Three-way trade with A's, Braves; Brewers get William Contreras

[homer]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

A sacrifice bunt won’t count as an AB. So any bunt resulting in a successful sacrifice is only a PA.

if the player is credited with an AB they either were going for a hit intentionally or they failed miserably at a sacrifice bunt.

 

Right and I can find sacrifice hits (bunts) on baseball reference. What I can't seem to find are just "bunts" whether they are sacrifice or not. If I can find that I can subtract sacrifice bunts and get the number that were bunts for hits (or attempted bunts for hits). Does that make sense?

[wildcat2237]

2 hours ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

One think seems certain after this deal.  No way they keep both Brosseau and Hiura barring injury or another trade.  Contreras figures to DH on most days he's not catching, and that means a third catcher likely sticks.  My guess is they'll rotate Feliciano and Henry for that role.

I have very little doubt one of these guys is gone. I would think its Hiura with his poor glove and $2 million salary. 

[sveumrules]

17 minutes ago, homer said:

Right and I can find sacrifice hits (bunts) on baseball reference. What I can't seem to find are just "bunts" whether they are sacrifice or not. If I can find that I can subtract sacrifice bunts and get the number that were bunts for hits (or attempted bunts for hits). Does that make sense?

FanGraphs has BU (bunts) and BUH (bunt hits) headers under the "More Batted Ball" tab on the player pages. This particular tab doesn't show up on the leaderboards though.

They also have BUH% under the "Batted Ball" tab which does show up on their leaderboards.

EDIT: looks like BUH does show up on the Batted Ball leaderboards as well. Juan Pierre at 217 (34% success rate) has the most since 2002. Carlos Gomez is 4th at 105 (42.3% success rate)...

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=1000&type=2&season=2022&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2002-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=12,d

[TURBO]

2 hours ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

One think seems certain after this deal.  No way they keep both Brosseau and Hiura barring injury or another trade.  Contreras figures to DH on most days he's not catching, and that means a third catcher likely sticks.  My guess is they'll rotate Feliciano and Henry for that role.

I just don't see them carrying 3 catchers on a daily basis.

[homer]

18 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

FanGraphs has BU (bunts) and BUH (bunt hits) headers under the "More Batted Ball" tab on the player pages. This particular tab doesn't show up on the leaderboards though.

They also have BUH% under the "Batted Ball" tab which does show up on their leaderboards.

EDIT: looks like BUH does show up on the Batted Ball leaderboards as well. Juan Pierre at 217 (34% success rate) has the most since 2002. Carlos Gomez is 4th at 105 (42.3% success rate)...

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=1000&type=2&season=2022&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2002-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=12,d

Great thanks. Too bad they don't track it at the minor league level but I guess that would be asking a lot. According to that data, Ruiz had one bunt for a hit and one attempt last year in the bigs.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/esteury-ruiz/21780/stats#batted-ball

[UpandIn]

3 hours ago, jakedood said:

I have to disagree with the last bit

 

I think to demonstrate the Brewers as a force, they'll need Winker to be really performing at a very high level again, and to Keep Taylor but move on Winker would seem very strange.

Also seems very optimistic to suggest that Taylor/Weimer outperform Winker to that extent, Yelich finds a way to get a little further out in front of him to utilise his exit velos, and two ROY candidates all together, just a lot of things needing to go right there to trade a DH with a potential to hit at 850-950 OPS

I actually think Mitchell may struggle due to the "LA" swing which rarely reaches and performs well at the majors, and Weimer possibly has the highest ceiling (Bar Chourio)

Just cant see it, though even having contreras DH for LH starters and Winker for RH starters is such an asset

I'm with you...with the sole exception of the Mitchell LA thing. He's got a level swing. I personally don't think adding the loft to it makes much sense at this point as I think THAT seldom works out. If a guy hits for average, gets on base, can steal bases, screw the launch angle. This is what the Brewers are going for after all, right? Lefties who can hit for average and get on base? He's gotta cut his K rate way down, but I'm not real worried about that just yet. 

Anyway, if Winker comes back next year...just to his career averages, there's absolutely no reason to move him. If he doesn't, well...then there's still none because who'd want him?

