Athletic Top 50 Free Agents

[Roderick]

https://theathletic.com/3751518/2022/11/02/top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983

45. Kolten Wong, 2B, age 32

2022 (Milwaukee Brewers): .251/.339/.430, 3.2 rWAR/2.5 fWAR

Wong’s $10 million option should have been an easy call for the Brewers, but he’s coming off an aberrant year in the field where he was the second-worst defensive second baseman in baseball by Outs Above Average, -9 runs, with trouble on balls in or when he had to move to his right. On the one hand, it was just the second negative OAA of his career, after he was at zero (average) in 2020 and 2021. On the other hand, he’s 32 now, in the age range when defensive ability usually declines, and he’s gone from a 60-65 runner a few years ago to a 40-45 runner now. He did have his best year at the plate by total production and his hard-hit rate, but it was all off right-handers, as he hit just .138/.266/.175 off lefties, by far the worst platoon split he’s had in his career. As a platoon second baseman/DH, he still has value, but it’s quite possible that 2022 was the beginning of the end of his time as a regular, and even a harbinger of future decline. He’s a one-year, $5-8 million guy for me, which feels very surprising given the player he was just a year ago.

 

46. Jace Peterson, UT, age 33

2022 (Milwaukee Brewers): .236/.316/.382, 2.3 rWAR/2.2 fWAR

Peterson had produced only about a win above replacement in his career before 2022, but both WAR methods show him at 2+ for last year because he played plus defense at third base, a position he’d played in just 75 games total through 2021. He more than doubled that with 86 games at the hot corner, and the former shortstop was worth 7 Outs Above Average there, while also bouncing around to second, right field, short, and left. He’s only a regular if you believe in the one-year defensive spike, although every major public defensive metric shows it. He’s never figured out offspeed stuff; he can hit fastballs reasonably well but nothing else, and has below-average power. I like him more as a utility player for a team that anticipates more need at third base, for a year and $8 million or maybe 2/$15 million, but even that is probably an aggressive bet on his glove.

 

[Outlander]

Turang is looking better as an option if Peterson is going to get $8 million. My confidence in him is still shaky. Likely biased since I went to a bunch of home games and couldn't watch road games most of the year but he was an absolutely brutal player at home this year.

[SF70]

Drury at 2 and $5/$6M would be a steal, which is also why I believe that to be too low.

[Jopal78]

Pretty harsh assessment of Kolten Wong to justify the $5-$8 million estimate. Seems bearish especially when even very mediocre free agents are getting 8+ million per. 

[DR28]

That article have us signing anyone?

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

Pretty harsh assessment of Kolten Wong to justify the $5-$8 million estimate. Seems bearish especially when even very mediocre free agents are getting 8+ million per. 

Writers aren't paid to be right, but to generate clicks and reads.  It is bearish, but he did say "worth" and not a prediction of his actual contract. 

[UpandIn]

8 hours ago, SF70 said:

Drury at 2 and $5/$6M would be a steal, which is also why I believe that to be too low.

It's kinda crazy how bad Drury's been for most of his career.

When he was a potential trade target, I went back and looked at how he'd done historically and was definitely surprised. The production did not meet my perception. 

I'd gladly roll the dice at 5-6M per, but I'll guess he gets a 1/10 with a TO for 10. Something in that range. 

Or not, these players are sometimes next to impossible to predict. Jace Peterson...I have a hard time believing he gets 8M per year after going from a AAAA type player for most of his career to one year at age 32 where he puts up 2.3 WAR.

At the same time...I thought he was a pretty big part of this team in 2021. His OB skills were extremely important for that team. So I'd definitely go 2/10 total, maybe throw in one of those 3rd year TOs that's just a way to defer some money. 

[UpandIn]

6 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Pretty harsh assessment of Kolten Wong to justify the $5-$8 million estimate. Seems bearish especially when even very mediocre free agents are getting 8+ million per. 

I'd argued it might be worth it to pick up the option and then trade him rather than eat the 2M and let him walk...but that is obviously a bit risky. 

That said, he appears to be the top 2B on the market...unless the Phillies decline Segura's 17M TO(which is certainly possible). 

Even then, Wong's been a better the last several years by WAR. 

I'd guess they'll just decline the option and go with Turang to save ~7.3M. If he just had an average year defensively, he's likely a 4+ WAR player and it'd be a no-brainer. 

