Jackson Chourio’s “mediocrity” in AA

[Fear The Chorizo]

25 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

My worry is this: Choruio's K/BB ratio is slightly worse than Keston Hiura's was in his career prior to his 2019 call-up. Now, the Brewers needed help at second base because Travis Shaw's bat really fell off, and the other alternatives posted OPS+ numbers in the 60s. Hiura had a good half-season in 2019, but his 2020 and 2021 were both disappointing, to put it mildly. He bounced between Nashville and Milwaukee in 2022, and the Crew DFAed him in 2023.

I don't want that for Chourio or the Brewers.

So, why not see what a full season of Frelick-Mitchell-Wiemer looks like when we have the time to spare? 

I don't see the reason to compare one stat (K:BB ratio) of what Hiura did as a 21 yr old over his short minor league career that came primarily against pitching that didn't match Keston's level of development (he was widely considered having the best collegiate hit tool in the draft, so he should have raked against A/A+ caliber pitching...and he only played ~2months in AA) with a 19-yr old Chourio's performance thus far this season.  Hiura was a sophmore in college at the age Chourio is now playing in AA facing a steady diet of pitchers with MLB-caliber stuff who are still developing.  I'm among the most ardent Hiura backers on this board and really am pulling for him to get one last extended look as this team's DH...but as a prospect Hiura's ceiling was nowhere close to as high as what Chourio's is.

I do think we'll see Frelick/Mitchell/Wiemer manning the outfield next season in Milwaukee...but that doesn't mean we have to see that for two years before Chourio gets called up.  I think there's a better chance one of those 3 gets dealt this offseason or by next year's deadline to make room for Jackson than keeping Chourio in the minors all season next year.

 

 

 

[igor67]

I'm with Chorizo on this Frelick, Mitchell, Weimer is the planned starting OF. Yelich gets a shot to learn 1st or DH (maybe or they just assume the 4 share playing time in OF and a big chunk of DH ABs) 4th and 5th OF spots are handled with a similar collection to who we have this year in those roles. Chourio starts in AAA and is likely the first call if there is a noteworthy injury. They'll stash 1 or 2 other guys in AAA to cover that injury if it's minor or too early in the season or if Jackson is struggling a bit out of the gate. Perfect world all those guys hit, and probably Mitchell get dealt midseason for something else shiny and we enjoy the greatest Brewer OF of all time (oops sorry thought it was the optimism thread). Imperfect world you still have a number of those players hitting well, and playing great defense while covering more ABs with the 4th OF then you'd like.

[sveumrules]

53 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

My worry is this: Choruio's K/BB ratio is slightly worse than Keston Hiura's was in his career prior to his 2019 call-up.  

When Keston Hiura was 19 he had an 18.1 K% for UC-Irvine in the Big West conference.

Chourio has a 19.6 K% as a 19 year old for Biloxi in the AA Southern League against players 4.7 years his senior. 

[Joseph Zarr]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

When Keston Hiura was 19 he had an 18.1 K% for UC-Irvine in the Big West conference.

Chourio has a 19.6 K% as a 19 year old for Biloxi in the AA Southern League against players 4.7 years his senior. 

[wibadgers23]

Southern League ranks after tonight:

Homeruns (T-4th)

RBI’s (2nd)

Runs (4th)

Hits (1st)

Doubles (T-6th)

SB (4th)

Batting Average (12th)

[BrewerFan]

On 7/27/2023 at 11:49 AM, clancyphile said:

I think Chourio is going to be very good at the very least.

I just think the Crew is in a position to be calm, let him develop his OBP skills in Nashville for 2024, maybe even 2025, and they'd still get wonderful production out of him. He doesn't have to be added to the 40-man until after the 2024 season.

See what a full season or two of Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer looks like in Milwaukee, then have Chourio come up in 2025 (or 2026), and you not only get him, but the return from dealing one of the other three (or you move one to 1B and have Yelich DH).

