2023 Packers draft discussion

[HarveysWBs]

So after Jaxon Smith-Njigba ran in the low 4.5 range at his pro day, I am fully prepared for him to get snagged a couple spots ahead of us in the draft and then our first two picks will be an interior d lineman and a offensive tackle project, neither of whom will start right away.  In a couple years, they’ll be solid contributors in the “good but not great” category, but there will be a handful of vague reports that Gute loved JSN and Darnell Washington but just missed on both, so we’ll be doomed to all argue about these draft results for at least the next decade.

This is the Packers, so there is no other way.

[Matt Breen]

Draft is a few weeks away. At this point, I'm thinking we will have one of the #2 picks of the Jets. Which is great. That gives us #15, #42 or 43 (depending on which #2 we get from the Jets), and #45. That's three pretty sweet picks.

The Packers could go a lot of ways - I think WR, TE, Edge, and Safety are premium needs - but if an OL or DT they loved dropped - they could do that. I guess it all depends on who is available. 

The good part is that I think we can nab a quality person at each of these spots to fill an immediate need. We are not going to fill every need - but we can at least get a few positions covered. Should be fun. Just need to wrap up the Rodgers trade.

 

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, reillymcshane said:

 Just need to wrap up the Rodgers trade.

My therapist says that I need closure.

[Matt Breen]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

My therapist says that I need closure.

Closure such as this…

 

[CheezWizHed]

3 hours ago, reillymcshane said:

Closure such as this…

 

Got to wait until next year for that one. 😉

[brewcrewdue80]

16 hours ago, reillymcshane said:

Draft is a few weeks away. At this point, I'm thinking we will have one of the #2 picks of the Jets. Which is great. That gives us #15, #42 or 43 (depending on which #2 we get from the Jets), and #45. That's three pretty sweet picks.

The Packers could go a lot of ways - I think WR, TE, Edge, and Safety are premium needs - but if an OL or DT they loved dropped - they could do that. I guess it all depends on who is available. 

The good part is that I think we can nab a quality person at each of these spots to fill an immediate need. We are not going to fill every need - but we can at least get a few positions covered. Should be fun. Just need to wrap up the Rodgers trade.

 

Looks like either of the(projecting] 2nd rd picks paired with the 3rd would be high enough to trade back in to the 1st rd for like 27-31. And still keep 1 of the 2nds.  More likely you see the 4th and highest 2nd trade up to early-mid thirties and get one of those overnight 1st rd talents who had fallen. Guess you're sorta looking at do you want that 5th yr player option or just stick with the 4.

Would be nice for the Rodgers trade to get completed already make a pre-draft easier to guess.

[Matt Breen]

Three weeks away from the draft, here's my prediction for the Packers first three rounds. This is assuming the Packers get the Jets #2 pick (either #42 or #43). Important: this is who I think the club will pick - not necessarily who I believe we should pick.

1 (15) - S Brian Branch, Alabama. Would step right in at safety, which is a massive hole right now. That the club hasn't added anyone only reinforces this pick. Also, there is no other safety in the draft who is as solid and dynamic than Branch. 

If OL Peter Skoronski or WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is available at this spot, I'd be sorely tempted to take them as well. But I think both will be gone.

2 (42/43) - TE Darnell Washington, Georgia or TE Luke Musgrave, Oregon St. Either player would fill a huge hole in the roster from day one. I think Musgrave is the likely selection as Washington will probably be gone (as will the other top TEs, Michael Mayer and Dalton Kincaid). 

2 (44) - Edge Will McDonald IV - Iowa State. Not big, but he has the potential to be an elite pass rusher - which the team can always use.

3 (78) - WR Rashee Rice or WR Jayden Reed, Michigan State or WR Marvin Mims, Oklahoma. There's some quality WRs that should be available at this point in the draft. Each of these guys offers solid value and fills a need. 

This is all good fun. I'm filling a lot of 'needs' with this draft, but if an exceptional talent is available at other positions, then all bets are off. 

[nate82]

Packers trade Rodgers to the 49ers:

 

Packers trade Rodgers to the Jets:

[homer]

I'd love to get JSN but I don't think he's gonna be there at 15.

[nate82]

1 hour ago, homer said:

I'd love to get JSN but I don't think he's gonna be there at 15.

Yeah that was a weird mock draft in that one.  The Bears at #9 were able to get Carter.  All of the top QB's were drafted and one of the top OL and one of the CB's were drafted before the Bears picked at #9. 

[Matt Breen]

JSN looks like he’ll be the first receiver off the board. I agree with others - I doubt he drops to us. 
 

He seems like a guy who is going to catch a 100 passes every year.