If Wiemer and Taylor can produce next year...AWESOME. They can play RF and give us the RHed bats we need. That'd ideally be in addition to, not in subtraction of Winker. They're very different. Winker is a DH only. 

Yelich getting more out in front? Yelich just needs to get the ball in the air more and...well, it's been 3 years and I don't see it changing. I think his BA goes up a bit next year just like a lot of players. 50 year low in BA in MLB forced these changes. It'll help us, but it'll help a lot of players. 

Taylor is a 4th or 5th OFer who is not a very good hitter and he's not a great defender. 

 

In a perfect world, Wiemer takes the RF position and has a huge rookie season, but his swing, the holes in it. He may struggle to adjust to MLB pitching. 

[monty57]

2 hours ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

One think seems certain after this deal.  No way they keep both Brosseau and Hiura barring injury or another trade.  Contreras figures to DH on most days he's not catching, and that means a third catcher likely sticks.  My guess is they'll rotate Feliciano and Henry for that role.

There is no reason for Hiura to be on the roster. I was surprised they offered him arbitration, as I saw no role for him after last season, and there is really no spot for him with the additions they've made so far this off-season.

C - Contreras
1B - Tellez
2B - Turang
SS - Adames
3B - Urias
LF - Yelich
CF - Mitchell/Frelick
RF - Mitchell/Frelick
DH - Winker

Bench

Caratini (backup catcher)
Brosseau (1B/2B/3B who hits LHP well)
Taylor (RH bat who plays all three OF positions)
Toro or Hiura 

A bad defender who should only be used to pinch hit vs RHP doesn't seem too valuable, especially when 6 of the 9 regular starters are left-handed hitters. Hopefully, they'll find someone who will take him in trade, even if we get little in return, just to clear the $2M or so we'd otherwise have to pay him. I would much prefer Brosseau and Toro on the bench over Hiura.

 

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, monty57 said:

I thought maybe it was just rose-colored glasses, but I liked Ruiz since we acquired him. He's fast, and apparently re-worked his swing which led to vastly improved offensive numbers. He was moved off of second base because of "heavy hands," so he's still raw in the OF, but scouts seem to think he should be able to stick at CF once he gets more experience there.

That said, I still had him as our fourth best OF of the AAA bunch. Frelick and Mitchell are also high OBP guys with speed, and they have a longer track record of good offensive numbers, while there's a chance that Ruiz just had one fluky good season. Wiemer is more of a power guy, but he was also probably ahead of Ruiz on the depth chart. Meanwhile, our "potential Juan Soto-talent" is sitting in AA and it looks like he'll be in Milwaukee fairly soon. Oh, and we have a high-priced LF in Milwaukee who isn't going anywhere.

So, Ruiz is a talented prospect I like, but he didn't have a clear shot to the majors in Milwaukee. It made sense to trade him. That Arnold was able to get a 24-year-old who plays the position of Milwaukee's greatest need, and was an All Star in his rookie season is amazing. We needed a catcher... check. We needed a power RH bat... check. We needed someone who could hit LHP... check. We need pre-arby guys with team control... check. Oh, we also need bullpen help, so Arnold had them throw in a couple relievers. 

I hope Ruiz has a nice career, but even if he does, this was a trade Arnold had to take advantage of. The Brewers are a much better team now and for the next few years. Well done.

Agreed. I don't care if in 10 years we look back and Arnold has a big negative WAR from this trade. If you use the benefit of hindsight, this game would be easy.

At this time, right now, this trade made so much sense, it seems too good to be true.

Maybe NOW we can stop hearing about this Hader trade? 

[JosephC]

1 hour ago, tmwiese55 said:

This seems so lopsided in our favor it has me thinking through what we might be missing as outsiders.  I guess the first thing I can think of is why didn't these other teams want Contreras?   Basically why is Atlanta so desperate to trade for a C when they have one like this, plus I think D'arnaud is still there for a year or two.  If Oak is trading their good C who's close to FA wouldn't they want a young controlled guy like this back?

 Is it just the weak D, do they think his hitting last year was a fluke, personality/attitude?  Can someone in tune with prospects give info on how he was viewed coming up? Such as was he always considered a top prospect or did this year last year kind of surprise everyone?  I don't know, this seems too good to be true. 

