Three-way trade with A's, Braves; Brewers get William Contreras

[wiguy94]

Range Factor is probably the most useless stat I’ve seen. It’s literally put outs plus assists divided by innings played or games played.
 

That does absolutely nothing to measure the quality of plays in CF. It just measure the quantity of plays in CF. It’s pretty much useless as a tool for evaluation because it includes absolutely zero context. 

[Harold Hutchison]

2 hours ago, JosephC said:

If the pro-Lutz crowd wants to bet money that Lutz will amass 150+ plate appearances in the major leagues, I would bet against that and it would take me about 1 nanosecond to make that decision.

 

I'd take it. It may not be with the Brewers, but I could see a rebuilding team using Lutz as a filler (worst case).

[Harold Hutchison]

43 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Range Factor is probably the most useless stat I’ve seen. It’s literally put outs plus assists divided by innings played or games played.
 

That does absolutely nothing to measure the quality of plays in CF. It just measure the quantity of plays in CF. It’s pretty much useless as a tool for evaluation because it includes absolutely zero context. 

I'd disagree. It can tell us something - like how many plays a player makes. Quantity is part of the quality of one's defense. Higher RF can indicate range.

[wiguy94]

50 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

I'd disagree. It can tell us something - like how many plays a player makes. Quantity is part of the quality of one's defense. Higher RF can indicate range.

It could but you literally have no way of knowing with RF making it ultimately useless.

[Harold Hutchison]

3 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

It could but you literally have no way of knowing with RF making it ultimately useless.

Not really. By itself, it is, but when you compare the RFs with other players - either on a team or across a league - I think it gets a bit more value.

For catchers, it doesn't work, given that strikeouts are often scored as putouts for the catcher, and it's utility is limited for first basemen, but for other positions, I think it does work a bit better.

[82brewcrew82]

9 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

It could but you literally have no way of knowing with RF making it ultimately useless.

I agree here, how does the player have any control at all over the volume of opportunities they get.

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

Not really. By itself, it is, but when you compare the RFs with other players - either on a team or across a league - I think it gets a bit more value.

For catchers, it doesn't work, given that strikeouts are often scored as putouts for the catcher, and it's utility is limited for first basemen, but for other positions, I think it does work a bit better.

How does comparing it to teammates make it any better? It still doesn’t show any context.  
 

All the stat shows is how many balls were hit in a players catch radius. It doesn’t show quality of catch, the size of the catch radius.
 

Stats are used to tell stories. The only story RF tells you is roughly how many baseballs were hit in a player’s vicinity. Nothing about the quality of defense they play. 

[CheeseheadInQC]

Maybe I am wrong, but isn’t range factor one of the defensive stats that they used to say only stabilized after a couple of seasons’ worth of data?

[Robocaller]

1 hour ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

I agree here, how does the player have any control at all over the volume of opportunities they get.

If two guys play for the same team, it's reasonable they played against similar competition and with similar pitching.  

 

[82brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

If two guys play for the same team, it's reasonable they played against similar competition and with similar pitching.  

 

But they don't play the same position at the same time.  And that still does not give the individual player any control over how many balls are hit to them.

[Robocaller]

3 minutes ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

But they don't play the same position at the same time.  And that still does not give the individual player any control over how many balls are hit to them.

They don't have to play at the same time. If they play for the same team, they will be getting similar opportunities. Of course, they both need to have a fair number of innings at the position so they'll average out.

I'm not advocating for using RF, just indicating when it is a reasonable stat to look at.

 

[Joseph Zarr]

On 12/13/2022 at 1:42 AM, Robocaller said:

I went to an A's site where a guy was denigrating Ruiz's batted ball stats. Bunts kinda tank batted ball stats, and what, Ruiz did it more than once a week?

Oh, once he got comfortable and was given the proverbial green light  to steal whenever and however, Ruiz nearly did it once a game if my increasingly geezer memory serves correct. BUT, if you consider his power stroke had come back to Earth and considering how absolutely adept he is at laying down realllllly good bunts, Ruiz bunting on is an on base weapon. His capacity to time jumps is fairly ludicrous. 

[Robocaller]

9 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

Oh, once he got comfortable and was given the proverbial green light  to steal whenever and however, Ruiz nearly did it once a game if my increasingly geezer memory serves correct. BUT, if you consider his power stroke had come back to Earth and considering how absolutely adept he is at laying down realllllly good bunts, Ruiz bunting on is an on base weapon. His capacity to time jumps is fairly ludicrous. 

I wish I could do time jumps. I'd go back and tell my 15-17 year-old self a thing or two.  :-)

 

[MrTPlush]

4 hours ago, JosephC said:

If the pro-Lutz crowd wants to bet money that Lutz will amass 150+ plate appearances in the major leagues, I would bet against that and it would take me about 1 nanosecond to make that decision.

 

No one is pro-Lutz. It’s the fact he is a prospect and not some 40 year old journeyman people (alright a single person) is trying to clamor about. 

I don’t get your bet either. You want to bet that a minor league player won’t amass 150 PAs in his career? I could say that about 90%+ of the prospects in our entire minor league system and be right. Not exactly an impressive bet. 

Lutz probably has no useful MLB career. That goes for almost any prospect though and probably for at least half of our Top 10 prospects.

[Robocaller]

9 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

No one is pro-Lutz. It’s the fact he is a prospect and not some 40 year old journeyman people (alright a single person) is trying to clamor about. 

I don’t get your bet either. You want to bet that a minor league player won’t amass 150 PAs in his career? I could say that about 90%+ of the prospects in our entire minor league system and be right. Not exactly an impressive bet. 

Lutz probably has no useful MLB career. That goes for almost any prospect though and probably for at least half of our Top 10 prospects.