[PeaveyFury]

While I absolutely agree that JSN appears to be the first WR off the board and would be a slam-dunk pick at 15 for Green Bay, can anyone explain the negative turn in Quentin Johnston's projections to me? Was a guy who seemed unlikely to make it out of the top 10 a few weeks ago, now is slipping some.

Feels, like Jefferson a few years ago, like a complete, NFL receiver that ends up getting taken in the late teens/20s and becomes a franchise WR to me.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, PeaveyFury said:

While I absolutely agree that JSN appears to be the first WR off the board and would be a slam-dunk pick at 15 for Green Bay, can anyone explain the negative turn in Quentin Johnston's projections to me? Was a guy who seemed unlikely to make it out of the top 10 a few weeks ago, now is slipping some.

Feels, like Jefferson a few years ago, like a complete, NFL receiver that ends up getting taken in the late teens/20s and becomes a franchise WR to me.

All I can think of is the tape of him getting completely shut down against UGA - TCU was overmatched all over the field, but Johnston couldn't get open at all with Georgia playing bump and run most of the game (when it actually mattered).  Johnston was nursing a bum ankle most of last season, too - so maybe there's some concern on the health front.

Tools and athletic ability appear to be all there - it could simply be a bunch of other players rocketing up boards based on who's picking and what perceived needs they have, too.  Keep in mind that the last few drafts have seen a ton of WR's taken early, so it may be one of those years where teams that just recently picked a receiver in round 1 have other roster holes that need filling, and a team like the Packers could have an ideal fit fall into their lap.

[brewcrewdue80]

The ultimate FU to Rodgers would be taking a WR at 15 a year after trading up in 2nd to draft him Watson.  

 

Nate-Is there something about Karl Brooks that you drafted him twice? Bowling Green isn't exactly a football powerhouse.  Your first draft also took 3Edge rushers and a DL. Did you intend to do that?

Think the Jets trade mock is best mix played out of the 2 mocks.

[nate82]

1 hour ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Nate-Is there something about Karl Brooks that you drafted him twice? Bowling Green isn't exactly a football powerhouse.  Your first draft also took 3Edge rushers and a DL. Did you intend to do that?

He could be a sneaky good pass rusher someone you may want to stash for a year or two and put on a NFL training regiment.  If he bulks up he could be a really good pass rusher.  Other than his arms and hands he has all of what you are looking for in a edge rusher.  While Bowling Green isn't a powerhouse I think Brooks fits in well with the Packers defensive scheme. 

I think the Packers are short on defensive lineman and need to bolster their defensive line.  This draft is also very deep in defensive line talent and very shallow on offensive line talent.  Teams are going to snatch up all of the good OL early which should leave a lot of 3rd and 4th round DL types in the 4th and 5th round. 

[LouisEly]

I have the opposite on DL - it's a weak draft for DL, particularly DE.  Lots of undersized guys with mediocre production.  When it comes to edge defenders (under 280 lbs), there's a lot of depth, but not interior DL (5/3i/1/0 technique, 280lbs plus)

The Packers brought Keion White in for one of their top 30 visits.  Hmmm....

[patrickgpe]

RE: JSN

Saw this over the weekend, https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10071587-report-zay-flowers-stock-surging-could-be-1st-wr-selected-in-2023-nfl-draft. I understand that you can't believe anything that is said between now and the draft, but it is an interesting note. I think JSN would be an excellent choice at 15, As would Johnson, Mayer, or Kincaid. If they are giving the keys to the kingdom to love, they got to get him some help. 

[Matt Breen]

On 4/8/2023 at 11:13 AM, PeaveyFury said:

While I absolutely agree that JSN appears to be the first WR off the board and would be a slam-dunk pick at 15 for Green Bay, can anyone explain the negative turn in Quentin Johnston's projections to me? Was a guy who seemed unlikely to make it out of the top 10 a few weeks ago, now is slipping some.

Feels, like Jefferson a few years ago, like a complete, NFL receiver that ends up getting taken in the late teens/20s and becomes a franchise WR to me.

It is odd. A while ago he was the top WR.

The stuff on Johnston is - I think - that he he still needs some work. Just a lot of areas he can improve (which - you might argue - is a good thing). Great athlete, but has been dinged by injuries, had his share of drops, not the most polished route runner - stuff like that. 

Really intriguing player because he's probably the guy who has the potential to be a monster if he puts it all together. 

 

[patrickgpe]

taller guy, needs some development, seems familiar......Christian Watson comp?

[LouisEly]

Johnston had some drops at his pro day.  Couple that with the fumble in the Big 12 CG and getting shut down by Georgia in the championship game and he hasn't had a great last four months.  Nothing major, but enough to perhaps take him out of the top 15-20 picks.