[Redd Vencher]

3 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

I'd argued it might be worth it to pick up the option and then trade him rather than eat the 2M and let him walk...but that is obviously a bit risky. 

That said, he appears to be the top 2B on the market...unless the Phillies decline Segura's 17M TO(which is certainly possible). 

Even then, Wong's been a better the last several years by WAR. 

I'd guess they'll just decline the option and go with Turang to save ~7.3M. If he just had an average year defensively, he's likely a 4+ WAR player and it'd be a no-brainer. 

They shouldn't have any problem trading him if they pick up the option. The defensive metrics need 3000+ innings to be reliable, so you shouldn't overreact to one year of data.

[UpandIn]

4 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

They shouldn't have any problem trading him if they pick up the option. The defensive metrics need 3000+ innings to be reliable, so you shouldn't overreact to one year of data.

That sounds good in theory, but there's little question his value has taken a hit after a season in which he was one of the worst defensive 2B as opposed to if he'd won a GG. 

3000 innings is close to 3 years. Teams aren't going to wait for 3000 innings when things are pointing in the wrong direction(age, speed as the article mentions). 

I hope teams would value him as an above average defender at 2B. I don't think they're going to be overly concerned with the 3000 inning benchmark when making their evaluations though....so I think the risk may not be worth it in exercising his option. 

[Redd Vencher]

15 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

That sounds good in theory, but there's little question his value has taken a hit after a season in which he was one of the worst defensive 2B as opposed to if he'd won a GG. 

3000 innings is close to 3 years. Teams aren't going to wait for 3000 innings when things are pointing in the wrong direction(age, speed as the article mentions). 

I hope teams would value him as an above average defender at 2B. I don't think they're going to be overly concerned with the 3000 inning benchmark when making their evaluations though....so I think the risk may not be worth it in exercising his option. 

They don't have to see him as an above average defender to trade for him, though. He was a 2.5-3.2 WAR player last year. That's easily worth 1 year $10 M. They shouldn't evaluate him as the worst defensive 2B because of 1 season.

[UpandIn]

25 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

They don't have to see him as an above average defender to trade for him, though. He was a 2.5-3.2 WAR player last year. That's easily worth 1 year $10 M. They shouldn't evaluate him as the worst defensive 2B because of 1 season.

I didn't say they should see him as the worst defensive 2nd basemen because of 1 season.

I said;

Quote

That sounds good in theory, but there's little question his value has taken a hit after a season in which he was one of the worst defensive 2B as opposed to if he'd won a GG. 

It's like the actual content goes into someone's head, it gets cut with their own opinion and they repeat what you said how they interpreted and it bares almost no similarity to what was actually said.

Do you deny that if he was coming off another Gold Glove season rather than a terrible defensive season, his value would be higher? And again...never said he should be evaluated as the worst defensive 2B because of 1 season.

 

I don't think Wong is the worst defender. I don't think he's a bad defender. I do think the article makes a good point, the fact that he's 32 and at an age where defensive skills naturally decline and that he's not a 40/45 runner as opposed to a 60/65, that would also contribute to lowering his value. 

You can say you need 3000 innings to properly evaluate a players defensive value, but that's seldom realistic. To start a career, fine. When a player is 32 and his defense has been trending in the wrong direction for a couple years, you need to PROJECT how a player is going to play moving forward. 

[Redd Vencher]

59 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

I didn't say they should see him as the worst defensive 2nd basemen because of 1 season.

I said;

It's like the actual content goes into someone's head, it gets cut with their own opinion and they repeat what you said how they interpreted and it bares almost no similarity to what was actually said.

Do you deny that if he was coming off another Gold Glove season rather than a terrible defensive season, his value would be higher? And again...never said he should be evaluated as the worst defensive 2B because of 1 season.

 

I don't think Wong is the worst defender. I don't think he's a bad defender. I do think the article makes a good point, the fact that he's 32 and at an age where defensive skills naturally decline and that he's not a 40/45 runner as opposed to a 60/65, that would also contribute to lowering his value. 

You can say you need 3000 innings to properly evaluate a players defensive value, but that's seldom realistic. To start a career, fine. When a player is 32 and his defense has been trending in the wrong direction for a couple years, you need to PROJECT how a player is going to play moving forward. 

