Jackson Chourio’s “mediocrity” in AA

[Brock Beauchamp]

I’ve seen a lot of disappointment around Chourio this season (maybe not so much in the past two weeks but still).

Frankly, it’s absurd. He’s a teenager and not particularly close to turning 20. His 107 wRC+ is not eye-popping. THAT’S FINE. He’s a teenager! In AA!

Let this tweet put that onto context. Look at the names mentioned. 

[wibadgers23]

And hasn’t his strikeout numbers come way down? Still not walking a ton but love to see the strikeouts coming down. I mean, he’s the youngest player in all of AA and he’s among league leaders in many offensive categories in the Southern League.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

And hasn’t his strikeout numbers come way down? Still not walking a ton but love to see the strikeouts coming down. I mean, he’s the youngest player in all of AA and he’s among league leaders in many offensive categories in the Southern League.

Just showing competency against AA pitching at his age is phenomenal. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

Since July 6th he's hitting .500.

One of the things to watch as he continues to develop & gain respect (and be pitched carefully) is, will he be able to extract walks like wibadgers23 mentioned.

But yeah, he's doing nothing to discourage the lofty rankings.

[ctmyers]

It's also worth noting that Chourio is going oppo more than any other time in his career.  Clearly this is a focus of his and the hitting instructors.  Learning to stay back longer on pitches is something that takes time to get used to.  And he's hitting lefties better than he did last year, so lot's of encouraging things going on, even if the numbers aren't eye popping yet.  

[wallus]

1 hour ago, ctmyers said:

It's also worth noting that Chourio is going oppo more than any other time in his career.  Clearly this is a focus of his and the hitting instructors.  Learning to stay back longer on pitches is something that takes time to get used to.  And he's hitting lefties better than he did last year, so lot's of encouraging things going on, even if the numbers aren't eye popping yet.  

You see how the ball comes off his bat when he goes oppo and it is ridiculous for a 19 year old.

[RedStickBrew]

1 minute ago, wallus said:

You see how the ball comes off his bat when he goes oppo and it is ridiculous for a 19 year old.

He appears to have insanely quick hands and is letting the ball get deeper in the hitting zone which might explain in part, the oppo approach he's taken this year. The power is amazing.

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, RedStickBrew said:

He appears to have insanely quick hands and is letting the ball get deeper in the hitting zone which might explain in part, the oppo approach he's taken this year. The power is amazing.

Not many MLB players can routinely hit 400ft opposite field HR and Chourio is doing it as a 19 year old with plenty of filling out still to do.

[RedStickBrew]

2 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Not many MLB players can routinely hit 400ft opposite field HR and Chourio is doing it as a 19 year old with plenty of filling out still to do.

No doubt.  I hope Brewer fans realize just how special he is.  I want to make it over to Biloxi a couple more times yet before he is promoted, just not the type of player that comes along too often

[titletownking]

I believe Biloxi has seen the last of Jackson. 

[Robocaller]

I think your perspective is based on the past, not current productivity by Chourio.

On July 4 he was hitting .247 with a .303 OBP. Underwhelming, but good considering his age.

Now he's hitting .279 with a .331 OBP. No one should be thinking he's mediocre at this point.

 

[RedStickBrew]

1 hour ago, titletownking said:

I believe Biloxi has seen the last of Jackson. 

As I recall, last year around August 1 was when Mitchell, Frelick, and Wiemer were promoted to Nashville.  I am expecting something similar with Chourio, Black and maybe Quero this year. Who knows?

[titletownking]

47 minutes ago, RedStickBrew said:

As I recall, last year around August 1 was when Mitchell, Frelick, and Wiemer were promoted to Nashville.  I am expecting something similar with Chourio, Black and maybe Quero this year. Who knows?

This was my reasoning. I think Quero, Black and Chourio are all promoted. 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, titletownking said:

I believe Biloxi has seen the last of Jackson. 

I don't know if that's true, but I kinda hope it's not. I feel like a full year in AA is perfect for him. I mean, the kid is 19 and looks like he'll be in Milwaukee next year...and then the "Chourio extension" threads will kick off!

