Finding the 2023 Starting Catcher

[Brewcrew82]

26 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I don't have a strong feeling as to who, but I think they wind up acquiring someone via FA who to most fans will be underwhelming. The caveat is if Burnes or Woodruff gets dealt to Toronto with one of their catchers included in the package coming back. Wouldn't bet on Narvaez staying here, but also wouldn't totally rule it out.

Sure would be nice if Feliciano could start to make some defensive headway. Would make a nice bridge to Quero.

With how they've apparently cooled Reetz, Feliciano, and Severino, something tells me they're prepared to make an outside addition. Catcher production was too underwhelming last year. 

[SF70]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

If you're trading Burnes to the Blue Jays, might as well just take Moreno/Kirk off their hands rather than paying Vasquez.

"Three GG caliber outfielders"?? To make that kind of a statement, you should at least have a guy who's won one already (Yelich doesn't really count). Of course, Mitchell and Wiemer are great minor league defenders, but they're still largely unproven at the major league level. Taylor is good in the OF, but he's not quite at a GG level. 

Quintana and Drury would be dangerous FA signings for the Brewers given how their careers were trending for several years before this season and the fact that they're both in their thirties. 

Finally, Uribe probably isn't going to be a consideration for the bullpen until the second half. Certainly, they're not going to count on him to play a HL role right away setting up Williams. 

An outfield of Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer, L to R would rival Arizona’s for speed and defense. 

I like Drury, but Peterson will also work at third. I like Quintana, but a Cueto would work as well. Point is — an innings-eating veteran starter to replace most of Burnes’s innings so the team can trade him and get a return that sets the team up for years of success.

Vazquez is a big upgrade at C over what we’ve had recently and would probably take a 2/3 year contract to land. If a catcher is a part of the Burnes return then fine, but I wouldn’t demand a Moreno or a Cartaya, and would rather get better and or more pitching returned, but I’m a huge Quero fan.

Agree Uribe will be post S2. 

[nate82]

I think Bart might be an easier get than anyone else that has been mentioned.  Also Bethancourt will be on arb1 in Tampa so he may also be available.  Bethancourt has an estimated $1.8m in arbitration and he played decently for both Oakland and Tampa.  I could also see the Braves shopping d'Arnaud to save some money.  

4 hours ago, SF70 said:

Vazquez is a big upgrade at C over what we’ve had recently and would probably take a 2/3 year contract to land.

Vazquez at 2/3 years is going to be something around $24-36m which puts you around $8-12m a year and I think it will take at least 4-years to get him.  Pina signed a 2-year $8m contract last year with the Braves to be the backup catcher.  Vazquez is going to be double that.  I just don't see Vazquez being worth double to triple what Caratini is worth so signing Vazquez at 2-3 times what Caratini is going to make is just not a wise decision.  If the Brewers could get Vazquez on a deal closer to $4m a season sure sign Vazquez but that is not happening.  

[sveumrules]

13 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I think Bart might be an easier get than anyone else that has been mentioned. 

Out of 395 players with at least 400 PAs since 2020 the only two players with a K rate higher than Bart’s 38.0% are Hiura & Maverick Phillips at 38.5%.

I’d probably do Keston straight up for Bart if SF wants to do a challenge trade.

[Redd Vencher]

10 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Sometimes one has to look beyond the metrics. Narvaez had two stints on the IL in '22 and '21. But for the first 81 games of the '21 season he was wholly inept offensively as a Brewer (a sub .600 OPS).  I think he will get a guaranteed contract for 2023, but only because the free agent options at catcher are thin. I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers move on from both Narvaez and Caratini in '23 (keep in mind the Padres--already in the luxury tax--sent some cash along to Milwaukee to move Caratini's 2 million dollar contract).

 

 

I'm not expecting him to command $10 M AAV over 2 or 3 seasons. I just think a 1 year $3.5 M deal is less than what he's actually going to get on the FA market, but we'll just have to wait and see.

[SF70]

8 hours ago, nate82 said:

I think Bart might be an easier get than anyone else that has been mentioned.  Also Bethancourt will be on arb1 in Tampa so he may also be available.  Bethancourt has an estimated $1.8m in arbitration and he played decently for both Oakland and Tampa.  I could also see the Braves shopping d'Arnaud to save some money.  