If he was coming off a season that graded out like his previous seasons defensively, he'd have more value, but that isn't the question at play. A 2.5-3.1 WAR player per 480 PA the last 3 seasons on a 1 year $10 M deal has value in a trade. Nobody has said he's worth a top 100 prospect or 2 at that price and contract length. I suggested C Tom Murphy (1 arb year left), 1B Robert Perez Jr. (Pipeline #21), and RHP Isaiah Campbell (Unranked) from Seattle as a possible return for Kolten Wong in my roster blue print. Wong's 113 wRC+ over the last 2 seasons is tied for 8th with Jake Cronenworth among 2B in the majors, and would provide a significant upgrade over Adam Frazier's 81 wRC+ last year.

As for his defense, please show me where the wrong direction in his defensive ability has gone for years. There doesn't seem to be one in the numbers. You have an above average/good defender and then one uncharacteristically bad year. If all I have to bet on his 2023, average out his 3 years (3 DRS 1.2 UZR -2 OAA) or even do a 5:3:1 weighted average (2 DRS -0.6 UZR -4 OAA) to estimate where his 2023 defense will be. I don't think that defensive line is a negative in a trade.

[UpandIn]

18 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

If he was coming off a season that graded out like his previous seasons defensively, he'd have more value, but that isn't the question at play. A 2.5-3.1 WAR player per 480 PA the last 3 seasons on a 1 year $10 M deal has value in a trade. Nobody has said he's worth a top 100 prospect or 2 at that price and contract length. I suggested C Tom Murphy (1 arb year left), 1B Robert Perez Jr. (Pipeline #21), and RHP Isaiah Campbell (Unranked) from Seattle as a possible return for Kolten Wong in my roster blue print. Wong's 113 wRC+ over the last 2 seasons is tied for 8th with Jake Cronenworth among 2B in the majors, and would provide a significant upgrade over Adam Frazier's 81 wRC+ last year.

As for his defense, please show me where the wrong direction in his defensive ability has gone for years. There doesn't seem to be one in the numbers. You have an above average/good defender and then one uncharacteristically bad year. If all I have to bet on his 2023, average out his 3 years (3 DRS 1.2 UZR -2 OAA) or even do a 5:3:1 weighted average (2 DRS -0.6 UZR -4 OAA) to estimate where his 2023 defense will be. I don't think that defensive line is a negative in a trade.

OAA. 2018 6
2019 3
2020 0
2021 
2022 -9

(FWIW, Fangraphs also shows Wong's defense declining each year since 2018).

Just as it says in the Athletic's piece. 

[UpandIn]

3 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

OAA. 2018 6
2019 3
2020 0
2021 
2022 -9

Just as it says in the Athletics' piece. 

And...just to be clear, I didn't say they shouldn't pick it up or they should. I said it'd be risky.

I argued FOR picking up the option...as opposed to most on the forum, just simply that I didn't think they would. 

Quote

 

I'd argued it might be worth it to pick up the option and then trade him rather than eat the 2M and let him walk...but that is obviously a bit risky. 

That said, he appears to be the top 2B on the market...unless the Phillies decline Segura's 17M TO(which is certainly possible). 

Even then, Wong's been a better the last several years by WAR. 

I'd guess they'll just decline the option and go with Turang to save ~7.3M. If he just had an average year defensively, he's likely a 4+ WAR player and it'd be a no-brainer. 

 

 

[SF70]

7 hours ago, UpandIn said:

And...just to be clear, I didn't say they shouldn't pick it up or they should. I said it'd be risky.

I argued FOR picking up the option...as opposed to most on the forum, just simply that I didn't think they would. 

 

Too risky for this SM team. If the team doesn’t want Wong back it’s an easy non-tender decision.

I believe that ends up being the decision the team makes. With the shift limitations, defensive range and arm strength will be much more important this coming season, and even if the team believes Wong’s defensive yips were an aberration, his rapidly decreasing speed and arm strength aren’t.

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

Too risky for this SM team. If the team doesn’t want Wong back it’s an easy non-tender decision.

I believe that ends up being the decision the team makes. With the shift limitations, defensive range and arm strength will be much more important this coming season, and even if the team believes Wong’s defensive yips were an aberration, his rapidly decreasing speed and arm strength aren’t.

