Orioles (Bradish) vs Brewers (Rea): 6/8/23, 1:10pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

Well, that was a nice clean win last night that sets up the bullpen for a Rea start today.

Also, how about that Joey Wiemer?

[treego14]

[willie key]

I’ve got two questions for everyone to mull over during todays day game

1.   When Miley woodruff lauer comeback and the way Tehran is pitching do you go to a six man rotation for rest of year and keep lauer in pen?

2.   If you had to rate the biggest threat to the division title this year in order.  Here’s mine

cardinals (even though they look bad)

reds

Pirates. (I don’t believe in them)

cubs

[Frisbee Slider]

20 minutes ago, willie key said:

2.   If you had to rate the biggest threat to the division title this year in order.

I agree the Cardinals are most dangerous until they are eliminated. 

The Reds rotation seems too suspect to make an extended run, especially if Hunter Greene’s hip injury flares up. Reds need to go 55-45 to finish with 84 wins.

Pirates are playing with swagger (present series aside). I’m curious to see how Milwaukee fares against them with six games against Pittsburgh in the next month.

Cubs are not a concern.

[Jake McKibbin]

Bradish is another very hittable guy, but I'm thinking the O's hitters might break out today. Sneaking a win here gives the potential for this to be a massive week with the A's coming to town, and Colin rea will need to be hitting those edges.

Bradish's fastball has been mullered this year.

Some info

 

Average 91.3mph exit velocity on all pitches

His fastball has 20% less vertical movement than average, and minimal horizontal movement. It's really flat. It's been hit to a slugging percentage of .700

His slider is his best pitch, but it doesn't come out of the hand consistently, leaving semi regular hangers with minimal break

If the slider can be laid off of, everything else is very hittable, he uses it roughly 30% of the time with a 37% whiff rate. However he prefers using the curveball to left handers, and that's been a better pitch to hit so far this season

The four seam adn sinker are usually kept middle and inside, so I think Owen Miller might enjoy himself today. Also Rowdy has shown some positive AB's without the results recently, I can see him having a breakout too

 

[Jake McKibbin]

Also strangely, Corbin Burnes 2022 & 2023 are two of the "similar pitchers" comparisons on baseball savant

[Brock Beauchamp]

45 minutes ago, willie key said:

I’ve got two questions for everyone to mull over during todays day game

1.   When Miley woodruff lauer comeback and the way Tehran is pitching do you go to a six man rotation for rest of year and keep lauer in pen?

2.   If you had to rate the biggest threat to the division title this year in order.  Here’s mine

cardinals (even though they look bad)

reds

Pirates. (I don’t believe in them)

cubs

1. Teheran, bless his heart, is not a good pitcher. He has bad velo, bad spin, doesn't miss bats. Maybe the Brewers keep him around for a few turns just to avoid losing him in case of re-injury but he's not an actual solution.

2. I know it's unpopular around here but I've basically written off the Cardinals. They're reeling again and are 11 games under .500. They'd have to play at a 100 win pace through the end of the season just to get enough wins to compete for the postseason (my threshold for that is 87-ish wins). I thought the Cubs would be better than they have been, they're basically out of it. The Reds have shown flashes of competency but I don't find them threatening... maybe if Elly absolutely goes off, that changes my mind a bit.

That leaves the Pirates. I don't really believe in them but they just keep hanging around. That makes them the biggest threat by default.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, willie key said:

I’ve got two questions for everyone to mull over during todays day game

1.   When Miley woodruff lauer comeback and the way Tehran is pitching do you go to a six man rotation for rest of year and keep lauer in pen?

2.   If you had to rate the biggest threat to the division title this year in order.  Here’s mine

cardinals (even though they look bad)

reds

Pirates. (I don’t believe in them)

cubs

1 - I think those three aren't all coming back at the exact same time, and odds are decent that if Tehran continues pitching well there will be a spot for him to keep making starts for awhile longer - but I'd wager that the more he pitches the less good his results will be and we will be happy to see him phased out of the rotation.  I think he'd be a valuable bullpen piece as a long man if the roster can support it.

2 - I have zero confidence the Cardinals' pitching is going to improve enough for them to go on an extended tear - for as much as I despise Yadi, I think we're seeing the positive impact he had with their pitching staff by watching their pitchers almost universally performing worse this season without him behind the dish.  Some of that is several of their key rotation arms that were rotation anchors are past their best years and now pitching like marginal MLB starters.  I actually think right this second that the Cubs are the more dangerous team than STL - particularly if they want to get aggressive at the deadline and try to fill a few roster holes via trade.  If they continue scuffling through June, it's just as likely the Cubs turn into sellers at the deadline and become a total afterthought for the playoffs by the AS break.  I'll also say that the Reds could make things interesting with the young talent they've got coming up, but it's difficult to put too much faith in new callups carrying teams into the playoffs when they don't have a solid roster of veterans to lean on when they go through the rookie struggles that are sure to happen.  Honestly, if the Brewers can continue to work through the injury storm they've dealt with in April/May, they're going to win this division rather easily.