 

2 hours ago, Robocaller said:

I think your perspective is based on the past, not current productivity by Chourio.

On July 4 he was hitting .247 with a .303 OBP. Underwhelming, but good considering his age.

Now he's hitting .279 with a .331 OBP. No one should be thinking he's mediocre at this point.

I really only ever saw just a couple people really questioning him...and generally people who were already dug into an argument(like they'd prefer a FA reliever each year over the Latin American signings and development). 

[Playing Catch]

I think that many of us are dreaming that he becomes Ronald Acuna. In actuality, that's probably setting us up to be disappointed.

I'm thinking he looks like a Justin Upton: 5-tool, teenage sensation/top prospect. About the same size. As career moves forward, he becomes a 20/20 guy with one or two 30 HR seasons, decent batting average, 4 all-star appearances. Goes to free agency at first chance. Signs a deal that probably won't age well.

Is an outcome like that still one that we dream on?

[ARobsBrewCrew]

52 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

I think that many of us are dreaming that he becomes Ronald Acuna. In actuality, that's probably setting us up to be disappointed.

I'm thinking he looks like a Justin Upton: 5-tool, teenage sensation/top prospect. About the same size. As career moves forward, he becomes a 20/20 guy with one or two 30 HR seasons, decent batting average, 4 all-star appearances. Goes to free agency at first chance. Signs a deal that probably won't age well.

Is an outcome like that still one that we dream on?

Chourio’s ceiling is beyond Justin Upton without a doubt.  For all we know, Chourio could end up having a better career than Acuna.  That being said, if he turns into a Upton type of player, you cannot possibly hope for more out of a prospect.

[homer]

Goes without saying but it's hard to have a hall of fame career. We had a really nice surge of hitting prospects under Doug Melvin and only Braun had stats worthy of HOF consideration (and he won't get in due to the failed drug test). Fielder might have gotten there had he not had injuries but that's part of the deal. Not everyone stays healthy enough to live up to their ceiling (e.g. Buxton). 

[RedStickBrew]

1 hour ago, ARobsBrewCrew said:

Chourio’s ceiling is beyond Justin Upton without a doubt.  For all we know, Chourio could end up having a better career than Acuna.  That being said, if he turns into a Upton type of player, you cannot possibly hope for more out of a prospect.

Correct me if I am wrong, but Chourio appears to have far superior plate discipline and contact skills as compared to Justin Upton.  He also has a lot of filling out to do to be compared to Upton physically. I would agree his ceiling higher

As I recall, Upton had a huge hole in his swing that was exploited at the MLB level and he never was quite able to adjust.  I think Chourio would handle MLB pitching today if he were called up.

[Harold Hutchison]

I think Chourio is going to be very good at the very least.

I just think the Crew is in a position to be calm, let him develop his OBP skills in Nashville for 2024, maybe even 2025, and they'd still get wonderful production out of him. He doesn't have to be added to the 40-man until after the 2024 season.

See what a full season or two of Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer looks like in Milwaukee, then have Chourio come up in 2025 (or 2026), and you not only get him, but the return from dealing one of the other three (or you move one to 1B and have Yelich DH).

[Jake McKibbin]

26 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

I think Chourio is going to be very good at the very least.

I just think the Crew is in a position to be calm, let him develop his OBP skills in Nashville for 2024, maybe even 2025, and they'd still get wonderful production out of him. He doesn't have to be added to the 40-man until after the 2024 season.

See what a full season or two of Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer looks like in Milwaukee, then have Chourio come up in 2025 (or 2026), and you not only get him, but the return from dealing one of the other three (or you move one to 1B and have Yelich DH).

I think this sort of roster manipulation is shocking for a player's development and mental space to be honest. Also there's only so much you learn when not being challenged in AAA so that becomes less prospect development and just stagnating him, which could wreck him.

Motivation is such a huge thing for these athletes

So even suggesting 2026 seems a little nuts. Obviously if he's not hitting all that well or not like the top level chourio at AAA before bringing him up, then that's fair next season, but if he is, you can't just keep a guy down for an extra year and a half for that

[Jose Cardenal]

With his somewhat short stature and lighting quick bat my comp for Chourio would be Gary Sheffield.

