Orioles (Kremer) vs Brewers (Burnes): 6/7/23, 6:40pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

Okay, one extra innings win down, grab the series win tonight.

[Jake McKibbin]

Kremer's peripherals so far are really bad

 

xBA .300

xSlg .540

Hard hit balls every other ball in play

xERA 6.38

 

He's been fortunate, and a good opportunity to take a big series with a semi-decent Burnes on the mound

Everything stays up in the zone, with a heavy four seam/cutter/sinker usage, the changeup stays up too much and all of these have been hit a lot so far this season

The lack of quality off speed leads me to think Yelich could make some loud contact, and Wiemer too should match up well

I'd love Adames to be facing him, but we'll see how this plays out, hopefully some solid stuff the rest of the lineup and we can put up some runs early and cruise it on in

[treego14]

[Brock Beauchamp]

I see people on Twitter gnashing their teeth over the Brewers' pythag.

I view their pythag as a good thing. They're the walking dead out there and playing over their heads. Those wins are banked.

And hopefully, in a month when they have something more resembling a healthy roster, they can start winning more cleanly.

[Jake McKibbin]

12 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I see people on Twitter gnashing their teeth over the Brewers' pythag.

I view their pythag as a good thing. They're the walking dead out there and playing over their heads. Those wins are banked.

And hopefully, in a month when they have something more resembling a healthy roster, they can start winning more cleanly.

It gives a fair indicator I think of the team as an all encompassing group, but given the likes of the Varland outing for example, or the post Willy injury one exacerbating things (plus Small), I don't think it reflects the team well when they're all out to win games

Just highlights the disparity in the bullpen's ability, a reason why we've struggled to come back in games. Hoby Milner has been really poor for instance

[sveumrules]

Brewers Full Season Pythag…

2017: +1
2018: +5
2019: +8
2021: +2
2022: +1

Anyone fretting over the Brewes pythag hasn’t been paying attention to how the Brewers have been constructing their teams and exploiting leverage situations for the last half decade.

 

[jerichoholicninja]

The theorem assumes a manager treats every inning of every game the same way. When Craig pulls his starter he basically decides whether they are going to win or not. If they're losing he goes to the bullpen trash which can often lead to the score getting out of hand. If they're winning he'll go to the "good" guys who hopefully don't. There's no bringing in a top arm when you're losing to try to keep the game close. Which is probably the best decision since this offense is so historically bad that they aren't coming back against most pitchers.

[willie key]

Wow.   Pirates lose series to Oakland 

 

I feel like this week could be a turning point in the nl central 

 

come on burnes. Show up

[Outlander]

6 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I see people on Twitter gnashing their teeth over the Brewers' pythag.

I view their pythag as a good thing. They're the walking dead out there and playing over their heads. Those wins are banked.

And hopefully, in a month when they have something more resembling a healthy roster, they can start winning more cleanly.

I don't know if there is such a thing as an individual pythag but if there was then this Kremer guy would be outperforming. This guy is due to get shelled.

[treego14]

[Brewcrew82]

Nice to see that CC feels compelled to insert Singleton into the lineup on an everyday basis...And at the top/middle of the order!

[markedman5]

Appreciate the Reds not bringing up this guy until we were out of town…..

 

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

Appreciate the Reds not bringing up this guy until we were out of town…..

 

Holy...

[wiguy94]

My goodness Burnes is going to have a special night if the zone is this gigantic all game.

 

[markedman5]

That is one pitcher friendly zone for Wendlestedt

[Brewcrew82]

Welcome back Willy!

[igor67]

Adames!!

[markedman5]

Welcome back baby!

[Brewcrew82]

Oh he's hot now. 

[markedman5]

Joey is starting to settle in……..😎

[igor67]

April 12th was the last time Weimer's OPS was this high.

[willie key]

burnes needs to win this game for us now

[Brewcrew82]

Feels so nice to have OFs that can hit again. 

[LouisEly]

10 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I see people on Twitter gnashing their teeth over the Brewers' pythag.

I view their pythag as a good thing. They're the walking dead out there and playing over their heads. Those wins are banked.

And hopefully, in a month when they have something more resembling a healthy roster, they can start winning more cleanly.

If this is how it's calculated, then it's wrong. 

Pythagorean should only include two standard deviations; the worst 2.5% of losses and the best 2.5% of wins should be excluded.  As others have said, if a team gets down big early and pulls its starters and has position players pitch, that can artificially inflate the loss run differential.  Same with if a team gets up big.  That's why the bottom 2.5% and top 2.5% should be excluded; they're data outliers.

[BruisedCrew]

Nice to see the Brewers scoring some early runs the last few days (except Monday).