Vazquez at 2/3 years is going to be something around $24-36m which puts you around $8-12m a year and I think it will take at least 4-years to get him.  Pina signed a 2-year $8m contract last year with the Braves to be the backup catcher.  Vazquez is going to be double that.  I just don't see Vazquez being worth double to triple what Caratini is worth so signing Vazquez at 2-3 times what Caratini is going to make is just not a wise decision.  If the Brewers could get Vazquez on a deal closer to $4m a season sure sign Vazquez but that is not happening.  

I’ll take Vasquez at $8M/year for 3 years, and pass at anything more than that.

[jay87shot]

I like the idea of James McCann or Mitch Garver. The Mets would likely eat most of McCann's salary and a change of scenery would do him well. Garver has always had injury issues but there is a good bat there if he can be managed well. 

Maybe even a guy like Yasmani Grandal if the Sox eat most of his salary. I wouldn't mind a little reclaimation project at the right value.

I think each of those guys could be nice stopgaps until Quero is up. We would also have Feliciano in case of injury or major ineffectiveness.

[Grabkoj]

On 10/25/2022 at 6:47 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

Danny Jansen just makes too much sense IMO. Wisconsin-native. Young, controllable, potential all-star, and helps with this team's OBP and K issues. Blocked by an all-star in Kirk and a top 5 prospect in Moreno. 

In terms of cost, it won't be as excessive as one might think given that the Jays have little choice but to trade him this offseason and he's never played more than 107 games in a season. I think Mitchell/Wiemer and Rodriguez (the pitcher) can get you there, and that that would be among the Jays' best offers. Would I prefer not to trade one of our young outfielders? Of course. But you have to give to get and we have a brewing overload at the position between Frelick, Mitchell, Ruiz, Wiemer, and (sooner than you think) Chourio. 

I think they go via FA or acquire one through a veteran trade 

My guess is Gary Sanchez. They can get him for around $8 million per year which is just $2 million higher than Narvaez 

He had 15 HR and 61 RBI last year which is gold production from a backstop 

They’re still high on Feliciano and Quero in the Minors and they’re 2 years away

Keep the nucleus of young talent for the future 

Brewers Minor League System is coming around very nice 

 

[UpandIn]

20 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

"Three GG caliber outfielders"?? To make that kind of a statement, you should at least have a guy who's won one already (Yelich doesn't really count). Of course, Mitchell and Wiemer are great minor league defenders, but they're still largely unproven at the major league level. Taylor is good in the OF, but he's not quite at a GG level. 

I don't think that's actually too big of a stretch. Defense translates pretty easily from the Minors to the Big Leagues. It's obviously nothing like hitting.

Mitchell was actually a little disappointing last year going back on balls from the limited time he got, but I expect he'll improve as he gets more comfortable. And you'd have guys flanking him who...are very likely to be GG CALIBER defenders. 

This would also require them to hit well enough to get on the field and play obviously and I don't know that Wiemer is going to do that by next year, but...we'll see. 

[jay87shot]

1 hour ago, Grabkoj said:

I think they go via FA or acquire one through a veteran trade 

My guess is Gary Sanchez. They can get him for around $8 million per year which is just $2 million higher than Narvaez 

He had 15 HR and 61 RBI last year which is gold production from a backstop 

They’re still high on Feliciano and Quero in the Minors and they’re 2 years away

Keep the nucleus of young talent for the future 

Brewers Minor League System is coming around very nice 

 

No thank you on Sanchez, .205 BA and high strikeout rates. Also he has been known as a poor defender (although last year wasn't to bad).

 

What about just bring Severino back. Him and Caratini wouldn't be the worst. Not great but passible.

[Redd Vencher]

9 hours ago, SF70 said:

Trading Renfroe & Burnes and letting Wong go saves $31M that can be used to bring Peterson back to play 3B or sign Drury for third. Vazquez, Quintana and a HL bullpen arm or 2.

I feel pretty good with Mitchell, Wiemer or Taylor replacing most if not all of Renfroe’s 2.5 WAR, and Urias/Turang replacing Wong’s 3 WAR.

I’ll take 3 GG caliber OF’s, Drury/Peterson at 3B, Adames, Urias/Turang, Tellez, Vazquez with Yelich at DH. 

Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Ashby, Quintana, Houser with a post S2 bullpen having Gasser and Miller/Tiedmann impacting, along with a HL arm joining Williams, Bush, and Uribe.

 

Obviously, other moves could help offset the difference, but I don't think that's the case here.