What I was saying is that I thought you could pick it up and then trade him. He's been worth between 5 and 5.9 WAR the past two years(fWar, bWar respectively). So looking at the 2B market(and an overall thin market at both 2B and 3B) I thougth...he'd likely get a deal worth 2-3 years AAV or ~8M. So one year for 10M should be a good deal for a team in need of a 2B. And you might get back a player who's going to be non-tendered that is worth a flier on. Some 28 year old reliever with big velo who just hasn't hit yet. Maybe the Dodgers if they lose Turner or...IDK who. 

But as I explained, I'm starting to think that is just too much of a risk. You could end up being stuck with that and while that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, I'd rather retain Brosseau, Jace Peterson and give time to Brice Turang. So primarily put up SOME combination of Urias, Adames, Turang and Peterson with Brosseau kinda playing all over. 1B/2B/3B. SS or DH in a pinch if you're facing a lefty. 

I also do NOT believe you need 3000 innings. You're talking about way too large of a sample size at this point before determining a players skills are eroding. For a 21 year old, sure. For a diminutive 32 year old? No. 

[Lathund]

I think a big mark against Wong is the fact that he's a 2B only, and one who really struggles against lefties. Meaning he's not a true full-time player, and that he's a player you have to adept the roster to, instead of being one that opens up your roster. 

And this is not a particularly pretty Statcast page. Strong plate discipline, but with coming off a down year defensively, and his offensive surge relying on increased power, you'd be wary of someone outperforming their underlying data. 

 

That being said, he's still a good player. And in a vacuum a 1 year $8m decision to retain him seems clear.. But we're not in a vacuum, and with spending room limited (Unless the budget goes up, which seems unlikely) it's a chance to save $7m+  to use elsewhere, while having a replacement who on paper looks like he can provide similar value (And who can cover SS and CF and probably 3B) it's IMO a pretty easy decision to decline the option and use that money to try to shore up a bigger weakness. I just hope it's not a case of declining it to be able to spend $7m less overall...

[brewmann04]

I would let Wong test FA 

[StearnsFTW]

MLBTR released their top 50 FA with predictions.  They had 4 people predicting, so a total of 200 predictions.

 

Brewers showed up 3 times:

Once for Christian Vazquez (3/27)

Once for Brandon Drury (2/18)

Once for MIchael Brantley (1/15)

I could live with Vazquez, but I wouldn't like the other two much unless we were really going for it payroll-wise (Brantley).

That Drury contract would not make me happy.  I don't buy it with him at all.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/mlb-trade-rumors-top-50-free-agents-predictions-2022-23.html

[Hopper]

On 11/11/2022 at 8:27 AM, StearnsFTW said:

Once for Christian Vazquez (3/27)

Once for Brandon Drury (2/18)

Once for MIchael Brantley (1/15)

 

Vazquez = meh

Drury = major risk/reward type signing

Brantley = HELL NO!  We don't need another vet outfielder for Counsell to mismanage playing time.  Plus, he is like glass, hurt all the time and needs excessive days off even when healthy.

[wibadgers23]

MLB free agency moving at a snail's pace...a tradition like none other.  If this was the NBA, things would have been wrapped up in 2-3 days.

[nate82]

15 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

MLB free agency moving at a snail's pace...a tradition like none other.  If this was the NBA, things would have been wrapped up in 2-3 days.

The winter meetings haven't even occurred yet which is usually when the FA signings and trades start to happen.  The NBA free agency period is quick because of the cap and teams know how much they can and can't spend.  The 10th was also the first day of free agency.  I don't believe there has been much movement on the first day and the second day was a holiday.  It is usually the week before and the week after the winter meetings where everything starts to pick up.  

[wibadgers23]

31 minutes ago, nate82 said:

The winter meetings haven't even occurred yet which is usually when the FA signings and trades start to happen.  The NBA free agency period is quick because of the cap and teams know how much they can and can't spend.  The 10th was also the first day of free agency.  I don't believe there has been much movement on the first day and the second day was a holiday.  It is usually the week before and the week after the winter meetings where everything starts to pick up.  

Good point about the salary cap.  I'm sure that makes a big difference.  Also, tampering seems to be a lot more rampant in the NBA so players and teams are negotiating weeks and probably even months before free agency even starts.

[wibadgers23]

Still some quality free agents out there who would make sense for the Brewers, but the list is dwindling quickly.  Turner, Drury, Chafin, Fulmer, etc are some names that still intrigue me.  If we wait around too long to find the perfect deal, there will be nothing left.