiemer, Turang, and 4th prospect is what you're going to have to give up.

[Harold Hutchison]

2 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

Renfroe and Wiemer for Murphy is nowhere near enough. Something like Frelick, Wiemer, Turang, and 4th prospect is what you're going to have to give up.

Hard pass on that sort of deal.

Rather ride with Feliciano/Caratini.

[Jopal78]

7 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

He was worth more than 1 WAR in a little 296 PA. He's probably the #2 C on the market behind Contreras. Manny Pina got $4 M AAV last offseason, so I think $3.5 M is underestimating what it'd take to resign.

Sometimes one has to look beyond the metrics. Narvaez had two stints on the IL in '22 and '21. But for the first 81 games of the '21 season he was wholly inept offensively as a Brewer (a sub .600 OPS).  I think he will get a guaranteed contract for 2023, but only because the free agent options at catcher are thin. I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers move on from both Narvaez and Caratini in '23 (keep in mind the Padres--already in the luxury tax--sent some cash along to Milwaukee to move Caratini's 2 million dollar contract).

 

 

[SF70]

4 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

Trading Wong and Renfroe for Vazquez and Quintana is pretty big downgrade. This is also ignoring trading Burnes to try and pay relievers.

Trading Renfroe & Burnes and letting Wong go saves $31M that can be used to bring Peterson back to play 3B or sign Drury for third. Vazquez, Quintana and a HL bullpen arm or 2.

I feel pretty good with Mitchell, Wiemer or Taylor replacing most if not all of Renfroe’s 2.5 WAR, and Urias/Turang replacing Wong’s 3 WAR.

I’ll take 3 GG caliber OF’s, Drury/Peterson at 3B, Adames, Urias/Turang, Tellez, Vazquez with Yelich at DH. 

Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Ashby, Quintana, Houser with a post S2 bullpen having Gasser and Miller/Tiedmann impacting, along with a HL arm joining Williams, Bush, and Uribe.

 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

Trading Renfroe & Burnes and letting Wong go saves $31M that can be used to bring Peterson back to play 3B or sign Drury for third. Vazquez, Quintana and a HL bullpen arm or 2.

I feel pretty good with Mitchell, Wiemer or Taylor replacing most if not all of Renfroe’s 2.5 WAR, and Urias/Turang replacing Wong’s 3 WAR.

I’ll take 3 GG caliber OF’s, Drury/Peterson at 3B, Adames, Urias/Turang, Tellez, Vazquez with Yelich at DH. 

Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Ashby, Quintana, Houser with a post S2 bullpen having Gasser and Miller/Tiedmann impacting, along with a HL arm joining Williams, Bush, and Uribe.

 

If you're trading Burnes to the Blue Jays, might as well just take Moreno/Kirk off their hands rather than paying Vasquez.

"Three GG caliber outfielders"?? To make that kind of a statement, you should at least have a guy who's won one already (Yelich doesn't really count). Of course, Mitchell and Wiemer are great minor league defenders, but they're still largely unproven at the major league level. Taylor is good in the OF, but he's not quite at a GG level. 

Quintana and Drury would be dangerous FA signings for the Brewers given how their careers were trending for several years before this season and the fact that they're both in their thirties. 

Finally, Uribe probably isn't going to be a consideration for the bullpen until the second half. Certainly, they're not going to count on him to play a HL role right away setting up Williams. 

[Brewcrew82]

5 hours ago, clancyphile said:

Hard pass on that sort of deal.

Rather ride with Feliciano/Caratini.

Again, if the Brewers never felt comfortable going with Jacob Nottingham as even the primary backup C, they're almost certainly not ready to go with Feliciano as the catcher alongside Caratini when Feliciano remains a huge liability behind the plate. Especially when the Brewers are built as heavily as they are on pitching and run prevention. 

[wibadgers23]

14 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Again, if the Brewers never felt comfortable going with Jacob Nottingham as even the primary backup C, they're almost certainly not ready to go with Feliciano as the catcher alongside Caratini when Feliciano remains a huge liability behind the plate. Especially when the Brewers are built as heavily as they are on pitching and run prevention. 

Yeah I agree and I get the impression that the Brewers aren’t particularly high on Feliciano. There were plenty of opportunities to bring him up last year and he was up for a whole 2 games. I don’t think he has much of a future in Milwaukee.

[Jim French Stepstool]

I don't have a strong feeling as to who, but I think they wind up acquiring someone via FA who to most fans will be underwhelming. The caveat is if Burnes or Woodruff gets dealt to Toronto with one of their catchers included in the package coming back. Wouldn't bet on Narvaez staying here, but also wouldn't totally rule it out.

Sure would be nice if Feliciano could start to make some defensive headway. Would make a nice bridge to Quero.