Only real concerning stat that I could find is that Contreras makes contact 68.4% of the time when he swings.  At the MLB level, that is better than what he had done previously.  But 68.4% is the 15th worst number of the 246 players that had 350+ MLB at-bats last year, so he's in the bottom 7%.

Here are the 14 players that finished lower, just looking at batting average and on-base percentage-

Joey Gallo = .160/.280

Chris Taylor = .221/.304

Christopher Morel = .235/.308

Luke Voit = .226/.308

J.D. Davis = .248/.340

Avisail Garcia = .224/.266

Kole Calhoun = .196/.257

Franmil Reyes = .221/.273

Giancarlo Stanton = .211/.297

Oneil Cruz = .233/.294

Patrick Wisdom = .207/.298

Javier Baez = .238/.278

Bobby Dalbec = .215/.283

Teoscar Hernandez = .267/.316

Lots of really low on-base percentages there.  Maybe the Braves saw him as having a problem with getting on base in the future base on his current swing-and-miss rate.

[LaprilOne]

This is fun!  The Brewers heat up the Hot Stove League along with Atlanta!  How great to react to something positive, fun, and hopefully part of a needed upward direction for the Crew.  It is also fun to read optimistic Brewers  talk, rather than what often happens during a slow, dark and cold winter. 

[MrTPlush]

28 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Agreed. I don't care if in 10 years we look back and Arnold has a big negative WAR from this trade. If you use the benefit of hindsight, this game would be easy.

At this time, right now, this trade made so much sense, it seems too good to be true.

Maybe NOW we can stop hearing about this Hader trade? 

I don’t really agree with that. It is the job of him and his staff to evaluate talent. If they end up with a big fat negative WAR from this trade, that’s on him. Using that logic are the other GMs total idiots regardless of what their players do in relation? Even if they get multiple HOFers out of it?

I wouldn’t blame him in 5 years if Contreras has some freak shoulder injury and becomes a shell of the hitter he is now or can’t be behind the plate due to something like an injury. That you can’t predict at all right now.
 

That being said it will be hard to lose this trade. We have Contreras for 5 years, so we basically aren’t giving up any control. The odds Ruiz out produces Contreras over his team control are not overly likely. And of course we have so many up and coming OFers, even if Ruiz has a slightly better 5-6 years I think we will have plenty of guys roaming to OF that we won’t miss him at all.

On another note, acquiring a pre-army guy, I hope we can maybe go out and try to find another way to improve the offense. Winker’s potential upside is great and Contreras helps greatly at a position of need. If Arnold adds another bay it will be one heck of an off-season.

[monty57]

17 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

I'm with you...with the sole exception of the Mitchell LA thing. He's got a level swing. I personally don't think adding the loft to it makes much sense at this point as I think THAT seldom works out. If a guy hits for average, gets on base, can steal bases, screw the launch angle. This is what the Brewers are going for after all, right? Lefties who can hit for average and get on base? He's gotta cut his K rate way down, but I'm not real worried about that just yet. 

Anyway, if Winker comes back next year...just to his career averages, there's absolutely no reason to move him. If he doesn't, well...then there's still none because who'd want him?

If Wiemer and Taylor can produce next year...AWESOME. They can play RF and give us the RHed bats we need. That'd ideally be in addition to, not in subtraction of Winker. They're very different. Winker is a DH only. 

Yelich getting more out in front? Yelich just needs to get the ball in the air more and...well, it's been 3 years and I don't see it changing. I think his BA goes up a bit next year just like a lot of players. 50 year low in BA in MLB forced these changes. It'll help us, but it'll help a lot of players. 

Taylor is a 4th or 5th OFer who is not a very good hitter and he's not a great defender. 

 

In a perfect world, Wiemer takes the RF position and has a huge rookie season, but his swing, the holes in it. He may struggle to adjust to MLB pitching. 

I'm missing something here. I agree with you on Winker. I think he played injured last year, as the previous two years he was one of the best hitters in baseball. If he's healthy, I hope for closer to the 140-ish wRC+ guy he was prior to last year. If that happens, he will be the DH nearly every day.

That means Yelich will be our everyday LF. Unless things go really wrong this year, and Winker is traded at the deadline, Yelich's transition to DH will be in 2024, not 2023.