I wouldn't mind Drury if the market prices him right, but I just don't think that's going to happen with how thin the 3B market is this year. A career 3.6 fWAR with 3.0 of it coming this season is not something I'd want to clear money to add. Bringing Jace Peterson back isn't replacing anything from this year's roster. 

Taylor shouldn't be included as a guy replacing Renfroe's WAR when he put up 2+ WAR on this year's roster. He's not a guy replacing Renfroe.

Urias put up 2-3 WAR on this years roster. Again, he's not a guy replacing. I don't trust Turang enough offensively to hand over a starting job to him and replace 3 WAR. 

Who are the HL bullpen arms they're signing and at what price? They certainly aren't signing Edwin Diaz. Are you talking about throwing down

Vazquez isn't an improvement over what we got out of the catcher spot last year. I wouldn't mind him if the price was right, but I don't feel confident with the offense being close to as good as it was this year with the moves laid out. It's possible all the OF prospects hit the ground running, but that isn't something I would bet on. The pitching is significantly worse, and we're left in hoping those prospects hit the ground running when they're called up during the season. Unless you manage an extension for Woodruff and Adames, you're better off moving them this offseason as well if this is what you want to do.

[SF70]

1 hour ago, Redd Vencher said:

Obviously, other moves could help offset the difference, but I don't think that's the case here.

I wouldn't mind Drury if the market prices him right, but I just don't think that's going to happen with how thin the 3B market is this year. A career 3.6 fWAR with 3.0 of it coming this season is not something I'd want to clear money to add. Bringing Jace Peterson back isn't replacing anything from this year's roster. 

Taylor shouldn't be included as a guy replacing Renfroe's WAR when he put up 2+ WAR on this year's roster. He's not a guy replacing Renfroe.

Urias put up 2-3 WAR on this years roster. Again, he's not a guy replacing. I don't trust Turang enough offensively to hand over a starting job to him and replace 3 WAR. 

Who are the HL bullpen arms they're signing and at what price? They certainly aren't signing Edwin Diaz. Are you talking about throwing down

Vazquez isn't an improvement over what we got out of the catcher spot last year. I wouldn't mind him if the price was right, but I don't feel confident with the offense being close to as good as it was this year with the moves laid out. It's possible all the OF prospects hit the ground running, but that isn't something I would bet on. The pitching is significantly worse, and we're left in hoping those prospects hit the ground running when they're called up during the season. Unless you manage an extension for Woodruff and Adames, you're better off moving them this offseason as well if this is what you want to do.

They have 4 rookie OF’s plus Taylor to fill CF & RF. Not unreasonable to think they can get the production they need from the aforementioned to not need Renfroe and his $11M salary.

Chaffin & Hand are a couple of LH HL bullpen arms that this team could possibly sign in the $5-$8M range. There are others. IMO, they need 4 at the backend they can count on to hold, and right now they only have 2. 

Vasquez is a pretty big upgrade offensively over what we got from Narvaez last year.

I’ll take an IF with Peterson at 3B, Adames at SS, Turang at 2B and if he can’t hit then Urias can play 2B. That’s enough protection for me.

Im not trading Burnes, Woodruff and Adames in the same offseason if possible, especially Burnes and Woodruff. Trading one hurts the return on the other.

[Jopal78]

4 hours ago, Grabkoj said:

 

They’re still high on Feliciano and Quero in the Minors and they’re 2 years away

 

 

The Brewers have already used two of Feliciano's three options, its now or never time. He was a prospect of some renown at one point, but who knows-- it sort of seems like the club sees Feliciano as merely organizational depth. 

[UpandIn]

55 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Im not trading Burnes, Woodruff and Adames in the same offseason if possible, especially Burnes and Woodruff. Trading one hurts the return on the other.

This is important point. Maybe you get your ask for both of them, but...it's unlikely. And there's also a very strong FA pitching group coming up. 

[Brewcrew82]

21 hours ago, UpandIn said:

This is important point. Maybe you get your ask for both of them, but...it's unlikely. And there's also a very strong FA pitching group coming up. 

Not to mention trading all three of them in the same offseason would send us into a full-fledged rebuild regardless of who we get in return. We're not making the playoffs or even sniffing the playoffs in that scenario. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

The Brewers have already used two of Feliciano's three options, its now or never time. He was a prospect of some renown at one point, but who knows-- it sort of seems like the club sees Feliciano as merely organizational depth. 