Yophery Rodriguez has a better chance to make his debut in 2026 than Chourio does at it stands.

There is absolutely zero reason to just put hm on ice for two full seasons at AAA.

This would be akin to the O's keeping 

Adley Rutschman, Gunnar, Mayo, Westburg...etc...all in AAA just to try and line them up so they're all together and maximizing their value to the team.

I also cannot imagine how poorly that'd play in recruiting the top Latin American players to sign with us. Someone, in a discussion about the draft, speculated the Brewers likely have a good reputation for prospects development. Imagine how put off players would be if they knew we had an MLB ready player at 20 years old and just had him sit in AAA for an EXTRA 2 years that we didn't need to so they could....get more of his prime?

The plate discipline will come. He's 19. He'd likely be oru 3rd best hitter right now. 2026 is just silly based on where we're at right now.

[wibadgers23]

I wonder if the Brewers are having internal discussions on whether to promote Chourio to AAA or if they’ve already made the decision to have him play out the year in Biloxi? I’m sure his age is about the only thing still keeping him in AA at this point. Still not walking a ton but his strikeout rate has greatly improved and all of his other numbers rank amongst the best in the Southern League.

[brooks_quichenick]

20 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

I wonder if the Brewers are having internal discussions on whether to promote Chourio to AAA or if they’ve already made the decision to have him play out the year in Biloxi? I’m sure his age is about the only thing still keeping him in AA at this point. Still not walking a ton but his strikeout rate has greatly improved and all of his other numbers rank amongst the best in the Southern League.

Related, possibly:

 

[wibadgers23]

6 minutes ago, brooks_quichenick said:

Related, possibly:

 

Yeah just saw that. Chourio was the first thing that popped into my head as well.

[BrewerFan]

8 hours ago, wibadgers23 said:

I wonder if the Brewers are having internal discussions on whether to promote Chourio to AAA or if they’ve already made the decision to have him play out the year in Biloxi? I’m sure his age is about the only thing still keeping him in AA at this point. Still not walking a ton but his strikeout rate has greatly improved and all of his other numbers rank amongst the best in the Southern League.

I guess my view is antiquated. I thought you wanted a full year in AA for the elite prospects, but after they moved Black up and then everyone else at AAA last year(Mitchell, Wiemer, Frelick)...that's just not the norm.

And nothing is the norm for Chourio. What do we do when he hits .350/.410/.700 at AAA though? Gonna be hard to leave him down until June next year!

[Harold Hutchison]

8 hours ago, wibadgers23 said:

Yeah just saw that. Chourio was the first thing that popped into my head as well.

Or Quero... Nashville's been using three catchers a lot this year.

[Jake McKibbin]

Fangraphs rankings are very strange (unsure when they were updated, but it is after the draft as they have Skenes in there)

But they've got James Wood who has a lesser WRC+ to Chourio this season in AA with a 33.2% strikeout rate and doesn't play Chourio's premium defense ranked third

And Jackson Merrill, a good shortstop with a 33.2% strikeout rate in AA ranked second and again a lesser WRC+ to Chourio

Jackson Holliday is an absolute beast mind, remember the thought that picking him was a budget saver with the first choice ahead of Druw Jones (who to be fair is injured)

[CheeseheadInQC]

3 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Fangraphs rankings are very strange (unsure when they were updated, but it is after the draft as they have Skenes in there)

But they've got James Wood who has a lesser WRC+ to Chourio this season in AA with a 33.2% strikeout rate and doesn't play Chourio's premium defense ranked third

And Jackson Merrill, a good shortstop with a 33.2% strikeout rate in AA ranked second and again a lesser WRC+ to Chourio

Jackson Holliday is an absolute beast mind, remember the thought that picking him was a budget saver with the first choice ahead of Druw Jones (who to be fair is injured)

I think they might have just added the draft picks in without reordering the rest.