That leaves CF and RF. I think that will be Mitchell and Frelick, with Taylor as the backup. I guess it's possible they call up Wiemer and leave Frelick in AAA, but one of Mitchell, Frelick or Wiemer will very likely start the year in AAA, and I'd guess that will be Wiemer. 

Wiemer will get his debut when someone gets hurt, but I think his shot at a starting role will be 2024, when Yelich likely moves to DH. His opportunity may be limited, as Chourio will likely be in the majors at some point in 2024, and at the rate he's going, none of Frelick, Mitchell or Wiemer will block him. My guess at that time will be that Chourio will play nearly everyday, and Frelick, Mitchell and Wiemer will split time at the other two spots, but a lot can happen between now and then.

To topic, we will still have our catcher position locked down, because we just filled that for the next five years! That we cleared up the aforementioned logjam to some degree in order to fill that catching spot made a lot of sense. We should now have our entire OF, Catcher, and shortstop all filled for the next six years with talented young players. We still have a lot of people set to leave after '24, but we're starting to see the guys who will be the "new core" going forward. 

I like it when a team operates with a long-term outlook.

[owbc]

34 minutes ago, wildcat2237 said:

I have very little doubt one of these guys is gone. I would think its Hiura with his poor glove and $2 million salary. 

Is it bad that I completely forgot Hiura is still on the roster? 

[monty57]

Just now, owbc said:

Is it bad that I completely forgot Hiura is still on the roster? 

Not really, for extended periods of the season last year, Counsell seemed to forget he was on the roster.

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, monty57 said:

 

Wiemer will get his debut when someone gets hurt, but I think his shot at a starting role will be 2024, when Yelich likely moves to DH. His opportunity may be limited, as Chourio will likely be in the majors at some point in 2024, and at the rate he's going, none of Frelick, Mitchell or Wiemer will block him. My guess at that time will be that Chourio will play nearly everyday, and Frelick, Mitchell and Wiemer will split time at the other two spots, but a lot can happen between now and then.

 

I think the safest assumption is that at least one of the young outfield prospects will fall short of expectations and that we won't have to worry much about an OF rotation/surplus. Mitchell and Wiemer are the most likely candidates in that sense due to the significant swing and miss in their respective profiles.

Regardless, this situation will play out organically, and I doubt it will be as difficult a decision as some are anticipating. 

[SandyTolan]

5 hours ago, MVP2110 said:

If you believe that Frelick & Turang can put up similar WAR to Renfroe & Wong then we added nearly all of that depth without diminishing the rest of the roster. 

I definitely don't believe that.  I say ease the young fellas in.  Get another bat in RF and one at 3B - Frelick and Mitchell and share CF (even though both are lefty), get a Varsho type in RF and a Justin Turner type at 3B and then they rock & roll.

Yelich/Adames/Winker/Contreras/Varsho/Turner/Tellez/Urias/Mitchell-Frelick.  That team could go really far.

[BallFour]

Brosseau is going to make it over Hiura just for the simple fact he actually has a spot in the lineup vs. lefties, not to mention the ability to play 2B and 3B. Probably don't even want Hiura at 2b unless it is a emergency situation because range matters at 2B with the banning of the shift.

Wonder when the Hiura for a reliever trade happens.

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, SandyTolan said:

I definitely don't believe that.  I say ease the young fellas in.  Get another bat in RF and one at 3B - Frelick and Mitchell and share CF (even though both are lefty), get a Varsho type in RF and a Justin Turner type at 3B and then they rock & roll.

Yelich/Adames/Winker/Contreras/Varsho/Turner/Tellez/Urias/Mitchell-Frelick.  That team could go really far.

I don't think Varsho is a realistic option at this point. The asking price for him is justifiably sky high and I'm not sure we have the non-OF prospects necessary to get a deal done.

Granted, I thought the same thing about Contreras, so I guess you never know...I'm a huge fan myself of Varsho's. 

[monty57]

24 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I think the safest assumption is that at least one of the young outfield prospects will fall short of expectations and that we won't have to worry much about an OF rotation/surplus. Mitchell and Wiemer are the most likely candidates in that sense due to the significant swing and miss in their respective profiles.

Regardless, this situation will play out organically, and I doubt it will be as difficult a decision as some are anticipating. 