[Outlander]

I think the Brewers would like a 6 man rotation but just have not had the starting pitching this season. Don't want to rely on Rea or Teheran too long but best they have right now. Rea being the first to go with his option. Not liking Rea's chances this afternoon but he for the most part at least keeps them in the game.

[YelichPosse]

I will say, I like/trust Teheran more than Lauer, this year, at this point.... His zoom isn't zooming and it seems he just doesn't have it this year.

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, willie key said:

I’ve got two questions for everyone to mull over during todays day game

1.   When Miley woodruff lauer comeback and the way Tehran is pitching do you go to a six man rotation for rest of year and keep lauer in pen?

2.   If you had to rate the biggest threat to the division title this year in order.  Here’s mine

cardinals (even though they look bad)

reds

Pirates. (I don’t believe in them)

cubs

Probably no to 6-man rotation. I’m guessing Rea will get optioned because Teheran can’t. I also think if everyone else is healthy (including Woody) that Peralta will get a fake 15-day IL stint at some point to limit his innings.

I could definitely see Lauer being the in the bullpen as a swing man when they want to go 6 SP for a turn through the rotation, but I doubt they go full 6 man rotation. 
 

1. Reds (Elly De La Cruz seems like a superstar already and that club is playing with a ton of energy)

2. Cardinals (on paper they seem the biggest threat but they just don’t seem to have it this year)

3. Pirates 

4. Cubs

[edfunderburk]

Help - Someone point me to the archived game threads … I wanted to read last night’s … not sure where to find those

[Jake McKibbin]

Just now, edfunderburk said:

Help - Someone point me to the archived game threads … I wanted to read last night’s … not sure where to find those

https://brewerfanatic.com/forums/topic/40401-orioles-kremer-vs-brewers-burnes-6723-640pm/

[phnxcrew]

I’m not ready to write off the cardinals, but the balanced schedule benefits us and has exposed them.  They can’t win offensive battles against the big boys on the coasts like they could in the central.  And as we saw last night, great pitching doesn’t care who we play.  

[treego14]

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, willie key said:

I’ve got two questions for everyone to mull over during todays day game

1.   When Miley woodruff lauer comeback and the way Tehran is pitching do you go to a six man rotation for rest of year and keep lauer in pen?

2.   If you had to rate the biggest threat to the division title this year in order.  Here’s mine

cardinals (even though they look bad)

reds

Pirates. (I don’t believe in them)

cubs

I think they'd love to go to a six-man if possible, maybe not for the duration but at least for a stretch. I also think a Rea or a Teheran would eventually fit well as a 13th man on the staff. You certainly don't want a younger arm in that role getting sporadic work as opposed to being on a regular sked on the farm. Who knows, if Lauer doesn't figure it out he may even fill that role.

I think the biggest threat to us in the division is in the mirror---our own inconsistencies scoring runs. Getting healthier & Wiemer & Turang (yeah, I know he's not here right now) continuing to evolve should be keys. If picking another squad that could challenge, I guess I'd go with St Louis. But they miss Molina big, big time.

[wiguy94]

Brewers hitters have collectively faced by far the best defense in baseball this year. Opposing teams have 25 OAA against us. Second highest is only 13 OAA.

Here is the source: 

 https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Batting_Team&startYear=2023&endYear=2023&split=yes&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=&roles=&viz=hide

[Team Canada]

Well this is a nice start.

[homer]

singlesinglesinglesingle

[markedman5]

That botched communication on Adames grounder really opened up this inning.

 

lots of nice opposite field approaches 

[markedman5]

Rea pounding the zone in the first 2 innings 

[BruisedCrew]

The Colin Rea offense makes another appearance. The Brewers have averaged 8 runs per game in his last 4 starts, which is incredible considering how poor the offense has been in general. 

[Frisbee Slider]

7 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

The Colin Rea offense makes another appearance. The Brewers have averaged 8 runs per game in his last 4 starts, which is incredible considering how poor the offense has been in general. 

Colin Rea knows how to win.

[BruisedCrew]

6 hours ago, willie key said:

I’ve got two questions for everyone to mull over during todays day game

1.   When Miley woodruff lauer comeback and the way Tehran is pitching do you go to a six man rotation for rest of year and keep lauer in pen?

2.   If you had to rate the biggest threat to the division title this year in order.  Here’s mine

cardinals (even though they look bad)

reds

Pirates. (I don’t believe in them)

cubs

My answer to the first question is that I wouldn’t spend any time thinking about it. Chances are that that will work itself out through injuries and/or poor performance. 

Regardless of who’s available I wouldn’t want to go to a true six man rotation. With off days the SP would sometimes have a full week between starts, and that isn’t ideal. I’d prefer a 5 man rotation with maybe an occasional 6th SP during periods without off days for two weeks or more.

On the second question, I still think the Cardinals are the most likely threat. They have the veteran talent that has shown that they can carry a team to an extended stretch of winning. They’ve put together charges each of the last two years and seem more likely than the other teams to do it again  

 

[duewizard]

Good job by Rea. Up to the BP now.