I'm fairly sanguine about Lutz. He could have a trajectory like Taylor, a guy who had some early success, stalled, then recovered his career. With Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer (and Chourio coming), he doesn't have to be a CF to be the 4th-5th OF.
He has to have a good 2023 though.

[CheezWizHed]

In our uber-specialized metric based baseball world, any time to take one stat (especially a unique one like RF) to be your hill to die on, you often will. Likewise with scouting reports alone. 

Statistics say a lot of things, but very few give the entire picture.  Take several metrics and combine them with scouting analysis to get a better big picture. 

He certainly has the tools to be in CF, but not the experience.  That seems to be the sum total.  Oakland is banking on his tools and going to give him the experience.  He certainly has far more potential value in CF than he would in LF, so I wouldn't blame Oakland for doing that. 

And FYI, "prospect" simply indicates the persons ability to impact the MLB level.  Age doesn't eliminate someone from being a prospect...it just reduces their prospects of impacting the MLB level. Sometimes I think we use certain words so long, we forget the intent of why they are used that way.  

[monty57]

4 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

And FYI, "prospect" simply indicates the persons ability to impact the MLB level.  Age doesn't eliminate someone from being a prospect...it just reduces their prospects of impacting the MLB level. Sometimes I think we use certain words so long, we forget the intent of why they are used that way.  

Yeah, "prospect" is a pretty broad net. There's a big difference between "The Brewers acquire a prospect" and "The Brewers acquire a Top 10 prospect." 

When I see the first, I'm assuming it's a "for cash considerations" deal. When I see the second, I clear the calendar because I know I'm going to be spending all night reading up on the deal.

Everyone in the minors is a prospect. Few will ever play on a MLB field. But, as I've said a couple of times recently, even guys who play for a few pre-arby seasons are valuable additions, especially to a small revenue team like the Brewers. We need 26 men on the roster, so if someone like Lutz (since he's been brought up) can man a backup OF spot for a season or two at league minimum and save us from spending a few million on a veteran, it's something. 

[mtrebs]

I know Contreras originally tweeted a bunch of broken hearts after the trade. Has he said anything else since then, specifically regarding joining the Brewers? I haven’t seen anything, and even though I understand he’s emotional at the transition, it could be worrisome that he hasn’t referenced the Brewers a few days after the trade happened. 

[brewcrewdue80]

1 hour ago, mtrebs said:

I know Contreras originally tweeted a bunch of broken hearts after the trade. Has he said anything else since then, specifically regarding joining the Brewers? I haven’t seen anything, and even though I understand he’s emotional at the transition, it could be worrisome that he hasn’t referenced the Brewers a few days after the trade happened. 

Just reading too much in to an emotional. Sure he hates being moved from the team or city  but that's business in baseball. Brokenheart worthy would be Hader when he was traded away to a team with less chance at making playoffs than team was currently on.  

Once Contreras catches some of the Brewers pitching he'll get pumped for his future with the team.

[GreatNWwi]

9 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Just reading too much in to an emotional. Sure he hates being moved from the team or city  but that's business in baseball. Brokenheart worthy would be Hader when he was traded away to a team with less chance at making playoffs than team was currently on.  

Once Contreras catches some of the Brewers pitching he'll get pumped for his future with the team.

Let's hope Contreras is not this but I present to you Jonathan Schoop for consideration:

He too was broken hearted upon being traded to the Brewers.

[Austin Tatious]

I doubt that Lutz will be a regular major leaguer. But I left for dead Tyrone Taylor’s major league possibilities and he has proven me wrong.  Players develop at different rates and in different ways.  As I recall Taylor got to AA and AAA and chopped around, seemingly hitting a wall.   We know how that turned out as he’s a solid major league contributor.  

[SeaBass]

3 hours ago, GreatNWwi said:

Let's hope Contreras is not this but I present to you Jonathan Schoop for consideration:

He too was broken hearted upon being traded to the Brewers.

Contreras will have months to adjust his frame of mind plus all of spring training to assimilate into his new team's culture. Schoop was traded at the trade deadline, from his original club and all that familiarity, and pretty much thrown right into the fire with expectations that he would produce and help boost a playoff run.

Also I'd say Contreras' feelings aren't really so much an indictment of the Brewers as it is leaving a Braves club that's right up there with the Dodgers and Mets as top tier WS contenders. Even if we put on the rosiest of rose colored glasses the Brewers are just not on that level right now. Not many teams are.

[CheezWizHed]

There have been many players that have talked about how hard it is to be traded for the first time.  Its a bit like a break-up - they don't want me anymore.  But he has all ST to get to know his new team, coaches, and environment.  

Not everyone is a good fit for every team, but I doubt that will be the case here.

[mtrebs]

To clarify, I’m not worried about him being heartbroken at the trade, I’m more covered that there haven’t been any interviews or any other comments/tweets from his end regarding joining the Brewers. You have thought there would have been someone that interviewed him about it but I haven’t seen anything.

I remember when we acquired Adames. Of course there was some footage of him being teary-eyed at being traded, but within a day or two he was doing interviews and was all on board with joining the Brewers. I was hoping we’d see something similar. 

[mtrebs]

On 12/16/2022 at 1:28 PM, mtrebs said:

To clarify, I’m not worried about him being heartbroken at the trade, I’m more covered that there haven’t been any interviews or any other comments/tweets from his end regarding joining the Brewers. You have thought there would have been someone that interviewed him about it but I haven’t seen anything.

I remember when we acquired Adames. Of course there was some footage of him being teary-eyed at being traded, but within a day or two he was doing interviews and was all on board with joining the Brewers. I was hoping we’d see something similar. 

Bumping this as I still haven’t seen any comments or interviews from Contreras since the trade. I still find that concerning.