They likely view him in the same way they viewed Jacob Nottingham. Expendable organizational depth that they don't want to depend upon for a meaningful role. 

[Devinep]

Springer just had surgery because he was hurt AGAIN. With his history, age, and Toronto’s RHB-heaviness, I think a Mitchell+mid-level prospect for Danny Jansen trade just makes too much sense for both sides 

[SF70]

9 hours ago, Devinep said:

Springer just had surgery because he was hurt AGAIN. With his history, age, and Toronto’s RHB-heaviness, I think a Mitchell+mid-level prospect for Danny Jansen trade just makes too much sense for both sides 

Unless the Brewers think otherwise, trading a potential superstar talent like Mitchell should not happen. Ruiz, yes, Mitchell, Wiemer, Frelick, no.

Go the FA route in acquiring a C, if a deal can’t be worked-out that doesn’t require the 3 aforementioned OF’s. 

[nate82]

How about trading Woodruff to the Angels for Logan O'Hoppe, Ky Bush and Alejandro Hidalgo.  Brewers get the Angels 1, 4 and 22 ranked prospects.  O'Hoppe is MLB ready at catcher and could split time with Caratini in '23 and Feliciano in '24.

This gives the Angels a good starting pitcher in Woodruff and the Brewers get a young catcher a promising LHP and an intriguing RHP.  

[Brewcrew82]

3 hours ago, SF70 said:

Unless the Brewers think otherwise, trading a potential superstar talent like Mitchell should not happen. Ruiz, yes, Mitchell, Wiemer, Frelick, no.

Go the FA route in acquiring a C, if a deal can’t be worked-out that doesn’t require the 3 aforementioned OF’s. 

I like Mitchell as much as anyone, but he's still got a ways to go before becoming a superstar. His K rate during his short MLB stint is concerning and he has yet to tap into his raw power, with his swing plane continuing to hold him back in that regard. 

Also, we are not going to have enough room for all of these outfielders. One of them will eventually have to be traded. With Chourio rocketing through the minors, Frelick the best pure hitter, and Wiemer the ideal RF candidate, Mitchell does become expendable if we can get a valuable piece in return. Jansen would certainly be that as a potential all-star upgrade over Caratini/Feliciano. 

[Redd Vencher]

9 hours ago, SF70 said:

They have 4 rookie OF’s plus Taylor to fill CF & RF. Not unreasonable to think they can get the production they need from the aforementioned to not need Renfroe and his $11M salary.

Chaffin & Hand are a couple of LH HL bullpen arms that this team could possibly sign in the $5-$8M range. There are others. IMO, they need 4 at the backend they can count on to hold, and right now they only have 2. 

Vasquez is a pretty big upgrade offensively over what we got from Narvaez last year.

I’ll take an IF with Peterson at 3B, Adames at SS, Turang at 2B and if he can’t hit then Urias can play 2B. That’s enough protection for me.

Im not trading Burnes, Woodruff and Adames in the same offseason if possible, especially Burnes and Woodruff. Trading one hurts the return on the other.

It's always a risk with prospects hitting the ground running. It's certainly possible that group can cobble it together, but I don't know if a team trying to compete should dump a vet who has performed well. If you were proposing an enough of an upgrade elsewhere, I wouldn't pushing on this part.

Chafin is not a FA, so we can't sign him. Hand's peripherals the last 2 seasons have been trash. I want no part of $5-$8M dollars for him.

If Vazquez hits like he did last year, I don't disagree. The issue with Vazquez is he's not shown last year is sustainable for him. Certainly not enough to give him 3 years $8 M AAV. It wouldn't be the worse thing in the world to overspend at that rate, and I'm not opposed to him as a player overall. This would just be shuffling the deck chairs, though. Vazquez had a 1.6 fWAR in 130 more PA than Narvaez' 1.2 fWAR last season.

With those 4 guys, why would Urias be on the bench for insurance, and not the starter when he's posted a 111 wRC+ the last 2 seasons 4.4 fWAR 6.2 bWAR. Peterson's 97 wRC+ is not the type of offense you want for your starting 3B no matter how well he plays defense. Turang is a guy who'll likely struggle to get close to a 100 wRC+.

I suggested trading those guys because trading Burnes and giving the rest of the team the roster you proposed does not look like a winning a roster, so you might as well trade the rest and go into rebuild assuming extensions weren't reached with them.

[nate82]

20 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

Chafin is not a FA, so we can't sign him. Hand's peripherals the last 2 seasons have been trash. I want no part of $5-$8M dollars for him.