That's true. Just because I want all of the prospects to succeed doesn't mean they will. Plus, there will be injuries so it's nice to have some talent tucked away in AAA for when that happens. 

On that note, it is nice that the prospects in question have shown success at AAA, and we're not just hoping on guys who have a good year in A-ball. The chances of success for a guy who has already worked his way through the minors with some success are higher than a "high upside" guy who still has to make the jump to AA/AAA.

[Redd Vencher]

3 hours ago, wntrtxn21 said:

I think it's premature to think Contreras DHs on days he's not catching.  IF Winker works out, he'll be the primary DH unless a lefty is throwing.  CC likes to give his primary catcher days off. I just don't see him wasting a spot on the bench for a third catcher.  If Contreras was DHing and needed to catch because of injury, CC could then just pinch hit when the pitcher.'s spot comes up. Everything remains to be seen, but by a baseball miracle, the Crew now has Contreras. 

If Contreras hits anywhere close to his 2022, it'd be a waste not to get him 500+ PA. There's 1436 innings to cover on average. Only 2 catchers caught at least 1000 innings (70%) last year, and only another 13 guys caught at least 800 innings (56%). Winker's career 87 wRC+ v. LHP isn't much better than Caratini's 82 wRC+ v. LHP. It's the perfect way to get Contreras to 500+ innings.

[Matt Breen]

1 hour ago, monty57 said:

I'm missing something here. I agree with you on Winker. I think he played injured last year, as the previous two years he was one of the best hitters in baseball. If he's healthy, I hope for closer to the 140-ish wRC+ guy he was prior to last year. If that happens, he will be the DH nearly every day.

That means Yelich will be our everyday LF. Unless things go really wrong this year, and Winker is traded at the deadline, Yelich's transition to DH will be in 2024, not 2023.

That leaves CF and RF. I think that will be Mitchell and Frelick, with Taylor as the backup. I guess it's possible they call up Wiemer and leave Frelick in AAA, but one of Mitchell, Frelick or Wiemer will very likely start the year in AAA, and I'd guess that will be Wiemer. 

I think you are totally correct. Barring weird stuff happening (such as injuries), I see Yelich, Mitchell and Frelick in the OF. Taylor is the top backup - a right hander can play all spots - nice to have.

Wiemer spends some time at AAA - and if he does well - gets the call when the opportunity arises. That could be someone getting hurt or Mitchell or Frelick not playing well. Whatever. 

Winker is the DH, Rowdy at 1B. Perhaps work in some of the infielders to get some at bats against lefties. 

[sveumrules]

Potential post-trade lineup with (2023 Steamer Projections)

Yelich (119 OPS+)
Frelick (111 OPS+)
Adames (111 OPS+)
Winker (122 OPS+)
Rowdy (123 OPS+)
Contreras (115 OPS+)
Urias (110 OPS+)
Mitchell (99 OPS+)
Turang (94 OPS+)

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Potential post-trade lineup with (2023 Steamer Projections)

Yelich (119 OPS+)
Frelick (111 OPS+)
Adames (111 OPS+)
Winker (122 OPS+)
Rowdy (123 OPS+)
Contreras (115 OPS+)
Urias (110 OPS+)
Mitchell (99 OPS+)
Turang (94 OPS+)

Not bad. Not bad at all. Continue to be opportunistic on the hitting front (Turner, Meyers?), while focusing on adding a high-leverage option in the pen (Chafin, Rogers, etc.) and we should be pretty close to set. 

[TURBO]

30 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Potential post-trade lineup with (2023 Steamer Projections)

Yelich (119 OPS+)
Frelick (111 OPS+)
Adames (111 OPS+)
Winker (122 OPS+)
Rowdy (123 OPS+)
Contreras (115 OPS+)
Urias (110 OPS+)
Mitchell (99 OPS+)
Turang (94 OPS+)

If only we can come up with a replacement for Urias.

I smell a future trade happening and I think it will be sooner rather than later. 

There has to be a 3B out there that is major league ready, and that could be had for one of our outfielders, Mitchell would be my choice for trade bait.

[umphrey]

I can't believe I'm defending Hiura, I wouldn't mind seeing him go, but wasn't he a better hitter last year than Winker and Tellez?