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

I think they might have just added the draft picks in without reordering the rest.

Think they made some adjustments to some players (Ethan Salas) but yeah looking at the Brewers prospect list it does not appear to be updated at all.

[wibadgers23]

 

[brewcrewdue80]

On 8/7/2023 at 12:12 PM, wibadgers23 said:

I wonder if the Brewers are having internal discussions on whether to promote Chourio to AAA or if they’ve already made the decision to have him play out the year in Biloxi? I’m sure his age is about the only thing still keeping him in AA at this point. Still not walking a ton but his strikeout rate has greatly improved and all of his other numbers rank amongst the best in the Southern League.

So Chourio up to at least 0-18 streak at the moment. The promoted Black who actually had a down July vs the months prior. Chourio has a player of the month and is kept down. Wrong of them to hold him down. Now you see the end result. So what does Chourio have to do for a promotion? His mind is wondering. Guess having a poor month will equal promotion. It certainly wasn't the POTM production.  

Big mistake imo, I mean he'll overcome it and still be great, just what a poor move when he Aced an exam and you kept him back in the same grade.

[Team Canada]

33 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

So Chourio up to at least 0-18 streak at the moment. The promoted Black who actually had a down July vs the months prior. Chourio has a player of the month and is kept down. Wrong of them to hold him down. Now you see the end result. So what does Chourio have to do for a promotion? His mind is wondering. Guess having a poor month will equal promotion. It certainly wasn't the POTM production.  

Big mistake imo, I mean he'll overcome it and still be great, just what a poor move when he Aced an exam and you kept him back in the same grade.

Boy you're making a huge leap that somehow his lack of a promotion is causing him to go 0-18.

[Playing Catch]

Purely looking at stats, I suspect that Chourio has been taking feedback all season about how to improve his swing/approach, not to mention defense, baserunning, locker room presence, media familiarity, making adult decisions, English, etc.

I have no doubt that he was hoping for/expecting a promotion, but I'd bet he's still swimming with plenty of ways to mature and improve before inevitably being promoted to MLB.

I suspect the Brewers will strike the right balance between challenging the future face-of-the-franchise, as well as trying to give him a "soft" landing in the heart of the big-league order, not to mention planning for service time and roster implications of his move.

With this said, if Monte Harrison is the guy keeping the AAA roster spot, I certainly hope the Brewers promote him this season, if for no other reason than to let him acclimate to living/working in Nashville. But there is no rush, unless the team feels that he needs to be on the playoff roster. Although if Mitchell returns, that probably won't happen.

[wibadgers23]

It has to be Chourio’s age and his age alone that is still keeping him in AA at this point. To be honest, I was surprised he didn’t get promoted to Nashville around the same time Black was promoted. I wonder if they are content leaving him in Biloxi to finish out the season. Maybe he plays that final week in AAA after Biloxi’s season ends.

[Jim Goulart]

1 hour ago, wibadgers23 said:

It has to be Chourio’s age and his age alone that is still keeping him in AA at this point. To be honest, I was surprised he didn’t get promoted to Nashville around the same time Black was promoted. I wonder if they are content leaving him in Biloxi to finish out the season. Maybe he plays that final week in AAA after Biloxi’s season ends.

Don't overlook that Biloxi is fighting for a playoff spot, it'd be nice for Chourio to participate with all the teammates he's spent 2023 with.

[wiguy94]

15 minutes ago, Mass Haas said:

Don't overlook that Biloxi is fighting for a playoff spot, it'd be nice for Chourio to participate with all the teammates he's spent 2023 with.

Nashville has actually worked there way into a race for a playoff spot as well. Only 2 games back of the 2nd half IL lead at this point.

[Jake McKibbin]

One other thing is the ABS system in the international league has resulted in a smaller strike zone apparently.

For a player who you want to develop skills of strike zone discipline, AA would be a better place to do this. I saw his first AB last night and the raw power there is truly something to behold