Chafin has a player option for the '23 season at $6.5m.  I think he will exercise that option as I don't think he will get more than the $6.5m and I don't think he will get more than 1-2 years.  Maybe he declines his option if he thinks he can get more than 1-2 years.  

[jay87shot]

Brewers   Position Players WAR=24.9  Pitchers WAR=9.2  Total= 34.1

Padres     Position Players WAR=26.6  Pitchers WAR=11.6  Total 38.2

Phillies     Position Players WAR=21.0  Pitchers WAR=21.4 Total=41.4

Cards       Position Players WAR=37.2  Pitchers WAR=9.2   Total=46.4

Mets        Position Players WAR=26.8  Pitchers WAR=21.6 Total=48.4

Braves    Position Players WAR= 27.8  Pitchers WAR=22.5 Total=50.3

Dodgers  Position Players WAR=32.6 Pitchers WAR=28.9 Total= 61.5

We don't need to replace the WAR at every position necessarily, but cumulatively it looks like we need minimum +6 WAR to have a stronger shot at the playoffs. I would guess having a healthy Peralta and Woodruff would have added 3-5 WAR alone. Looking at this it might be wiser to add some better arms and maybe a key bat because anyone who watched the games knows we need one solid middle of the order bat.

 

[Brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

How about trading Woodruff to the Angels for Logan O'Hoppe, Ky Bush and Alejandro Hidalgo.  Brewers get the Angels 1, 4 and 22 ranked prospects.  O'Hoppe is MLB ready at catcher and could split time with Caratini in '23 and Feliciano in '24.

This gives the Angels a good starting pitcher in Woodruff and the Brewers get a young catcher a promising LHP and an intriguing RHP.  

Not enough imo. It will get you fairly close on BTV (though still not all the way there), but I think it has Woodruff pegged too low in this case. There's no reason why there should be a 40 MTV difference btw Burnes and Woodruff. Burnes obviously should be higher, but not by that much considering they both have the same amount of control and a similar fWAR since 2019.

It is better to use the Castillo trade as the measuring stick here, which is at least two top 100 prospects. O'Hoppe is one and is similar to Marte, but then you need another one in addition, which would have to be Neto. Unless the FO is higher than the prospect evaluators on Bush like they were with Gasser.

[Brewcrew82]

42 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Brewers   Position Players WAR=24.9  Pitchers WAR=9.2  Total= 34.1

Padres     Position Players WAR=26.6  Pitchers WAR=11.6  Total 38.2

Phillies     Position Players WAR=21.0  Pitchers WAR=21.4 Total=41.4

Cards       Position Players WAR=37.2  Pitchers WAR=9.2   Total=46.4

Mets        Position Players WAR=26.8  Pitchers WAR=21.6 Total=48.4

Braves    Position Players WAR= 27.8  Pitchers WAR=22.5 Total=50.3

Dodgers  Position Players WAR=32.6 Pitchers WAR=28.9 Total= 61.5

We don't need to replace the WAR at every position necessarily, but cumulatively it looks like we need minimum +6 WAR to have a stronger shot at the playoffs. I would guess having a healthy Peralta and Woodruff would have added 3-5 WAR alone. Looking at this it might be wiser to add some better arms and maybe a key bat because anyone who watched the games knows we need one solid middle of the order bat.

 

I think most people are expecting the pitching to perform more in line with 2021 assuming a healthy rotation. There's also been the talk by the FO of adding more pitching depth as a kind of insurance policy that we didn't have this past season when we had to trot out Alexander, Chi Chi, etc. We'll probably need another high-leverage bullpen arm or two, in addition, but we're pretty well set there to compete at the level other NL contenders. 

I agree that what we lack compared to other contenders are top of the line bats. Guys that can you can comfortably slot in at the top of the order who will OPS above .800, getting on base and knocking other runners in. The Phillies, for example, will trot out Schwarber, Hoskins, Harper, and Realmuto to start tonight. While we have some guys with speed who can get on base (i.e. Yelich, Frelick?, Mitchell?, etc.), we just don't have the consistent run producers to follow them. How many times this year did we have guys on to lead off an inning only to watch the next couple of guys strikeout or ground out weakly and leave the runners stranded? Just no ability to sustain an inning and produce runs in the absence of a HR. Why I think we need to take a serious look at guys like Jansen, Abreu, etc.