Sheffield was called up at 19 for the last month of the '88 season and put up .238/.295/.400 numbers.  He followed that up in '89 with a line of ..247/.303/.337 in 368 AB's.

It wasn't until his age 23 season in '92 when he became the almost HOF player he ended up being.  

I think Chourio should get off to a better start of his career than Sheffield did but sometimes the tortoise wins the race.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, clancyphile said:

I think Chourio is going to be very good at the very least.

I just think the Crew is in a position to be calm, let him develop his OBP skills in Nashville for 2024, maybe even 2025, and they'd still get wonderful production out of him. He doesn't have to be added to the 40-man until after the 2024 season.

See what a full season or two of Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer looks like in Milwaukee, then have Chourio come up in 2025 (or 2026), and you not only get him, but the return from dealing one of the other three (or you move one to 1B and have Yelich DH).

You don't shelve a potentially generational talent in minor leagues for two MORE seasons just because you can wait that long to have to add Chourio to the 40 man roster - my goodness.  We're not talking about a 30th round draft pick out of college with a fun nickname or Cooper Hummel here...

If he stumbles in his development, sure, you have the luxury to let him struggle and grow as a kid in the minor leagues - when he's doing what he currently is at the AA level as a teenager, which is frankly making a mockery of it during this recent hot streak, you start figuring out how soon his talent can help at the MLB level and get aggressive in getting him up there.

A full season of Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer should never ever be guaranteed due to the injury histories and some initial MLB struggles - and frankly even a healthy full season with those 3 in the outfield wouldn't be as good as having Chourio on the MLB roster as an everyday player - even as a 20/21 yr old.  He's that talented.

[Harold Hutchison]

11 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I think this sort of roster manipulation is shocking for a player's development and mental space to be honest. Also there's only so much you learn when not being challenged in AAA so that becomes less prospect development and just stagnating him, which could wreck him.

Motivation is such a huge thing for these athletes

So even suggesting 2026 seems a little nuts. Obviously if he's not hitting all that well or not like the top level chourio at AAA before bringing him up, then that's fair next season, but if he is, you can't just keep a guy down for an extra year and a half for that

My worry is this: Choruio's K/BB ratio is slightly worse than Keston Hiura's was in his career prior to his 2019 call-up. Now, the Brewers needed help at second base because Travis Shaw's bat really fell off, and the other alternatives posted OPS+ numbers in the 60s. Hiura had a good half-season in 2019, but his 2020 and 2021 were both disappointing, to put it mildly. He bounced between Nashville and Milwaukee in 2022, and the Crew DFAed him in 2023.

I don't want that for Chourio or the Brewers.

So, why not see what a full season of Frelick-Mitchell-Wiemer looks like when we have the time to spare? 

[Harold Hutchison]

44 minutes ago, Jose Cardenal said:

With his somewhat short stature and lighting quick bat my comp for Chourio would be Gary Sheffield.

Sheffield was called up at 19 for the last month of the '88 season and put up .238/.295/.400 numbers.  He followed that up in '89 with a line of ..247/.303/.337 in 368 AB's.

It wasn't until his age 23 season in '92 when he became the almost HOF player he ended up being.  

I think Chourio should get off to a better start of his career than Sheffield did but sometimes the tortoise wins the race.

Sheffield did have an attitude problem in Milwaukee - and I think he said so at times.

[Brewcrew82]

20 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

My worry is this: Choruio's K/BB ratio is slightly worse than Keston Hiura's was in his career prior to his 2019 call-up. Now, the Brewers needed help at second base because Travis Shaw's bat really fell off, and the other alternatives posted OPS+ numbers in the 60s. Hiura had a good half-season in 2019, but his 2020 and 2021 were both disappointing, to put it mildly. He bounced between Nashville and Milwaukee in 2022, and the Crew DFAed him in 2023.

I don't want that for Chourio or the Brewers.

So, why not see what a full season of Frelick-Mitchell-Wiemer looks like when we have the time to spare? 

Keston Hiura at time of callup: 22. Jackson Chourio right now: 19 and youngest player in AA by several months.