Speaking of WRs, which of the two would you prefer?  Both played in the same conference.  A is slightly bigger than B, B has longer arms than A, both were "one year wonders":

A: 95 rec., 1600 rec yds, 9 TDs; combine/pro day: 4.48-40, 1.60 10-yd split, 35" vertical, 6.57 3-cone, 3.93 short-shuttle
B: 110 rec., 1360 rec yds, 12 TDs; combine/pro day: 4.43-40, 1.51 10-yd split, 36.5" vertical, 6.84 3-cone, 4.12 short-shuttle

Now, what if B was likely to go 2-3 rounds later than A?  Would you take B later?

[nate82]

11 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Speaking of WRs, which of the two would you prefer?  Both played in the same conference.  A is slightly bigger than B, B has longer arms than A, both were "one year wonders":

A: 95 rec., 1600 rec yds, 9 TDs; combine/pro day: 4.48-40, 1.60 10-yd split, 35" vertical, 6.57 3-cone, 3.93 short-shuttle
B: 110 rec., 1360 rec yds, 12 TDs; combine/pro day: 4.43-40, 1.51 10-yd split, 36.5" vertical, 6.84 3-cone, 4.12 short-shuttle

Now, what if B was likely to go 2-3 rounds later than A?  Would you take B later?

For WR's I prefer a better vertical over speed.  Since that vertical will help more when in the red zone than speed.  If the WR can out jump a DB then there is very little other than pushing the WR out of bounds that the DB is going to be able to do.  You can over come speed in the red zone. 

I think both are basically the same one is a little bit faster with a slightly better vertical while the other is more agile.  In this case I would rather just look at the route running and hands compared to everything else.  Both look to be mid 1st or 2nd round picks. 

[homer]

I could be totally wrong but I think shuttle probably corresponds to good route running. 

[brewcrewdue80]

8 hours ago, LouisEly said:

Johnston had some drops at his pro day.  Couple that with the fumble in the Big 12 CG and getting shut down by Georgia in the championship game and he hasn't had a great last four months.  Nothing major, but enough to perhaps take him out of the top 15-20 picks.

Speaking of WRs, which of the two would you prefer?  Both played in the same conference.  A is slightly bigger than B, B has longer arms than A, both were "one year wonders":

A: 95 rec., 1600 rec yds, 9 TDs; combine/pro day: 4.48-40, 1.60 10-yd split, 35" vertical, 6.57 3-cone, 3.93 short-shuttle
B: 110 rec., 1360 rec yds, 12 TDs; combine/pro day: 4.43-40, 1.51 10-yd split, 36.5" vertical, 6.84 3-cone, 4.12 short-shuttle

Now, what if B was likely to go 2-3 rounds later than A?  Would you take B later?

I'm taking B. Longer arms, higher vertical, slightly fast top speed. You mentioned shorter so the 2 or slot WR.  Smaller avg per rec yards, higher rec and TDs. Just gives the feel off that as a possession receiver. Maybe better blocker build.

[nate82]

On 4/9/2023 at 3:53 PM, LouisEly said:

I have the opposite on DL - it's a weak draft for DL, particularly DE.  Lots of undersized guys with mediocre production.  When it comes to edge defenders (under 280 lbs), there's a lot of depth, but not interior DL (5/3i/1/0 technique, 280lbs plus)

The Packers brought Keion White in for one of their top 30 visits.  Hmmm....

I completely disagree just looking at the draft:

For DT's there are 14 with a grade of 1-4 and at edge there are 20 with a grade of 1-4. 

For OT there are 9 with a grade of 1-4, at G there are 9 and at C there are 3.

There are going to be draft grade DL's of 2-4 available in the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds while the majority of the OL's are going to be gone by the 3rd round.  You will have to be picking 5-UDF in the later rounds of the draft. 

 

This is probably not a popular opinion but if Dewayne McBride is available in the 4th or 5th round I think the Packers go with him.  He is a perfect RB fit for zone blocking. 

[CheezWizHed]

19 hours ago, nate82 said:

For WR's I prefer a better vertical over speed.  Since that vertical will help more when in the red zone than speed.  If the WR can out jump a DB then there is very little other than pushing the WR out of bounds that the DB is going to be able to do.  You can over come speed in the red zone. 

I think both are basically the same one is a little bit faster with a slightly better vertical while the other is more agile.  In this case I would rather just look at the route running and hands compared to everything else.  Both look to be mid 1st or 2nd round picks. 

The 3 cone is my favorite *single* athletic measurement for a WR. Obviously, you look at the whole package, but 3 cone is the first one I look at.  They have to turn sometime.  

Hard to tell where they are drafted based on numbers because you don't know the competition either. 

But if they are 2-3 rounds separated,,, we can draft both right? 🙂